3 straight poor starts for the Golden Boy since I wrote this post...
How much longer can Porcello keep this up?
Since I cursed Porcello, he has pitched 13.1 innings, allowed 25 hits and has a 9.62 ERA.
My bad.
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Showing posts with label Rick Porcello. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rick Porcello. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Game 81 preview: Tigers look to take series from the Twins
On May 5th, Rick Porcello had his best game as a Tiger going 7 strong innings without allowing a run. His opponent? The lovely Minnesota Twins. A repeat performance would be greatly appreciated, thank you very much. If you haven't read my concerns about Porcello, here is the post I made prior to his last start when he allowed 5 ER in 4.1 IP against the worst offensive team in the AL in the Oakland Athletics. So, I am still concerned about Rick but he has had success against Minnesota in the past and he actually has a lower ERA on the road than he does at Comerica Park. The key for him? Forget the month of June and kick ass in July like he knows he can.
The opposing pitcher today will be Nick Blackburn, the "ace" of the Twins staff so far. He has a 3.10 ERA, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that his ERA will go up by about a run before the season ends. He has a slightly above average FIP and WHIP with a 4.07 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP. The book on Blackburn is that he does not strike people out or walk batters. He has a K/9 rate of 3.77. That is incredibly low. The league average is 6.87. So, if we are swinging and missing tomorrow, it will not be because of anything Blackburn brings. On the plus side for him, he has good control and rarely walks batters. His BB/9 rate of 2.26 is very good. He also does not allow a lot of home runs as his 0.75 HR/9 rate would suggest.
He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.21, so he is a groundball pitcher. He throws his fastball at an average of 90 MPH and uses his fastball roughly 62% of the time. His next two most common pitches are his cutter and curveball. According to Fan Graphs, his only plus pitch is his cutter. But, his other pitches are average and he does not really have a bad pitch that has been giving him trouble this season. His splits suggest that he is a terror against right handed batters and that lefties can have their way with him. Lefties have a .301/.350/.487 stat line against him. Right handed batters hit .231/.268.297 against him. So, needless to say, we should have a couple lefties in the lineup. More than anything, this is a matchup that really favors Curtis Granderson, especially because he hits the cutter better than anyone else on our team. Look for his slump to end today if the numbers hold true.
One not so encouraging sign for us is that his ERA has dropped in each month and he has pitched better as the season has wore on. In his last 10 starts, he has gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 ER.
Oh, but how about that start before the streak began? It was May 5th against the Tigers, and we lit him up for the tune of 6 ER in 3.1 IP. Cabrera, Granderson, Ordonez and Satiago all have 5+ AB against him and an OPS over 1.000. It goes without saying that they should all be in the lineup today.
Let's have a repeat of May 5th and take this series.
The opposing pitcher today will be Nick Blackburn, the "ace" of the Twins staff so far. He has a 3.10 ERA, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that his ERA will go up by about a run before the season ends. He has a slightly above average FIP and WHIP with a 4.07 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP. The book on Blackburn is that he does not strike people out or walk batters. He has a K/9 rate of 3.77. That is incredibly low. The league average is 6.87. So, if we are swinging and missing tomorrow, it will not be because of anything Blackburn brings. On the plus side for him, he has good control and rarely walks batters. His BB/9 rate of 2.26 is very good. He also does not allow a lot of home runs as his 0.75 HR/9 rate would suggest.
He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.21, so he is a groundball pitcher. He throws his fastball at an average of 90 MPH and uses his fastball roughly 62% of the time. His next two most common pitches are his cutter and curveball. According to Fan Graphs, his only plus pitch is his cutter. But, his other pitches are average and he does not really have a bad pitch that has been giving him trouble this season. His splits suggest that he is a terror against right handed batters and that lefties can have their way with him. Lefties have a .301/.350/.487 stat line against him. Right handed batters hit .231/.268.297 against him. So, needless to say, we should have a couple lefties in the lineup. More than anything, this is a matchup that really favors Curtis Granderson, especially because he hits the cutter better than anyone else on our team. Look for his slump to end today if the numbers hold true.
