A statistical look at the Lions, Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Spartans and Wolverines
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
End post. The Sox won. Lets take care of business and pound him like we should.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
- 8 K's, 7 ground ball outs and only 2 fly ball outs. Rick Porcello faltered in the 6th inning like a young pitcher is prone to do, but the potential he flashed tonight is enough to forget it. He was simply masterful for 5 innings and mowed down the Mariners lineup. Another good sign... he was still throwing 92+ in the 6th inning. Once his velocity has gone down in the past, he rarely recovered that strength. Bottom line, if Porcello develops into a high K man while staying an extreme ground ball pitcher then we will be looking at something incredible special in a few years. This kid is good.
- Ryan Perry was masterful as well. He worked us out of the jam in the 6th with the bases loaded and struck out the side in the 7th. His slider has been deadly since his return from Toledo.
- Bobby Seay was off all night and definitely did not deserve the win. The hit Ichiro got off him was just sick, but falling behind roughly every batter is not a recipe for success.
- Might as well talk about Rodney. Truly an impressive display against Lopez and he got the job done again. Only 1 blown save and we are past the middle of August. I never, ever would have thought that was possible at the beginning of the year.
- Offensively, we were going against King Felix Hernandez. Good luck with that. After he departed, we tore Lowe to shreds. Avila got a HR and Cabrera got the go ahead RBI. We should mash tomorrow against Snell.
- As for Huff's debut... 1 hit on 4 tries, and it was a missile. Obviously, it is too early to comment on his production with us, yet.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Hochevar has an above average K/BB ratio of 2.54, a GB/FB ratio of 1.33 and a FIP of 4.73 that is inflated by a HR/FB ratio of 14.1%. Assuming that regresses, and his strand rate of 65.5% creaps up to league average, then his ERA should drop the rest of this season. Essentially, he has a lot of talent and he has pitched better than his ERA would suggest. Still, he has not pitched anywhere near like he has been expected too.
He is basically a 3 pitch pitcher with a fastball, curve, and slider. According to Fan Graphs, his slider has been the only plus pitch that he has had this season. Looking at his splits, right handed batters hit slightly better against him. They have an OPS of .838 off him and lefties hit for an OPS of .747. All in all, not a big difference so it will be interesting to see how Leyland sets the lineup tomorrow. One extremely positive thing for us is that Hochevar has been brutal on the road. He has a 7.34 ERA in 6 starts on the road. Could Comerica Park signal some trouble for him?
It is a small sample size but a couple of our hitters have had success off him in the past. Miguel Cabrera, in particular, has owned Hochevar. He has gone 5 for 6 off him for an OPS of 1.833. Marcus Thames has hit a HR off him and Grandy has 2 hits and 2 walks off him in 6 plate appearances.
Friday, August 14, 2009
-Courtesy of Brooks Baseball, that is the strikezone plot for Jarrod Washburn tonight. An overwhelming majority of his pitches were either roughly in the middle of the plate or down in the zone. Washburn is a "pitch to contact" pitcher and he has to be able to keep the ball low and away and hit those spots in order to induce lazy fly balls or ground balls. He did it tonight and will need to continue to do that during his tenure here.
-As Jimmy Leyland said in the post-game presser, this was a perfect baseball game. Great defense, great pitching by Washburn and Lyon and a HR to win it. And, despite our lack of hits, we had a good approach at the plate tonight. We induced 4 walks off Zack Greinke even though his stuff was good most of the night. Some more thoughts...
-In the last 30 days, here are some offensive totals for certain players on our club...
Inge has a .533 OPS and .248 wOBA
Laird has a .516 OPS and .234 wOBA
Everett has a .354 OPS, and .159 wOBA
-on the other hand...
Ordonez has a .881 OPS and .378 wOBA
-It did not really matter tonight as Inge was the one who got the big hit, but this is a sampling on why our offense has been so putrid lately and on the road. Everett and Laird are simply terrible offensive players and the injury that has been bothering Inge has reduced him to a negative player since the All Star break.
