Motor City Sports

Know thy enemy: Ian Snell

2009-08-19T17:20:00.004-04:00

By any stat this year, Ian Snell has been downright awful. You want traditional stats? He is 2-9 with a 5.84 ERA in his 18 starts. And, his peripheral numbers are also awful. His 1.09 K/BB ratio is one of the worst in MLB and so to is his 5.17 FIP and 6.06 tRA. On top of that, all 4 of his pitches this year have been negative pitches according to FanGraphs.

End post. The Sox won. Lets take care of business and pound him like we should.

Rick Porcello flashes untapped potential and Tigers pull off comeback

2009-08-18T23:19:00.003-04:00

8 K's, 7 ground ball outs and only 2 fly ball outs. Rick Porcello faltered in the 6th inning like a young pitcher is prone to do, but the potential he flashed tonight is enough to forget it. He was simply masterful for 5 innings and mowed down the Mariners lineup. Another good sign... he was still throwing 92+ in the 6th inning. Once his velocity has gone down in the past, he rarely recovered that strength. Bottom line, if Porcello develops into a high K man while staying an extreme ground ball pitcher then we will be looking at something incredible special in a few years. This kid is good.
Ryan Perry was masterful as well. He worked us out of the jam in the 6th with the bases loaded and struck out the side in the 7th. His slider has been deadly since his return from Toledo.
Bobby Seay was off all night and definitely did not deserve the win. The hit Ichiro got off him was just sick, but falling behind roughly every batter is not a recipe for success.
Might as well talk about Rodney. Truly an impressive display against Lopez and he got the job done again. Only 1 blown save and we are past the middle of August. I never, ever would have thought that was possible at the beginning of the year.
Offensively, we were going against King Felix Hernandez. Good luck with that. After he departed, we tore Lowe to shreds. Avila got a HR and Cabrera got the go ahead RBI. We should mash tomorrow against Snell.
As for Huff's debut... 1 hit on 4 tries, and it was a missile. Obviously, it is too early to comment on his production with us, yet.

Know thy enemy: Luke Hochevar

2009-08-15T00:37:00.002-04:00

A former 1st round pick with a huge signing bonus, Hochevar has not quite fulfilled those expectations, yet. He has had flashes of dominance, but the bouts of inconsistency has led to a 5.38 ERA in 15 starts.

Hochevar has an above average K/BB ratio of 2.54, a GB/FB ratio of 1.33 and a FIP of 4.73 that is inflated by a HR/FB ratio of 14.1%. Assuming that regresses, and his strand rate of 65.5% creaps up to league average, then his ERA should drop the rest of this season. Essentially, he has a lot of talent and he has pitched better than his ERA would suggest. Still, he has not pitched anywhere near like he has been expected too.

He is basically a 3 pitch pitcher with a fastball, curve, and slider. According to Fan Graphs, his slider has been the only plus pitch that he has had this season. Looking at his splits, right handed batters hit slightly better against him. They have an OPS of .838 off him and lefties hit for an OPS of .747. All in all, not a big difference so it will be interesting to see how Leyland sets the lineup tomorrow. One extremely positive thing for us is that Hochevar has been brutal on the road. He has a 7.34 ERA in 6 starts on the road. Could Comerica Park signal some trouble for him?

It is a small sample size but a couple of our hitters have had success off him in the past. Miguel Cabrera, in particular, has owned Hochevar. He has gone 5 for 6 off him for an OPS of 1.833. Marcus Thames has hit a HR off him and Grandy has 2 hits and 2 walks off him in 6 plate appearances.

Inge, Washburn win it for Tigers

2009-08-14T23:30:00.003-04:00

-Courtesy of Brooks Baseball, that is the strikezone plot for Jarrod Washburn tonight. An overwhelming majority of his pitches were either roughly in the middle of the plate or down in the zone. Washburn is a "pitch to contact" pitcher and he has to be able to keep the ball low and away and hit those spots in order to induce lazy fly balls or ground balls. He did it tonight and will need to continue to do that during his tenure here.

-As Jimmy Leyland said in the post-game presser, this was a perfect baseball game. Great defense, great pitching by Washburn and Lyon and a HR to win it. And, despite our lack of hits, we had a good approach at the plate tonight. We induced 4 walks off Zack Greinke even though his stuff was good most of the night. Some more thoughts...

-In the last 30 days, here are some offensive totals for certain players on our club...

Inge has a .533 OPS and .248 wOBA
Laird has a .516 OPS and .234 wOBA
Everett has a .354 OPS, and .159 wOBA

-on the other hand...
Ordonez has a .881 OPS and .378 wOBA

-It did not really matter tonight as Inge was the one who got the big hit, but this is a sampling on why our offense has been so putrid lately and on the road. Everett and Laird are simply terrible offensive players and the injury that has been bothering Inge has reduced him to a negative player since the All Star break.

-Back to back gems from Verlander and Washburn certainly will help an anemic offense. The Royals have an even worse offense and Jackson has a chance to redeem himself after a poor start last time out.

Know they enemy: Brad Penny

2009-08-10T13:57:00.003-04:00

Once upon a time, Brad Penny was a very good top of the rotation starter. From 2003 to 2007, he posted FIP's of 3.92, 3.59, 3.64, 3.89 and 3.63, respectively. That is remarkable consistency and good, solid seasons. The last 2 years? Not so much. Last year, he battled with injuries, had a terrible 1.21 K/BB ratio and a 5.27 FIP.

This season, he has been better but is still a disappointment in what has become an incredibly disappointing starting rotation for the Red Sox. He has a 5.20 ERA that is fairly representative of his play. He has a below average FIP of 4.58, a xFIP of 5.01, 5.06 tRA and 5.18 tRA*. Putting all of these numbers in context, Penny has been a below average pitcher this season and the predictive stats are not high on him reclaiming old glory anytime soon.

Penny has a 2.14 K/BB ratio that is slightly above average but he has mysteriously lost his ability to get ground balls at the same rate that he used too. For his career, Penny has a GB/FB ratio of 1.29. This season, though, his GB/FB ratio is 0.94. This has occurred during the same year that his fastball velocity is actually the highest of his career.

He is a 3 pitch pitcher this season. He throws his fastball roughly 73% of the time, his curveball 19% of his pitches and his split finger fastball roughly 8% of the time. In past years, he also used his changeup but he has since gone away from that and used his split finger in place of the changeup (hello, Jeremy Bonderman). According to Fan Graphs, his curveball has been dreadful this year and is -15.2 runs below average.

Penny's splits this year are nearly identical. Right handed batters hit for an OPS of .833 against him and lefties hit for an OPS of .812 off him. Also, in 3 of his last 4 starts, Penny has allowed at least 5 runs. So, he has struggled recently.

As for today's game, most guys on our team have not faced off against Penny too often. Polanco has 22 AB's and a .917 OPS against him, and Miggy has 11 AB's and a 1.545 OPS off him. Other than that, no one on the team has more than 7 AB's against him, and you really cannot gather too much from small sample sizes. Considering right handed hitters and lefties have hit Penny virtually equally as well this year, it will be interesting to see how Leyland will set his lineup. Laird is expected to play, and I would think that Everett would get the call over Santiago. Does Guillen DH? Is Maggs in RF, again? How about Thames, Raburn and Thomas?

Game time is at 7:10 on ESPN. Edwin Jackson is on the mound tonight and looking to build off his last start against Baltimore.

Know thy enemy: Scott Baker

2009-08-08T23:26:00.004-04:00

The Twins had a vastly overrated pitching staff heading into this season. Nick Blackburn is not as good as his ERA indicates, Liriano has struggled all year and Kevin Slowey is injured and done for the season. For the most part, the Twins have had one of the worst starting rotations in the AL.

Scott Baker, though, is legit and his 4.59 ERA is worse than it should be. He has a 4.11 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 3.82 tRA, and a 3.93 K/BB ratio that is good for 4th in the AL behind Verlander, Halladay and Greinke. That is some pretty good company.

Baker is a fly ball pitcher with a 0.76 GB/FB ratio this season and that identical GB/FB ratio for his career. Partly b/c of that, he will allow some long balls. He has a 1.41 HR/9 ratio. As alluded to above, though, he will not walk many batters. A 1.91 BB/9 ratio is very, very good.

Baker incorporates all 4 of his pitches into his starts. He features a fastball that averages 91 MPH, and a good slider that comes in at 82 MPH. His curve and changup are used much less frequently and those are actually his two worst pitches according to Fan Graphs. Interstingly enough, though, Baker threw his changeup and slider 21 times apiece in his last start against us this season. On the other hand, he never even threw a curveball. It will be interesting to see if that same game plan is in place against us this time around.

He has reverse splits on the year as right handed batters hit much better off him than lefties do. The OBP is nearly identical but right handers have a .508 slugging percentage against him and lefties only have a slugging percentage of .348 off him.

Baker is coming in on a bit of a hot streak. In his last 4 starts combined, he has only allowed 4 ER. Also going for him is the fact that his ERA is a run and a half lower on the road than it is at home. Going for us, though, is that a number of our batters have some real good success against him. Thames, Guillen and Ordonez all have at least 18 PA's against him and all 3 of them have an OPS above 1.000 against him. Grandy has a .912 OPS against him in 37 career AB's. At least 3 of those guys should be in the lineup tomorrow. Inge and Polanco, though, have been brutal against Baker in their career. Each have at least 25 PA's against him and an OPS below .430 against him. So, we have been a little hit or miss against him with certain parts of our lineup.

In Baker's last start against us, he allowed 5 ER and 8 base runners in 6 innings of work during a 6-5 Twins victory on May 14th. I'll gladly take the 5 ER from him again, and hope that Jarrod Washburn is a little sharper in his second start for us.

Carl Pavano hates the Tigers

2009-08-08T23:08:00.001-04:00

nothing to see here. Take the series tomorrow and we can forget about this game. Quick thoughts...

1. It seemed that JV was way off tonight. His fastball, especially, appeared to be a pitch the Twins dug in on tonight.
2. The Twins ran on Grandy twice on judgment calls from the 3rd base coach. That tells you what the scouting report on Grandy's arm is. And Fan Graphs agrees. It is slightly below average this season.
3. Nick Punto was especially impressive to me tonight. He has been a great defender his whole career, but only slightly above average this season according to UZR. It was only one game but he passed the eye test for me. He had real good instincts at 3rd and seemed light on his feet.
4. We should have scored on Grandy's bloop hit (I didn't know if Everett or Lamont was to blame for that b/c I just focused on the ball dropping in) and we loaded the bases one other time. So, with some luck, we could have scored a couple runs off Pavano. Still, 4 straight starts like that against us is hard to deal with.
5. I've been calling for Simons to come up since mid June. They've already tried Dolsi, Fien and Lambert. I have to think he might be next. Maybe DD will come out of left field and promote a guy like Weinhardt. I doubt it but I also didn't think Avila would see any time this season.

Oh well. I said coming into this home stand that we needed to take 5 of 7. Thus far, we have taken 4 of 6. Take the series tomorrow and this forgettable game can be forgotten.

Red Wings bring back Jason Williams

2009-08-06T11:36:00.001-04:00

Here is our replacement for Sammy.

"The Detroit Red Wings are bringing back a familiar face.
The team signed free agent forward Jason Williams to a one-year contract on Thursday.

Williams, 28, originally was signed by Detroit in 2000, but traded in 2007 as part of the Kyle Calder deal. In 233 games with the Red Wings, he had 49 goals and 67 assists. His best season with Detroit came in '05-06, when he set career highs with 21 goals, 37 assists and 58 points.

Williams (5-foot-11, 185 pounds) has solid offensive skills and can play the point on the power play.

Williams spent last season with the Atlanta Thrashers and Columbus Blue Jackets, and finished with 19 goals and 28 assists.

In 376 career NHL games, Williams has 205 points (85 goals, 120 assists).

He also played 128 games for the Cincinnati Mighty Ducks of the American Hockey League in '00-01 and '01-02 under the direction of current Red Wings coach Mike Babcock."

-More to come on him and Eaves and where this puts us for next season in a few.

Edwin Jackson dazzles again in win over Orioles

2009-08-06T10:16:00.002-04:00

8 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 2 BB and 8 K's.

That was Jackson's stat line before the 9th when he allowed a 2 run blast to Adam Jones. Regardless, this was a fantastic start for Jackson and you can hardly fault Leyland for letting him try to go the distance. His game score (a stat developed by Bill James) was a 74. Based on that, this would be his 3rd best start of the year, behind his 8 inning, 0 ER performance against Baltimore on May 31st and his stingy complete game against the Angels on June 6. After a rough outing against the Indians when he only lasted 4 innings, allowed 9 base runners and 3 runs, this was a much needed start for him.

It was a fairly good mix for Jackson as he K'd 8 batters, induced 9 ground ball outs and 10 fly ball outs. He flirted with a high pitch count for awhile but a 8 pitch inning in the 7th and a 7 pitch inning in the 8th has a way of alleviating that concern. And, you have to love his pitch speed graph courtesy of Brooks Baseball...

As Leyland likes to say, he is a horse. There is no noticeable drop off as the innings pile up in a game and that is really, really good to see.

Other thoughts...

Our offense was the victim of a lot of bad luck yesterday. Adam Everett had several good at bats and swings before finally getting a single late in the game. Magglio had 3 great swings on the ball but one of them ended up going for a double play. Granderson hit the ball hard, Polanco hit a lined shot to the 2nd baseman in one inning, etc. We deserved more runs off Guthrie and more than 4 runs for the game. Oh well. We will see if that performance can continue today.
It was nice to see Maggs look good against a right handed pitcher. His HR off Guthrie might have been the best hit he has had all year. But, I am not proclaiming him back. He had good career numbers entering the day against Guthrie (4 for 7 with 2 doubles) and he has failed far too often against right handed pitchers for him to see many more of them the rest of this year.
Rodney did allow 2 baserunners but his stuff was pretty filthy and I had no problems with him walking Luke Scott. He continues to be a very good closer for us this season.
We needed to win this series and we are 1 win away from doing that. 2 down. Now, lets take the afternoon game today and get this home stand started off right.

Know thy enemy: David Hernandez

2009-08-06T09:40:00.003-04:00

For the 2nd straight game, the Tigers are squaring off against a pitcher who at least has a couple of starts under his belt at the big league level. Of course, it is just 8 big league starts. Regardless, we can still get a somewhat accurate picture of David Hernandez from these starts...

Hernandez is 6'3" 215 lb right handed pitcher who is a rookie at the age of 24. This season he has a 3.28 ERA and has gone 5 innings or more in all but two of his 8 starts. In the minors, Hernandez was a huge strikeout pitcher with K/9 totals of 9.54, 10.40 and 10.60 in the past 3 minor league seasons.

By painting that good picture of Hernandez, I think it is time to bring him down to Earth a little bit. While he did strikeout a bunch of batters in the minors, he has just a 4.93 K/9 ratio in the big leagues. Combine that with a 3.47 BB/9 ratio and his K/BB ratio of 1.42 leaves much to be desired. So too do his other peripheral numbers and/or predictive stats. He has a 4.71 FIP (roughly a run and a half higher than his ERA) and even that is deflated by an unsustainable HR/FB ratio of just 6.8%. Thus, his xFIP of 5.86 . Hernandez also has a tRA of 5.05 (noticing a trend here). Without crunching the numbers, he has to have one of the most deceiving ERA's in all of baseball. A lot of that is helped out by a LOB % of 84.9. History would suggest that that is in no way sustainable.

Despite a HR/9 ratio of just 1.09, Hernandez has been an extreme fly ball pitcher. His GB/FB ratio is 0.55. Hernandez is basically a 3 pitch pitcher with a 93 MPH fastball, 78 MPH slider and 84-945 MPH changeup. Thus far on the year, Fan Graphs tells us that his fastball has been his only plus pitch. His splits are virtually identical. Given the small sample size, I'm not sure how much to read into that. But, lefties hit for an OPS of .745 off him and right handed batters hit for an OPS of .786 off him.

Hernandez made a start against us on May 28th (his first big league start... ever). Somehow, he managed to only allow 1 ER. In 5.2 IP, he allowed 5 hits and 4 BB. The Orioles won that game 5-1. Given the small sample size, I would not read too much into that one start against us. But, Grandy did go 2 for 2 with a BB against him. Clete Thomas and Maggs also had hits off him. Inge drew a walk and Thomas did, as well.

As for today... as always, it is hard to say with this offense. We are a league average offense against flyball pitchers with a OPS+ of 100. When we face a pitcher for a second time, our OPS+ is just 91. On the other hand, Cabrera, Thames, Inge, Granderson and Polanco are all plus hitters when facing a flyball pitcher. Given that, and the predictive stats that suggest that he has actually not pitched well this season, he could be due for a huge fall today.

Know thy enemy: Jeremy Guthrie

2009-08-05T10:07:00.003-04:00

Jeremy Guthrie is going for the Orioles tonight and is the first starting pitcher in this series that the Tigers will have seen before and/or have some information to go on from his time in the majors. So, I guess that is something to look forward too.

Guthrie is a 6'1" 196 lb right handed pitcher who has been a part of the Orioles and Indians organizations during his career. In the previous two years, he had posted an ERA of 3.70 and 3.63, respectively. This year, however, he has fallen off the mat a little bit with a 5.37 ERA and the peripheral numbers that suggest that his ERA is no fluke.

Guthrie also has a 5.77 FIP, a .277 BABIP, a LOB % of 69.5, 5.60 tRA, and a 5.36 xFIP. Looking at all of these numbers and putting them into their proper context, there is really nothing to suggest that Guthrie has been the recipient of bad luck. His LOB % is slightly low but so is his BABIP. Guthrie has just not been a good pitcher this year.

Guthrie has a 5.37 K/9 ratio and a 2.94 BB/9 ratio. So, he strikes out fewer batters than the average pitcher will and walks fewer, as well. He has been a fly ball pitcher this year with a 0.80 GB/FB ratio.

Given his lack of strikeouts one might expect that Guthrie is a soft tosser. Instead, he will come at batters with a 93 MPH fastball, 84 MPH slider and 85 MPH changeup. Historically, his fastball and slider have been plus pitches. This year, though, Fan Graphs tells us that his slider has been his only plus pitch.

Guthrie has traditional splits and lefties have mashed him this year to the tune of a .922 OPS. So, we should see Guillen, Thomas and Granderson return to the starting lineup today. He also has a 6.39 ERA on the road this season, so that is another plus for us. So too is the fact that both Grandy and Inge have 8 or more plate appearances against him and have an OPS at 1.000 or higher.

In summary, Guthrie has an ERA that is nearly 2 runs above what he has posted in previous years, and his peripheral numbers suggest that is no fluke. In addition, he has been terrible on the road this year, lefties have crushed him and Grandy and Inge have had a lot of success against him. However, he probably still possesses the stuff that he held in previous years. Assuming that is the case, we just have to hope that he does not have a turn-back-the clock game tonight.

Wings sign Patrick Eaves

2009-08-04T15:45:00.002-04:00

Well, the Wings finally signed a winger.

"The Detroit Red Wings announced today that the club has signed free agent forward Patrick Eaves to a one-year contract. In accordance with team policy, additional terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Originally a first round pick (29th overall) of the Ottawa Senators in the 2003 National Hockey League Entry Draft, Eaves has played in 242 career games with the Senators and the Carolina Hurricanes. He scored 20 goals in just 58 games in 2005-06, his rookie season in the NHL. Eaves followed his impressive debut with career highs in assists (18) and points (32) in 2006-07."

-More to come later. Good signing, though. High reward-type player if it all clicks.

Clete Thomas gets Tigers started off right on home stand

2009-08-04T00:24:00.002-04:00

Quick thoughts...

Justin Verlander channeled his inner Jeremy Bonderman in the first inning and was blasted for 5 ER. Then, he went into total shutdown mode and did not allow another ER the rest of the game. A strikeout an inning and just 1 walk on the night is impressive, and despite the rough start, this has to be considered one of JV's best outings. The Verlander in 06, 07 and 08 would probably not have bounced back from that rough first inning. What he did after that first inning just shows you how much he has improved this season.
Miguel Cabrera has the talent to really carry this team during the stretch run like Manny Ramirez did last year for LA, and Justin Morneau did for the Twins in 2006. The game-tying HR, a great defensive play that robbed Tigers killer Luke Scott of a hit, and a double that knocked in 2 runners is a heck of a start.
Clete Thomas is my hero.

Ideally, we take at least 5 of 7 on this home stand against the Orioles and Twins. 1 down. Celebrate tonight and get ready for tomorrow, boys.

Know thy enemy: Carl Pavano

2009-08-02T00:52:00.002-04:00

Carl Pavano is opposing us today. He was always a pitcher that interested me, especially after his great 2004 season with the Marlins and his great postseason work in 2003 on their run to the title. Unfortunately, his numerous injuries during his days with the Yankees robbed him of his prime.

This year, he has returned to being at least a respectable back of the rotation starter. He has a 5.66 ERA, but he has peripheral numbers that suggest his ERA should decline as the year goes on. He does allow a .303 batting average against but his FIP of 4.36 comes with a real high BABIP of .335 and a criminally low LOB % of just 63.2%. His K/BB rate of 3.82 is outstanding. In other words, do not just look at his ERA when evaluating his pitching this year. Even with his drop in velocity in recent years, his peripheral numbers would suggest that he has rebounded nicely from the injuries. He could be a guy that Jeremy Bonderman could look to and mirror his style.

Pavano is a three pitch pitcher with a fastball, change, and slider. Both his slider and change have been plus pitches this year. Pavano has reverse splits this year with right handers hitting for a better OPS than lefties do against him. Ordonez, Inge and Everett all have an OPS above .800 against him, and both Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn had good games against him earlier this year. It will be interesting to see what Leyland does today with Ordonez. With the reverse splits and decent career numbers, Maggs could potentially get the call.

Pavano has already face us twice this year and both times he faced off against Armando Galaragga. Both results were the same. Pavano pitched 7 innings in one start and 7.1 in the other while only allowing 2 ER in each of the two starts. He also has yet to issue a walk against us this year in 14.1 IP. After losing both of his last starts against us by one run, one would think that the third time would be the charm today for Armando Galaragga and the Tigers. Right?

Know thy enemy: Jeremy Sowers

2009-08-01T16:14:00.003-04:00

The Tigers are squaring off tonight against the man, the myth and the legend: Jeremy Sowers. Ok. Maybe he is a bottom of the rotation starter who we should have a good chance of mashing tonight. One or the other.

Sowers is a 6'1" 180 lb lefty with a 5.15 ERA and the peripheral numbers that suggest that his ERA is no fluke. He has a 4.77 FIP and a rather low LOB % of 67.7. On the one hand, that would suggest that his ERA might come down some. On the other hand, his xFIP is 5.27 and his tRA is 4.95. His ERA might come down a little, but he is no world beater. At best, he is a serviceable back of the rotation starter, and I am not a big fan of his "stuff."

Sowers has a K/9 ratio of 4.45 (well below average) and a BB/9 ratio of 3.76 (slightly above average). Put the two together and a K/BB ratio of 1.19 leaves much to be desired. His WHIP and opp. batting average are also above league averages.

Sowers has a 1.07 GB/FB ratio, so we should see a mixture of groundballs and flyballs. He also is the type of pitcher that we have struggled with at times this season. While he is a lefty and that is a good matchup for us, we have just an OPS+ of 96 against FB/GB pitchers and an OPS+ of 93 against finesse pitchers. This finesse lefty is exclusively a 3 pitch pitcher. Sowers comes at hitters with a 88 MPH fastball-type pitch nearly 75% of the time. He also relies on a slider and changeup. According to Fan Graphs, his slider is his best pitch this season, and even that pitch is just slightly above 0 runs saved.

As for what we should expect tonight... we should see a lot of contact made on his pitches. He does not strike out a lot, and opposing batters connect on 87% of his pitches (the average is a little below 81%). He also has traditional splits as right handed batters fare better against him than lefties do. So, we should see Maggs, Thames, Everett and Raburn in the lineup today. Something that does not go in our favor is that Sowers has been a much better pitcher at home this season. He has a 4.38 ERA at home and a 6.18 ERA on the road. On the other hand, we have fared very well against him in the past. In his previous 5 starts against us, he has a 6.66 ERA. Granderson (surprisingly?), Thames and Cabrera all have 8+ at bats against him and an OPS above 1.000. Ordonez, for whatever reason, is just 1 for 8 against him and has a .425 OPS.

In summary, Sowers is a below league average starting pitcher who is a soft tossing lefty that performs better at home. This season, we have struggled against some guys like that but the past success against him is encouraging. I am going to go against my better judgement and guess that we are going to give Porcello a lot of run support tonight.

An evaluation of Jarrod Washburn

2009-08-01T15:32:00.004-04:00

At the trade deadline, the Tigers acquired left hander Jarrod Washburn for Luke French and Mauricio Robles. Ok. We all know that. Now, lets evaluate Jarrod Washburn...

Washburn is a dependable arm at the back of a rotation who will eat innings and give us a reasonable chance to win games. He also will throw strikes and he won't beat himself with walks. For a team that had two rookies in its rotation and Galaragga pitching like a #5 starter, there is a lot of value in that. We needed another starter and he was a good one to get.

But, I don't have any delusions about Washburn and I am not fooled by his ERA. And, I hope others are not. Essentially, he is an ideal #4 starter. His FIP has been roughly 4.7 the last 3 years and that is a number that most good #4 starters will post. This year, he is having a career season and could be a good #3 for us. But, he has an incredibly low BABIP and high LOB % and was helped out immensely by the best defensive outfield in baseball in Seattle and their spacious ballpark. His ERA makes him look like a top of the rotation starter, but he is not. Think Nate Robertson circa 2006. That is what Washburn is.

His FIP of 3.75 looks great but that should also rise when his HR/FB % rises. In fact, his xFIP is 4.66. Also, we will need Thomas and Granderson in the outfield on the days he pitches and they are going to need to cover some ground b/c he is a flyball pitcher. Washburn will definitely make our defense work.

On a side note, he has the best fastball-type pitch (split finger fastball) this year according to Fan Graphs. He is also on pace to post the best WAR of his career (if not, it will be a close second to his season in 2002). Even if/when he reverts back to his career norms as a 4.5 ERA-type pitcher, I really don't see anything wrong with that. He will eat a lot of innings for us and Leyland is going to lean on him a lot to make sure our bullpen stays rested for Galaragga and Porcello. I expect to see a lot of 100+ pitching performances for Washburn. But, I just hope that people are not expecting greatness from this guy. He has been a league average to slightly above league average starter most of his career. That is what he is and that is what should be expected of him during his brief 2 month stint with us.

