In a "moneyball" move, the Lions trade Ronald Curry for Orien Harris

The Lions new coach, Jim Schwartz, is the NFL's version of Billy Beane. He is a statistical genius with an economics degree from Georgetown and knows more about the stats on Football Outsiders website then possibly any other coach or front office mind in the NFL. This latest move, and a couple of the previous moves made by the Mayhew/Schwartz tag team, provides evidence for this.

So, lets break down this Ronald Curry for Orien Harris deal.

• Statistically speaking, Curry was the 5th worst WR in the NFL last year among receivers with 10-49 catches, and was a negative contributor to the Raiders. At the time when we acquired him, we needed bodies at WR. That is no longer the case. Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt were each among the top 60 most productive WR's in the game and are legit #2 and #3 receivers. Just as a reference point, Northcutt was 45th in DYAR( Defense Adjusted Yards above replacement) which was one spot ahead of Terrel Owens and caught passes at a 65% catch rate (Calvin Johnson was at 52% last year). FA signee Bryant Johnson was 53rd in DYAR and ahead of WR's like Jason Avant, Santonio Holmes, Marvin Harrison and Devin Hester (who may be the #1 receiver for Chicago this year). He, like Northcutt, also had a high catch rate of 60% (of the 79 receivers qualified for the stat with at least 50 catches, only 33 had a catch rate of 60% or higher). Additionally, with the draft day selection of do-everything player Derrick Williams and a holdover like John Standeford, Ronald Curry became extremely expendable.
• So, what should an organization do when a player becomes expendable? Trade him for a position player that you lack depth at? Sounds good to me. Schwartz likes big, big bodies in the middle to clog up the ground game. Hence, the reason they signed Grady Jackson. Orien Harris is another big body and we need some of those. In 14 games with the Bengals last year, he started 1 game and registered 14 tackles. He is 26 years old and is a 6'3" 300+ lbs DT who was a big recruit in high school before playing for the Miami Hurricanes. Is he the cure all to our DT problems? Heck no. We are still very, very weak on the D line. Frankly, Grady Jackson, Landon Cohen, Chuck Darby, Andre Fluellen, Orien Harris and may be the worst DT rotation in the game. But, we are better today than we were yesterday, and that is a start. Expect next off season to include a heavy emphasis on DT, OL and in the secondary.
  

Report: WR Northcutt a Detroit Lion

According to John Clayton, the Lions have traded safety Gerald Alexander to the Jaguars for Dennis Northcutt. He has caught 44 passes the last two seasons, and did have two 100 yard games towards the end of last season. He is 31, and has played in 128 games in his career so he does have some wear and tear. But, like Bryant Johnson, he could potentially give us 40-45 catches, 500 yards and 2-3 touchdowns. Combined, they make a pretty good #2/3 WR combo. The #4 and #5 WR's will probably be Ronald Curry and Derrick Williams, the rookie from Penn State.

Alexander started every game for us in 2007, but was only able to start once last year because of a severe neck injury. With the drafting of Louis Delmas and the FA signing of Marquand Manuel, we became crowded at the safety position and somebody needed to go. Mayhew and company decided it was time to cut bait with Alexander. Even with this trade, we are left with the above two safeties and Kalvin Pearson, Daniel Bullocks, Stu Schweigert, and LaMarcus Hicks. Of these, Delams is almost certain to start, and I expect Manuel and Bullocks to battle it out for the other safety spot. Pearson may also fit into that battle. Schweigert will provide depth and Hicks will fight for a spot on the roster.

All in all, I like this trade. We have solidified our WR core and opened up additional opportunities at safety. If nothing else, this trade provides further proof how awful Millen was. Alexander was his second round pick in 2007, and he probably would have struggled to make a team that was 0-16 last year.