-Back to back gems from Verlander and Washburn certainly will help an anemic offense. The Royals have an even worse offense and Jackson has a chance to redeem himself after a poor start last time out.
Monday, August 10, 2009
This season, he has been better but is still a disappointment in what has become an incredibly disappointing starting rotation for the Red Sox. He has a 5.20 ERA that is fairly representative of his play. He has a below average FIP of 4.58, a xFIP of 5.01, 5.06 tRA and 5.18 tRA*. Putting all of these numbers in context, Penny has been a below average pitcher this season and the predictive stats are not high on him reclaiming old glory anytime soon.
Penny has a 2.14 K/BB ratio that is slightly above average but he has mysteriously lost his ability to get ground balls at the same rate that he used too. For his career, Penny has a GB/FB ratio of 1.29. This season, though, his GB/FB ratio is 0.94. This has occurred during the same year that his fastball velocity is actually the highest of his career.
He is a 3 pitch pitcher this season. He throws his fastball roughly 73% of the time, his curveball 19% of his pitches and his split finger fastball roughly 8% of the time. In past years, he also used his changeup but he has since gone away from that and used his split finger in place of the changeup (hello, Jeremy Bonderman). According to Fan Graphs, his curveball has been dreadful this year and is -15.2 runs below average.
Penny's splits this year are nearly identical. Right handed batters hit for an OPS of .833 against him and lefties hit for an OPS of .812 off him. Also, in 3 of his last 4 starts, Penny has allowed at least 5 runs. So, he has struggled recently.
As for today's game, most guys on our team have not faced off against Penny too often. Polanco has 22 AB's and a .917 OPS against him, and Miggy has 11 AB's and a 1.545 OPS off him. Other than that, no one on the team has more than 7 AB's against him, and you really cannot gather too much from small sample sizes. Considering right handed hitters and lefties have hit Penny virtually equally as well this year, it will be interesting to see how Leyland will set his lineup. Laird is expected to play, and I would think that Everett would get the call over Santiago. Does Guillen DH? Is Maggs in RF, again? How about Thames, Raburn and Thomas?
Game time is at 7:10 on ESPN. Edwin Jackson is on the mound tonight and looking to build off his last start against Baltimore.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Scott Baker, though, is legit and his 4.59 ERA is worse than it should be. He has a 4.11 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 3.82 tRA, and a 3.93 K/BB ratio that is good for 4th in the AL behind Verlander, Halladay and Greinke. That is some pretty good company.
Baker is a fly ball pitcher with a 0.76 GB/FB ratio this season and that identical GB/FB ratio for his career. Partly b/c of that, he will allow some long balls. He has a 1.41 HR/9 ratio. As alluded to above, though, he will not walk many batters. A 1.91 BB/9 ratio is very, very good.
Baker incorporates all 4 of his pitches into his starts. He features a fastball that averages 91 MPH, and a good slider that comes in at 82 MPH. His curve and changup are used much less frequently and those are actually his two worst pitches according to Fan Graphs. Interstingly enough, though, Baker threw his changeup and slider 21 times apiece in his last start against us this season. On the other hand, he never even threw a curveball. It will be interesting to see if that same game plan is in place against us this time around.
He has reverse splits on the year as right handed batters hit much better off him than lefties do. The OBP is nearly identical but right handers have a .508 slugging percentage against him and lefties only have a slugging percentage of .348 off him.
Baker is coming in on a bit of a hot streak. In his last 4 starts combined, he has only allowed 4 ER. Also going for him is the fact that his ERA is a run and a half lower on the road than it is at home. Going for us, though, is that a number of our batters have some real good success against him. Thames, Guillen and Ordonez all have at least 18 PA's against him and all 3 of them have an OPS above 1.000 against him. Grandy has a .912 OPS against him in 37 career AB's. At least 3 of those guys should be in the lineup tomorrow. Inge and Polanco, though, have been brutal against Baker in their career. Each have at least 25 PA's against him and an OPS below .430 against him. So, we have been a little hit or miss against him with certain parts of our lineup.