The rise of Justin Verlander

2009-07-30T23:47:00.007-04:00

With all of the talk centering around the Tigers turning down a deal for Roy Halladay, lets look at what our current staff ace has done this season...

Last year, Verlander was the talk of Detroit. But, it was for all of the wrong reasons. He ended the season with a 4.84 ERA, 17 losses and the most walks issued in his 3 year career. He had gone from the No-hitter and All Star golden boy to the fans whipping boy. Of course, those who looked at his peripheral numbers (like his 4.18 FIP) would have noticed that his numbers did not defer much from the season he had in 2006 when he was the talk of baseball, and won rookie of the year. Alas, more was expected of Verlander last year and he failed to deliver.

Flash forward to this season, though, and everything is turning up aces (pun intended). Verlander has the 4th best FIP in MLB at 2.71, the 2nd best K/9 ratio, 11th best K/BB, 10th best tRA, 7th best WPA, and his 5.1 WAR (maybe my favorite stat) is 4th best in the game. Basically, by nearly every advanced measure, Verlander has turned into a legit shutdown ace this season. He is without question one of the top 10 pitchers in the game and has been in the top 5 this season in the AL with the likes of Greinke, Halladay, Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez.

So, what has changed? Before this season, Verlander's career best FIP was 3.99 in 2007. That is generally reserved for good #2 starters (Edwin Jackson, for example, has a FIP of 3.89). Now, he has the 4th best FIP in the game. What caused such a resurgence? For one, Chuck Hernandez is gone. The days of trying to adjust Verlander's arm slot appears to be over and he seems to work well under new pitching coach, Rick Knapp. Knapp came to Detroit from the Minnesota Twins organization which prides itself on throwing strikes. That hardly seems like a revolutionary concept but considering that the Tigers had the 4th worst BB/9 ratio in MLB last year, then it became a much needed philosophy. At the time of the hire, it seemed like a perfect fit. Take a guy from an organization who rarely walks batters (lowest BB/9 ratio in MLB last year) and put him with flamethrowers who can strike out and walk the park. Then, with a little magic, the hope was that Knapp's influence would keep the K rates the same (or even better) and drastically cut down on the walks. If nothing else, the hire has been a match made in Heaven for Verlander. He has dropped his BB/9 ratio from 3.90 last season to 2.66 this season. Meanwhile, he has upped his K/9 ratio from 7.30 to 10.65. All told, his K/BB ratio has improved from 1.87 ( 64th last year among 88 qualified starters) to 4.00 this season.

Ok, so he has struck out more and walked less. He also has not had a pitching coach attempt to change the mechanics or arm slot angle of that golden arm of his. Surely, that cannot be it. And, it isn't. Last season, Verlander threw his fastball at an average of 93.6 MPH. This season, he has wowed the ladies with a fastball that averages 95.5 MPH. That 2 MPH increase in velocity and improved movement and location has led to a fastball that has saved 17.8 runs this season, according to Fan Graphs. Of the qualified pitchers, Verlander's fastball has been the 4th best fastball in MLB this season. In comparison, last year, Verlander had a fastball that saved just 0.4 runs.

Another change with Verlander has been the difference in his pitch selection compared to last season and his career norms. Verlander was always a plus curveball pitcher and it has been his second best pitch over his career. This year, he is throwing his curveball and fastball more than at any other point in his career. On the other hand, he is throwing his changeup just 8.5% of the time this season. That is a far cry from the changeup he elected to throw nearly 16 % of the time last season. In addition to that, Verlander is also throwing his slider now more than he ever has before. It is still nowhere near a plus pitch but the experimenting with a 4th pitch, an increased reliance on his deadly fastball and curveball and a reduced reliance on his changeup might be one of the telling points in his comeback season.

Looking at the plate discipline stats for the batters that Verlander has faced, the improvement he has made this season is even more telling. For one, batters are swinging at 27.8% of pitches outside the stike zone. That is a 3% increase from last season. Also, batters are swining at his pitches inside the strike zone less so than they have at any other point in his career. Thus, the ensuing stats are not surprising. A batters O-Contact % against Verlander (percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone) is down a full 10 % from last season. Batters are connecting on just 56% of those pitches. The opposing batters are also hitting pitches inside the strike zone less so then at any other point in Verlander's career. From Verlander's perspective, he is throwing 55.5 % of his pitches for strikes (just 50% last year), and his first strike % of 63.1 is a 5% increase of his total last year.

In summary, Verlander is/has ...

Striking more guys out
Walking fewer batters
Increased the velocity on his fastball by 2 MPH
Improved the location, command and movement on his fastball
Relied more heavily on his fastball and curveball while throwing half as many changeups
Throwing more strikes within the zone that batters are not swinging at
Inducing the most swing and misses of pitches outside of the strike zone of his career by a substantial margin.
Not being coached by Chuck Hernandez
Being guided by Rick Knapp
Awesome

All together, it accounts for the numbers that bear repeating: Verlander has the 4th best FIP in MLB at 2.71, the 2nd best K/9 ratio, 11th best K/BB, 10th best tRA, 7th best WPA, and the 4th best WAR. He has turned himself into maybe the rarest thing in baseball... a true, shutdown ace. Now, as fans, all we can do is sit back and enjoy the pleasure that is watching him pitch. The scary thing? He's only 26 and has another decade of terrorizing hitters left in him. Good luck, American League hitters.

Know the enemy: Vicente Padilla

2009-07-28T10:24:00.004-04:00

Vicente Padilla has the Swine flu and is pitching tonight. Obviously, it must not be an extreme case or else he would not be pitching. So, I wish him well with his health and on to the breakdown of his pitching performances this season...

Padilla is a 6'2" 220 pound right handed pitcher whose play has been fairly consistent since 2003. The 32 year old has had an FIP between 4.25 and 5.25 in every single season. This season has been no exception. He has a 4.67 ERA that is very representative of his abilities and a 4.48 FIP. Like Tommy Hunter last night, Padilla should not strike us out too much. Whether or not that will be the case remains to be seen. He has a K/9 ratio of just 4.86. His K/BB ratio of 1.33 leaves much to be desired. Based on the ERA, FIP and other peripheral numbers for the majority of his career and in this season, Padilla is essentially a #4 starter.

Padilla is a groundball pitcher with a 1.58 GB/FB ratio. He is also almost exclusively a fastball pitcher. He throws his 91-92 MPH fastball nearly 75% of the time. After that pitch, he throws a mixture of a slider and a curveball. As you might expect, his fastball is a plus pitch for him. Like Hunter, and as mentioned above, Padilla pitches to a lot of contact. Inside the strike zone, an opposing batter will make contact with his pitch nearly 92 % of the time. That is roughly 3% above league average. So, we should be putting the bat on the ball quite a bit tonight.

As for what to expect tonight...Padilla has traditional splits. Right handed batters only hit for an OPS of .601 against him. On the other hand, lefties hit for an OPS of .883 against him. Guillen, Grandy and Thomas should all be in the lineup tonight. Ramon Santiago is a plus fastball hitter and is also a lefty so he may see a spot in the lineup ahead of Adam Everett tonight. Also, in his last 7 starts, Padilla has gone at least 5 innings. However, he is prone to some bad outings. Two of his last 3 starts has seen him rocked for 5 ER. So, we may be catching him at the right time. B/c he is an extreme fastball pitcher, Miguel Cabrera should have a very favorable matchup. Brandon Inge, Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago are also plus fastball hitters, and Marcus Thames especially feasts on groundball pitchers. Overall, Padilla does not match up well with our offense. I hate to predict an offensive explosion tonight for us but the numbers indicate that that could be the case.

Tigers offense follows its leader into the ground against Rangers

2009-07-27T23:22:00.003-04:00

The Tigers lost tonight 5-2 to the Texas Rangers in the opening game of this 3 game series. Thoughts on the game follow...

In my pre game post, I should have made special note of the fact that we are an even worse offense on the road than we are at home. I correctly pointed out that Grandy should have a big night (a HR and two other singles) and he did. But, other stats are screaming at me right in the face and really cannot be ignored much longer. As a team, we have an OPS+ of 92 on the road (average is 100). At home, we have an OPS+ of 106. I guess I can take solace in the fact that we have more home games remaining than road games, but at some point our offense needs to kick it in high gear. Yes, even on the road.
Perhaps the one player who most personifies our troubles on the road is Miguel Cabrera. At home, Miggy rakes to the tune of a 1.147 OPS. On the road, he has an OPS of .766. Now, Comerica Park has turned into a bit of a hitters park, but that should not explain such a dramatic drop off for him on the road. Tonight, with the bases loaded and 2 outs in the 5th inning, Cabrera had another chance to deliver on the road. Instead, he swung at ball 4 twice and eventually struck out on a high fastball that should have made the score 2-0. After that AB, the game changed, the Texas hitters started teeing off on Galaragga and that was all she wrote. Obviously, the usual caveats apply. One cannot expect a player to deliver in every situation and it is important to not make too much of one at bat. However, at some point, Cabrera needs to stop being cut slack. In addition to his poor numbers on the road, he bats worse with runners on and with runners in scoring position then he does in other situations. Lee at Tigers Tales also wrote a great post the other day that summed up Cabrera's "clutch" numbers. In short, they are the worst on the team with a "clutch" rating of -1.36. He needs to pick it up. Plain and simple.
This will go down as one of our worst offensive performances of the year. Hunter came into the game with a lower K/9 ratio then the one Rick Porcello has posted this year. No matter. He still struck us out 6 times in 7 innings. His stuff was minimal at best and he even allowed Maggs to turn on a fastball for a double. Jim Leyland was not quick to salute him in the postgame show on FSN and this was not a game where one tips their cap to the opposing pitcher. Last night against Richard we were a little unlucky. I'm not sure what you call our performance tonight.
Galaragga went 7 innings, allowed 7 baserunners and 4 ER. He threw 61 strikes on 100 pitches and threw first pitch strikes to half of the 28 batters he faced. I felt that the Rangers hitters bailed him out several times in the first couple innings when they should have been more patient at the plate. Then, once they settled down, Galaragga came unglued in the 6th inning. Basically, it comes down to this for Armando: he is a #5 starter and an average one at that. He is durable, eats innings and gives us a reasonable chance to win. There is value in that, but we might need more than that with Porcello's recent struggles.
Ryan Perry was hit hard tonight for his first bad outing since he came back from Toledo. I won't read too much into that.. A couple more outings like that, though...
White Sox lost so we are still up by 2 games. Twins are now just down by 3 games.

It it Vincente Padilla against Luke French tomorrow night. Padilla has the Swine Flu and Texas kills finesse pitchers like French. That should make for an entertaining game.

The book on Tommy Hunter

2009-07-27T19:05:00.004-04:00

The Tigers are squaring off against Tommy Hunter tonight in Texas. Lets take a look at him in this preview post...

Hunter is a 6'3," 255 lb right hander who is technically a rookie (though, he did pitch some last season in Texas). In 5 starts this season, Hunter has a 2.17 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.21 tRA. So, on the surface, it appears that his ERA should climb much higher as the season progresses. His other peripheral numbers also suggest that his 2.17 ERA is a fluke. He has a LOB % rate of 87% and a BABIP of .256. His K/9 ratio of 4.66 is Rick Porcello-like. He has had decent command this season and throughout his minor league career so his BB/9 ratio of 3.10 is probably a little high for him. But, the book on him remains the same... he won't strike out many and he should not walk that many. A "here it is, hit it" type of pitcher.

Hunter is a flyball pitcher with a 0.74 GB/FB ratio. His HR/FB% of just 4.2% is due to increase at some point this season. Still, he does not allow many HR's as his 0.62 HR/9 ratio would suggest. Throughout his minor league career, he always had good HR/9 ratios.

Despite his big frame, Hunter does not feature electric stuff. He comes at the hitters with a 89 MPH fastball and cutter and a 78 MPH curveball that is his best pitch. He does throw his 4th pitch, the changeup, about 9 % of the time, so Hunter does incorporate all 4 of his pitches into his starts.

As you might expect by looking at his ERA, Hunter has been solid lately. In his last 4 starts, he has not allowed more than 2 runs in any start, and only 1 HR. He also has pitched until at least the 6th inning in all but one of those starts. He has never faced the Tigers, so it is hard to predict what will happen tonight. Hunter does have traditional splits as lefties hit him for an OPS of .749 and right handed batters only hit for a .544 OPS against him. So, we should see Grandy and Thomas in the lineup tonight. We also have a mixed bag of stats about how we should perform against him. On the one hand, we have below average OPS+ against right handed pitching and an OPS+ of just 86 against finesse pitchers like Hunter. On the other hand, we do our best against pitchers we see for the first time with an OPS+ of 105 and we hit flyball pitchers like Hunter like an above average offense, as well. Brandon Inge, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Raburn are our best combined hitters against flyball and finesse pitchers. Curtis Granderson also does well against flyball pitchers and has a good matchup with Hunter as a lefty, so he may be one to watch tonight.

Previewing the Texas Rangers

2009-07-27T10:49:00.003-04:00

The story the past couple of years about the Texas Rangers is that they are usually a great offensive team with next to nothing in the pitching department. This season, b/c of injuries and some unexpected slumps for some players, the Rangers are roughly an average offense in the AL. As usual, the pitching staff has been below average. Somehow, they have managed to post a 54-42 record and are just 3.5 games back of the Angels in their division. Lets break it all down...

Offense

- The Rangers rank 8th in the AL in wOBA, OPS and runs created. Digging deeper into the numbers, we are able to get a better grasp of the type of offense they are. Essentially, they are free swingers who can mash. The Rangers are 2nd to the Yankees in slugging percentage, and tied for first with the Yankees in ISO at .194. On the other hand, the Rangers rank last in BB/K and 3rd to last in OBP. So, they are not that patient at the plate but they make up for that with a power that is nearly unmatched in MLB. Lately, though, the Rangers have not shown the promise that one might expect with that lineup. Their OPS+ in June was only 84, and their OPS+ in July is currently at 96. Both are below average and well below what they posted in May and April. It is also interesting to note that their OPS+ goes down below average between the 7th and 9th inning.

As far as the splits go, the Rangers have a higher OPS+ against right handed pitching. They also absolutely mash finesse pitching (the Yankees are the exact opposite) to the tune of a 136 OPS+. They are only league average against power pitchers so that does set up well for Justin Verlander. Luke French, though, might be in some trouble tonight.

3B Michael Young, RF Nelson Cruz and 2B Ian Kinsler are all above average hitters at their position. CF Josh Hamilton would be as well but he has struggled mightily with injuries this year. They are receiving well below average offensive production from 1B (Blalock and Davis), and below average production from catcher (Saltamacchia) and SS (Elvis Andrus).

Bullpen

-I will break down the 3 starting pitchers they have going in this series in a separate post, so I will just focus on their bullpen in this installment. Based on the numbers, the Rangers have an average bullpen. They rank 9th in the AL in FIP, 10th in K/BB and 7th in HR/9. One thing going in their favor is ranking first in WPA (win probability added) at 6.19. As a reference point, the Red Sox rank second in that stat.

A big reason for that WPA stat is b/c of their closer, Frank Francisco. He has a 3.60 FIP, 3.23 tRA, and a 4.00 K/BB ratio this season. On the other hand, his month of July has been awful. He is sporting a 7.26 FIP this month and a 5.40 BB/9 ratio. Also in their bullpen, Darren O'Day and C.J. Wilson have been two of the best relievers in the AL. O'Day is a 27 year old right handed pitcher who is built at 6'4, 225. He came over from the Mets this season and has posted a 1.75 ERA, 3.89 K/BB ratio, 0.75 HR/9, 3.28 FIP and 3.39 tRA in 41 appearances. It does not get much better than that for a middle reliever. Meanwhile, C.J. Wilson is also one of the best lefty relievers in the game. In 43 appearances, he has a 2.86 ERA, 2.22 K/BB, 0.61 HR/9, 3.56 FIP and a 3.52 tRA. Again, that is some good stuff. They will be difficult to get to late in a game so it would behoove the Tigers to get up on the Rangers early. Other bullpen arms for the Rangers include the veterans Jason Jennings, Eddie Guardado and our old pal, Jason Grilli. All 3 have been inconsistent this year. Grilli and Guardado have not allowed an ER yet this month, though.

Defense

-Overall, the Rangers have a very good defense and that has probably been one of the main reasons why they have a very good record despite an average offense, slightly below average bullpen and a starting rotation that scares no one. They currently are 4th in the AL in UZR at 22.4 (the Tigers are 3rd). In the infield, they have 3 plus defenders in 1B Hank Blalock, 2B Ian Kinsler and SS Elvis Andrus (he could be the winner of multiple Gold Gloves in his career). On the other hand, Michael Young is arguably the worst defender at 3B in the AL with a -10.5 UZR. The ageless Omar Vizquel, my generations version of Ozzie Smith, is still providing sick defense as one of the best backup infielders in baseball. In the outfield, Nelson Cruz might win a Gold Glove in RF and Josh Hamilton has produced a nice defensive season when healthy. The platoon they have in LF with David Murphy and Marlon Byrd has been below average this season. Saltamacchia is a roughly average catcher defensively and throws out runners at 23.6 % (Laird throws out runners at a 42% clip).

Summary:

They have one of the best power offenses in baseball who feasts on finesse pitchers.
Their offense is not that patient and should strike out a lot without taking too many walks.
C.J. Wilson and Darren O'Day have been two of the best middle relievers in the AL and Frank Francisco has been a good closer this season despite a very bad July.
Jason Grilli pitches for them
They have a very good defense with plus defenders at 5 positions.

Porcello struggles again in loss to Chi Sox

2009-07-26T22:52:00.003-04:00

In the beginning of the season, Porcello was pitching over his head. His BABIP was well below normal and his FIP was well above his ERA. He was due for a heavy fall and that has come. Now, he has been incredibly unlucky in his last 4 starts as most of his flyballs are going for HR's and his BABIP has been very high the last 4 starts. Eventually, his luck in the beginning of the year and his bad luck recently will regress to the mean.

With that said, his peripheral numbers suggest he is basically a #5 starter. Going into tonight (and this number is higher now), Procello had a 5.14 FIP. That is good for 139th in MLB among starters with at least 50 IP. Essentially, that is an average total for a #5 starter (150 starters in MLB and that number would fall slightly below the median of 121-150.) Considering we are counting on him to be our #3 (and that is the organizations fault; not his), that is not good enough. Also, Armando Galaragga, our #4 starter, has a FIP of 5.26. That is 144th among MLB starters. Our back of the rotation has been a concern all year and it will probably continue to be so the rest of this season. Are there some positive signs? Yes. Galaragga has been better in his last 5 starts and Luke French has a FIP below 4 in his first 4 starts. As mentioned above, Porcello will not continue to be this unlucky. But, we have a less stable back of the rotation than the White Sox and Twins have and that might put us at a disadvantage going forward. Ideally, another starter would be added to be our #3 starter. Jarrod Washburn would be ideal but he might be too expensive to get. Jon Garland and Zack Duke could be other options.

Offensively, we were a bit unlucky tonight. Thames crushed two balls that were eventually caught and a large number of our hits were going directly at the Sox position players. But, we were probably due for a night like that after we were the beneficiary of several lucky bounces in the first 3 games of this series. 8 innings and only 1 ER for Richard sounds like a dominating performance. But, it was not one. He only struck out 3 and had 11 fly ball outs. I'm not going to knock the kid. He has decent stuff, a real nice build and will be a dependable back of the rotation starter (at worst) for the Sox for a long time. But, it is important to not overreact to this. Nights like this one happen quite a bit to a baseball team's offense.

As I mentioned in my last game recap post, though, Ryan Raburn's playing time has got to be hanging on a string. He made 2 errors on one play in the 6th inning and basically ended our chances of a comeback with a killer double play late in the game when Richard appeared to be on the ropes. We need a new LF and I am confident that Dombrowski will acquire some sort of upgrade over Raburn.

So, where does this leave us? Well, we took the series from the Sox and are now 2 games up on them and 4 up on the Twins. Those two rivals will square off next and we will take on Texas. It is Galaragga vs. Tommy Hunter tomorrow night at Texas.

Two young kids going tonight for Sox and Tigers in prime time

2009-07-26T13:32:00.003-04:00

Well, well, well. ESPN is jumping on the bandwagon tonight and showcasing the Tigers and White Sox battle tonight. It should be an interesting battle between the two young starters tonight in Rick Porcello and Clayton Richard.

Clayton Richard is on the verge of losing his spot in the starting rotation to Bartolo Colon. Tonight he is receiving a spot start tonight in place of John Danks. Richard has a 5.00 ERA, and that is fairly representative of his play. He has a 4.51 FIP,a BABIP of .323, and a LOB % of 69.0. Technically, that would mean that his ERA will drop. However, the Tigers are not facing an elite pitcher tonight. As of today, Richard is what he is: a bottom of the rotation starter or an arm out of the bullpen. His 1.53 WHIP, .280 opponent batting average and 1.11 HR/9 ratio are all below average for a typical big league starter. His K/BB ratio of 1.80 is also below average. And, his tRA of 4.96 also shows his true ability this season. This is a pitcher the Tigers could light up.

Richard is a ground ball pitcher with a GB/FB ratio of 1.41. He is almost exclusively a 3 pitch pitcher with a fastball, changeup and slider. He features a 91 MPH fastball with good sink to it. However, according to Fangraphs, Richard does not feature one plus pitch.

Richard is coming off his best start of the year when he went 8 strong innings and allowed only 1 ER against the Rays. However, for the most part, he has been disappointing lately. Other than that start, he has not lasted longer than 6 innings in any start and has an ERA over 6 since the start of June.

As for what we should expect to see tonight... Richard has natural splits with righties hitting better off him than lefties. B/c of that we should see a right handed heavy lineup. Maggs, Thames and Everett should all be back in the starting lineup tonight. The Tigers batters, overall, have done well against Richard. In his last start against us, he allowed 10 baserunners in 4.2 IP and 3 ER. It is a small sample size, but Ordonez, Inge and Everett have an OPS over 1.000 against him.

Rick Porcello is going for us tonight after 3 straight rough starts. Despite the rumors on the radio, Porcell0's velocity has not dropped but the bite on some of his pitches have. Porcello has a 4.40 ERA that is beginning to reflect how he has pitched the majority of this season. Rick has a 5.14 FIP and his WHIP, opponent batting average, HR/9 and K/BB ratio all come out below league average. However, it should be noted that Porcello has been getting a little unlucky in recent starts as a HR/FB % of 18.1 is not likely to continue. In fact, his xFIP of 4.43 would suggest that we could start to see a leveling out of his ERA.

Porcello continues to be a good grounball pitcher with a GB/FB ratio of above 2, and his sinker remains a plus pitch. His splits are traditional as lefties hit better off him than right handed batters. So, Jim Thome will be one guy tonight that he will especially have to be careful with.

As for what to expect tonight... well, Porcello has never faced the White Sox. He has allowed at least 9 baserunners and 4 ER in each of his last 3 starts (none of which lasted longer than 5 innings). However, there are some numbers to suggest that he might be getting a bit unlucky with some of those batted balls in play. Could tonight be a night where he turns in a good start against a team trying to avoid a sweep? Lets hope so.

Tigers take a series (already) against White Sox

2009-07-25T22:39:00.003-04:00

In a pivotal series (if there is such a thing in July), the Tigers have bounced back a bit in this series with a rejuvenated offense and a pitching staff and defense that continues to impress. Some quick bullet points...

Guillen's impact has been felt immediately. A home run in his second game back, working the count in nearly every one of his at bats, and the game winning hit today is certainly a welcome site to Leyland. I had mentioned previously that we would have a nice platoon at the DH spot with him batting against right handed pitching and Thames continuing to rake against lefties. So far, my hope has been answered.
Guillen's resurgence leaves us with one spot in our everyday lineup that I do not feel comfortable with: LF. Some guys in the lineup struggle offensively but make up for that by excelling defensively (Laird, Everett, Polanco). Three regulars were All Stars and are not going anywhere (Grandy, Cabrera and Inge). And, we now have two platoons with our rotation at DH and RF that have worked well, thus far. That leaves us with Raburn and the current state of LF. In 19 PA's since the All Star break, he has 2 hits and 1 BB. He also was the victim of a defensive gaffe and a baserunning error in today's game and appears completely overmatched at the plate. Going forward, it may be a bit too much to expect a career bench player to be an everyday left fielder during the stretch run. I also am not keen on the idea of Thames or Guillen seeing time out there (and Guillen probably has no choice in that matter). Finding an upgrade in LF before the deadline is undoubtedly at the top of Dombrowski's wish list.
What else can one say about the starting pitching since the All Star break? Verlander continues to shut up the critics this year and now ranks in the top 10 of virtually every advanced pitching statistic. Jackson, meanwhile, continues to rank up there with Jon Lester and Matt Cain as the premiere #2 starters in the game. He did not have his best stuff today but somehow battled through it and posted his 7th straight quality start. He has not allowed more than 3 runs in a start since May 4th. Unreal. Eddie Bonine also deserves credit. Only 3 runs in a spot start against a division rival? We really could not have asked for more.
The relief pitching, likewise, has been stellar in this series. Ryan Perry continues to impress after his stint in Toledo, Rodney was nails the past two games, and Seay, Lyon and Ni all have done their job this series. The bullpen is really starting to round into form. So is the starting rotation. The defense continues to impress. As I continue to suggest, that combination will keep us in contention until the end.

-It is Porcello vs. Richard tomorrow night on prime time. We rocked Richard in our last meeting with him and this is a very important start for Porcello as he looks to bounce back from 3 straight rough starts.

Per Jason Beck's Twitter... Guillen recalled, Josh Anderson DFA'd

2009-07-24T10:18:00.002-04:00

In other words, this could spell the end of Josh Anderson as a part of the Detroit organization. We needed to see what Guillen might be able to provide us before the trade deadline so the fact that he is being called up after just a couple of games in Toledo is not that surprising.

Ho hum, Tigers lose 2-1.... again

2009-07-24T00:53:00.003-04:00

For the fourth time this week, we lost 2-1. By now, I think I got these games all figured out...

Good pitching performance by our starter? Check. French struck out a career high 6 batters and was very good until he started to get hit around in the 6th inning. As always, he threw strikes, got ahead of the hitters, etc. His spot in the rotation is secure for the time being.
Good work from the bullpen? Check. Ryan Perry struggled a little bit with his command in the 6th and 7th innings. Then, he was nails in the 8th. A great outing for him after that brief stint in Toledo. An electric arm that can throw strikes is an incredibly dangerous weapon. If/when Zumaya gets back healthy and throwing strikes again... man, we could really have something here. Until then, though, it has been frustrating to watch talented arms like Perry and Zumaya struggle with their command. Hopefully, this is the sign that Perry is turning things around.
Threaten in the first inning before leaving a couple guys on base? Check.
A miserable effort offensively filled with lazy fly balls and weak ground outs? Check.