One not so encouraging sign for us is that his ERA has dropped in each month and he has pitched better as the season has wore on. In his last 10 starts, he has gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 ER.
Oh, but how about that start before the streak began? It was May 5th against the Tigers, and we lit him up for the tune of 6 ER in 3.1 IP. Cabrera, Granderson, Ordonez and Satiago all have 5+ AB against him and an OPS over 1.000. It goes without saying that they should all be in the lineup today.
Let's have a repeat of May 5th and take this series.
Monday, June 29, 2009
How much longer can Porcello keep this up?
We have all heard the story about Porcello. He was considered, arguably, the best high school pitcher since Josh Beckett and the Tigers thanked their lucky stars that he fell to them because of signability concerns. After a good year at Lakeland where he posted an ERA below 3 and was widely regarded as a top 10 prospect heading into this season. The general consensus around the league was that Porcello would spend most, if not all, of this year in Erie to continue to refine his pitches. Instead, because of our lack of pitching depth, the Tigers pushed the 20 year old to the majors with the hopes that he could handle the pressure and deliver. So far, he has. He is 8-4 with a 3.55 ERA, and the Tigers have been very careful with his arm as he has yet to throw over 100 pitches.
The question, of course, is can he keep it up. Based on his peripheral stats, that answer would be no. Looking at the majority of the stats, he has been a league average pitcher thus far in the season. His K/9 rate of 5.03 is well below the league average of 6.88. His BB rate of 3.09 is above average, but his K/BB rate of 1.63 is below the league average of 1.93. In fact, it is the 8th worst rate in the AL amongst qualified starters. His HR/9 rate of 1.26 is also high as the league average is 1.04. He has a WHIP of 1.36, which is slightly above average (1.39). His FIP is 4.82, which is well below the league average of 4.32. In fact, of the 42 pitchers in the AL who qualify for these stats (b/c of a certain amount of starts) he has the 36th lowest FIP. According to this Pitch F/x data and analysis Porcello has one great pitch with his sinker, and then has several average pitches.
So, what explains his low ERA? Porcello has a BABIP of .280, compared to the league average of .300, and his LOB % is nearly 8% higher than the league average. So, Porcello appears to be helped out greatly by arguably the best defensive infield in the league, and the opposing batters struggling more than normal with runners on base. Will that continue? The latest projections by Zips have him finishing with a 4.48 ERA, nearly a run higher than he is currently allowing.
Based on his peripherals, which suggests that he is a league average pitcher other than his ERA, it appears that we might have to be prepared to see Porcello struggle a little bit more than he has in his seamless transition to the big leagues. Let's just hope that does not start tonight.
The question, of course, is can he keep it up. Based on his peripheral stats, that answer would be no. Looking at the majority of the stats, he has been a league average pitcher thus far in the season. His K/9 rate of 5.03 is well below the league average of 6.88. His BB rate of 3.09 is above average, but his K/BB rate of 1.63 is below the league average of 1.93. In fact, it is the 8th worst rate in the AL amongst qualified starters. His HR/9 rate of 1.26 is also high as the league average is 1.04. He has a WHIP of 1.36, which is slightly above average (1.39). His FIP is 4.82, which is well below the league average of 4.32. In fact, of the 42 pitchers in the AL who qualify for these stats (b/c of a certain amount of starts) he has the 36th lowest FIP. According to this Pitch F/x data and analysis Porcello has one great pitch with his sinker, and then has several average pitches.
So, what explains his low ERA? Porcello has a BABIP of .280, compared to the league average of .300, and his LOB % is nearly 8% higher than the league average. So, Porcello appears to be helped out greatly by arguably the best defensive infield in the league, and the opposing batters struggling more than normal with runners on base. Will that continue? The latest projections by Zips have him finishing with a 4.48 ERA, nearly a run higher than he is currently allowing.
Based on his peripherals, which suggests that he is a league average pitcher other than his ERA, it appears that we might have to be prepared to see Porcello struggle a little bit more than he has in his seamless transition to the big leagues. Let's just hope that does not start tonight.
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