In Baker's last start against us, he allowed 5 ER and 8 base runners in 6 innings of work during a 6-5 Twins victory on May 14th. I'll gladly take the 5 ER from him again, and hope that Jarrod Washburn is a little sharper in his second start for us.
1. It seemed that JV was way off tonight. His fastball, especially, appeared to be a pitch the Twins dug in on tonight.
2. The Twins ran on Grandy twice on judgment calls from the 3rd base coach. That tells you what the scouting report on Grandy's arm is. And Fan Graphs agrees. It is slightly below average this season.
3. Nick Punto was especially impressive to me tonight. He has been a great defender his whole career, but only slightly above average this season according to UZR. It was only one game but he passed the eye test for me. He had real good instincts at 3rd and seemed light on his feet.
4. We should have scored on Grandy's bloop hit (I didn't know if Everett or Lamont was to blame for that b/c I just focused on the ball dropping in) and we loaded the bases one other time. So, with some luck, we could have scored a couple runs off Pavano. Still, 4 straight starts like that against us is hard to deal with.
5. I've been calling for Simons to come up since mid June. They've already tried Dolsi, Fien and Lambert. I have to think he might be next. Maybe DD will come out of left field and promote a guy like Weinhardt. I doubt it but I also didn't think Avila would see any time this season.
Oh well. I said coming into this home stand that we needed to take 5 of 7. Thus far, we have taken 4 of 6. Take the series tomorrow and this forgettable game can be forgotten.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
"The Detroit Red Wings are bringing back a familiar face.-More to come on him and Eaves and where this puts us for next season in a few.
The team signed free agent forward Jason Williams to a one-year contract on Thursday.
Williams, 28, originally was signed by Detroit in 2000, but traded in 2007 as part of the Kyle Calder deal. In 233 games with the Red Wings, he had 49 goals and 67 assists. His best season with Detroit came in '05-06, when he set career highs with 21 goals, 37 assists and 58 points.
Williams (5-foot-11, 185 pounds) has solid offensive skills and can play the point on the power play.
Williams spent last season with the Atlanta Thrashers and Columbus Blue Jackets, and finished with 19 goals and 28 assists.
In 376 career NHL games, Williams has 205 points (85 goals, 120 assists).
He also played 128 games for the Cincinnati Mighty Ducks of the American Hockey League in '00-01 and '01-02 under the direction of current Red Wings coach Mike Babcock."
That was Jackson's stat line before the 9th when he allowed a 2 run blast to Adam Jones. Regardless, this was a fantastic start for Jackson and you can hardly fault Leyland for letting him try to go the distance. His game score (a stat developed by Bill James) was a 74. Based on that, this would be his 3rd best start of the year, behind his 8 inning, 0 ER performance against Baltimore on May 31st and his stingy complete game against the Angels on June 6. After a rough outing against the Indians when he only lasted 4 innings, allowed 9 base runners and 3 runs, this was a much needed start for him.
It was a fairly good mix for Jackson as he K'd 8 batters, induced 9 ground ball outs and 10 fly ball outs. He flirted with a high pitch count for awhile but a 8 pitch inning in the 7th and a 7 pitch inning in the 8th has a way of alleviating that concern. And, you have to love his pitch speed graph courtesy of Brooks Baseball...
As Leyland likes to say, he is a horse. There is no noticeable drop off as the innings pile up in a game and that is really, really good to see.
- Our offense was the victim of a lot of bad luck yesterday. Adam Everett had several good at bats and swings before finally getting a single late in the game. Magglio had 3 great swings on the ball but one of them ended up going for a double play. Granderson hit the ball hard, Polanco hit a lined shot to the 2nd baseman in one inning, etc. We deserved more runs off Guthrie and more than 4 runs for the game. Oh well. We will see if that performance can continue today.