Oh well. We are tied for first in our division on July 24th. If you would have offered me that before the season, I would have taken it. Leyland, Dombrowski, etc. would have taken it too. Up next is a big 4 game series tomorrow. Verlander and Jackson are going in this series and we are missing the White Sox ace in Mark "Prefect Game" Buehrle. Our offense will eventually wake up. As long as our pitching and defense maintain its success, we will be ok in the long run.

Game 93 preview: Tigers look to take series against Mariners

2009-07-23T11:11:00.003-04:00

After a tough loss last night, the Tigers are getting back to work this afternoon against Jarrod Washburn and the Seattle Mariners.

Washburn has always been a guy I have enjoyed watching pitch and is the sort of pitcher that I hoped Nate Robertson would develop into. This season he has a 2.87 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in what appears to be a career season for him. Historically, he has had only one season where he had a FIP below 4 and is basically an ideal back of the rotation starter. He is a lefty, eats a lot of innings and is dependable for a 4.5 ERA or so. His peripheral numbers this year, at 34 years of age, is some of the best of his career. However, they do suggest that he should be due for a fall in the second half of this season. Washburn has a 3.77 FIP (nearly a run higher than his ERA), a low BABIP of .259 and a high LOB % of 78.2. If those numbers revert back to his career averages then his ERA should rise roughly a run in the second half of this season.

As usual, Washburn does not strike out many and does not walk many batters. His K/BB ratio of 2.12 is respectable. His GB/FB ratio of 0.93 suggests that we may see a little more flyballs today. For his career, he has a 0.81 GB/FB ratio. What type of pitches does he do to induce both flyballs and groundballs? According to Fan Graphs, he is the rare pitcher who actually incorporates 5 pitches. He throws his 88 to 89 MPH fastball nearly 60% of the time, and then mixes in a slider, cutter, changeup and curveball. His fastball, slider and curveball have been his best pitches this season and they have been the majority of his career.

As of late, Washburn has been great. He has a 1.82 ERA in July and a 2.81 ERA in June. In his last 10 starts, he has gone at least 6 innings in every start and has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 8 of those starts.

As for what to expect today, we should see a right handed heavy lineup. Right handed batters have an OPS nearly .200 above what left handed batters do against him. Inge and Thames, in particular, have been great against Washburn. They each have an OPS above 1.000 against in over 15 at bats.

Luke French is going for us today. Thus far, he has been a provided some nice stability in the back of our rotation. In his 3 starts, he has a 2.25 ERA in 16 IP. He has allowed 17 hits and 6 BB while striking out 8 batters. Thus far, he has been almost exclusively a flyball pitcher. He has 43 flyball outs compared to 14 groundball outs.

While his ERA looks good, it is a small sample size and his peripheral numbers have not looked that promising. His FIP is 4.68 and his LOB % is above 90. Needless to say, his ERA should go up substantially based on those numbers alone. However, if/when it does, that is ok. We just need French to solidify that #5 spot in our rotation and give us 6 or so innings while keeping the ER to 3 or below in each start.

Like Washburn, French is a soft tossing lefty. His fastball averages 87-88 MPH, and he has been a 3 pitch pitcher this season with a fastball, a plus slider and a 75-76 MPH changeup.

As for today, Seattle has never seen him so the batters are unfamiliar with him in live action. Right handed batters hit for an OPS of .805 against French, and lefties hit for an OPS of .499. B/c of that, Seattle should field their best right handed hitting lineup. If anything, this matchup may bode well for French. Seattle's two best hitters (Branyan and Ichiro) are both left handed. If he can keep those splits against lefties up, he could minimize the potential damage that guys like Branyan, Ichiro, Griffey Jr. and Hanahan might provide.

Provided that the rain does not come, game time is at 1:05. Early word is that Inge is going to play. I would expect Laird to sit today in favor of Dusty Ryan.

Sometimes life happens and tonight, baseball happened

2009-07-22T23:03:00.002-04:00

Over the course of a 162 game season a lot of wins and a lot of losses occur. Some are beyond frustrating and painful (like the game Zumaya blew against the Yankees). Some wins stand out more so than others (like the win over the Twins in extra, extra innings). On the other hand, a lot of games blend together and are forgotten. In a way, I compare it to dating. Some dates stand out as being great. Others stand out because either the girl broke up with you or you broke up with the girlfriend. On the other hand, the 17th date I went on with a girl I dated in high school is not something I will remember. Over time, dates like that blend together. For me, the Tigers game tonight was one of those games.

Why is that exactly? Am I just numb to what is developing into a full-blown below average offense? I don't think so. Felix Hernandez is one of top 10 pitchers in MLB, and Seattle's bullpen tonight featured some nasty, nasty stuff. Sometimes, the opposing pitchers are just better. Tonight was one of those nights. Am I just accepting the fact that this is not a championship contending club? No. Our offense this year is very similar to the offense we featured in 2006 that was good enough to reach the World Series. OBP is the exact same at .329, and wRAA is the exact same at 5. Our wOBA this year is .330 compared to .332 in 2006. Our OPS is .752 this year, and it was .777 in 2006. If it was good enough then...

Ok. So, our offense compares to 2006. And, we know our defense does after putting together another great performance tonight. (Just for a reference point: we are 3rd in the AL in UZR this year and we were second in UZR in 2006). How about our pitching? Well, in 2006 we had a FIP of 4.32. This year, we have a FIP of 4.39. The one thing that is holding our overall pitching staff back in comparison to that year is a dependable starting pitching staff. That year we had a top 4 as good as any in the game. This year we have a top 2 as good as any in the game, but Porcello, Galaragga and a mixture of pitchers we have thrown in the #5 slot have been very up and down (although, I do like Luke French). Hence, in order to continue to resemble that 2006 team, we need Galaragga and one of Porcello or French or some other unknown pitcher to step up. For 5 straight outings now, Armando has done that. Tonight he was not perfect and was a little lucky. He walked 4 batters, only struck out 3 and had 12 flyball outs. Defying baseball odds he ended with just 1 hit. And, Seattle is a terrible offense. Still, though, Armando did his job and is quietly turning into exactly what we need: a dependable back of the rotation starter who can eat innings and give us a chance to win. To me, that development far outweighs the loss tonight.

Going forward, we probably need another bat. Guillen might be that guy. Our bullpen is rounding into form with Lyon, Seay and Ni earning more time and Rodney providing stability as the closer. We also may have found a dependable pitcher in Armando Galaragga. If Porcello or French can handle the pressure of the second half as rookies and become our 4th dependable pitcher, then I like our chances.

Game 92 preview: King Feliz takes on Tigers offense

2009-07-22T16:16:00.003-04:00

After tearing up Garrett Olson last night, the Tigers welcome Felix Hernandez into Comerica Park. Good luck with that? Well, lets look at the numbers...

King Felix has been a top 10 pitcher in MLB this season. He has a 2.51 ERA (5th in MLB) and the peripheral numbers that suggest that this season has been no fluke. He also sports a 2.83 FIP (7th in MLB) and a near-average BABIP of 2.96. Similarly, his 1.12 WHIP (9th in MLB) and 0.54 HR/9 (9th in MLB) ratio is exceptional. He also strikes out batters at nearly a batter an inning, and has a K/BB ratio of 3.49 (15th in MLB). To top it off, he has a WAR of 4.2 (7th in MLB). Notice a trend here? The guy is top 15 in every stat. He is a lethal pitcher that is on the same level as Greinke, Halladay and Verlander, etc. Just as a fan of the game, tonight should be fun watching this guy pitch.

Hernandez has a GB/FB ratio at 1.60, which is actually the lowest of his career. So, he is a guy who can induce a lot of groundouts and can get the strikeout. Nothing better than that. He also sports 4 plus pitches according to Fan Graphs. His fastball averages between 94-95 MPH and is the 8th best fastball this season. After dropping 95 MPH on a batter, he then can throw a changeup at 89 MPH that is also one of the top 10 changeups in the game. A plus slider and slightly above average curveball round out his pitchers.

He sports traditional splits as lefties hit him better than right handers would. Still, lefties only have an OPS of .665 against him. This guy is dynamite regardless who is coming to the plate. That is especially true in his last 10 starts. 9 of those 10 starts lasted at least 7 innings (and in the one that didn't he threw 6.2 innings) and he has a 1.314 ERA during this stretch. So, we are not exactly catching him at a good time. Additionally, he has an ERA of 1.97 on the road.

We have 7 batters on our team with at least 10 AB's against Hernandez. Granderson, Polanco and Laird each have an OPS of at least .800 against him. Grandy, in particular, has been great against Hernandez. He has a stat line of .444/.444/ .667 against the King. That is not particularly surprising as Laird and Grandy are two of our best changeup hitters. Look out for Ryan Raburn, as well (assuming he plays). He is a plus fastball and changeup pitcher. He might get a lucky shot off Hernandez tonight.

Going for the Tigers tonight is Armando Galaragga. His last 4 starts are "good enough" starts for a bottom of the rotation starter. He has gone no fewer than 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 runs. Tonight, more of the same is needed. We need him to eat some innings and keep the ER down to roughly 3-4 runs. Armando has really started to use his changeup a lot more recently, but still is overwhelmingly a fastball-slider pitcher. According to Fan Graphs, his slider and changup have both been plus pitches. His fastball, on the other hand, has been disastorous with a pitch type value of -18.5. His K/BB ratio of 1.51 is still too low, and his FIP of 5.36 leaves much to be desired.

On the plus side, I guess, is that Galaragga is relatively new to Seattle. Only one batter (Franklin Gutierrez) has more than 3 AB's against him. And, he's not playing tonight. Lefties rake Galaragga to a tune of a .944 OPS, so we should see a heavy lefty lineup for Seattle tonight. Specifically, Russell Branyan, a lefty, is one to watch because he is a plus, plus fastball hitter. So too is Ichiro.

All in all, this is why I love baseball. On paper, Hernandez should take care of us tonight. He has been lethal his last 10 starts, has some of the best natural stuff in baseball, our offense has been anemic, and we have a guy who is basically a #5 starter going for us. But, the games are not played on paper and random events happen. Lets make one happen tonight.

In a "moneyball" move, the Lions trade Ronald Curry for Orien Harris

2009-07-22T14:53:00.005-04:00

The Lions new coach, Jim Schwartz, is the NFL's version of Billy Beane. He is a statistical genius with an economics degree from Georgetown and knows more about the stats on Football Outsiders website then possibly any other coach or front office mind in the NFL. This latest move, and a couple of the previous moves made by the Mayhew/Schwartz tag team, provides evidence for this.

So, lets break down this Ronald Curry for Orien Harris deal.

Statistically speaking, Curry was the 5th worst WR in the NFL last year among receivers with 10-49 catches, and was a negative contributor to the Raiders. At the time when we acquired him, we needed bodies at WR. That is no longer the case. Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt were each among the top 60 most productive WR's in the game and are legit #2 and #3 receivers. Just as a reference point, Northcutt was 45th in DYAR( Defense Adjusted Yards above replacement) which was one spot ahead of Terrel Owens and caught passes at a 65% catch rate (Calvin Johnson was at 52% last year). FA signee Bryant Johnson was 53rd in DYAR and ahead of WR's like Jason Avant, Santonio Holmes, Marvin Harrison and Devin Hester (who may be the #1 receiver for Chicago this year). He, like Northcutt, also had a high catch rate of 60% (of the 79 receivers qualified for the stat with at least 50 catches, only 33 had a catch rate of 60% or higher). Additionally, with the draft day selection of do-everything player Derrick Williams and a holdover like John Standeford, Ronald Curry became extremely expendable.
So, what should an organization do when a player becomes expendable? Trade him for a position player that you lack depth at? Sounds good to me. Schwartz likes big, big bodies in the middle to clog up the ground game. Hence, the reason they signed Grady Jackson. Orien Harris is another big body and we need some of those. In 14 games with the Bengals last year, he started 1 game and registered 14 tackles. He is 26 years old and is a 6'3" 300+ lbs DT who was a big recruit in high school before playing for the Miami Hurricanes. Is he the cure all to our DT problems? Heck no. We are still very, very weak on the D line. Frankly, Grady Jackson, Landon Cohen, Chuck Darby, Andre Fluellen, Orien Harris and may be the worst DT rotation in the game. But, we are better today than we were yesterday, and that is a start. Expect next off season to include a heavy emphasis on DT, OL and in the secondary.

Mad Max for Big Baby, the return of smallball and 28 wins ?

2009-07-22T00:59:00.007-04:00

Lets look at some recent links around the Pistons blogosphere and various media outlets...

-Yahoo! Sports reports that Boston offered the Pistons big man Glen Davis and guards J.R. Giddens and Gabe Pruitt for Jason Maxiell and a first-round pick. Evidently, the Pistons, Trail Blazers and Hornets have tried to work a sign-and-trade deal for Big Baby. All reports suggest that the Pistons turned down the first deal and for good reason. Even if one assumes that Davis is better than Maxiell, he is not worth a 1st round pick that could turn out to be a lottery pick. But, back to the Davis vs. Maxiell debate. Should there even be one?

Based on nearly every advanced statistic, Davis was one of the worst big men in basketball last year and was an inferior player to Maxiell. Maxiell had a superior true shooting percentage (TS %), rebound percentage (both offensive and defensive rebounding), PER (15.8 to 10.7), win shares and WARP (3.5 to -0.3). As of today, it is not even close. Maxiell is a vastly superior player. Could that change in a few years? Sure. Davis is taller, younger and may have the potential to actually be a starter one day, while Max does not.

But, I feel as if this hype for Davis is just that: hype and no substance. Even if you compared Davis' second year numbers to Max's and the numbers from his playoff run of this year to Max's 2nd trip to the playoffs (last postseason), Max still looks good in comparison to Davis. Other than win shares, Max would have a superior PER, TS%, TRB%, B% and defensive rating. Also, his playoff numbers in the 2008 playoffs are superior to what Davis had this year. PER is basically identical (15.1 to 15.2), but TS%, TRB%, B%, Stl%, offensive and defensive rating all favor Max and win shares is nearly identical (1.1 to 1.3). The Pistons still need a starting center but they are not in such a desperate need for a big man that they ship out a bench player for another inferior bench player.

-Kevin Sawyer at Detroit Bad Boys is in favor of the return of smallball. This would have Stuckey at PG, Gordon at SG, Hamilton at SF, Prince at PF and Villanueva at C. A lot has changed in the NBA in recent years. Centers are becoming less and less prominent and spacing the floor, being able to handle the ball, run up and down the court and to shoot it from the outside is a highly valued trait for big men. Villanueva and Prince both would cause matchup problems at the 4 and 5 spot. However, a team still needs to be able to defend, and that is one of the supposed downfalls of smallball. It is interesting to note, however, that our best 5 man defensive unit last year was a smallball unit which featured Iverson as the PG, Stuckey at SG, Hamilton at SF, Prince at PF and Rasheed Wallace at center. It is also interesting that the opposing players PER stayed the same for Hamilton at the 3 spot and Prince's opposing PF had a PER of 12.6 (15 is average). So, on paper, this might make some sense.

But, we have to be careful in evaluating these numbers and realize that while Prince's and Hamilton's defensive numbers did not suffer, it is hard to project these numbers for a lot of minutes. Would they hold up if given 30-35 minutes at those spots a night, every night? Also, did Rasheed's presence in the middle of the paint have a subtle effect that we may have missed? Villanueva played center in 11 % of Milwaukee's minutes and allowed an opposing PER of 27.4. Clearly, then, our defense would suffer with such a weak defensive player in that position. We could give Kwame Brown some minutes there in the smallball lineup b/c he is a superior defensive player, but then that would eliminate some of the mismatches we would be hoping to create with the smallball lineup. I do think, however, that it could be a potential wrinkle that Kuester will throw out every now and again against the Pistons opponents.

-The Wages of Wins Journal is a basketball site that attempts to predict the wins for a given NBA team based on the individual performances of each player and the number of wins a player can provide for that team. He generally is within +- 3 of his projected win total and a further explanation to this madness can be found at his site. Below is his take on the Pistons roster as currently constructed...

"First Team:

PG: Rodney Stuckey [4.0 Wins Produced, 0.077 WP48]

SG: Richard Hamilton [1.9 Wins Produced, 0.040 WP48]

SF: Tayshaun Prince [7.3 Wins Produced, 0.114 WP48]

PF: Charlie Villanueva [3.6 Wins Produced, 0.082 WP48]

C: Kwame Brown [2.4 Wins Produced, 0.117 WP48]

Second Team:

PG: Will Bynum [1.2 Wins Produced, 0.071 WP48]

SG: Ben Gordon [4.9 Wins Produced, 0.078 WP48]

SF: Austin Daye [Rookie]

PF: Jason Maxiell [2.9 Wins Produced, 0.098 WP48]

C: Chris Wilcox [0.2 Wins Produced, 0.008 WP48]
If you add up the 2008-09 Wins Produced by the veteran players all you get is 28.4. So unless Austin Daye is suddenly one of the top five players in the NBA – or these veterans become much more productive players — it looks like the Pistons are in trouble."

-Just for reference, an average player posts a 0.100 WP48. Also of note, since 1978 no team has won an NBA title without one regular player (minimum 41 games played, 24.0 minutes per game) posting at least a 0.200 WP48. Only one team (the 1978-79 Seattle Super Sonics) managed to win a title without a regular player crossing the 0.250 threshold. Based on that, we are a ways away from winning a title.

You can tell from that what he thinks of Rip Hamilton's overall game and Kwame Brown surprisingly graded out very well. In essence, he is projecting between 25 and 32 wins for the Pistons. Now, this is by no means a perfect statistic or predictor of what will happen. The schedule, a relatively weak East after the first 3 teams, injuries to key components on rival teams, and the development of guys like Stuckey, Gordon, Villanueva, etc. into better and more productive players would throw his projection for a loop. But, it is something to consider. Sadly, he may be on to something...

Ordonez, offense muscle up for much needed victory

2009-07-21T23:42:00.004-04:00

Well, there you go. More Tigers crossed home plate tonight than the entire series against the Yankees in a 9-7 victory. Nothing like an off day, a return trip home to Comerica and the delight that comes with facing soft-tossing lefty, Garrett Olson, to wake up the bats.

As Lee has mentioned, the Tigers are a vastly superior team at home, and that proved true tonight. What also proved true is that Olson is really not a good pitcher and kind of compares to the last guy the Tigers annihilated offensively in Bruce Chen. So, I'm not going to go dancing down the street b/c of the win tonight and I'm not going to proclaim that the Tigers bats are alive after a brief nap in NY. But, I will give some credit in a few of my post game thoughts...

Marcus Thames had the best 0 for 3 game in a long time. He drew two walks and nearly hit the ball out of the park twice. I predicted a long ball for him and Cabrera and I just missed.
Miguel Cabrera, on the other hand, swung a good stick and his numbers showed up in the box score. 3-3 with a home run, a double and 2 drawn walks. A good start to the series for a guy who has been receiving a lot of criticism on local talk radio.
Magglio Ordonez can still rake against left handed pitching. He had an OPS of .843 against lefties before he tonight and he added to that with a grand slam that really put the game out of reach (despite some scary moments at the end of the game).
Kudos once again goes out to Fernando Rodney. He put runners on second and third with just 1 out before he issued a strikeout and then a long, long fly ball to Clete Thomas to end my heart attack and to ensure that the Tigers could sleep easy tonight. Officially, he is 20 for 20 in save opportunities. Eventually, he is going to walk that tight rope one too many times and he will blow a save. But, even when that happens, he has been so solid this year in save situations that I won't even cause too much of a stink over it.
Brandon Lyon and Zach Miner also did their jobs tonight out of the pen. Ni was hit hard tonight for maybe his worst outing as a Tiger (2 hits, 1 ER in 0.2 IP), and Bobby Seay finally gave up a HR this year. Seay has been as steady as Tiger Woods on a Sunday, so I'm not going to worry too much about that.
To me, though, the story of the night is Rick Porcello. Our offense should destroy Olson. And, we did. I'm more interested to see if they can rake against Felix Hernandez. For Porcello, though, this was a chance to make up for the previous two outings. Again, though, he struggled. At times, he looked real good (as evidenced by the 4 k's in just 5 innings). But, anytime a pitcher allows 9 hits and 5 ER, it is not a good start. His peripheral numbers suggest that he is a back of the rotation starter and not a #3. His pitching on the mound has started to reflect that recently. In his last 5 starts he has not lasted 6 innings and I detailed the horror that has been his last 3 starts just a post below this one. Against the Mariners and Olson, he and our team can get away with a start like that. But, we are going to need Porcello's best stuff on Sunday night against the White Sox. A national TV audience will get a chance to see him that night. A great performance on that stage may be the shot in the arm he needs to get going in the second half of the season. A 4th straight bad outing, though, may take this stretch from being a mini slump to an outright concern going forward. Until then, rest that golden arm and try to keep the thoughts of Jim Thome, Carlos Quentin, Jermain Dye and Paul Konerko walking up to the plate from keeping you up at night, Rick.

-Its King Felix Hernandez against Armando Galaragga tomorrow night. Obviously, this is a mismatch of epic proportions on paper. But, its a home game and Hernandez has been prone to bouts of inconsistency/ really poor outings from time to time. Considering it has been a long time since an elite pitcher has done that against us, we may be due. Here's hoping, right?

It is official: I cursed Rick Porcello

2009-07-21T21:04:00.003-04:00

3 straight poor starts for the Golden Boy since I wrote this post...

How much longer can Porcello keep this up?

Since I cursed Porcello, he has pitched 13.1 innings, allowed 25 hits and has a 9.62 ERA.

My bad.

Is Garrett Olson ready for the wrath of the Tigers offense?

2009-07-21T14:34:00.003-04:00

Garrett Olson is a terrible big league pitcher. No long preview needed. Olson has a FIP of 5.69 (5.13 and 5.90 the last two years), a really low BABIP of .244 (compared to a career average of .322) and has a HR/9 ratio of 1.81. Its time to make an opposing pitcher get embarrassed and he is a prime candidate. Thames and Cabrera might be playing some long ball tonight, and its time to tee off on a pitcher for 7 to 8 runs and win in a runaway. Enough is enough.

The Golden Boy is going tonight, looking to bounce back from two poor outings. Seattle has a below average offense, so this might be a good start to get Porcello going again.

Guillen recalled

2009-07-21T12:13:00.006-04:00

Carlos Guillen has been recalled from his brief rehab stint in Lakeland. He saw some time in LF there and went 3 for 12 with 4 walks and a double. There had been reports that he was experiencing some trouble while swinging right handed, so this is a bit of a curious move. An update will come when a corresponding move has been made. I imagine that Josh Anderson, Magglio Ordonez and Ryan Raburn are on the chopping block. Raburn does have a minor league option left (although he would have to clear revocable waivers).

Update: Guillen is being sent to Toledo. When his return will occur is still up in the air.

Dumars going against the "NBA way" again

2009-07-20T19:48:00.004-04:00

Since Magic and Larry Bird have entered the NBA, superstars have ruled the league. In fact, they haven't just ruled the league they are so big that they make other 1 name stars like Prince, Cher and Madonna wince. Magic, Bird, Kareem, MJ, Shaq, Kobe and Duncan have been the names synonymous with NBA titles in the last 30ish years. Other stars like Dr. J and Moses Malone or Isiah Thomas or Hakeem or Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce have also snuck in and won a title or two. But, the prevailing philosophy has always been: get the supersar, build around that superstar and get that said superstar a great complementary player and you have the recipe for a championship contending team.

Joe Dumars does not buy into that logic. At least, none of his actions as the GM for the Pistons for nearly a decade suggests that he does. Instead of getting a superstar player, he built the championship team in 2004 around the "5 beats 2" model. In other words, a great starting 5 will beat a superstar and a great complementary player. And, for one season, he was absolutely right. On the way to building that team, he made one of the greatest free agent signings in recent NBA history with the signing of Chauncey Billups, fleeced some guy named Michael Jordan in the Jerry Stackhouse-Rip Hamilton deal, made a great draft pick with the selection of Tayshaun Prince, picked up Ben Wallace in a sign and trade for Grant Hill and watched him become the best defensive player in the game, and acquired a Hall-of-Fame talent in Rasheed Wallace for a bag of popcorn and a breath mint. He also fired Rick Carlisle and hired a vagabond coach and one of the truly great teachers of the game in Larry Brown. And with that, he created a core that would be a top 5 team in the game for 6 straight seasons and an NBA champion in 2004. Critics be damned, Joe D. proved that he could go against conventional wisdom and still win an NBA title.

I don't want to make it seem like Joe D. was perfect or anything prior to the start of that run. He had failed failed draft picks (Mateen Cleaves and Rodney White) and allowed Michael Curry to stick around on the team for too long. But, he was damn near perfect. Since 2004, much of his work has been spotty, at best. The free agent signing of Antonio McDyess was a great one. Letting Ben Wallace walk away to the Bulls by not matching their offer was also a good move. Drafting Rodney Stuckey may turn out to be a good pick. He also acquired a guy who looked like Fabio and who doesn't like that? Other than that, though, he has left much to be desired since the end of the 2003 season. The Darko pick prevented the Pistons from adding Hall of Fame wing players like Carmelo Anthony or Wade or an ideal complementary big man like Chris Bosh. The pick of Carlos Delfino prevented the Pistons from acquiring an elite scoring SF off the bench like Josh Howard or another big man like Kendrick Perkins. Joe D. also never adequately replaced Ben Wallace (Nazr Mohammed, Chris Webber and Kwame Brown?) and never found a competent backup to Prince/a good wing player off the bench (Fabio, Maurice Evans and Flip Murray come to mind as failed options). Needless to say, his drafts since 2003 have also been disappointing, as Stuckey is the only impact player he has drafted in that time frame.