- It was nice to see Maggs look good against a right handed pitcher. His HR off Guthrie might have been the best hit he has had all year. But, I am not proclaiming him back. He had good career numbers entering the day against Guthrie (4 for 7 with 2 doubles) and he has failed far too often against right handed pitchers for him to see many more of them the rest of this year.
- Rodney did allow 2 baserunners but his stuff was pretty filthy and I had no problems with him walking Luke Scott. He continues to be a very good closer for us this season.
- We needed to win this series and we are 1 win away from doing that. 2 down. Now, lets take the afternoon game today and get this home stand started off right.
Hernandez is 6'3" 215 lb right handed pitcher who is a rookie at the age of 24. This season he has a 3.28 ERA and has gone 5 innings or more in all but two of his 8 starts. In the minors, Hernandez was a huge strikeout pitcher with K/9 totals of 9.54, 10.40 and 10.60 in the past 3 minor league seasons.
By painting that good picture of Hernandez, I think it is time to bring him down to Earth a little bit. While he did strikeout a bunch of batters in the minors, he has just a 4.93 K/9 ratio in the big leagues. Combine that with a 3.47 BB/9 ratio and his K/BB ratio of 1.42 leaves much to be desired. So too do his other peripheral numbers and/or predictive stats. He has a 4.71 FIP (roughly a run and a half higher than his ERA) and even that is deflated by an unsustainable HR/FB ratio of just 6.8%. Thus, his xFIP of 5.86 . Hernandez also has a tRA of 5.05 (noticing a trend here). Without crunching the numbers, he has to have one of the most deceiving ERA's in all of baseball. A lot of that is helped out by a LOB % of 84.9. History would suggest that that is in no way sustainable.
Despite a HR/9 ratio of just 1.09, Hernandez has been an extreme fly ball pitcher. His GB/FB ratio is 0.55. Hernandez is basically a 3 pitch pitcher with a 93 MPH fastball, 78 MPH slider and 84-945 MPH changeup. Thus far on the year, Fan Graphs tells us that his fastball has been his only plus pitch. His splits are virtually identical. Given the small sample size, I'm not sure how much to read into that. But, lefties hit for an OPS of .745 off him and right handed batters hit for an OPS of .786 off him.
Hernandez made a start against us on May 28th (his first big league start... ever). Somehow, he managed to only allow 1 ER. In 5.2 IP, he allowed 5 hits and 4 BB. The Orioles won that game 5-1. Given the small sample size, I would not read too much into that one start against us. But, Grandy did go 2 for 2 with a BB against him. Clete Thomas and Maggs also had hits off him. Inge drew a walk and Thomas did, as well.
As for today... as always, it is hard to say with this offense. We are a league average offense against flyball pitchers with a OPS+ of 100. When we face a pitcher for a second time, our OPS+ is just 91. On the other hand, Cabrera, Thames, Inge, Granderson and Polanco are all plus hitters when facing a flyball pitcher. Given that, and the predictive stats that suggest that he has actually not pitched well this season, he could be due for a huge fall today.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Guthrie is a 6'1" 196 lb right handed pitcher who has been a part of the Orioles and Indians organizations during his career. In the previous two years, he had posted an ERA of 3.70 and 3.63, respectively. This year, however, he has fallen off the mat a little bit with a 5.37 ERA and the peripheral numbers that suggest that his ERA is no fluke.
Guthrie also has a 5.77 FIP, a .277 BABIP, a LOB % of 69.5, 5.60 tRA, and a 5.36 xFIP. Looking at all of these numbers and putting them into their proper context, there is really nothing to suggest that Guthrie has been the recipient of bad luck. His LOB % is slightly low but so is his BABIP. Guthrie has just not been a good pitcher this year.
Guthrie has a 5.37 K/9 ratio and a 2.94 BB/9 ratio. So, he strikes out fewer batters than the average pitcher will and walks fewer, as well. He has been a fly ball pitcher this year with a 0.80 GB/FB ratio.
Given his lack of strikeouts one might expect that Guthrie is a soft tosser. Instead, he will come at batters with a 93 MPH fastball, 84 MPH slider and 85 MPH changeup. Historically, his fastball and slider have been plus pitches. This year, though, Fan Graphs tells us that his slider has been his only plus pitch.
Guthrie has traditional splits and lefties have mashed him this year to the tune of a .922 OPS. So, we should see Guillen, Thomas and Granderson return to the starting lineup today. He also has a 6.39 ERA on the road this season, so that is another plus for us. So too is the fact that both Grandy and Inge have 8 or more plate appearances against him and have an OPS at 1.000 or higher.
In summary, Guthrie has an ERA that is nearly 2 runs above what he has posted in previous years, and his peripheral numbers suggest that is no fluke. In addition, he has been terrible on the road this year, lefties have crushed him and Grandy and Inge have had a lot of success against him. However, he probably still possesses the stuff that he held in previous years. Assuming that is the case, we just have to hope that he does not have a turn-back-the clock game tonight.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
-More to come later. Good signing, though. High reward-type player if it all clicks.
"The Detroit Red Wings announced today that the club has signed free agent forward Patrick Eaves to a one-year contract. In accordance with team policy, additional terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Originally a first round pick (29th overall) of the Ottawa Senators in the 2003 National Hockey League Entry Draft, Eaves has played in 242 career games with the Senators and the Carolina Hurricanes. He scored 20 goals in just 58 games in 2005-06, his rookie season in the NHL. Eaves followed his impressive debut with career highs in assists (18) and points (32) in 2006-07."
- Justin Verlander channeled his inner Jeremy Bonderman in the first inning and was blasted for 5 ER. Then, he went into total shutdown mode and did not allow another ER the rest of the game. A strikeout an inning and just 1 walk on the night is impressive, and despite the rough start, this has to be considered one of JV's best outings. The Verlander in 06, 07 and 08 would probably not have bounced back from that rough first inning. What he did after that first inning just shows you how much he has improved this season.
- Miguel Cabrera has the talent to really carry this team during the stretch run like Manny Ramirez did last year for LA, and Justin Morneau did for the Twins in 2006. The game-tying HR, a great defensive play that robbed Tigers killer Luke Scott of a hit, and a double that knocked in 2 runners is a heck of a start.
- Clete Thomas is my hero.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
This year, he has returned to being at least a respectable back of the rotation starter. He has a 5.66 ERA, but he has peripheral numbers that suggest his ERA should decline as the year goes on. He does allow a .303 batting average against but his FIP of 4.36 comes with a real high BABIP of .335 and a criminally low LOB % of just 63.2%. His K/BB rate of 3.82 is outstanding. In other words, do not just look at his ERA when evaluating his pitching this year. Even with his drop in velocity in recent years, his peripheral numbers would suggest that he has rebounded nicely from the injuries. He could be a guy that Jeremy Bonderman could look to and mirror his style.
Pavano is a three pitch pitcher with a fastball, change, and slider. Both his slider and change have been plus pitches this year. Pavano has reverse splits this year with right handers hitting for a better OPS than lefties do against him. Ordonez, Inge and Everett all have an OPS above .800 against him, and both Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn had good games against him earlier this year. It will be interesting to see what Leyland does today with Ordonez. With the reverse splits and decent career numbers, Maggs could potentially get the call.
Pavano has already face us twice this year and both times he faced off against Armando Galaragga. Both results were the same. Pavano pitched 7 innings in one start and 7.1 in the other while only allowing 2 ER in each of the two starts. He also has yet to issue a walk against us this year in 14.1 IP. After losing both of his last starts against us by one run, one would think that the third time would be the charm today for Armando Galaragga and the Tigers. Right?