With all that said, Joe D. has earned the right to rebuild this team and he is looking to correct 4-5 years of poor moves by going back to a familiar model: the "5 beats 2" model, as I like to call it. Dumars is banking on Rodney Stuckey to become the modern day Chauncey Billups and become the leader of this team. Can John Kuester, a Larry Brown disciple, turn Stuckey from a potential combo scoring guard like Chauncey was into an elite NBA PG like Chauncey became? Joe D. is obviously hoping lightening strikes twice. He is hoping that Ben Gordon develops into what Rip Hamilton was/still is: a dependable scorer who can get you 20 a night and be a prime-time scorer and shooter in the clutch. He is also hoping that Charlie Villanueva becomes the good Rasheed Wallace. You know, the one with Hall of Fame talent who featured one of the best post up moves in the game, could stretch the defense with the threat of the 3, and play solid one-on-one defense down low while cleaning up the glass. In essence, Joe D. has 3 pieces of his puzzle and needs 2 more. He will try to get those with the eventual trading of Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince and possibly the development of Austin Daye. Dumars probably sees Daye as a better offensive and worse defensive version of Prince. A 6'9"-6'10" beanpole with a metabolism that makes nearly every other American jealous, and a jack-of-all trades player who can handle the rock and break people down off the dribble. If Daye does become that player, then he would become piece #4 in Joe D's mad concoction of a championship contending team. Piece #5 could come with the trading of Rip or Tay or possibly both for a defensive stalwart at the center position. Then, with that, Joe D., in his mind, would have re-created the 2004 team as close as he possibly could in today's NBA.

Could lightening strike twice? Could Joe D. really be that smart that he would outwit 29 other GM's again? We'll see. It should be a bumpy ride along the way but it will all be worth it if it ends up being fun in the end.

Wilcox to the Pistons

2009-07-18T20:42:00.000-04:00

According to ESPN, we have found our "replacement" for McDyess.

NBA free agents: The Detroit Pistons sign Chris Wilcox - ESPN

Cap space is now pretty much gone. This is our roster as of right now, I believe.

PG-Stuckey, Bynum
SG-Hamilton, Gordon, Washington
SF-Prince, Daye, Summers (3/4)
PF- Charlie V., Maxiell, Jerekbo
C- Brown, Wilcox

-Obviously, there will be some interchanging of the positions. But, that is our roster. A 3rd PG and signing Ben Wallace to the vet minimum is all that is left to fill out the roster barring a much needed trade for a big man.

Much more later.

Loss of Zumaya should be golden opportunity for Bobby Seay

2009-07-18T09:11:00.004-04:00

In sports, injuries happen. That much is obvious. What follows an injury to a player is one of my favorite things about sports... an injury to one player often gives an opportunity for another player to prove that they are worth more to the team than originally thought. What that player does with that opportunity defines a lot about them. If they perform well in the expanded role, then more expectations and responsibility will be placed on their shoulders. If they fail in their new role, they often drop back into obscurity and resume with their lesser role that they previously held. With Zumaya's injury , I imagine that Brandon Lyon will pick up a lot of his playing time. He has been a closer in the past and has pitched in pressure packed moments. In addition to Lyon, it is also time to take the kids gloves off of Bobby Seay and let him become more than a situational lefty.

One of the concerns with using a lefty in a late inning role is the threat that a right handed batter will pose. This season, though, right handed batters have struggled mightily against the lefty. In 39 PA's against right handed batters, Seay has issued 3 walks, 5 singles and just one extra base hit (a double). Their stat line against him goes like this... .167/.220/.194. That is a .414 OPS. Lefties only have a .564 OPS against him, so it is not like he has dramatic reverse splits.

How good has Seay been recently? In his last 20 appearances, he has not allowed a run. How good has he been this season? He has the 5th best FIP (2.56) for all qualified relievers in the AL. The guys he is between are Andrew Bailey and David Aardsma, two strikeout kings who have been widely regarded as two of the best relievers in MLB this season. He even has a better FIP than Mariano Rivera. He is one of just seven qualified relievers to not allow a HR this season. In addition to not allowing a home run all year, he also is allowing line drives at an all time low (14.6%). His 1.00 WHIP is 5th best in the AL. He is tied for 1st in holds in the AL with Matt Guerrier and Hideki Okajima.

Seay also has the talent to succeed in such a role. He was once a 1st round pick and has 2 plus pitches with a 91 MPH fastball that he throws for strikes and a good slider. It is clear that he has more than deserved this proposed promotion. It is certainly not a guarantee that he will succeed. He has never really been put in this situation before. And yet, at 31 years of age, it is time to see what Seay is made of. Can he handle the pressure of throwing against a Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau or Jermain Dye in the 8th inning of a 1 run game? Will he continue to keep a good K/BB ratio as the spotlight on him becomes greater? These questions and many more surrounding Seay are unknowns. What is known, however, is that he deserves this opportunity to sink or swim. FWIW, I think he will swim quite well.

Well, scratch my plan... Zumaya is probably headed to the DL

2009-07-18T00:24:00.004-04:00

Courtesy of Tom Gage at Det News...

"Says his shoulder is throbbing, heard a pop. can't lift his right arm and is returning to Detroit for an MRI"

-If true, that is bad, bad news. He needs work down in Toledo. He does not need another trip to the DL. And, if there was a pop heard, then this could be a long term injury and we still need him during the stretch run.

-Ryan Perry will probably be brought up if/when Zumaya hits the disabled list.

Update: Zumaya has been placed on the DL and Ryan Perry has indeed been recalled. Perry was sent down to Toledo to work on his command and on his slider. His BB/9 ratio of 6.91 is the worst in the AL among qualified relievers. And, his 1st pitch strike percentage of just 39.5% is the worst in baseball. Needless to say, he has to improve on those numbers. He has the talent, the fastball and the nautral ability to get the all-important strikeout. We all know that. Whether he can do that while cutting down on his walks allowed has yet to be seen. Again, I imagine he will be our 7th inning guy, at best. He is not ready to be put in with the game on the line, yet.

Pain

2009-07-17T23:33:00.004-04:00

Lets just forget this game and get this post game out of the way.

Luke French pitched well enough for a #5 starter against the best offense in baseball.
Josh Anderson made a play in the outfield a 2003 Tiger would have made, and then guns down Posada an inning later. Thank you, Yankee 3rd base coach for sending a catcher when the ball was hit right to Anderson in LF. Anderson also kept his bat on his shoulder tonight and drew two walks.
Granderson's HR surge this year continues.
Zumaya should be done for this series, at least.
Ni continues to pitch well.
I have already had enough of Rod and Mario slobbering over Jeter. He is going to be in the Hall of Fame, has accumulated a large amount of wealth during his career, he's good looking and can date any woman he wants. He doesn't need our Tigers announcers saluting him with every play he makes.

Verlander vs. Sabathia tomorrow. Pain shall be delivered to the Yankees lineup.

Know thy enemy: CC Sabathia

2009-07-17T22:45:00.003-04:00

After signing that unbelievably lucrative long-term deal, Sabathia is having his worse season since 2005 and has really not lived up to the billing in NY. His 3.86 ERA and 3.72 FIP are both good, but more was expected for someone who is being paid like a pitcher who should be a Cy Young candidate every year. In the first year in his deal, that has not happened.

His K/9 ratio of 6.66 is his lowest since 2004 and his BB/9 ratio of 2.66 is his worst since 2005. That is obviously not a good sign. On the other hand, his WHIP is right in line with what it has been the last 3 years and his BABIP and LOB % are at a career low. If both of those revert back to normal, then his numbers should begin to look a lot better.

His GB/FB ratio is 1.08, but his career average is 1.25. He is a 3 pitch-pitcher and all of his pitches qualify as plus pitches. He relies on his slider and changeup for nearly 40% of his pitches. His fastball is then used nearly 60% of the time at an average velocity of 94.1 MPH. Historically, his slider and changeup have been absoltuely sick pitches. His slider has not been as effective as it has been in the past but his changeup has been the 3rd best changeup in baseball this year, according to Fan Graphs. If his slider returns to what it once was and his BABIP and LOB % revert to his career norms and/or the league average, then he could be a candidate for a real strong second half and is capable of completely shutting down the Tigers today.

Raburn, Granderson, Santiago, Thames, Polanco, Inge and Ordonez have all had at least 10 AB's against him. Of these, Thames, Polanco and Ordonez have an OPS all above .800 against him. In just 6 at bats against Sabathia, Miguel Cabrera has 4 hits, a HR, 6 RBI and a 1.833 OPS.

Zumaya blows lead and should pack bags to Toledo

2009-07-17T22:21:00.003-04:00

For the fourth time in his last 9 outings, Zumaya blew a save and allowed at least 2 ER. He can no longer be counted on in any situation, and he has absolutely no command. With his minor league options remaining and Ryan Perry pitching well in Toledo, it seems obvious what the next move will be. Zumaya should be sent down to Toledo to work on his command and Perry should be brought up to take over Zumaya's role as the 7th inning guy. Lyon and Seay should split duties in the 8th and Rodney will close the 9th.

As of today, Zumaya reminds me of Matt Anderson. He can throw it 100 MPH but he throws pitches just with the hope of them ending in the strike zone and aims his pitches. His confidence appears to be shot and who can blame him? He has been one of the worst late inning relievers in the last month in MLB and he is now tied for the major league lead in blown saves. Here is what I wrote about Zoom Zoom just a few weeks ago after he blew the game against the Cardinals...

"These inconsistent efforts are becoming far too common, especially for a guy who was branded as our closer of the future in 2006. That day is coming. Rodney will be a FA this offseason, and will command a big raise. The Tigers may or may not want to give him a big money, long term deal. This is, essentially, his tryout to be our closer for 2010. It is also his tryout to be our shutdown 8th inning guy for this year. If he continues to struggle to throw strikes or keep the ball in the park, then Lyon, Seay and even Miner will be trusted more in those crunch moments in September and October.

As I said in a previous post about Verlander, it is time for Zumaya to step up. Again, it is all laid out there on the table for him. He's got the fastball. He's got the curveball. He's got the closer job in the future if he performs. He can be the shutdown guy to hold the lead for Rodney this year. But, he needs to throw strikes."

-That tryout to be our future closer is turning up in smoke, right now. It is amazing that he has not lost any velocity off his fastball even with his injury history. But, the honeymoon is over and the gig is up. It is time to pack his bags and head down to the Mud Hens for a mid-season break and an opportunity to get things straightened out. The world is not over for Zumaya. He still possesses the talent to succeed at the this level. But, 2006 is becoming a distant memory and his lack of command is just downright disturbing.

With all that said, Jim Leyland is not free from my rath. Let me break this down...

As I mentioned in my preview of the Yankees team, they mash power pitchers to an OPS+ of 141.
Lefties hit for an OPS 0f .944 against Zumaya
Yankee Stadium is perfectly built for a left handed hitter with that short porch in right field.
He was at least going to face left handed hitters, Johnny Damon and Mark Teixera (who each mash right handed pitching).

-The result was not surprising. Leyland put Zumaya in a position to fail and he did just that. Jeter led off the inning with a single, Damon just missed a home run and ended up with a double, and Teixera launched a majestic home run to effectively end the game. Then, Zumaya was inexplicably left in to load the bases before eventually getting out of the inning. I like Leyland, but there is no excuse for putting Zumaya in a situation like that. It was an incredibly predictable result that should have never been allowed to happen.

Know the enemy: AJ Burnett

2009-07-17T18:50:00.004-04:00

After signing a lucrative contract to be Robin to Sabathia's Batman, Burnett has been a little bit of a disappointment thus far. He does have a 3.77 ERA but his peripheral numbers suggest a fall is coming in the second half. He has a 4.55 FIP and a LOB % that is reasonably high at 79%. He continues to strike out a lot of batters but his command has really slipped this year. As a result, his K/BB ratio of 1.91 is his worst since 2003. Likewise, his 1.38 WHIP is his worst total since 2003. What has been the difference? For the first time since 2002, his GB/FB ratio is under 1.50. This year, it sits at 0.98. Thus far, gone is the pitcher who could strike out at a near 9.00 K/9 ratio AND induce ground balls.

Burnett, though, is still a flame thrower. His average fastball velocity is 94.2 MPH. He is basically a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball that has been beaten up this year and a curveball that is truly one of the best in the game. Expect to see the curve a lot tonight when he needs a punchout. Not surprisingly, when a player swings at a ball outside the strike zone against Burnett, they usually come up empty. His O-contact % of 50.5% is outstanding.

According to his splits, right handers have hit better off Burnett this year. Right handed batters have a .785 OPS compared to a .689 OPS for lefties. He has been on a bit of a roll lately, as well. He had a 2.10 ERA in June and has a 2.70 ERA this month after shutting down the Twins in his last start.

Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge and Gerald Laird have an OPS above 1.000 against him. Polanco and Granderson, meanwhile, have particularly struggled against Burnett. Specifically, Grandy has 1 hit in 11 tries against him. Cabrera and Thames are our best curveball hitters and are both right handed, so they could have a favorable matchup against Burnett.

The hated Yankees bring great offense to series

2009-07-17T14:43:00.003-04:00

-With the highest payroll in baseball, the Yankees better have the best lineup in baseball. And, they do. They lead all of MLB in wOBA, OPS, OBP, SLG, runs created... you name it. The only players with an OPS below .800 are Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner, and both of their OPS totals are above .750. They also absolutely mash power pitchers to a tune of an OPS+ of 142. So, it will be a good battle of power vs. power mashers when Verlander and Jackson meet up against the Yankees.

-Defensively, the Yankees are below average, and would be flat awful if Brett Gardner did not get playing time in CF. They rank 20th overall in UZR at -12.9. Gardner is a plus, plus defender with similar defensive numbers to Franklin Gutierrez. Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano are slightly above average defenders this year. Ever so slightly. Among the regulars, A-Roid and Johnny Damon have been two of the worst defensive players at their respctive positions this year.

-I will profile the starting pitchers seperately, so I will just look at their bullpen. In the last 30 days prior to the All Star break, the Yankees had the 4th best ERA among bullpens in MLB and have improved as the season has progressed. Obviously, we all know about Mariano Rivera. He has a K/BB rate of 14.33 this season. which is by far the best of his career. One blip in his resume is the 1.22 HR/9 ratio, which is the highest of his career. Phil Coke (a lefty), Phil Hughes and David Robertson are the next most used relievers. Robertson has a sick 13.50 K/9 ratio but he also walks the park with a BB/9 ratio of 6.35. He has the best ERA and FIP of the three but a WPA of -0.86. Hughes is the incredible prospect who has yet to pan out, but poses a big threat out of the bullpen. Brian Bruney has been lethal against lefties and may be counted on to get a guy like Granderson out this weekend. The veteran Brett Tomko, long reliever Alfredo Aceves and little-used reliever/promising prospect Mark Melancon round out the bullpen.

Tigers at the break: Lets do some grading

2009-07-16T19:22:00.010-04:00

A number of blogs have given their takes on the Tigers season thus far. One blogger, in particular, gave out individual player grades. A Manager's Lament is a newer blog about the Tigers by a well-informed baseball fan. Here are his grades for the team, pitchers and hitters.

What follows will be my take on individual players based on their role on our team and how the player compares to other players at their respective position...

Batters

Catchers

Gerald Laird: C+.
-Laird leads AL catchers in fewest attempted steals against per game, caught stealing percentage, and is tied for first in fewest throwing errors. He is only 4th in fielding percentage for catchers, but he should still be in the running for a gold glove this year. On the other hand, he has been below average this season offensively. For catchers with at least 200 PA's, he ranks 9th in wOBA, 10th in OPS, 9th in VORP, 9th in EQA, and tied for 8th in runs created. So, he has been very good defensively and below average offensively. WAR means less for catchers b/c it does not account for their defense. He ranks 9th in that stat. Overall, it has been a good trade that DD made when acquiring Laird. I value the defense/game calling a catcher can provide more so than any offense they can provide. So, instead of splitting the difference between good defense and good offense, I will give a slight nod to his D and give him a C+.

Dusty Ryan and Dane Sardihna: Inc
-These guys really have not played enough to grade them. Pineapple may be one of the worst hitters I have ever seen at the major league level, but he only played in 12 games. Ryan, meanwhile, needs to play more in the second half to ensure that Laird does not tire out.

Infielders

Miguel Cabrera- A-
-It has been the year of the 1st baseman this year in the AL. Morneau Teixeira, Branyan, Youkilis and Cabrera have all been outstanding. In most offensive statistics, Cabrera comes in 4th. He ranks 4th in wOBA, OPS, EQA, VORP, and tied for 5th in runs created. But, the differences in these statistics is miniscule and Cabrera could just as easily finish 1st in all of these stats at the end of the season. He also is improving everyday as a 1st baseman and will win a Gold Glove one day. In addition, his WAR of 2.7 is barely behind Youkilis' 3.1. He could easily become the top 1st baseman in the AL with a second half like he had last year. To make that happen, he might need to start hitting better in "cluctch" situations. He ranks in last place in that stat on Fan Graphs, and is just 11th in WPA. The Tigers will need him to come up big in these situations in the second half. B/c of that and b/c he is not a top 3 first baseman, he gets an A- with the potential to earn an A at seasons end.

Placido Polanco: C+
Polanco is turning in gold-glove caliber defense as he leads all of 2nd baseman in UZR, is 1st in the "clutch" stat offensively and is 7th in WAR. Overall, though, he has stuggled offensively. He is 11th in wOBA, 12th in OPS, 9th in runs created, and 12th in VORP. This season compares very favorably to what he turned in 2006. Like Laird, I will give him the benefit of the doubt b/c of his great and dependable defense. A C+.

Ramon Santiago: C-
-A backup like Santiago is always tough to grade. Do I grade him based on his role on the team? In that sense, he would grade higher than Everett and Polanco. On the other hand, there is a reason he is not trusted with more playing time. I am going to split the difference and give him a C-. He has been a negative defender this year, but he has made up for some of that with a good bat. An OPS above .750 is very good for a backup infielder. He is on pace for roughly 90-100 games. He's played well enough to warrant that playing time but has not provided the defense needed to supplant Everett or Polanco in the starting lineup.

Adam Everett: C
-Everett has always been an all-glove, no-bat type of player. He should have a couple Gold Gloves but is usually terrible with the bat. This season, he has surprised me with his bat and disappointed me somewhat with his glove. With that said, he has still been above average defensively and below average offensively. So, split the difference and we get a "C" for steady Everett. His UZR/150 of 4.5 is his worst since 2002 but SS is a very tough position. He still ranks 3rd in the AL for that stat. Offensively, he has been compared to other SS. He ranks 12th in VORP, 13th in runs created, 13th in wOBA, and 12th in OPS. Like Laird and Polanco, I will give him the benefit of the doubt and because he is a plus defender at a position that requires it, I will give him a C.

Brandon Inge: A
-Along with Edwin Jackson, his development this year has had the most impact on us becoming a contender in the AL Central. He has easily been the 2nd best 3rd baseman in the AL this season and should have been voted in the All Star game by the players. He ranks 3rd in the UZR/150 stat and second in WAR at 3.5. Not only has he provided gold glove defense but he has also been a force offensively. He ranks second in wOBA, OPS, runs created and slugging percentage and 1st in the "clutch" stat. He does rank 4th in EQA and 6th in VORP, but his overall offensive numbers may make him the 2nd best offensive 3rd baseman in the AL, thus far. Defensively, he has been on par with Adrian Beltre and Evan Longoria and Joe Crede. He has far outshined the defensive play of A-Rod, Michael Young, Chone Figgins and Scott Rolen. Truly a career season for Inge. He has struggled in the 2nd half in his career, but he performed better in the 2nd half during 2006. I see no reason why that cannot happen again.

Jeff Larish: Inc
-I've never been a fan of Larish. With Cabrera locked up for almost a decade, where does he fit in our future plans? A DH? Trade bait?

Outfielders

Magglio Ordonez: F
-Lets get this out of the way quickly. He is a negative defender who has the worst OPS of any RF in the AL. He has a WAR of -0.5. Technically, he should owe us money with that performance. Don't let him face a right handed pitcher again and keep him from hitting those incentives in his contract and I will be a happy man.

Curtis Granderson: B+
-In a weak year for CF in the AL, Grandy made his first All Star game in what is shaping up to be his worst season since 2006. Maybe he will never be able to have another season like 2007, but this year has been good in its own right. He is 3rd in WAR, and in UZR (although he is nowhere near Gutierrez or Upton defensively). Offensively, he is scrambled around in a lot of statistics but is probably 3rd overall behind Adam Jones and Torri Hunter. He is 5th in OPS, 4th in wOBA, 5th in SLG, 3rd in RC, and 4th in EQA. B/c it is a weak year overall for CF in the AL and he has taken a step back from both 2007 and 2008, I am going to give him a B+.

Josh Anderson: D
An OPS just north of .600 for a corner outfielder is downright awful. But, he has the highest UZR/150 of any OF on our team. Limit his at bats by a considerable amount and use him in just a defensive role and as a pinch runner, and that would be perfect. As it is, he is a terrible offensive player who's defense is just good enough to earn a passing grade.

Clete Thomas: B
-After being sent down to Toledo to work on shortening his swing, he has been on an absolute tear. Overall, this season, he has a .808 OPS and has been nails in the OF. His UZR of 6.0 in RF would project to 20.9 over 150 games. Along with Anderson, they have been great defensively as corner outfielders. B/c of him, Ordonez is finally in a platoon and has seen his at bats decreased. His offense has been a notch below Raburn's but his defense has been better and he has a higher WAR. He gets a B.

Ryan Raburn:B-
-For now, he is our everyday LF. I never thought I would say that. His OPS of .842 is better than Granderson's and he has been a plus fielder in LF. He also has the second highest WPA of all of our position players. He has been clutch, swinging a good bat and providing solid defense. Cannot ask for much more than that. As mentioned above, he gets a grade lower than Thomas.

Don Kelly: Inc
-A nice cup of coffee up here. Nothing more than that.

Marcus Thames: B-
-Basically, he has been our DH. And, he has been good. An OPS of .875 is great and a wOBA of .361 is nothing to sniff at. If not for early season injuries, his standard numbers would look much better. With that said, Thames is an interesting case. He actually had an OPS of .882 in 2006, so the potential is there for him to do it again. And, I don't think he has declined as a hitter. On the other hand, his BABIP of .305 is ridiculously high for him. As a result, his numbers should decline in the second half like they always do (post All Star break in his career, his OPS is .200 lower than pre All Star Break). I see him going into a platoon of sorts when Guillen comes back. For now, though, he gets a B-. We have needed his power and he has been a pretty good DH.

Pitchers

Starters

Justin Verlander: A
-The man, the myth, the legend. A guy who has the natural stuff to be the best pitcher in the game has finally taken the next step in his maturation process. The scary thing is, he should only get better this season and hopefully beyond. His 3.38 ERA does not even begin to describe the story. His K/9 rate of 10.96 is the best in baseball and his 2.70 FIP is tied for 4th in the game. His K/BB rate of 3.92 is 11th in baseball and easily the best of his career. Even better news? His BABIP of .333 should come down and his LOB % of 72.6 is nearly league average. He also has had the 6th worst defense behind him when he pitches. Considering how great our defense has been, that is incredibly unlucky for Verlander. Other than a history of struggling in the second half and wear and tear on his arm, there is nothing to suggest that his numbers will not improve in the second half. Other than Greinke and Hallday, he has been the best pitcher in the AL.

Edwin Jackson: A
-When the trade was initially made, I viewed Jackson as a reliable back of the rotation starter. And now, here we are. He has the 5th best ERA in the game and the best WHIP in the AL. Without him this year, we are not in first place at the break. And, his lack of run support has been well documented. Thus, his number of wins should be much higher. On the other hand, Jackson has been the beneficiary of some luck. His FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA and his BABIP of .254 is very low. His LOB % of 77.8 is also quite high. In addition, he has been the beneficiary of playing in front of the 3rd best defense on the day he pitches. So, his ERA will probably rise. But, even if it does, he will still have an ERA and the peripheral numbers of an ideal #2 starter. He and Verlander have been arguably the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball.

Rick Porcello: C-
-If I was grading him simply based on his performance as a 20 year old, he would have an A. His ERA is very similar to one posted by Clayton Kershaw last year as a 20 year old pitching for the Dodgers. On the other hand, this is the majors, and I am grading him in comparison to other major league starting pitchers. By that comparison, he is below average as a #3 starter. His FIP of 5.03 is something a #4 or #5 starter should have. His K/9, K/BB and WHIP and HR/9 numbers are all below average. B/c of the 4.14 ERA, I will give him a little break. If he could be counted on as a back of the rotation starter and if we acquired a reliable #3 starter then I would sleep a lot better at night (well, not really, but you get the point). Still, the kid is 20. The Golden Boy will only get better. He is something special.

Armando Galaragga: D
5.09 ERA and a 5.38 FIP with a below average K/BB, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and WHIP. Not good. Especially for someone we were counting on as a #2 or #3 starter this year. As a back of the rotation starter, I like what he can bring. He can eat innings. I like his build. He is a 3-pitch pitcher. But, he has to show it this year. Again, if we could bump him down to our #5 starting pitcher, then he would be performing in line with other #5 starting pitchers. We need to acquire another starter for that to happen, though. Until then, he needs to pitch better and drop his ERA by a half a run by the end of the year.

D-Train: F
-I hated the contract extension when Dombrowski gave it to him. Now? I look like a genius. Willis has 1 win in 2 years and will not pitch for the rest of the year for us. If it is truly an anxiety disorder that is causing his problems, then he can overcome it. I am rooting for him hard. He has one more year to carve out a niche on our team.

French/Figaro: Inc
-Still too early to judge either of them. I felt Figaro was overamatched and I think French can give us good innings out of that #5 starter slot. We will see if I am a genius or an idiot.

Relievers

Nate Robertson: F
-Lets get this out of the way. If I had this blog before this year, then everyone would have known that I was a big fan of Nate's. To me, he was the ideal back-of-the rotation starter and I likened him to Jarrod Washburn. I would have been a big supporter of his last year. And I would have thought he was on his way to a comeback this year in the bullpen. Now? I look like an idiot. My 3 year old nephew gets left handed batters out at the same rate he does. He might never pitch for the Tigers again. He pitched 21 games too many for us this year. Thanks for Gum Time, Nate.

Fernando Rodney: B
-Tough to grade. He has been lights out when it matters. 19/19 in save opportunities (with the loophole in the rule book), and a WPA of 1.77. On the other hand, he is not a Mariano Rivera, Papelbon, etc. He has a 4.12 FIP and a terrible K/BB ratio of 1.79. In non save situations, you need to hide the wife and children. During save situations, you can let them watch once he gets to two outs b/c he continues to deliver when he has too. Fernando Rodney has brought a sense of stability to our bullpen. I never, ever thought that I would say that. Hat tip to him.

Joel Zumaya: D
-He has the talent to be one of the best closers in the game. Problem is, here he is in his 4th season with us and he has not seized that role. He has the second worst WPA on the team for relievers, an FIP of 5.00 and a K/BB ratio of a miserable of 1.43. And, he is near the league lead in blown saves. He should not be the 8th inning guy. But, hey, he can throw it 100 MPH.

Bobby Seay: A
-Near the league lead in holds, a 2.57 FIP and he can throw strikes. He has been our best reliever and needs more innings. If he can't handle them, then you can take them away from him. But, he has earned the right to get the ball more. This has been his best season as a Tiger and he is starting to show why he was once a 1st round pick.

Brandon Lyon: D+
-Recently, he has been great. But, this is a grade for the whole season and he has barely been better than Zumaya, imo. He has the worst WPA on the team, and sports a terrible 1.33 K/BB ratio. His 4.86 FIP is better than Zumaya and he has been a lot more reliable lately. Hence, the better grade than Zumaya.

Zach Miner: C-
-A 4.36 FIP is decent, but the 4.56 BB/9 ratio, 1.68 WHIP and -0.41 WPA is not good at all. He will have several good outings and then one where he just flat struggles for some reason. Slightly better than Lyon this season and he got some spot starts.

Ryan Perry: D
-The somewhat controversial first round pick of last year has been in Toledo working on his slider and his command. His 1.25 K/BB ratio is Nate Robertson-like and his 1.65 WHIP is not good. He has probably been the worst right handed reliever we have had, but I will give him the benefit of the doubt b/c of age and being rushed to the majors. He gets the same grade as Zumaya.

Eddie Bonine, Clay Rapada, Juan Rincon, Ni, Dolsi: Inc
-Ni has been far and away the most impressive of this bunch. Rincon is no longer even with the organization. Rapada might be called back up in September.

Joe D. trades Afflalo and Sharpe to Denver in a salary cap move

2009-07-13T19:11:00.002-04:00

Welcome to the wonderful world that is the NBA salary cap. The Pistons traded Aaron Afflalo and Walter Sharpe to Denver for a future second round pick. Afflalo was a first round pick in 2007 (27th overall) and Sharpe (32nd overall) was a early second round pick that we got in the D.J. White deal. So, in essence, we traded two late first round picks for cap space. Rumors have circulated that we are in talks to acquire Carlos Boozer or Tyson Chandler in a potential trade and/or that we may sign Glen Davis or Dwight Gooden in free agency. The move clears up $1.8 million in salary and what follows is a breakdown of our salary cap situation by Dave Dial...

"With the news that the Detroit Pistons have traded Arron Afflalo and Walter Sharpe to Denver to obtain more cap space this summer, let's look at what the move does for the cap space the Pistons have after the trade.

That chart shows the Pistons have almost $52.9 million in salary, as far as the NBA salary cap rules are concerned. By trading Afflalo and Sharpe the Pistons do not receive the full value of shedding each players contract because there is a rule stating that for each roster slot under 12, a team has to put a minimum salary in that slot.

A roster charge if the team has fewer than 12 players (players under contract, free agents included in team salary, players given offer sheets, and first round draft picks). The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player below 12. The roster charge only applies during the offseason.

The minimum salary for the 2009-2010 season set by the NBA is $457,588. So you have to add that amount to both slots left vacant by Afflalo and Sharpe, since the Piston roster had exactly 12 players before the trade.

There are different numbers associated with Jason Maxiell's contract. Some websites have him listed with a 4-year extension set at $5 million per year, instead of the escalating contract that I have(and that is normally used). Here is what the Pistons cap situation would look like if Maxiell's contract was set at $5 million per year.

So the Pistons committed salary is either $52.9 or $53.5 million, depending on how Maxiell's contract was structured. Which would leave the Pistons with $4.2-$4.8 million of cap space after the trade with Denver. What the Pistons do with that space is not yet known. There are rumors they will attempt to sign Glen (Big Baby) Davis, and there is some speculation that Dumars made the move to initiate a trade of larger proportions."

-All of the cap projections that I have seen have Max's contract at $5 million next season, so I believe that the projected total of $53.528, 793 million is the correct one. With the salary cap set at $57.7 million, we should have $4.2 million in cap space. That should be enough to bring in Glen Davis or Drew Gooden as a free agent acquisition and it also clears up a potential trade for Boozer or Chandler. Joe D. could go a lot of different directions so I am not sure if it is even fair to speculate. Either way, we need help in the front court and if the trade route is the one they may be going, then Max, Brown, Rip and Prince will be on the trading block.

-As for what we will be losing....

Afflalo appeared in 74 games this season and played in 16.7 minutes a night (16.5 in the playoffs). He was our best 3 point shooter last year (that will probably be Ben Gordon this year) and averaged roughly 5 points a game. More than anything, though, he was a dependable and good defender off the bench at the 2 guard spot. He will probably never be better than a second guard off the bench but he is the type of guy who could fill a role on a championship team (smart bench player who can shoot the 3/stretch the defense and play quality defense). With Gordon, Hamilton and Stuckey, I kind of liked the idea of giving Afflalo a little more minutes this season to help us on the defensive end of the court. Until I see the next move, and there will be a next move, I cannot really comment on this trade. We need frontcourt help, but I do feel as if Afflalo is a guy we will miss this season and in the coming years if we become a championship contender.
Sharpe was a terrible pick by Dumars. He rarely played in college at UAB, had off court trouble, and did nothing to stand out to warrant a selection when players like Mario Chalmers and Luc Mbah a Moute were available. This was always one of those picks that GM's sometimes make to show how smart they really are or believe that they are. No one had Sharpe on the radar and if Sharpe panned out, how good would that make Joe D. look? On the flip side, this pick tanked and we lost out on a chance to draft a guy like Mario Chalmers who would be a great backup PG, at least (he started every game for Miami last year). I like Joe D. and feel that he is a top 5 GM in the NBA, but this was an awful and inexcusable pick from day 1. This trade just confirms that.

Verlander ends first half with a bang in Tigers victory

2009-07-12T20:15:00.004-04:00

In a complete mismatch of a pitching matchup, Verlander dominated the Indians hitters and Ohka got clobbered by the Tigers. For once, what should happen in this crazy game of baseball did happen. Verlander went 7 innings and lowered his ERA to 3.38 by not allowing an ER in the game. He allowed 5 hits and 3 BB and struck out 8 batters. Seay, Ni and Miner combined to finish the last two innings. Clete Thomas was a double short of the cycle, Thames went 4 for 4, and Inge hit 2 HR's in prepping for the Home Run Derby tomorrow night. Post game thoughts...

-After a couple of subpar games by Verlander recently (for him), he responded today with a shutdown-type performance. He only threw first pitch strikes to 13 of 28 batters, and he had three particularly stressful innings with 20+ pitches in the 3rd, 4th and 7th innings. However, he had his curveball, slider and fastball all working today and he ended up overcoming those stressful innings. Besides the 8 K's, he induced 3 groundball outs and 10 flyball outs. Ideally, I would like to see Verlander become even more efficient and lasts longer than 7 innings. I still believe that that will eventunally come as a part of his maturation process. He is a special pitcher who has the peripheral numbers (top 5 in FIP and #1 in K/9) that suggest that his second half might be even better than his first half. Other than Greinke and Halladay, it could be argued that he is having as good of a season as any other starting pitcher in the AL.

-A note on Zach Miner's performance. I guess it is human nature to relax during a 10 run lead and not perform as well as one is capable of. With that said, giving up 3 BB with a 10 run lead is unacceptable. If they hit a home run, fine. But, to allow 3 BB in that situation is hard to fathom. I'm sure he got a stern talking to by Leyland after the game. Seay and Ni did not walk anybody, but the bullpen's collective inability to throw strikes on a consistent basis is becoming worrisome.

-Obviously, the three stars of the day on offense were Clete Thomas, Inge and Thames. Thomas and Thames, in particular, could become interesting stories as the year progresses. With Carlos Guillen on his way back to the big leagues within the next couple of weeks, Thames could find himself in a platoon with Guillen and Thomas currently finds himself in a platoon with Ordonez. Thomas needs to continue to provide good defense in right field, and hit right handers well. Since coming back up from Toledo, he has an OPS of 1.000 and is doing his part. With Ordonez a plus .800 OPS hitter against lefties, the Tigers may have found a solution to the Ordonez problem. Thames, likewise, will probably find himself in a platoon in the DH role with Guillen while both will get spot playing time in LF. Thames has absolutely killed lefties this year with an OPS above 1.000 and has struggled somewhat against right handers. Guillen will be able to spell Thames against righties and Thames should continue to get the playing time against lefties. He's earned it.

-With the Twins beating the White Sox, the Tigers head into the All Star break with a 3.5 game lead on the Sox and a 4 game lead on the Twins. It is certainly looking like a 3 team race at this point in time. This break should do a number of Tigers well, as they look to rest up and start the second half strong with a series against the Yankees starting on Friday.

Know Thy enemy: Tomo Ohka

2009-07-11T23:20:00.002-04:00

Today, in the final game before the All Star break, the Tigers are throwing out their ace against a pitcher who is a borderline major league starter at best. To put it bluntly, this is a mismatch. Of course, Luke French vs. Zach Grienke was a mismatch and we know how that turned out. Lets examine the matchup in depth.

Verlander is one of the few pitchers in the game in which it does not matter what team he is facing, and he should be expected to excel regardless of any potential mismatches against him. Against Cleveland this year, he has absolutely dominated. Here are the combined numbers for his 2 starts against them this year:

IP ER H SO BB
16 1 4 22 5

Needless to say, that is simply dominant. Historically, Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko and Grady Sizemore all have an OPS above .800 against him. This year, though, that has not really mattered. If anything, the 3.59 ERA he is sporting is misleading and not indicative of how well he has pitched and how well he should pitch as the year goes on. He has a 2.72 FIP that ranks in the top 5 in the game. His K/9 rate of 11.00 is the best in the game. And, he has cut down his walks to just a 2.73 BB/9 rate. His 1.20 WHIP is not at the level of an Edwin Jackson, but is still impressive. His fastball and curveball are both plus pitches and he has a WAR of 4.0 (5th in MLB). His last three starts he has allowed either 3 or 4 ER. Considering his peripherals and his success against the Indians this year, it could be time for Verlander to have another special pitching performance.

Now onto Ohka. He is a 6-1 righty who is 33 years old and a veteran who used to be a reliable starting pitcher. In 3 seasons with Montreal in 2002-2004, he posed ERA's of 3.18, 4.16 and 3.40, respectively. In 2005, he split time between Milwaukee and Washington (Montreal's franchise moved to Washington) and he posted an ERA of 4.04. Then, after 4 good years, the bottom fell out for him. He pitched one more year for Milwaukee before they let him walk as a free agent. He then had tours of duty for the Blue Jays, Cardinals, White Sox and Mariners before signing a contract with Cleveland this year. Up to this point, he has not recaptured the magic he had from 2002-2005.

This season, Ohka has a 6.35 ERA as a starter during his 3 starts. For the year, he has a 6.47 FIP, 1.47 WHIP and a K/BB rate of just 1.11. His HR/9 rate of 2.20 is awful. We can play some long ball with this guy.

Ohka has a 1.07 GB/FB ratio this year and is not nearly the groundball pitcher that he used to be with the Montreal/Washington organization. He only allows line drives about 16.7% of the time, but he has an incredibly high HR/FB ratio of 17.1%. Again, we can hit some home runs off him. He has been a reverse split pitcher this year with righties hitting for an OPS of .966 against him. Lefties have an OPS of .795. The largest difference is that lefties get on base at a much lower rate compared to righties. The slugging percentages are not that much different.

Ohka is a 3 pitch pitcher who relies on his slider slightly more than his fastball. The remainder of the time, he will probably use his cutter (which has been a plus pitch this year according to Fan Graphs). His velocity is nothing to write home about as his fastball only averages 88 MPH.

We only have 5 batters who have ever faced Ohko. One of them (Guillen) is on the DL and the other (Ordonez) will probably sit tomorrow as a part of that platoon. But, Miguel Cabrera has absoultely crushed him. In 30 career at bats, he has 14 hits. Of those, 7 were doubles, one was a triple and one was a HR. He has a .467/.515/.867 stat line against him. Hopefully, Ohka loses some sleep over that tonight.

Based on the numbers, we should expect a right handed heavy line-up tomorrow for this 1:05 start. Dusty Ryan will probably play in place of Laird to give Laird some rest before the All Star break. We should get to Ohka and Verlander should continue his good performance against the Indians. What should happen and what does happen are sometimes two different things though...

Pavano shuts down Tigers bats

2009-07-11T21:54:00.002-04:00

The Indians ended their 6 game losing streak against us with a 5-4 win. Carl Pavano pitched 8 strong innings, allowing only 2 ER and 0 BB. Kerry Wood entered the 9th with a 3 run lead and then promptly gave up a 2 run home run to Cabrera. Then, Thames, Thomas and Raburn were set down in order and our comeback attempt was all for naught. Galaragga allowed 4 ER in 6 innings of work and took the loss for the 8th time this season. Ni and Dolsi came in for 3 innings of relief work and allowed 1 ER, 3 hits, 0 BB and 1 SO. Tomorrow, we send Verlander to the mound to try and win this series and ensure at least a 2.5 game lead in the division before heading to the All Star break. Post game thoughts...

-As I mentioned in the preview, Pavano has had really good peripheral numbers this year and has been very unlucky this year. Hence, his ERA looks worse than perhaps it should. He threw first pitch strikes to 25 of the 28 batters he faced and was very efficient having only thrown 101 pitches through 8 innings. He could have come back in the 9th if need be and perhaps he should have. Now, we did waste some chances. The strikeout by Raburn and eventual tag on Thames coming home in the 3rd inning cost us big time. But, this is one of those games where you tip your hat to the opposing pitcher. If anything, Pavano easily could have pitched a shutout with a little better play on the Rabrun ball to center by Sizemore. I wouldn't look too much into this performance. Tomorrow, we should get to Ohko.

-This was a decent performance by Galaragga but I would have hoped for a little more from him. This was a tough matchup for him with several good lefties in the lineup, and sometimes he pitched like he knew that. In the 3rd inning, he walked Martinez and Choo to make the bases loaded instead of attacking the strike zone. Then, Hafner hit a blooper to left field that Raburn just missed hauling in on a "game of inches" type play. The ball squirted free and the Indians took a lead they never relinquished. According to Brooks Baseball, Galaragga nearly evenly split up his pitches tonight. He threw his slider 36 times and his changeup 34 times. His four seam fastball was thrown 28 times. Unfortunately, he had trouble locating the slider and change. Neither pitch was thrown for a strike more than 60% of the time. The bite that his slider had in his last start against the Royals was not there tonight. The 3rd inning, as mentioned above, was his worst inning. He threw only 10 strikes in 24 pitches in that inning. All in all, I still like Galaragga going forward as a #4 or #5 starter. But, starting him in a potential playoff game would scare me. I still would like to see us acquire another starting pitcher before the trade deadline.

-Ni continued to be a strike thrower with a 75% strike percentage. He did get charged with an earned run when Dolsi allowed the inherited runner to score. But, I still like Ni. Going forward, I would like to use him stritcly as a LOOGY when the rosters expand and the stretch run to the postseason continues.

-Dolsi pitched 1.2 IP tonight and allowed his inherited runner to score. He utilized his fastball, change and slider tonight. His fastball averaged roughly 95 MPH. But, as usual, he was wild and a couple of real good balls were hit off him. His ERA looks good in his short stint up here but that is very misleading, imo. Dolsi is probably on a short leash going forward and I do not see a real big role for him in the second half.

-Thomas took a bad route to one ball hit in OF but then also made two textbook defensive plays in RF at other points in the game. He also went 2 for 4 tonight. I like this platoon that Leyland has going with him and Ordonez, and I have liked Thomas's approach at the plate since he has returned from Toledo.

-It was nice to see Cabrera get a HR off Kerry Wood (who has been awful this year). But, he had a couple weak at bats that he normally would not/should not have against Pavano. I think the All Star break will do him good.

-Every series, the goal is to take 2 of 3. We still have the opportunity to do that tomorrow. We have our ace going and they have a terrible pitcher going in Tomo Ohka (sorry to be so blunt). On paper, we should take this game and head into the All Star break on a high note. Lets make that a reality.

Game 86: Galaragga looks to prove he is "back"

2009-07-11T18:25:00.003-04:00

After allowing only an earned run in each of his last two starts, Galaragga looks to prove that he is actually a legit option in the back end of the rotation and that his good starts against the A's and Royals had little to do with them being bad teams. Verlander dominating the Royals is one thing. Galaragga doing it leaves one skeptical. That is just the way it is. Today, he goes against a team with guys like Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez and Choo who should match up well with Galaragga. This is a big game for him.

In his last start against the Indians, he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings in a forgettable start. Sizemore and Choo both have an OPS above 1.000 and may need to be pitched around today. As mentioned yesterday, Choo is the best slider hitter on the Indians and that is Galaragga's best pitch. We will see what Armando has tonight.

Carl Pavano is opposing us tonight. He was always a pitcher that interested me, especially after his great 2004 season with the Marlins and his great postseason work in 2003 on their run to the title. Unfortunately, his numerous injuries during his days with the Yankees robbed him of his prime.

This year, he has returned to being at least a respectable back of the rotation starter. He has a 5.36 ERA, but he has peripheral numbers that suggest his ERA should decline as the year goes on. He does allow a .301 batting average against but his FIP of 3.76 comes with a real high BABIP of .344 and a criminally low LOB % of just 61.9%. His K/BB rate of 3.55 is outstanding. In other words, do not just look at his ERA when evaluating his pitching this year.

Pavano is a three pitch pitcher with a fastball, change, and slider. Both his slider and change have been plus pitches this year. Pavano has reverse splits this year with right handers hitting for a better OPS than lefties do against him. Ordonez, Inge and Everett all have an OPS above .800 against him. Obviously because of the platoon, Ordonez will not be getting a chance to improve upon those numbers today. Miguel Cabrera, in particular, matches up very well against Pavano (who doesn't he match up well against?). Could today be the day where he breaks out of his mini slump (2 RBI and an OPS below .700 in his last 12 games)? I say yes.

Lets take the second game of this series.

Site Update... again

2009-07-11T00:12:00.005-04:00

My week from hell continued with the passing of a second family member yesterday. Blogging and talking and writing about sports has been a good way to keep my mind off things like this in the past and not breakdown from it, so I might keep posting in the upcoming days. More than likely, though, posting will be sporadic for the next 4 days or so and for obvious reasons. Knock on wood, but I should be back to posting regularly again by next Wednesday (the showing and funeral are not until Monday and Tuesday).

Until then, here are some quick thoughts of mine...

Where would the Tigers be this year without Edwin Jackson? Dombrowski gets busted on a lot for going crazy on several contract extensions and the trading of Jair Jurrejens for Edgar Renteria. And, he should not be above that criticism. But, kudos to the trade of the baseball season, so far. Without Jackson, the Tigers are in 3rd place in the division and closer to the Indians and Royals than the Twins and White Sox. What a deal it has been so far.
With Brandon Bass off the market, I guess Joe D. might make a run at Glenn Davis. He would be an upgrade over Maxiell but with both on the roster, doesn't that just make Maxiell a redundant player. They are both (can I say it) overweight frontcourt players who are best served as guys coming off the bench. If Davis truly the target of Joe D. then I have to think that Max and Kwame deal for Tyson Chandler is being discussed.
Maybe the Jiri Hudler negotiations are not dead afterall? It will be interesting to see how this plays out but if Hudler does not want to play for us and would rather play for the money in Russia, I'm not sure I would want to force him to play on the Wings next season. That has trouble written all over it, if you ask me.
There has been a lot of concern about Inge in the HR derby. I too am concerned that it may hurt his swing. But, how many people thought Inge would be an All Star? He has almost been traded from the Tigers when Pudge signed with us and when Cabrera was brought over here. And yet, here he is. One of the top 5 3B in the game this season. Will he keep it up. Maybe not. But, I say let him enjoy this once-in-a-lifetime player who was converted to a utility player twice in his Tigers career. Truly one of the most surprising deserving All Stars in the last 10 years. No lie.
Training camp is less than a month away and the Big Ten Media Luncheon is at the end of July. Mmmm. Football is about to be in the air and I cannot wait.

Jackson's dream season continues

2009-07-11T00:09:00.001-04:00

Great game, huh?
-A great pitching duel between two of the top 15 starters in all of MLB. Jackson had some of his best stuff all year and Lee settled down after the 2nd inning. I was really impressed with a couple of those long at bats by Laird and Polanco during the innings where Lee started to get going a little bit.
-Laird continues to swing a good stick and have a good approach at the plate. You take away that one bad month (and I know you can't) and he has an OPS that would approach .800. He did have an uncharacteristic passed ball and looked a little sloppy blocking some other balls in the dirt. But, he is due for one of those games every now and again. Overall, he continues to impress me.
-Nice to see Anderson get the two RBI but his value to this team comes with his speed and defense. But, he continues to make baserunning errors and he needed to take charge in centerfield a little more than he did. When Guillen comes back, somebody is leaving. With the way Raburn and Thames have been swinging it, and with the platoon that Ordonez and Thomas now have going, who looks to be the odd man out? It seems obvious as of today that it is Anderson.
-Zumaya has the worst luck with injuries. Nothing new, I guess.
-Seay struggled a little bit but came up huge against Choo and Hafner. BTW, how far has Hafner fallen these last couple of years?
-Thank goodness for that HR by Thames in the 8th. He is what he is. He will strike out a lot and have a lot of weak at bats. But then, he will also run into one b/c he is so "country strong."
-Rodney had a shaky 9th but it should be noted that if Inge does not make that throwing error and/or if Cabrera scoops up that throw, then we get out of that inning with just one walk allowed. It is frustrating to watch but he entered the game with the lead and that is how he left it. Good enough for me.
-How great would a sweep feel before the All Star break?

Game 85: Tigers look to extend winning streak against Indians

2009-07-10T17:12:00.003-04:00

After 5 straight wins against the Indians, the Tigers will look to continue the streak tonight with Edwin Jackson heading to the mound. In his previous start against Cleveland, he went 7 strong innings with 0 ER, 7 K's and only six base-runners all game. His 1.07 WHIP is the best in the AL and his 2.59 ERA is good for the 3rd in the AL. His peripheral numbers would suggest a slight increase in ERA as the year progresses, but nothing would suggest a monumental fall. His 3.37 FIP is good and his 2.82 K/BB rate is well above average. The only real concerning thing is a real low BABIP of .260 and a LOB % of 76.5. Still, an ERA between the 3 to 3.5 range is very realistic and who would not have taken that to start the year?

He is still basically a two pitch pitcher with a great fastball and slider that are both plus pitches. Shin Soo-Choo is their best combined fastball-slider hitter so he will be one that Jackson will have to be careful with tonight. And, as usual, Victor Martinez must also be watched carefully. He is a great, great fastball hitter.

Opposing us tonight will be Cliff Lee, the Cy Young Winner last year for the AL. In his last start against us, he engaged in that epic duel with Justin Verlander which saw Verlander throw a complete game shutout and Lee toss 8 innings and only allowing 1 ER. Lee is that kind of pitcher and certainly capable of another performance like that. He has a 3.45 ERA this year with a 1.41 WHIP and a 3.33 FIP. Like usual, he does not strike out a lot of batters (he has a 6.38 K/9 rate) but he does not walk many, either. His BB/9 rate of 2.33 is very good. He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.30 and only has a HR/9 rate of 0.60. So, we should expect quite a few groundballs off the bats tonight.

Lee's two most frequent pitches are his fastball and changeup. According to Fan Graphs, he had a fastball that was 34.2 runs above average last year. That is simply sick. This year he has come back down to Earth a little bit, but it is still at 6.5 runs above average. His fastball comes in an 91-92 MPH on average.

His splits clearly suggest that right handed batters stand a better chance against him than lefties do. RH batters have an .800 OPS against him and lefties only have a .542 OPS.

Lee is coming off a decent start against the A's allowing 3 ER in 6 innings of work. But, it took 112 pitches to just get through that inning and we all know how bad the A's offense is. In addition to that, just a start before that Lee allowed 7 ER in 3 IP against the White Sox. So, maybe the Tigers are catching the ace at a good time?

Ordonez and Inge both have an OPS above .900 against him so they will be two players to especially keep an eye on tonight against Lee. Perhaps the platoon will help take some pressure off Ordonez and hide his deficiencies a little bit by only letting him face lefties? Tonight may be a good night to find out especially with a great pitcher facing off against him.

Hudler signs contract with Dynamo Moscow

2009-07-08T09:46:00.004-04:00

Quick update before I have to attend to some things throughout the day...

Hudler has been rumored to have signed a deal with a team in the KHL. Cause for concern? A little bit. But, all this really does is give Hudler more leverage in negotiating. Another team is not going to trade for him now with this coming out and this forces the Wings into a corner in negotiations. Either they pay him or he has another option and could just leave the NHL. If anything, it is a really smart business move from Hudler's perspective and it shows Holland that he is not going to get low balled during contract negotiations. I originally thought that he would sign for under $3 million. With this coming out, I think it is very realistic to think that he becomes one of the few Red Wings who are overpaid and signs for more than $3 million.

Stay tuned on this developing story.

UPDATE: It looks like Hudler is gone. Abdelkader is all but assured to be on our team now and this opens the door for Ritola, Ryan Oulhaen, Evan McGrath and recently acquired Jeremy Williams to have a shot as the #12/13 forward on the team. I would expect Holland to go out and sign another forward. Instead of the Travis Moen-type that I had been coveting, Holland needs to replace some of the offense he has lost. Look out for a Mike Comrie signing if he accepts an offer of $2 million or a little less. He has plenty of skill and his attitude problems could be fixed with Babcock and our veteran leadership. Plus, he has ties to the area having played at Michigan. For a list of other available free agents, Kyle has you covered.

-I was hoping to start posting regularly again tomorrow, but that is probably not possible with funerals and family gatherings to attend. More than likely, posting will be irregular until Monday or Tuesday with just quick and brief posts on various topics. I have not been able to watch much sports recently and won't be able to for a few more days still.

Some bad family news and a site update

2009-07-08T00:43:00.005-04:00

Even a blogger has a personal life. haha.

I got some bad family news recently and that is the cause for the lack of blogging the last two days. I'll be up and running again by Thursday, hopefully.

A bit of bad timing especially with the Pistons hiring Kuester, the Tigers recalling Clete Thomas, the Wings signing 3 depth players, the Rip Hamilton-Carlos Boozer rumor, etc. But, life happens.

In the meantime, if anybody has any suggestions about how to make the blog better or what you would like to see more of, then drop me a comment or an email (which can be found in a link in my "About Me" section).