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Sowers is a 6'1" 180 lb lefty with a 5.15 ERA and the peripheral numbers that suggest that his ERA is no fluke. He has a 4.77 FIP and a rather low LOB % of 67.7. On the one hand, that would suggest that his ERA might come down some. On the other hand, his xFIP is 5.27 and his tRA is 4.95. His ERA might come down a little, but he is no world beater. At best, he is a serviceable back of the rotation starter, and I am not a big fan of his "stuff."
Sowers has a K/9 ratio of 4.45 (well below average) and a BB/9 ratio of 3.76 (slightly above average). Put the two together and a K/BB ratio of 1.19 leaves much to be desired. His WHIP and opp. batting average are also above league averages.
Sowers has a 1.07 GB/FB ratio, so we should see a mixture of groundballs and flyballs. He also is the type of pitcher that we have struggled with at times this season. While he is a lefty and that is a good matchup for us, we have just an OPS+ of 96 against FB/GB pitchers and an OPS+ of 93 against finesse pitchers. This finesse lefty is exclusively a 3 pitch pitcher. Sowers comes at hitters with a 88 MPH fastball-type pitch nearly 75% of the time. He also relies on a slider and changeup. According to Fan Graphs, his slider is his best pitch this season, and even that pitch is just slightly above 0 runs saved.
As for what we should expect tonight... we should see a lot of contact made on his pitches. He does not strike out a lot, and opposing batters connect on 87% of his pitches (the average is a little below 81%). He also has traditional splits as right handed batters fare better against him than lefties do. So, we should see Maggs, Thames, Everett and Raburn in the lineup today. Something that does not go in our favor is that Sowers has been a much better pitcher at home this season. He has a 4.38 ERA at home and a 6.18 ERA on the road. On the other hand, we have fared very well against him in the past. In his previous 5 starts against us, he has a 6.66 ERA. Granderson (surprisingly?), Thames and Cabrera all have 8+ at bats against him and an OPS above 1.000. Ordonez, for whatever reason, is just 1 for 8 against him and has a .425 OPS.
In summary, Sowers is a below league average starting pitcher who is a soft tossing lefty that performs better at home. This season, we have struggled against some guys like that but the past success against him is encouraging. I am going to go against my better judgement and guess that we are going to give Porcello a lot of run support tonight.
Washburn is a dependable arm at the back of a rotation who will eat innings and give us a reasonable chance to win games. He also will throw strikes and he won't beat himself with walks. For a team that had two rookies in its rotation and Galaragga pitching like a #5 starter, there is a lot of value in that. We needed another starter and he was a good one to get.
But, I don't have any delusions about Washburn and I am not fooled by his ERA. And, I hope others are not. Essentially, he is an ideal #4 starter. His FIP has been roughly 4.7 the last 3 years and that is a number that most good #4 starters will post. This year, he is having a career season and could be a good #3 for us. But, he has an incredibly low BABIP and high LOB % and was helped out immensely by the best defensive outfield in baseball in Seattle and their spacious ballpark. His ERA makes him look like a top of the rotation starter, but he is not. Think Nate Robertson circa 2006. That is what Washburn is.
His FIP of 3.75 looks great but that should also rise when his HR/FB % rises. In fact, his xFIP is 4.66. Also, we will need Thomas and Granderson in the outfield on the days he pitches and they are going to need to cover some ground b/c he is a flyball pitcher. Washburn will definitely make our defense work.
On a side note, he has the best fastball-type pitch (split finger fastball) this year according to Fan Graphs. He is also on pace to post the best WAR of his career (if not, it will be a close second to his season in 2002). Even if/when he reverts back to his career norms as a 4.5 ERA-type pitcher, I really don't see anything wrong with that. He will eat a lot of innings for us and Leyland is going to lean on him a lot to make sure our bullpen stays rested for Galaragga and Porcello. I expect to see a lot of 100+ pitching performances for Washburn. But, I just hope that people are not expecting greatness from this guy. He has been a league average to slightly above league average starter most of his career. That is what he is and that is what should be expected of him during his brief 2 month stint with us.