Leino is signed, sealed and delivered

2009-07-06T14:43:00.002-04:00

Ville Leino has re-signed with the Wings today for roughly $800,000 a year. I had speculated before that this would be the amount and it makes sense. He actually earned more last year but this contract probably has assurances in it that he will be on the team for the whole year. Last year, he scored 13 points and earned some valuable experience in the NHL finals. He played on the fourth line a lot with Draper and Maltby and I would expect him to see a lot of time on that line to provide a viable scoring punch.

In a lot of ways, his game reminds me of Jiri Hudler. I don't think he will reach what Hudler has done so far in his career, but I could see Leino being a consistent 45-50 point producer on the 3rd and 4th lines with some time on the power play unit. He is not a great skater and I was not terribly impressed with him defensively, but for a 3rd or 4th line player who could play spot minutes on the top 2 lines, this is an outstanding deal and again shows why the Wings have the best front office in hockey.

The article also talks about Hudler filing for arbitration and I know a lot of fans are worried about that because he would command a deal between $3.5 and $4.5 million. Frankly, I am not worried. Maybe I am just blindly loyal to Holland and believe everything that has been said about Hudler loving it as a Wing, but I think a deal gets settled before the arbitration date for roughly $2.5 million a year for 2-3 years. Book it.

Game 82: Tigers look to get back on track against lowly Royals

2009-07-06T11:54:00.002-04:00

Armando Galaragga looks to continue to add stability to the back end of the rotation as he goes after his third straight win. His last start against the A's left much to be desired with 6 walks, but he again has a favorable matchup against the Royals offense. Here is what I wrote about Armando before his last start...

More than anything, his slider has lost its bite and opposing hitters are hitting it more. After being a plus, plus pitch last year for him, it has been a negative pitch for him. His changeup has actually improved greatly from last year, and yet, he is throwing that pitch 4 % less than last year and throwing his slider and fastball more than last year. I would like to see him rely more on his changeup and cut back a little with the slider to see if that makes a difference. He did do that last start and his last start was good, outside of the Jake Fox 3-run home run in the first inning. Coincedently, the A's hit the changeup worse than any other team in MLB. I think Galaragga can exploit that tonight and provide a good outing for a #5 starter. 7 IP, 3 ER tonight out of Armando would be outstanding, and I think he can do it.

In that game, he continued to use his changeup upwards to 20% of the time and he seems to feel more comfortable relying on that pitch. Developing that 3rd pitch could be pivotal as he tries to shake off a bad start to the season and solidify himself as a #4 or #5 starter for us. In his last start against the Royals he went 6 strong innings and only allowed 1 ER, and only Billy Butler, Alberto Callapso and Jose Guillen are the players on the Royals with any real success against him. At last word, Guillen was questionable for tonight. This has the makings of another chance for a good start for Galaragga.

Opposing him tonight will be Gil Meche, who's 4-8 record and 4.20 ERA do not display how good of a pitcher he is or could be against us. The last two years he has had an ERA under 4 for the Royals and his FIP and WHIP in both of those years were better than league average. At his best, he is a good #2 starter. The problem for Meche is usually his consistency. In 6 starts this year he has allowed 4 or more runs, and even allowed 9 ER in a game against the Cardinals on June 21st. On the other hand, he has 10 starts with 2 ER allowed or less. So, he could be great against us or bad.

This year he has a 3.73 FIP and a 1.45 WHIP. His K/BB rate of 1.85 is right around league average and his HR/9 rate of 0.64 is very good. More than anything, he has had some bad luck this year. He has a BABIP of .320 and a LOB % of just 68.8%. He can, and probably will, pitch better as the season goes on.

He actually pitches much better on the road with a 2.70 ERA. His splits suggest that right handed batters hit better against him with a .780 OPS compared to lefties hitting for an OPS of .674 against him. But, the difference is not that severe. He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.51 so he has been a groundball pitcher this year more so than ever before. And, he is truly a 4 pitch pitcher as he uses his fastball, slider, curveball and changeup all more than 10% of the time. Accoring to Fan Graphs, his best pitch is his curveball. His fastball, which comes in on average around 02 MPH is also a plus pitch.

In his last start against us, he only last 2.1 IP as he allowed 4 runs, but only 2 ER. He also had 3 walks and 6 hits allowed in that game so the potential is there, as I mentioned earlier, to hit this guy hard tonight. Of course, he also has the stuff to completely shut us down. Miguel Cabrera is 5 for 6 with 2 doubles and 2 HR against him, so it might be a night where we see Cabrera break out of his mini-slump.

-As always, I will be back later for my thoughts on the game.

Game 81: Stagnant offense and Porcello's failures a sign of things to come?

2009-07-05T22:48:00.003-04:00

We all saw the game. There is no need for a player-by-player offensive breakdown when there was no offense to speak of until a meaningless home run by Inge (who should be an All Star) in the 9th. Nick Blackburn has been hot lately and we caught him on maybe his best day and our worst day. That is baseball and it sucks, especially because we had a chance to take this series. And, while it is important to not overreact, what fun would it be if we didn't?

-This is what I wrote after Porcello's last start and I feel the same way. The kid needs a rest.

-Well, I feared this start was going to come for Porcello. I am by no means suggesting that I expect Porcello to continue to have a 4.1 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 5 ER stat line. But, I do expect his ERA to continue to rise into the 4's, and it is time for Leyland to get him some rest. We have a favorable schedule coming up with some off days and the All Star break worked in, and I think it will be extremely beneficial for the young guy to skip a start or two over this stretch. Considering how he has pitched recently, I think it is the best thing for our team both in the short term and long term. All of his peripheral numbers suggest that he is basically a 4.5 ERA-type pitcher this season. Sit him for a start, let him clear his head and rest that golden arm before the second half of the season, and let's see if he can turn those numbers around into his favor. His month of April was rough, and he turned it around with a 1.50 ERA for the month of May. Similarly, he can turn this poor end in the month of June to a good month of July.

This start did nothing to calm my fears. It is frustrating watching Porcello pitch because he has the talent and "stuff" to dominate but he is only 20. He is probably not ready yet for this workload. That home run he allowed to Morneau directly impacted the rest of that inning. When he is 30, that won't happen. As a 20 year old, it most certainly will. I say skip his next start and let him get rested over the All Star break and hopefully he will return to his month of May form. But, in his given role as the #3 starter, there is not another pitcher that I am more concerned about. It is going to be very interesting to see how he does in the second half of this season as the standings get tighter and the games get bigger.

-What can you say about the offense today? Pathetic is probably a good word. Again, it happens. We need another bat and Dombroski will land one before the trading deadline. Until then, I see no reason why Clete Thomas is not up here in place of Don Kelly or Josh Anderson. It is time for some new blood up here and Thomas brings a superior bat and glove than these two. We cannot keep having "mail-in" games like these and batting Don Kelly at the #4 spot is just ridiculous.

-Other than that, there is not much else to say. I'm concerned about Porcello and have been for awhile. We need another bat and it is time to see what Clete Thomas has got after his stay in Toledo. We are up 2 games in the division at the halfway point of the season and it is basically a three team race between us, Chicago and Minnesota. The last 10 games of this season we will be playing against those teams. Basically, that will define our season. Until then, we need to stay in the race and hopefully build on our lead before that pivotal stretch run.

-First things first, though. It is time to face the Royals in a 3 game series. Take 2 and I'll be happy. Tomorrow night, Galragga gets the party started against Gil Meche.

'Sheed to Boston

2009-07-05T22:36:00.003-04:00

And, just like that Rasheed Wallace is a relevant basketball player again. Reports are that Rasheed Wallace has officially ended his stay as a Detroit Piston and will be joining the Boston Celtics next season. Boston is also reportedly interested in Grant Hill, another former Piston great.

What does this mean for Boston? Well, Rasheed is a lot of things, but he is a talented basketball player and his presence coming off the bench could be enough to put them over the top again. The Big 3 became the Big 4 with Rondo's development into a top 5 PG in the NBA. If Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett can turn back the clocks for one more season, I have to think that they have as good a shot as anybody in the East of making it to the finals.

In a sense, this is a sad departure for me. Rasheed was the final piece to the puzzle in that magical 2004 championship run and it is hard not to remember his great play during that sretch run and the swagger that he gave us this year. And yet, Rasheed was maybe the most frustrating player that I have ever watched just as a fan of basketball. His skill set has no limitations and with the right drive and work ethic, he had the natural talent to become not only a very good player but a Hall of Fame player who could take over games and be the best player in the game. Unfortunately, Rasheed never lived up to that talent level and he was perfectly content being the #3 option on our team and going for 13-15 points a night while grabbing 7-8 rebounds. It was always said that the Pistons bucked the trend that year by not having a Hall of Fame talent lead them to the title. I never bought that. Rasheed, if he truly wanted to, could have been that guy. Like Sergei Fedorov, I am afraid that I will remember Rasheed more for what could have been (multiple NBA titles and several All Star appearances) then what was.

Game 81 preview: Tigers look to take series from the Twins

2009-07-04T23:28:00.004-04:00

On May 5th, Rick Porcello had his best game as a Tiger going 7 strong innings without allowing a run. His opponent? The lovely Minnesota Twins. A repeat performance would be greatly appreciated, thank you very much. If you haven't read my concerns about Porcello, here is the post I made prior to his last start when he allowed 5 ER in 4.1 IP against the worst offensive team in the AL in the Oakland Athletics. So, I am still concerned about Rick but he has had success against Minnesota in the past and he actually has a lower ERA on the road than he does at Comerica Park. The key for him? Forget the month of June and kick ass in July like he knows he can.

The opposing pitcher today will be Nick Blackburn, the "ace" of the Twins staff so far. He has a 3.10 ERA, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that his ERA will go up by about a run before the season ends. He has a slightly above average FIP and WHIP with a 4.07 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP. The book on Blackburn is that he does not strike people out or walk batters. He has a K/9 rate of 3.77. That is incredibly low. The league average is 6.87. So, if we are swinging and missing tomorrow, it will not be because of anything Blackburn brings. On the plus side for him, he has good control and rarely walks batters. His BB/9 rate of 2.26 is very good. He also does not allow a lot of home runs as his 0.75 HR/9 rate would suggest.

He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.21, so he is a groundball pitcher. He throws his fastball at an average of 90 MPH and uses his fastball roughly 62% of the time. His next two most common pitches are his cutter and curveball. According to Fan Graphs, his only plus pitch is his cutter. But, his other pitches are average and he does not really have a bad pitch that has been giving him trouble this season. His splits suggest that he is a terror against right handed batters and that lefties can have their way with him. Lefties have a .301/.350/.487 stat line against him. Right handed batters hit .231/.268.297 against him. So, needless to say, we should have a couple lefties in the lineup. More than anything, this is a matchup that really favors Curtis Granderson, especially because he hits the cutter better than anyone else on our team. Look for his slump to end today if the numbers hold true.

One not so encouraging sign for us is that his ERA has dropped in each month and he has pitched better as the season has wore on. In his last 10 starts, he has gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 ER.

Oh, but how about that start before the streak began? It was May 5th against the Tigers, and we lit him up for the tune of 6 ER in 3.1 IP. Cabrera, Granderson, Ordonez and Satiago all have 5+ AB against him and an OPS over 1.000. It goes without saying that they should all be in the lineup today.

Let's have a repeat of May 5th and take this series.

Game 80: Sometimes the other guys are just better

2009-07-04T20:16:00.002-04:00

Sometimes in professional sports the other team makes the play and wins. And, sometimes, the error of a ref can change things in a hurry. In today's Tigers game, I think we saw a little of both.

-I want to first point out what we all know already. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are really, really good. Like, really good. Mauer only went 1 for 3 but he has a presence at the plate that is undeniable and a sweet swing like few others have in the game. And Morneau went 4 for 4 in a game in which we could not do much about his brilliance. Edwin Jackson threw a good pitch that Morneau crushed for a home run. Later on in the game we brought in Bobby Seay, arguably our best reliever, to face Morneau and just like that the Twins had tied the game with a Morneau single. It happens. Both of those guys are superstars in MLB and one of the top 10-15 position players in the game. Miguel Cabrera can say the same thing about himself but we do not have two hitters like they do and that does give their middle of the order an advantage over ours.

-Over the course of a 162 game season, there is bound to be one game where a call or a non call by an ump alters the course of the game. In the 8th inning today in a tie ballgame, that moment happened to us. With a runner on first, Brandon Lyon threw a perfect breaking ball over the middle of the plate for strike 3 on Morales. Instead, the ump called it ball 2. The very next pitch Morales moved Tolbert into scoring position. Then, Nick Punto came up and continued his great play in this series (don't get me started on that) and drove home the winning run. If the right call is made on the strike, we have a 3-3 game going into the bottom of the ninth and who knows what happens. Oh, well. It happens.

-Jackson was a little erratic today but he again showed All Star form. He technically allowed 3ER in 6.1 IP, but the only runner he left was on first base so it is hard to fault him for that. Cuddyer just barely got his shot over the wall for a home run and Morneau simply put a good swing on the ball. It was hard to fault him for those, and he did manage 9 K's so it was not a completely wasted effort despite the fact that he did not get the win. More than anything, I would have liked to see a more efficient outing by Jackson. He only threw first pitch strikes to 12 of the 29 batters, and it took him 122 pitches to get through 6.1 IP. If he is going to throw that many pitches, it should be enough to get him through at least 8. He needs to work on his control in the next start.

-Seay and Lyon did not do their jobs today but I cannot blame them much. Seay got beat by two of the best left handed hitters in the game, and Lyon would have got out of the 8th inning unscathed if strike 3 was called on Morales. Still, he needs to get Punto out. He may a good defensive player, but Punto is NOT a good offensive player. He should not hit a game winning RBI.

Position player performances

Granderson- Ouch. Completely dominated all game. 3 K's in an 0 for 4 game. Liriano owns Grandy.
Polanco- 0 for 4.
Cabrera- 1 for 4. He's been outshined in this series by Mauer and Morneau.
Thames- 1 for 4. Our top 4 hitters went 2 for 16. We are not going to win many games when that happens.
Raburn- 1 for 3 as he keeps putting some good swings on the ball.
Inge- O for 4 with 3 K's. See comment on Granderson.
Ordonez- His best game of the year? A double in his first at bat, a lazer down the line in his second at bat that was foul, and then a 3 run home run. He has always had good numbers against Liriano and at the Metrodome so it is really not surprising. Kudos to him. Another 10-15 games like this and we might be on to something.
Ryan- O for 2 with a walk. He's only hitting .143 up here and he is capable of more.
Everett- 0 for 2 with a K and a BB. Good defense, as usual.

-If we win tomorrow, then this game is completely forgotten. Can Rick Porcello rise to the challenge? He gets the Twins "ace" tomorrow in Nick Blackburn. It should be a fun one.

Game 80: A day game after a night game for the ages

2009-07-04T09:57:00.004-04:00

After a 16 inning classic, the Tigers and Twins square off again today in a "nationally televised" game on Fox. Our bullpen was gassed last night and Zumaya and Dolsi are definitely not available today. Ideally, Edwin Jackson will pitch 7+ strong innings and make sure our bullpen is rested for Rick Porcello on Sunday. We need Jackson to have a good game today.

Jackson's ERA has risen each month (2.25 in April, 2.34 in May and 2.91 in June) so there is some concern entering this start and heading into the second half of the season. But, lets not kid ourselves. Jackson has been remarkable this year and better be an All Star this year. How good has he been? Lefties have an OPS of .542 and right handed batters have an OPS of .675 against him. So, there is really no favorable matchup against him. His 2.49 ERA ranks second in the AL and he has the best WHIP in the league at 1.04. He is currently 9th in innings pitched at 108 innings. Right now, he is on pace to go well over 200 innings so that is something to watch as his workload increases.

Some of his other numbers do suggest that his ERA should rise a little bit as the season wears on. He has a good FIP of 3.18 (11th in MLB) but his BABIP of .258 is very low and might not stay at that rate all year. His K/9 rate of 6.98 is slightly above league average, but he has kept his walks down and his K/BB rate of 2.90 is very good. Even better is his HR/9 rate of 0.58 and his opponent batting average is .216 (4th lowest in MLB).

Jackson is a groundball power pitcher with an electric fastball that averages 94.5 MPH. He is basically a two pitch pitcher with two plus, plus pitches in his fastball and slider. He will sometimes mix in a curve or changeup, as well.

In his last start against the Twins, he allowed 5 ER in 6 innings in a 7-2 loss. Most of that damage came in the 7th inning where Jackson failed to record an out.

Jackson's opposing pitcher in that first battle is also the opposing pitcher against us today in Francisco Liriano. Blessed with a golden arm that showed it in 2006 (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 10.71 K/9) he has since failed to recover that incredible form following surgery that knocked him out for all of 2007.

This year, Liriano is 4-8 with a 5.62 ERA, 4.53 FIP and 1.52 WHIP. His K/9 rate of 8.03 is still good but it is his struggles with his command that continues to ail him. His BB/9 rate of 4.22 is well above league average and his K/BB rate of 1.90 is below league average. He will get some strikeouts against us, but like Gio Gonzalez for Oakland, he will also put us on base with BB if we are patient. Liriano has a HR/9 rate of 1.20, which is below average for a starting pitcher. He does have a BABIP of .322 so some of his struggles could be contributed to bad luck.

He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.10, so we should expect to see more fly balls to come off our bats today. He is a 3 pitch pitcher with a 91.6 MPH fastball and a very good slider that comes in at 86 MPH. His changeup is also considered a plus pitch. More than anything, it has been his struggles with his fastball that have hurt him this year. That pitch is valued as a -18.0 by Fan Graphs. As far as his splits go, Liriano struggles much more against right handed batters than lefties. Right handed batters hit .284/.356/.504 against him compared to .232/.337/.305 against lefties. So, we should expect to see Ordonez and Everett back in the lineup today. Granderson has K'd 10 times against him in his career so that is something to be careful of today for Curtis.

Of late, Liriano has pitched well. He had a 3.77 ERA in June without a bad start sprinkled in there. Interestingly, he forced more groundballs than flyballs in his June starts. His BB/9 rate for that month was still over 4, though. It is clear that he is still struggling with his command even as his stuff appears to be getting back to what it once was.

Cabrera and Inge both match up very well with Liriano (but who doesn't Cabrera match up well with?) They are our two best fastball hitters and are both right handed. Liriano might want to pitch around Cabrera, at the very least. In his last start against us, Cabrera did homer off Liriano but he mostly shut everyone else down by going 7 innings and only allowing 2 ER.

After last night's game, I'm not sure how this one will even come close to matching it. But, another win again against the Twins would still probably feel just as sweet.

So, some things to look out for today...

Will the Tigers show patience against Liriano and get BB?
Will Liriano continue to pitch as well as he did in June?
Can Edwin Jackson give our bullpen a much needed rest by giving us 7 to 8 quality innings?
Will Jackson's struggles continue against the Twins?
Granderson has had a tough time against Liriano in his career and Cabrera and Inge should have a favorable matchup. Will these hold true today?

Game 79: Are some games truly more important than others?

2009-07-03T23:11:00.005-04:00

I have never believed that there were ever "big" games in a 162 game season. I have never believed that momentum ever truly swung with one game. A baseball season is a marathon like no other professional sports season. There are so many peaks and valleys that it is hard to get too high or too low during any of it. Just look at all of the storylines we have had in 79 games:

Ordonez, two seasons removed from a run to the MVP award, is on the verge of being released.
Willis still cannot find the strike zone and is on the DL for probably the rest of the year.
Edwin Jackson has been one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball a year after being a #5 starter for the Rays.
Verlander has had a bounce back season to All Star form
Brandon Inge is having a career season and should make the All Star team
We have nearly $50 million tied up to players who will make no positive contribution to us this year (Sheff, Robertson, Bondo and Willis) and we are still in the thick of the division race
Jim Leyland was given a two year extension

And, I could give many, many more story lines than those. So, I do find it hard to say that this win in 16 innings is a "big" win. A "big" win for me does not happen in the regular season in the NBA, NHL or MLB regular season unless we are in the final weeks of the season. But, what I have always thought is that games like these (tough, close games that you pull out) do add up. If a team loses a number of close games, then it starts to wear on them as the season progresses. Similarily, if a team wins a lot of close games, I have always felt that that team develops a sort of belief that they will somehow come back and win that game.

If the Tigers had struggled winning close games all year, then I'm not sure if one win would turn that around. But, the Tigers are 25-11 in games decided by one or two runs. I have always held the opinion that at some point stats like that stop becoming a coincidence and instead speak to that "it" factor that some teams have. Regardless what happens tomorrow or Sunday, I like this team. Some players need to get the broom. Sure. But, I like this team a lot. We might have another special run to the postseason in front of us, and games like this one and the Raburn walk off against the Cubs a week or two back give me that hope. We will see, but this team has got to love being in close games and they must have a world of confidence in games like that. Imo, that helps us an awful lot and gives us an advantage over a team who has struggled in close games.

As far as the game itself...

-Slowey was basically throwing us batting practice. Thames crushed a home run. Josh Anderson even got a triple. This is the 4th start in his last 5 where Slowey struggled. It is nice to see the Twins rotation (which I am really not impressed with) start to to get beat up a little.

-Any win over the Twins is important. Any win over a team in our division is important. This game would have been especially hard to take after we blew a six run lead. Miner blew it with one bad inning and then our bats would completely cold. Thankfully, R.A. Dickey's knuckelball was extremely hittable tonight. He had a 0.66 ERA in June.

-Lucas French went 4.2 innings with 2 ER, 6 hits, 2 BB and 3 SO's. He was pulled after just 2 outs in the fourth inning and replaced by Zach Miner. He ended up only throwing 81 pitches, and put 50 of them in for strikes. They put some good swings on him and Cuddyer, specifically, was really putting some good cuts on the ball against him. His stuff was pretty much what we expected. Upper 80's on the fastball and a decent slider that got him a couple SO's. Is he the answer in the back of the rotation? Too early to say, and his first start was not better than Figaro's. But, he did battle pretty well and I was especially impressed when he only allowed 1 run in the 3rd inning despite being in quite the jam. At the very least, French has earned another start.

-In Zach Miner's previous 15 innings of relief work, he allowed 2 ER. Tonight, he allowed 5 ER in 0.2 IP. To put it bluntly, he was awful. He got behind hitters and got the ball up in the zone too much. The interesting thing about Miner is that he is prone to very bad outings like this. On June 3rd, for example, he allowed 4 ER in 0.1 IP against Boston and on April 13th he allowed 8 ER in 3.1 IP against the White Sox. Hence, his ERA looks very bad at 4.98 even though the majority of his outings are pretty good. He just has to cut down on those type of outings, though.

-Ni went up against Mauer and Morneau and got them both out. What else can you say? Good job, kid.

-Lyon and Seay, as usual, got the job done. Lyon did allow two hits and Seay nearly allowed a home run to Mauer, but they continue to impress in the back end of our bullpen.

-This was one of the best performances of Joel Zumaya's career. He struck out four batters, had great command and great stuff. 53 pitches and he still struck out Cuddyer with the game on the line? Unbelievable.

-And while we are on the topic of Zumaya, how about the decision by Leyland to not only keep him in despite throwing over 50 pitches but to also walk Mauer and Morneau to make the bases loaded. That shows a tremendous amount of respect for the M & M boys, and a lot of confidence in Zumaya. He delivered and for once it is definitely time to give Leyland credit for making a decision that not a lot of managers would have had the guts to make.

-Rodney was also brilliant tonight. 2 IP with a SO and no baserunners. Tough as nails tonight when we needed him to be.

-Dolsi got two chances to close the game for us, and thank goodness he finally did. 64 pitches for him tonight, 2 ER, 4 hits an error, and he struggled with the signs that Laird was giving him. I was not impressed with his stuff tonight, but he did manage to outperform R.A. Dickey and that is all that matters. Does he get demoted to Toledo to help shore up our tired bullpen?

Position player performances:

Granderson- 2 hits, 2 runs and two BB. I will take that .500 OBP from my leadoff hitter all day, everyday.
Polanco- Prior to tonight, he had two games all year in which he struck out twice. Tonight, he struck out three times. Then he gets hit below the belt on a foul ball, and singles home a run in the 14th inning on the very next pitch. Not a lot of guys could do that. Also, not very many guys would be able to get another clutch RBI in the 16th inning. Quite a performance by Polanco tonight.
Cabrera- He went 1 for 8 with a near home run off the wall that just went for a double. He continues to make nice plays at 1st base. He has obviously had much better days at the plate.
Thames- He is what he is: sometimes he will run into a home run (like he did in the 3rd inning) and most of the time he will not do much else. He went 2 for 5 before Raburn took his spot.
Raburn- He got doubled up after Ordonez hit a line shot to the second baseman. Other than that, though, he got 2 hits and a big RBI in the 16th inning.
Don Kelly- One hit tonight before being replaced by Ordonez. I have to wonder how long it will take for him or Josh Anderson to be replaced by a more deserving OF like Clete Thomas.
Ordonez- I said he had to step up his production this weekend, and he did get a big RBI knock in the 16th inning. That is step one. Now, perform on Saturday and Sunday.
Inge- 1 for 6 but he did get on base with 2 HBP.
Josh Anderson- He got a triple for us. He also made a horrendous play in the outfield that contributed to two of their runs, and continues to have weak at-bats. He or Kelly needs to go.
Laird- This has got to be a tough game for a catcher. He battled through the extra innings and hit a HR. With continued rest b/c of the emergence of Dusty Ryan, I think he might be able to continue this hitting into the second half of the season and not tire out.
Santiago- 1 for 6 at the plate. Bad night for him despite a favorable pitching matchup against Slowey.

-Edwin Jackson going for us tomorrow against Francisco Liriano. Jackson needs to go at least 7 innings and probably even more than that. Our bullpen is gassed and only Ni, Seay, Miner, Lyon and Rodney are available. And, Leyland would prefer to rest some of those guys. If Jackson has a complete game in him, it would be a great time to bring it out for tomorrow.

-Finally, here is the minor league recap provided to us by Bill at The Detroit Tigers Weblog.

Game 79 preview: French vs. Slowey

2009-07-03T17:32:00.005-04:00

Kevin Slowely looks to become the AL's first 11 game winner and prove once again why wins is an overrated stat. Nonetheless, he is 3-0 against the Tigers with a 4.57 ERA so he gets the job done against us. For the year, he has a 4.41 ERA, 4.14 FIP, and a near-league average WHIP of 1.40. The most impressive thing about Slowey is that he basically does not walk people. His 1.54 BB/9 rate is outstanding and so is his K/BB rate of 4.73. He allows home runs at a decent clip with a HR/9 rate of 1.44. What is perhaps most interesting of all is his absurdly high BABIP of .348. I have to think that will drop and by the end of the year his ERA will probably be around 4.00. Basically, he is an innings eater (on pace to throw nearly 180 innings) and would be a very good #3 starter on a championship team.

His GB/FB ratio of 0.69 suggests that he is a flyball pitcher. In fact, 47.2% of batted balls against him are fly balls. About 20% are line drives. And, about 10% of those fly balls will end up being a HR, so that is something to watch tonight with some of our flyball hitters (hello, Mr. Thames and Granderson).

Slowey will not strike many people out, and his lack of velocity would suggest that. His fastball averages about 89 MPH. His pitch selection in and of itself is quite interesting. He uses a fastball-type pitch 69% of the time and then three other pitches that he uses no more than 13% and no less than 8.5% of the time. The slider, changeup and curveball are his next favorite pitches but there is a chance that he could use each of them equally. Fan Graphs suggests that his best pitch is his fastball, and that his three other pitches are not plus pitches. One other thing that should be pointed out is that he throws a first pitch strike 68% of the time. The league average is 58%. He will lull you to sleep with how good of command he has.

On the plus side, 3 of his last 4 starts have been a little shaky. He has allowed at least 3 ER in those 3 starts and did not make it past the sixth inning in any of his last 4 starts. As far as his splits go, lefties hit very well against him with a .349/.390/.538 stat line. We should hit some lefties tonight against him (Granderson, Kelly and Santiago, please). As far as our team goes, he is the type of pitcher we struggle the most with. We have a worse OPS+ against finesse pitchers than against power hitters, and a worse OPS+ against fly ball pitchers than against ground ball pitchers. Slowey is a finesse, fly ball pitcher.

As far as the Twins are concerned, they do struggle a little bit more with left handed pitchers (Jason Kubel, in particular, is terrible against left handed pitching). On the other hand, they do their best against finesse pitchers, which is what French will provide for them. So, it could be a little give and take tonight for French. I already broke down French's numbers in this post, and I think he has the potential to be a serviceable starter for us. Facing off against Morneau or Mauer, he had better be.

For a break down of French's limited stay with the Tigers so far, Fire Jim Leyland provides some good info.

UPDATE: No Ordonez tonight. And, unlike what he did against Brett Anderson, Leyland is listening to the stats tonight an is batting 4 lefties against Slowey.

1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Marcus Thames, DH
5. Don Kelly, LF
6. Brandon Inge, 3B
7. Josh Anderson, RF
8. Gerald Laird, C
9. Ramon Santiago, SS

Scouting the Minnesota Twins

2009-07-03T16:22:00.002-04:00

The Twins enter play today 41-39 and just three games back of your first place Tigers. Thanks to Morneau and Mauer, it is likely that they will be a thorn in our side all season. Lets check the numbers in comparison to AL teams (first number) and to the Tigers (second number).

Offense
Batting Average- .269 (6th, 8th)
Runs- 379 (8th, 9th)
BB/K - 0.56 (4th, 11th)
OBP- .342 (7th, 10th)
SLG- .420 (9th, tied for 7th)
OPS-.762 (7th, 10th)
BABIP- .308 (3rd, 10th)
Runs Created- 383 (6th, 11th)
wOBA- .334 (8th, tied for 9th)
Batting value- 22.8 (7th, 9th)

-As you can tell, the Twins are pretty much a middle-of-the pack offensive team and is more efficient than the Tigers offense. They draw more walks, strikeout less, get on base more, have a better OPS and have created more runs. The Twins have four guys with an OPS above .800 (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel) and two other guys with an OPS above .700 (Brendan Harris and Denard Span). At the bottom of their order, though, they struggle even worse than we do as everyone else with 150+ at bats has an OPS below .625. We need to limit the damage the top of the order will do to us, and then feast on their poor batters at the bottom of the order.

Pitching
I am just going to concern myself with the relievers because I am going to break down their starters on an individual basis for each game. So, how about that Twins bullpen?

ERA- 3.82 (4th, 10th)
FIP- 4.54 (10th, 9th)
WHIP- 1.31 (4th, 10th)
BABIP- .278 (2nd, 7th)
K/9- 7.15 (10th, 11th)
BB/9- 3.57 (3rd, 12th)
K/BB- 2.00 (7th, 12th)
LOB %- 77.5 % (2nd, 10th)
HR/9- 1.18 (11th, 9th)

-So, the Twins again appear to have the better bullpen. They rarely walk batters, leave a high percentage of men on base and their WHIP and ERA are both in the top half of the league. If their is one glimmer of hope for their performance to fall off, it is that they do allow quite a few home runs, and their FIP is high with a low BABIP. Can they sustain that performance?

As usual, Joe Nathan is the rock in their bullpen. He has 21 saves with a 1.44 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 1.95 FIP, and a sick K/BB ratio of 6.50. He does have 2 blown saves but he should still be an All Star this season. Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and R.A. Dickey all have 20+ appearances and ERA's under 3. The back end of their bullpen, though, can be had against guys like Jesse Crain and Craig Breslow. But, the front end of their bullpen is very, very good.

Defense
Perhaps surprisingly, the Twins defense has not been that good this year. Their combined UZR of -11.3 ranks 20th in MLB. On the other hand, the Tigers rank third in that stat with a UZR of +27.1. SS Brendan Harris, and CF Carlos Gomez are plus defenders, 3B Joe Crede might be a Gold Glove winner, and LF Denard Span might be one someday, as well. But, their other 4 positional players are below average defensively. With that said, Joe Mauer is great defensively and there is no stat that really shows that.

-Overall, the Tigers are 1-4 against the Twins this year and this is an important series, imo. Will it define our season? Of course not. But winning this series could propel us into the second half of the season with some much needed confidence. Bill disagrees with me, and Lee offers a unique look at the Twins-Tigers comparisons.

Could Lucas French be our Zach Miner circa 2006?

2009-07-03T14:33:00.006-04:00

During our pennant run in 2006 we featured a great top 4 of the rotation of Kenny Rogers, Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman. Once Mike Maroth went down with an injury, we needed someone else to come in and shore up our pitching staff. Enter Zach Miner. Before his final two disastrous starts, Miner had a 4.27 ERA in 14 starts, 11 starts where he went at least 5 innings and he did not walk more than 3 batters in any of those starts. Miner's ability to add that stability at the back end of the rotation for two and a half months helped pave the way for the Tigers to earn a playoff spot that season. The question now becomes: can Lucas French provide that same type of stability at the back end of rotation? Lets make some comparisons by looking at the numbers...

In 2006, Miner was 6-0 and had a 2.82 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in Toledo. This season in Toledo, French is 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA, 3.16 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. Those are fairly comparable numbers and one could argue that French has superior numbers. But, the comparisons should not stop there, and French's numbers will continue to look better.

Player K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 .AVG BABIP LOB %
French 7.93 2.20 3.60 0.66 .236 .291 71.8
Miner 5.71 3.10 1.84 1.06 .230 .283 75.2%

So, when looking at their minor league stats for that year, French had superior numbers except for batting average against and LOB %. His superior K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9 rate, WHIP and FIP is certainly more than encouraging as he makes his case for the rotation tonight.

Samuelsson signs with the Canucks

2009-07-03T13:17:00.002-04:00

Well, it is official: Mikael Samuelsson has signed a 3 year deal at $2.5 per year with the Vancouver Canucks. I can't blame him for leaving and based on our contract offer to him, I am not sure if the Wings are too upset by this, either. Once Hossa left we could have had either Jiri Hudler or Sammy. Both players probably could be had for between $2-2.5 million. Despite the fact that they could trade Hudler and get back a prospect or draft pick for him, they still valued Hudler over Sammy. The 7 year age difference probably had something to do with that, and Hudler's importance on the power play.

The interesting debate now becomes: who takes Sammy's spot on the point of the second power play unit? In the playoffs, that responsibility was given to Brad Stuart when Rafalski was injured. However, Babcock loves Jonathon Ericcsson and I think his reported 100 MPH shot from the point is something that will be hard to pass up. He and Kronwall on the back end of the second PP with their skill and shots would probably make up one of the best second-units in the game. Many fans were anxiously awaiting the day that Samuelsson was taken off the power play unit. That day has now come. But, still, for all of his faults, he was still a very good role player at a $1.2 million cap hit who played on all four lines during his 4-year stay here, and was at least decent on the PP. He also hit 20 goals with us and was an integral part of 3 trips to the conference finals, two trips to the Stanley Cup finals and a Stanley Cup victory. Hats off to you, Sammy.

Just for old time sake: Sammy scores OT winner against Chicago.

Pistons odds and ends

2009-07-03T11:03:00.003-04:00

In a somewhat surprising move, the Pistons have guaranteed the contract for Deron Washington. Matt over at Detroit Bad Boys is speculating that this means that Rip Hamilton is on the way out.

"It’s a bit curious the team decided to guarantee Washington on the eve of summer league — why not wait a couple of weeks until the coaches can see him up close? — but assuming Greenberg’s intel is correct, the Pistons now have six guards on the roster (Stuckey, Bynum, Gordon, Afflalo, Hamilton and Washington) …

Anyone else think Rip Hamilton is on the way out of town? At 31 years old, he’s suddenly the oldest player on the team, not to mention the highest paid. At 6-7, Washington can also play forward, but the Pistons just drafted a trio of small forwards, and, as strange as it sounds, Dumars has already hinted that all three might make the roster."

-I do find this move somewhat curious. But, at 6'7", Washington could also play a little at the 3 spot if need be, and I doubt he sees much time this year. If anything, this may be a move made simply to get him stateside and to let him get a lot of playing time in the NBDL.

Last season, after the Pistons took him with the 59th pick in the NBA draft, he played in Israel. He averaged 15.5 points per game and nearly 7 boards and 1 assist. Here is a report from Draft Express from last season:

"Portsmouth Invitational Tournament: Day Four
April 14, 2008
Deron Washington, one of the local favorites, had his best performance in his final game, scoring 21 points, including a surprising 4-5 shooting from beyond the arc, much higher than his regular season statistics would have you think he was capable of. This game really showcased Washington’s athleticism as he was given several opportunities in the open floor to make plays for his team. In the half court set he did show a quick first step but his lack of tremendous ball handling or savvy kept him from being more effective at taking defenders off the dribble. As was the case during the regular season he was inconsistent on the offensive end, making both impressive and poor plays when he had the ball. While there were flashes of ability at multiple points throughout the week, Washington confirmed what we already knew about him: he is a tremendous athlete with a poor basketball IQ and plenty of skill development needed. Defensively he gambled excessively and seemed to play with a reckless abandon that had to make those around him nervous, as his play frequently borders on dirty. Most concerning was his poor body language and the way he just didn’t seem to fit in with anyone else on the team, not cheering his teammates on, and showing very little regard for making anyone except himself look good."

-A lot of mixed reviews there. At the draft combine he had a 40 inch vertical leap, so the athleticism is certainly there. But, considering the reports on his lack of ball handling or basketball IQ, he seems like little more than a guy who comes off the bench in a blowout to excite fans with a good dunk. In order to become anything more than that, he needs to pack on some weight, and develop a better shooting touch. At Virginia Tech, in his final season, he shot 41.6% from the field, 26.9% from 3 point land, and just 67.1% at the free throw line.

-In other news, Rasheed Wallace is clearly a wanted man. The Celtics have offered the full mid-level exception for two years to 'Sheed. Last year, he became incredibly disinterested with the Pistons and was little more than an average player who caused more harm than good with those ever-present on-court tantrums. But, 'Sheed on a contender as a backup who could provide 25 minutes a night would be an ideal situation. The Celtics have maybe 1 year left to really make another run at a crown and they are going for it with Wallace. Rasheed's plus defense against Dwight Howard also has probably popped into the Celtics mind. I still imagine that Cleveland and San Antonio will both make runs at him, though. This is not quite a done deal.

-According to CBS Sports, we could see a potential sign-and-trade between the Pistons and Bulls for Gordon and Iverson.

"Ben Gordon to the Pistons is a done deal. The method by which he will get there is still under discussion.

CBSSports.com has learned that the Bulls and Pistons may yet revisit Detroit's agreement with Ben Gordon and instead investigate a sign-and-trade that would send Allen Iverson to Chicago.

Discussions have not yet reached the highest levels of both organizations, but the revised look at how Gordon goes from Chicago to Detroit would benefit Gordon and the Bulls. Gordon would get an extra year, and thus more money, by signing with the Bulls and getting traded. The Bulls, who currently are getting nothing for losing him, would get Iverson -- a fading future Hall of Famer who would get to finish his career in a major market as long as he's willing to accept a secondary role.

It's a farfetched scenario, and not everyone involved would be on board -- particularly the Pistons. The major sticking point would be how to sweeten the deal for Detroit, which would only consider such an option if it would provide significant cap savings. The Pistons took themselves out of the 2010 free-agent sweepstakes by agreeing to terms with Gordon and Charlie Villanueva on the first day of the free-agent negotiating period. Those agreements are not binding until July 8, when the league-mandated moratorium is lifted and the league and players association agree on the salary cap and luxury tax for the 2009-10 season.

A person familiar with the situation said the Pistons would flat-out refuse to entertain a sign-and-trade for Gordon unless it provided significant savings. The Bulls, too, may not be eager to do business with Gordon, whose agent did not give the team a chance to match Detroit's offer."

-The author is right about one thing: this is very farfetched. Unless this has the potential to give us some additional salary cap relief, I see no way that the Pistons would be willing to do the Bulls any favors. And, why would the Bulls even have any interest in Iverson? I cannot see this happening.

Where things stand with NHL free agency.

2009-07-03T10:20:00.003-04:00

In the post below, I updated you guys on the contract negotiations for our three remaining free agents. Now, it is time to see where things stand with the other free agents out there. Currently, there are no rumors about who the Wings might be going after. In my Red Wings Free agency preview, I outlined 5 players I could see the Wings targeting. Thus far, there has not even been a reported interest and three of the players signed elsewhere.

Ian Laperriere got a 3 year, $1.23 million per year deal from the Flyers. The length would concern me on this deal, especially with his reckless playing style. For one year, I would have implored the Wings to take that salary amount. For 3? I would have passed on it.
Samuel Pahlsson signed a three year deal with Columbus to fill their role as a 3rd line center. I have yet to find out the salary amount so I cannot really comment on this signing.
And, for the overpayment of overpayments, John Madden signed a 1 year deal with the Blackhawks for $2.75 million. I wanted him for a little over a million a year. Apparently, GM Dave Tallon sees something in Madden that I do not. $2.5 million and above should be reserved for top 6 players. Madden scored 23 points last season and has never scored more than 43 points. He is not a top 6 forward, and the Hawks offered a salary that suggests that he is. In addition, Madden is not nearly the defensive player he was in the past. He has been a negative player in the plus/minus department for 3 of the past four seasons and here are some Behind the Net Stats that confirm that he is coming off a poor defensive season:Here are some Behind the Net stats that agree with my assertion.

This past season, Madden had a rating of -1.38 (plus/minus in comparison to the other players on the team). Of the regular forwards on the team, only Jay Pandolfo had a worst rating. His CORSI rating was -7.7 (an overall player rating). Among forwards, only Pandolfo and Shanahan had worse ratings. Of New Jersey forwards who played in at least half of the team's games, he had the second worst GA/60 minutes with a 2.32. $2.75 million for an average 3rd line center who will be 37 next season? I cannot understand what is going on in Tallon's head. They still need to re-sign Cam Barker and Kris Versteeg and two of Trow Brouwer, Ben Eager and Colin Fraser. Counting a backup goalie, as well, they have roughly $7 million left in cap space. Barker and Versteeg will command over $3 million each. Somebody has to be moved now and I am not sure signing an over-the-hill defensive center for that amount is worth the cost of losing someone under the age of 25. Ok. End tangent.

-Travis Moen and Todd Marchant are still available but I think Marchant is out of our price range. Other possible options include P.J. Axelsson, Mike Grier, Manny Malhotra and Taylor Pyatt. Ultimately, I expect the Wings to get a deal done with Leino and Hudler at a fair price and then wait until training camp to sign a 4th line forward. In the past, they have invited a couple players to camp with the hopes that somebody will earn a roster spot. That is how Dan Cleary and Sammy earned spots on our team. With such limited cap space, I would expect something similar to happen unless they could land a proven fourth liner like Moen at a discount price.

Red Wings Odds and Ends

2009-07-03T09:42:00.002-04:00

-According to the Free Press, the Red Wings are closing in on a 2 year deal for Vile Leino. No financial numbers were given but I would imagine it is between a $800,000 and $900,000 cap hit. Leino had 9 points in 13 regular season games and got some experience in the Stanley Cup finals. I imagine he will play on the 4th line early on withe the potential that he could play top 6 minutes if the need arises.

In that same article, Holland talks about the Mikael Samuelsson contract negotiations.

But general manager Ken Holland said Thursday he's "not optimistic" that he'll be able to keep unrestricted free agent Mikael Samuelsson, who is seeking a long-term deal averaging upwards of $2 million a year. The Wings want to keep Samuelsson closer to $1.5 million a year.

-Make no mistake about it, that is a low ball offer to Samuelsson. He ranked tied for 152nd in the league in scoring this past season. So, he is a #5/6 forward on most teams in the league (stats-wise) and that tends to correlate to a 2 million dollar salary, or one slightly above that (174 forwards earned 2 million dollars or more this year).

And, considering his decent two-way play, experience and size, that is not an overpayment. Not even close. In fact, $2 million is probably what he should get with a fair deal.

At the very worst, he would play on the 3rd and 4th lines for his 2-3 year deal, and he will probably be one of the best and most versatile 3rd and 4th line forwards in the game. There are worst ways to spend money as a GM.

Essentially, though, it seems as if they are more keen on the idea of keeping Hudler. Once Hossa walked, the Wings could keep one of Sammy or Hudler. Based on this article and this report from Babcock's Death Stare, we can conclude that they valued Hudler more so than Samuelsson.

"As some of you know I live in Novi, the town that nearly all of Detroit’s Swedes call home. I’ve got confirmation that Samuelsson’s house is sold."

-So, how are those contract negotiations going for Hudler? Again, from the same article:

"Restricted free agent Jiri Hudler plans on filing for arbitration before the weekend. At that point, the Wings can choose whether the arbitrator should decide on a one-year or two-year deal. Hudler, 25, who made $1.15 million last season, will see his salary increase anywhere from the $2.5 million the Wings are offering to possibly an award in the $3.5-million to $4-million range. If the Wings don't like the arbitrator's number, they can trade Hudler."

-While I do believe that the Wings management likes Hudler more so than Samuelsson, they are not crazy. Hudler is not worth over $3 million a year, and yet, he could command that. Among forwards, he finished tied for 73rd with 57 points this past regular season. His agent could argue that he is a legit top 6 forward and since he is only 25, he could make an argument that he is only going to get better. Having watched Hudler, though, he is not a high potential player. His poor skating and lack of size is a good bet to always hold him back as nothing more than a bottom-tier second line player who can really light the lamp on the power play. At even strength, though, his defensive deficiencies cannot be hid and that is why he does not get top 6 minutes on our team. It will be interesting to see where these contract negotiations go.

Villanueva brings untapped offensive potential and bad defense

2009-07-02T22:23:00.003-04:00

This is a second in a three part series that will look at Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and the Pistons overall roster. Scroll down to find the posts on Ben Gordon. What follows is a post on the $7 million dollar man.

-A lot of us saw this coming. Dumars was adamant that he wanted two impact free agents. Boozer wanted $13-15 million. That was not going to fly with Dumars so Boozer stayed in Utah by activating his player option, and we ended up with Gordon and Villanueva. I have already evaluated Charlie V. so I will link a lot to that post. First, though, lets evaluate the ever important contract.

Contract
-Despite what the perception might be, this signing is not an overpayment. No way, no how. The following are PF's who will make more than Villanueva...

Kevin Garnett
Josh Smith
Boris Diaw
Dirk Nowitzki
Keynon Martin
Troy Murphy
Zach Randolph
Pau Gasol
Jermaine O’Neal
David West
Darko Milicic
Rashard Lewis
Elton Brand
Amare Stoudamire
Tim Duncan
Chris Bosh
Carlos Boozer
Antwan Jamison

Count 'em. That is 19 PF who will earn more than Villanueva. We are counting on him to be our starting PF, and I would take him over several players who are listed above. If anything, especially with the possibility that he might become a 20 pts and 10 rebound a game player, we got an absolute steal for signing him at this low of a salary. Obviously, he is not good defensively and that should be taken into account. But, he is at least an average PF (above average offense and below average defense). Considering how well size is paid for in the NBA, we should not be mad at this deal.

What follows is a repeat of an earlier post I made about Villanueva with some subtle changes...

First, lets provide a little background on Villanueva. He is 6'11" 232 and has been a well-known name in the world of basketball for awhile. He was one of the top recruits in the nation in high school before eventually signing with U Conn. After leaving early from U Conn, he was picked by Toronto with the 7th pick in the first round of the 2005 NBA draft. In his rookie year, he was a runner up for Rookie of the Year after averaging 13 points and 6 boards a game. That offseason he was traded to Milwaukee. In '07 and '08 he averaged roughly 12 points and 6 boards.

It was this past season where Villanueva had his best NBA season. In just 26.9 minutes a game, he averaged 16.7 points a game and nearly 7 boards a game. He also had a PER of 18.64 (15 is considered average, and 20 is at a near All Star level). So, lets go beyond the box score and dig deeper into his game...

Rebounding
According to 82games.com, Villanueva had a rebounding rate of 26.9, which put him at 30th in the league, and just ahead of Varejao and Pau Gasol. For comparisons sake, McDyess was in the top 10 in this ranking for the league with Dwight Howard obviously number one. Rasheed Wallace had a rating of 24.4. While that does not sound so bad, remember that there are 60 starting PF and C in the league. He ranked right in the middle. So, as a #2 rebounder on your team, he would be pretty good. But, if you are counting on him to be your best rebounder, then more than likely, that team would be greatly disappointed.

Passing
He had a 3.3 passer rating, which tied him with several players, including Pau Gasol. According to the media, Gasol is considered a good passing big man, but I never really saw that with Villanueva. I think a passing rating for a big man can be skewed somewhat just like a rebounding rate can be skewed for guards. I will remain neutral on this and say he is an average to slightly above average passing big man.

Shooting
He had a free throw percentage of nearly 84%, so this is a strong point of his game. He shot nearly 45 % from the field, and 35 % from 3 point land. He does have a good jump shot, and he can score the ball as evidenced by scoring nearly 17 points a game in just 27 minutes.

Shot selection
This is big in my mind. Rasheed Wallace took jump shots away from the basket 89% of the time last year. That is way, way too much. Villanueva, on the other hand, shot inside 36% of the time. He is not a traditional back-to-the-basket player, so he will float around a little bit on the perimeter. But, this is not too bad of a rate.

Defense
Ok, so he is a decent rebounder and passer, and a pretty good shooter with a somewhat acceptable shot selection for a big man with his style of game. Defensively? Meh. Playing at the center position, his opponent had a PER of 27.4. So, at all costs, we cannot let him play at center or he would be a complete mismatch. At PF, he is a lot better but still a below average defender. His opponent averaged a PER of 18.3 against him. As a PF, he averaged a PER of 20.7. So, he is a plus player even with that defense.

Other important info
It is interesting to note that Milwaukee's best 5 man unit last year, by a substantial margin, was with Villanueva on the bench. That is something to consider. His Roland Rating (which takes into account how well the team performs when the player is off the court as opposed to when he is on the court) was +0.2. For comparisons sake, Rasheed had a Roland Rating of 0.0, and Iverson had a rating of +0.1 It should also be wise to point out that he draws fouls about 9% of his shots, or the same rate that Tayshaun Prince does. Finally, Villanueva has a very high usage rate of 26.0. That ranks 14th in the NBA. Other than Lou Williams of Philly and Will Bynum, the players above him are all #1 options on their teams. What does that tell you about Lou Williams, Bynum and Villanueva's game? For a guy who is clearly not a #1 option or even a #2 option, he requires the ball too much to perform well imo.

Analysis
Looking at the numbers, he is a good #2 rebounder on a team (but we do not have a #1 rebounder if McDyess leaves), a good scorer who can play a hybrid position like Dumars apparently is leaning towards going to more. And, he appears to be a decent passing big man. There is more than meets the eye, though, with Villanueva. He is a below average defender who does not draw fouls at a rate you would like from a PF. Also, his team did not suffer when he was on the bench. Finally, his usage rate is dowright startling, and I have no idea how he and Will Bynum would exist on the same court.

Still, he is only going to be 25 next season and his natural talent is undeniable as he will probably be a 20 point a night scorer when he gets the minutes, and get you 8 boards a night. The price was not outrageous so this is a cap-friendly deal. Assuming we only play him at the PF spot, and we acquire a very good rebounder and defensive center to make up for his shortcomings defensively, then he should be an intriguing option going forward.

Ben Gordon brings plenty to the Pistons

2009-07-02T15:41:00.006-04:00

This is the first in a 3 part series where I will break down Ben Gordon, Charlie V., and then the Pistons organization and roster and how these two players will fit. In this post I will break down the $11 million man.

As the title suggests, Ben Gordon brings a lot to the Pistons. The problem is, all that he brings to the Pistons involves pros (lethal scorer) and cons (high turnover rate and not a plus defender). I will break all of this down and more in the following paragraphs.

The Contract

Gordon is reportedly getting $55 million for 5 years for an average of 11 a year. Based on the other salaries in the league, where does that put him in comparison for other starting SG or premiere SG?

The following are the players who will make less than Gordon next year (a couple of these guys are still on entry-level deals and are due big raises).

-Raja Bell
-Delonte West
-Antoine Wright
-JR Smith
-Stephen Jackson
-Eric Gordon
-OJ Mayo
-Keyon Dooling
-Rasual Butler
-Thabo Sefolosha
-Leonardo Barbosa
-Brandon Roy
-Ronnie Brewer
-Randy Foye

-Of these, Brandon Roy is due a huge raise. JR Smith will probably land a similar deal to what Gordon got. Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo and Randy Foye all have the potential to cash in. The following are two players who have signed similar deals to Ben Gordon:

Kevin Martin
Manu Ginobili

Ginobili will make slightly under $11 million next year and Martin will make just over $10 million before progressing to nearly $13 million in the coming years. So, how do they compare?

Compare Cumulative Seasons (e.g., compare Kobe Bryant through age 28 to Michael Jordan through age 28) Compare Single Seasons (e.g., compare Kobe Bryant at age 28 to Michael Jordan at age 28)
Select up to four players using the selection menus below. Player 1: Select first letter of last name: Clear selection Player 2: Select first letter of last name: Clear selection Player 3: Select first letter of last name: Clear selection Player 4: Select first letter of last name: Clear selection

Compare Cumulative Seasons (e.g., compare Kobe Bryant through age 28 to Michael Jordan through age 28)
Compare Single Seasons (e.g., compare Kobe Bryant at age 28 to Michael Jordan at age 28)

Select up to four players using the selection menus below.

Player 1: Select first letter of last name: Clear selection

Player 2: Select first letter of last name: Clear selection

Player 3: Select first letter of last name: Clear selection

Player 4: Select first letter of last name: Clear selection

Totals

Glossary ▪ ▪ ▪ Click column headers to sort

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Manu Ginobili	2008-09	31	44	7	1181	223	491	.454	69	209	.330	168	190	.884	24	174	198	157	64	16	88	90	683
2	Ben Gordon	2008-09	25	82	76	2999	598	1315	.455	173	422	.410	330	382	.864	52	231	283	279	71	22	200	184	1699
3	Kevin Martin	2008-09	25	51	46	1947	341	811	.420	115	277	.415	457	527	.867	29	154	183	138	61	8	146	116	1254

Per Game

Glossary ▪ ▪ ▪ Click column headers to sort

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Manu Ginobili	2008-09	31	44	7	26.8	5.1	11.2	.454	1.6	4.8	.330	3.8	4.3	.884	0.5	4.0	4.5	3.6	1.5	0.4	2.0	2.0	15.5
2	Ben Gordon	2008-09	25	82	76	36.6	7.3	16.0	.455	2.1	5.1	.410	4.0	4.7	.864	0.6	2.8	3.5	3.4	0.9	0.3	2.4	2.2	20.7
3	Kevin Martin	2008-09	25	51	46	38.2	6.7	15.9	.420	2.3	5.4	.415	9.0	10.3	.867	0.6	3.0	3.6	2.7	1.2	0.2	2.9	2.3	24.6

Per 36 Minutes

Glossary ▪ ▪ ▪ Click column headers to sort

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Manu Ginobili	2008-09	31	44	7	1181	6.8	15.0	.454	2.1	6.4	.330	5.1	5.8	.884	0.7	5.3	6.0	4.8	2.0	0.5	2.7	2.7	20.8
2	Ben Gordon	2008-09	25	82	76	2999	7.2	15.8	.455	2.1	5.1	.410	4.0	4.6	.864	0.6	2.8	3.4	3.3	0.9	0.3	2.4	2.2	20.4
3	Kevin Martin	2008-09	25	51	46	1947	6.3	15.0	.420	2.1	5.1	.415	8.4	9.7	.867	0.5	2.8	3.4	2.6	1.1	0.1	2.7	2.1	23.2

Advanced

Glossary ▪ ▪ ▪ Click column headers to sort

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Manu Ginobili	2008-09	31	44	1181	22.9	.594	.524	2.5	17.3	10.0	23.1	2.9	1.0	13.3	27.2	114	101	2.6	2.2	4.8
2	Ben Gordon	2008-09	25	82	2999	17.0	.573	.521	2.0	8.8	5.4	15.9	1.2	0.5	11.9	25.0	112	112	5.3	1.7	7.0
3	Kevin Martin	2008-09	25	51	1947	19.2	.601	.491	1.7	9.3	5.5	12.3	1.6	0.3	12.3	27.4	115	117	4.8	0.1	4.9

-First and foremost, Gordon does not compare favorably to Ginobili. If we are to believe that Gordon is supposed to be a super sub like Ginobili, and is getting paid like that, then Gordon is going to have to develop into more of a complete player to earn that salary. Ginobili is a better scorer, passer and rebounder and an integral part of 3 championship runs. Other than injury concerns, Ginobili is a vastly superior player. The hope, I guess, is for Gordon to continue to develop into that type of player off the bench.
-Again, despite some injury concerns, Martin is a superior player to Gordon in nearly all aspects of the game as evidenced by the numbers. Based on this, it would appear that this is a slight overpayment and that Gordon is not worth more than $10 million a year.

-The following are the SG due more than Gordon next year.

-Ray Allen
-Joe Johnson
-Kobe Bryant
-Wade
-Michael Redd
-Larry Hughes
-Vince Carter
-Rip Hamilton

-So, to summarize, there are 8 SG who have higher contracts than Gordon and two players with salary amounts within $1 million of what Gordon will earn. Ray Allen, Hughes and Carter will not be worth more than 10 million at their next contract negotiation. Roy, Mayo and maybe JR Smith will take their spots. So, basically, a top 10 SG will get upwards of $10 million or more a year. Is Gordon a top 10 SG and is he of the caliber of Ginobili or Kevin Martin? I think this is an overpayment and 5 years for $45 million would be a better deal.

-Regardless, he is here and he is a Piston. So, who is Ben Gordon and what type of player is he?

Bio
Gordon stayed at U Conn for three years and was apart of their championship team in 2004 with Emeka Okafor. After declaring early for the draft he was selected with the 3rd pick in the NBA draft by the Bulls. In his rookie season he came into the league averaging 15 points in 24 minutes a game and was named to the All Rookie team and the Sixth Man of the Year. Unfortunately, his game has not developed as many would have hoped since then.

The next three seasons he was a part-time starter and averaged between 31-33 minutes a season and 17-21 points a game. His best season to date was in 2007 when he had career highs in PER, Pts and assists. Following this season, he rejected a 5 year/$50 million dollar deal from the Bulls and his value as a player has appeared to fallen off the past 2 seasons.

This past season Gordon was given the reins at the full time starter for the first time in Chicago. He averaged nearly 37 minutes a game and started 76 games. He had 20.7 points, 3.4 assists and 3.5 rebounds a game and a PER of 17.0. This postseason he averaged 24.3 points a game against the Celtics.

Shooting/Scoring
This is where Gordon makes his money. He ranks in the top 10 among SG in 3 point shooting, FG % and Free Throw Pct, and is top 10 among SG in Pts per game. Gordon is hands down one of the best shooters in the league from the SG spot. In terms of shot selection, 80% of his shots are jump shots and he draws fouls at a slightly better rate than Prince, so he does not go to the lane much. And, when the stakes are at their highest, he shoots jumps shots 91% of the time in "clutch time" (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points). So, that is something to keep an eye on. Another thing to keep an eye on is that Gordon takes 45% of his shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. There is a good chance that he will make you scratch your head sometimes with his shot selection. On the plus side, his usage rating of 23.3 is reasonable, and despite the perception that he dominates the ball, the numbers do not bear that out. He is not in the top 10 for usage rate for SG. To recap:

A top 10 shooter by any measure among other SG and a top 10 scorer
Rarely drives to the hoop, especially in crunch time
Prone to taking shots early in the shot clock

Rebounding
-Gordon had a rebounding rating of 9.7. Hamilton had a rebounding rate of 9.5 so Gordon is roughly the same caliber of a rebounder as Hamilton is. In other words, rebounding is not his strong suit and he is probably only good for about 3 a game. He is an average rebounder for his position.

Passing
-Gordon had a passer rating of 4.8 last year and his 3.4 assists a game both put him in the middle of the pack for SG. But, his 2.4 turnovers a game and his assist/turnover ratio of 1.40 is third worst among SG. An average passer with poor decision making abilities.

Defense
-I walked into my evaluation of Ben Gordon with the assumption that he was a terrible defensive player. After looking at the numbers though, I think a lot of my beliefs were due to misconceptions thrown out there by the media and the like. The SG on the opposing team only averaged a PER of 15.4 (which is basically a league average number). And, comparing his numbers to opposing SG bears that out. Based on the production of the opposing SG last year, Gordon was more productive defensively than Vince Carter, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Martin and Brandon Roy. And, his defenive PER is within 1 of what Manu Ginobili allowed and Kobe Bryant, who is supposedly a first team All NBA defender. Now, this is not to say that he is a great defender. He is not. He is undersized and does not have a great wingspan. He also ranked 24th in the league in steals at the SG spot. But, he does have speed and is probably one of the stronger SG in the game. I am simply arguing that the numbers would suggest that he is an average to slightly below average defender, and will not hurt us defensively as much as some assume. Perception does not always match reality and I will have a lengthy post breaking down his defense in comparison to his peers in the near future. You will be surprised with the results.

Other important information
-Gordon had a Roland Rating of +3.3, and the Bulls were +2.7 when he was on the court compared to when he was off the court. So, he was a plus player for the Bulls last year. His Roland Rating was 13th among SG in the NBA.

Analysis
-A top 10 SG in this league is worth $10 million+. Based on the numbers I have presented, he is getting a slight overpayment and is probably not worth an average of $11 million a year. For next season, he is going to make $9 million. At this point in his career, that is what he should be making on a per year basis. He is without a doubt a top 10 shooter/pure scorer at the SG position. He is an average rebounder for his position and he has one of the worst turnover ratios for SG. So, offensively, he will excite us with some great shooting and annoy us with poor decision making with his passing and with some of his shot selections. Defensively, despite the perception that he is a terrible defender, the numbers would suggest that he is just slightly below average. In short, this is what we are getting:

A pure scorer and shooter
Average rebounder for his position
Below-average when passing, and prone to mistakes
Average to slightly below average defender

-Shortly, I will have a post up about Charlie V and then in another separate post, I will discuss how the Pistons team currently constructed would do next season (hint, we need a big man). And, I will break down some of the potential big men we may be targeting.

Last stand for Ordonez should come against Twins

2009-07-01T20:30:00.003-04:00

When you play 162 games in a season, some of them get lost in the shuffle. Today would be one of those games. On a get-away day the Tigers lost 5-1 in a ho hum game against a team going nowhere on the first day of July. This game can be summed up pretty quickly...

Pitching against the worst offensive team in the AL, Verlander allowed home runs to two guys (Jack Cust and Jason Giambi) who are barely even borderline MLB hitters.
Inge had the day off, Granderson did his usual disappearing act against a lefty, and Cabrera didn't pick up the slack.
Ball game.

Ultimately, though, this was not a ho hum game. At some point, this charade with Ordonez has to come to an end. With 184 more plate appearances, we will be on the hook for $33 million over the next two years with a guy who has hands down been one of the five worst RF in the game. Outside of a batting average that puts him in the middle of the pack, lets look at some other numbers and how he compares to other MLB RF.

His wOBA of .308 is the fourth worst among RF
He is only 12th worst in OBP and this will be his best stat. His OBP is .335
He has the second worst slugging percentage at .339
He has the 3rd worst OPS at .673
His isolated power rate of .074 is the worst rate among RF
His wRC (runs created) of 27.7 is fourth worst among RF
His wRAA (runs above average) of -4.5 is fourth worst among RF
He hits the 5th fewest line drives at his position
His WPA (win probability added) of -0.73 is tied for fourth worst among RF
His WAR (wins above replacement player) 0f -0.2 is fifth worst among RF and is perhaps the biggest indictment against him. Essentially, this is saying that he is no better than some random replacement player.
Fielding wise, he has a -2.6 UZR and among right fielders with 40 more starts he has the worst range in the outfield with a RF/9 of 1.5

So, what do we have here? We have a player who can get on base at about an average rate for his position. And, the positives end there. He ranks 5th or worst in nearly every statistical category provided by fangraphs.com, is a negative outfielder and has the worst range of any starting RF in the game.

We all know the inevitable trade or trip to the DL is going to happen. But, he is quickly getting close to his performance-based options and we cannot keep dragging this on much further. Having him and his salary on our roster the next two years is $15 million that we would not be able to use on a free agent, or to help cover for the impending raises given to Verlander, Jackson, Cabrera, Granderson, Guillen, Robertson, Willis, etc.

My stance on it? I would cut him today, during the off day. If not, give him 3 games against Minnesota in a "make or break" performance for him. If he knocks the cover off the ball all weekend, then you keep him for a little longer with the hopes that you may have caught lightening in a bottle (but still not long enough so you would be on the hook for his salary next year). If he doesn't perform and puts together a performance that is becoming all too common since his "mental break" (in his last 14 games, he is hitting .173), then you cut him on July 5th or 6th. The charade has to end.

Rumor: Gordon to sign with Pistons

2009-07-01T15:06:00.004-04:00

Ben Gordon is reportedly going to sign with the Pistons in the "neighborhood of $50 million for five years."

-If this does become official, then I will have much more later. It sounds like both he and Villanueva will be Pistons next year. More to come.

UPDATE: They are both official. By late tonight or sometime tomorrow, I will have a post up about the Tigers, and an analysis of Ben Gordon and Villanueva.

Hossa signs with Chicago

2009-07-01T14:06:00.004-04:00

According to TSN, Hossa is a Blackhawk. The deal is a $5.2 million cap hit for 12 years. I will be back shortly with a post about where this leaves the Blackhawks. In short, they are in cap hell.

UPDATE:

First, they took Scotty Bowman. Now, they take Marian Hossa and Tomas Kopecky? If nothing else, this rivalry is back and it is on. First, lets examine Chicago's roster and what this means for them both in the short term and long term.

Short term

Here is the current salary cap situation for Chicago. So, they had roughly $13 million more to give out but they have locked up Dave Bolland to a $3.375 million deal per year and Kopecky got $1.2 million and those deals are not included in that data. So, they have roughly $8 million in cap space left and they need 2 to 3 more forwards, 1 more defenseman and another goalie. Cam Barker will be re-signed for roughly $3 million a year or a little more. He is a high-end offensive talent and a former top prospect. Then, their "D" is set. Versteeg scored 53 points last year, is a top 6 forward and should get a deal like Bolland got. That will leave roughly $2 million or a little less for Troy Brouwer (26 points last year) to round out the forward lineup. I imagine they will just promote a goalie from the minor leagues up to fill out their roster. So, here is what I come up with, courtesy of capgeek.com...

2009-2010 Chicago Blackhawks
FORWARDS
Marian Hossa	$5,200,000
Patrick Sharp	$3,900,000
Patrick Kane	$3,725,000
* Kris Versteeg	$3,500,000
Dave Bolland	$3,375,000
Dustin Byfuglien	$3,000,000
Jonathan Toews	$2,800,000
Andrew Ladd	$1,550,000
* Troy Brouwer	$1,500,000
Jack Skille	$1,275,000
Tomas Kopecky	$1,200,000
Adam Burish	$712,500
DEFENSEMEN
Brian Campbell	$7,142,875
Brent Seabrook	$3,500,000
* Cam Barker	$3,250,000
Brent Sopel	$2,333,333
Duncan Keith	$1,475,000
Niklas Hjalmarsson	$643,333
Jordan Hendry	$625,000
GOALTENDERS
Cristobal Huet	$5,625,000
Antti Niemi	$892,500
BUYOUTS
Curtis Brown	$456,000
LOST VIA REENTRY WAIVERS
NONE
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (including bonuses)
ROSTER SIZE	21
SALARY CAP	$56,800,000
PAYROLL	$57,680,541
BONUS MONEY (ESTIMATED)	(9.2% of cap) $5,225,000
CAP ROOM	$-880,541
CAP ROOM PER OPEN SPOT	$0

-They would be slightly over the cap, but look for them to move Sopel and clear his salary off the books, then. Basically, for this year, they will be a much better team with the acquisition of Hossa. Lets not kid ourselves. Hossa is a 40 goal scorer and will stay that way for a few more years, at least. Kane, Toews, Versteeg, Bolland, Ladd, etc. are all young and are all going to get better. Their forwards, imo, have the potenetial to be better than our forwards. But, I still do not Campbell or Barker in their top 4 on D and Huet is not a good goalie. I still think we can take them as long as Huet plays like he has in the past. Still, this does make Chicago a much bigger threat to us than they were the other day.

Long Term
-Honestly? They are in complete cap hell unless some idiot GM wants to take Huet and/or Brian Campbell off their hands. The cap is supposed to go down a couple million next year, and may fall to as low as $50 million. If the cap does fall to $50 million, they would have $15 million spend. The problem is, Kane and Toews are $5-6 million a year guys and their contracts each come up next year. Duncan Keith is a $5-6 million a year defenseman and his contract is up next summer. There is your salary cap space right there. Andrew Ladd is a $3 million a year forward. His contract is up next year. Jack Skille was a top prospect for them and should get $2 million or so. His contract is up next year. Niklas Hjalmarsson is a defenseman who can play in most teams top 4 and he is 22. He will command $3 million a year or so. His contract is up next year. The year after that, Brent Seabrook will command $6 million and Dustin Bfyuglein will be worth $3.5 million. A lot of their young and promising players will be gone. Signing Hossa could mean losing a Pat Kane or Duncan Keith.

Is it worth it? Hossa is going to be 31 years old next year. Let me throw out this stat for you. Of the top 10 goal scorers this year in the NHL, Hossa was the oldest at the age of 30. Of the top 20 goal scorers, there are only two players 30 and above: Hossa and Iginla. And, Iginla is 31. Further, of the 39 players who scored 30 or more goals this year, only 5 are 30 or older (Hossa, Iginla, Pavel, St. Louis, and Doan). This is mostly a young man's game. There are always exceptions, like Sakic enjoying 3 of his best seasons after he hit 30, and Alfreddson and Selanne each enjoying several productive years after hitting 30. Based on history, though, Hossa's production is going to start to slip off here pretty soon. To invest another long-term contract in a forward nearing the end of his prime could kill them in the long-term. In the short term, they may be a better team. But, they are going to lose couple of players who are about to enter their primes for a guy who is entering the tail end of his. Doesn't make much sense to me.

-As far as Hossa goes, I have no ill will towards him. Based on the reports, he got an extra $20-25 million a year for going to the Hawks. We knew this was a one year deal, and once we lost the Cup I just assumed that his desire to stay would be diminished. I wish he would have went somewhere else, but I say bring him on. He should ask guys like Sergei Fedorov and Martin Lapointe how they did once they left the Wings for more money.

-And, as for Kopecky... I always thought he had some untapped potential. And, he is a big body. But, they overpaid for him as a way to get Hossa. If he stays healthy long enough to make an impact in the playoffs, then more power to him.

-But, if it was not official already, it is now. This rivalry has been reborn. And, last time I checked they still have Joel Quennville as their coach. I'm not worried.

Game 78 preview: Verlander looks to mow down A's

2009-07-01T10:01:00.006-04:00

As I continue to mention, the A's have arguably the worst offense in MLB. Today, we have a guy going to the mound who has some of the best pure stuff in baseball and has been one of the top 10 pitchers in the AL as he marches toward an appearance on the AL All Star team. It sounds like a mismatch, especially with some of the other numbers I am about to throw out, but Verlander has struggled on the road this year. On the road he has a 4.88 ERA and batters are hitting .278 against him. On the other hand, at home he has a 1.11 ERA and opposing batters are only hitting .162 against him. Interestingly, he only has two more BB on the road than at home and he has pitched 22 more innings on the road this year. So, it is not his control that is lacking on the road. Something else appears to be happening.

Still, though, Verlander has been great this year. He has never been a great second half pitcher, but I still expect his 3.40 ERA to drop as the year progresses. He has the best K/9 rate in MLB at 10.80 and his BB/9 rate of 2.96 is not too bad for a power pitcher like himself. His HR/9 rate of 0.61 and his WHIP of 1.20 is great. Now, for the real good news. His FIP of 2.60 is 5th in MLB and right up there with Roy Halladay. Even better news... Verlander has had a bit of bad luck this year as his BABIP is at .331 (the league average is around .300). Now, because of the way he pitches, he is usually going to have a higher BABIP than most pitchers do. But, that should still drop back a little as the year moves on. He also has the 4th highest WAR in MLB at 3.8. Just looking at his ERA does not do him justice.

Verlander is basically a three-pitch pitcher who has one of the best fastballs in MLB. His curveball is also a plus pitch, while his changeup has only been average this year. After 2 of 3 his previous starts have not gone as planned, facing the A's offense might be what he needs to reverse his troubles on the road and to propel him into the second half of the season.

-Opposing Verlander today will be Dallas Braden. Braden has a 3.26 ERA in 99 IP, and has a 3.52 FIP and .303 BABIP. So, he looks pretty legit and the 25 year old lefty has improved every single season he has been in the majors. The book on Braden is that he does not strike out a ton of batters and he does not walk a lot, either. He is a pretty steady pitcher and his HR/9 rate of 0.63 is very good. He is also great against left handed batters. They have an OPS of .465 against him this year, while right handed batters have an OPS of .754. I would imagine that Granderson would be our only lefty in the lineup. This guy kills left handed batters.

His groundball/flyball ratio is similar to Verlander's at 0.86. So, he should not induce a lot of ground balls as he is a flyball pitcher. He is a 4-pitch pitcher with a fastball, slider, cutter and changeup. He throws his fastball 56 % of the time, and backs that up with a changeup 21% of the time. His slider and cutter make up the remaining percentage with his slider thrown slighly more than his cutter. According to fangraphs, he has three plus pitches with his changeup being his best pitch. (It appears to be one of the 5 to 10 changeups this year in MLB among starters). His fastball is his only negative pitch and that might have to do with his lack of velocity. His fastball only comes in at an average of 88 MPH and his changeup goes down to 73 MPH.

S0, Braden is a flyball pitcher with a great changeup who will not walk many batters (his walk rate is similar to Edwin Jackson) or strike too many out. He also is a terror for left handed batters to face. So, we should expect a lot of right handed batters for us today. He is going to try and get us on a lot of changeups today, and Inge and Polanco are our two best changeup hitters. With Inge probably getting the day off, look for Polanco to potentially have a good day. On May 16th this year, he allowed 9 hits and 6 ER in 5 innings against us. Polanco, Cabrera and Raburn had big days during our 9-1 win. Braden is a good pitcher but we have got to him before, and we can do it again.

Let's take this series and enjoy the off day tomorrow.

Game 77: Tigers bite back and beat A's 5-3

2009-07-01T01:59:00.004-04:00

As they say, a win is a win. But, this was the definition of an ugly win. Twice in the early going of the game with runners in scoring position, we got caught in a rundown and gave away an out (Marcus Thames did his best Josh Anderson impersonation on the one rundown between home and third base). Raburn dropped a routine fly ball in foul territory. We walked a total of 7 batters, and Rodney looked bad in the 9th. Again, though, it always feels nice to go to bed with a win on the road and that is what we got tonight.

Starting Pitching

-How about Galaragga tonight, huh? After I made a post about how he was actually a pretty typical #5 starter and I expressed confidence in him, he made me look good, right? I mean 6.1 IP with 1 ER is great. Right? Imo, no. On the surface, yes, he did his job by not allowing more than a run. But, do you remember some of those games where the Tigers are on base a lot against a pitcher without good stuff and we still could not score? Well, if I were an A's fan that is how I would feel about tonight's game. Galaragga walked 6 batters, and only threw strikes in 53 of his 97 pitches. He also only had one quick inning of 10 or less pitches. The two hits and 5 K's look nice but I think a lot of that had to do with the fact that the A's are a terrible offensive team. As I wrote in my preview post of this series, the A's are the worst offensive team in the AL. Sometimes pitchers win with smoke and mirrors and I think Galaragga did that tonight.

With that said, lets examine his start a little more. In the game preview today, I was calling for Galaragga to use his changeup more and his slider and fastball less. For one, his slider and fastball have been bad this year. And two, the A's have the worst changeup-hitting team in the league. So, what did he do tonight? Well, for the season, he only uses his changeup 8% of the time. According to Brooks Baseball, though, he threw his changeup 18 % of the time tonight. He threw his fastball and slider each at just slightly below 40% of the time tonight. So, it appears that Galaragga is being instructed to become more of a 3-pitch pitcher because this trend occurred in his last start, as well. His changeup is by no means a great pitch. I would consider it average at best. But, I do think incorporating that 3rd pitch into your pitching arsenal can be very beneficial. Against better hitting teams, we will be able to see if this trend of using his changeup more correlates to better success on the mound. If nothing else, it is something to keep an eye on.

Bullpen

-Seay was brought in to get one batter, the lefty Adam Kennedy, and he did his job. Kudos to Seay for once again being solid and dependable in the bullpen.
-Zumaya was great tonight. I was hard on him last game, but he was brilliant tonight. 18 strikes in 23 pitches with a fastball that averaged 100 MPH? Just sick. His duel with Matt Holliday was great to watch.
-Rodney was awful tonight. Let's call it like it is. He got behind on four of the five hitters he faced and he could not locate his changeup. He threw it 9 times and got it over the plate for a strike just 3 times. I can live with the home run by Ellis because that will happen every now and again. I'm not asking him to be Mariano Rivera. But, he has to throw strikes. All that said, he got the double play when we needed it. He entered the game with the lead and when he left we still had the lead. That is all that matters when you have the closer job. Instead of evaluating his performance I am probably just going to use that line, "he entered the game with the lead and when he left we still had the lead" when he gets the job done. Other than Inge and Jackson, he is the story of the Tigers.

Offense
-Gio Gonzalez is an extremely wild pitcher and we only got 2 BB so I would have liked us to work the count against him a little more and we left 8 men of base. But, I will take 5 runs and 12 hits especially with a couple guys in our lineup who are just not swinging the bat well (Ordonez and Thames come to mind). 3 stars offensively...

Polanco- He got the game going with his 2 run home run and gave us 3 RBI on the night. He hits .380 against Oakland and he continues to crush their pitching staff. After going 6 straight games without a multi hit game, it was nice to see him put some good cuts on the ball.
Raburn- Probably had a better all around offensive night than Polanco. 3 hits, and two long doubles that were clean, legit shots off the wall that sounded like they might have had a chance to leave the park at contact. With Braden pitching tomorrow and him just killing lefties this year, I have to think Raburn will get the start tomorrow.

Cabrera-Ho hum. Another multi hit game with a double. This guy is good.

Defense

Two errors tonight. Everett failed to transfer the ball out of his glove properly on the one and Raburn dropped a routine fly ball in foul territory. Luckily, none of the errors came back to bite us. There also was an infield hit against us that caused some confusion between Cabrera and Zumaya. But, this is nitpicking. Raburn won't drop a routine fly ball again and shortstops field so many balls, they are bound to make an error here or there. And, we turned 2 huge double plays. One came in the 1st inning with the bases loaded and the last came in the 9th to end the game. Bottom line, we have 4 guys who should be in the running for a Gold Glove (Cabrera, Polanco, Inge and Granderson). Our defense, even with a 2 error performance, is one of the last things I worry about with this team.

Its a 3:35 start tomorrow as we look to take the series. Verlander is going to be on the mound and I have to imagine that he is licking at his chops at facing a bad offense like the one the A's throw out there. Should be a fun one.

-And, as always, Bill was kind enough to give us a minor league recap tonight. In short, 2B Scott Sizemore continues to rake the ball.