Carl Pavano hates the Tigers

nothing to see here. Take the series tomorrow and we can forget about this game. Quick thoughts...

1. It seemed that JV was way off tonight. His fastball, especially, appeared to be a pitch the Twins dug in on tonight.
2. The Twins ran on Grandy twice on judgment calls from the 3rd base coach. That tells you what the scouting report on Grandy's arm is. And Fan Graphs agrees. It is slightly below average this season.
3. Nick Punto was especially impressive to me tonight. He has been a great defender his whole career, but only slightly above average this season according to UZR. It was only one game but he passed the eye test for me. He had real good instincts at 3rd and seemed light on his feet.
4. We should have scored on Grandy's bloop hit (I didn't know if Everett or Lamont was to blame for that b/c I just focused on the ball dropping in) and we loaded the bases one other time. So, with some luck, we could have scored a couple runs off Pavano. Still, 4 straight starts like that against us is hard to deal with.
5. I've been calling for Simons to come up since mid June. They've already tried Dolsi, Fien and Lambert. I have to think he might be next. Maybe DD will come out of left field and promote a guy like Weinhardt. I doubt it but I also didn't think Avila would see any time this season.

Oh well. I said coming into this home stand that we needed to take 5 of 7. Thus far, we have taken 4 of 6. Take the series tomorrow and this forgettable game can be forgotten.

Game 86: Galaragga looks to prove he is "back"

After allowing only an earned run in each of his last two starts, Galaragga looks to prove that he is actually a legit option in the back end of the rotation and that his good starts against the A's and Royals had little to do with them being bad teams. Verlander dominating the Royals is one thing. Galaragga doing it leaves one skeptical. That is just the way it is. Today, he goes against a team with guys like Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez and Choo who should match up well with Galaragga. This is a big game for him.

In his last start against the Indians, he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings in a forgettable start. Sizemore and Choo both have an OPS above 1.000 and may need to be pitched around today. As mentioned yesterday, Choo is the best slider hitter on the Indians and that is Galaragga's best pitch. We will see what Armando has tonight.

Carl Pavano is opposing us tonight. He was always a pitcher that interested me, especially after his great 2004 season with the Marlins and his great postseason work in 2003 on their run to the title. Unfortunately, his numerous injuries during his days with the Yankees robbed him of his prime.

This year, he has returned to being at least a respectable back of the rotation starter. He has a 5.36 ERA, but he has peripheral numbers that suggest his ERA should decline as the year goes on. He does allow a .301 batting average against but his FIP of 3.76 comes with a real high BABIP of .344 and a criminally low LOB % of just 61.9%. His K/BB rate of 3.55 is outstanding. In other words, do not just look at his ERA when evaluating his pitching this year.

Pavano is a three pitch pitcher with a fastball, change, and slider. Both his slider and change have been plus pitches this year. Pavano has reverse splits this year with right handers hitting for a better OPS than lefties do against him. Ordonez, Inge and Everett all have an OPS above .800 against him. Obviously because of the platoon, Ordonez will not be getting a chance to improve upon those numbers today. Miguel Cabrera, in particular, matches up very well against Pavano (who doesn't he match up well against?). Could today be the day where he breaks out of his mini slump (2 RBI and an OPS below .700 in his last 12 games)? I say yes.

Lets take the second game of this series.

Game 85: Tigers look to extend winning streak against Indians

After 5 straight wins against the Indians, the Tigers will look to continue the streak tonight with Edwin Jackson heading to the mound. In his previous start against Cleveland, he went 7 strong innings with 0 ER, 7 K's and only six base-runners all game. His 1.07 WHIP is the best in the AL and his 2.59 ERA is good for the 3rd in the AL. His peripheral numbers would suggest a slight increase in ERA as the year progresses, but nothing would suggest a monumental fall. His 3.37 FIP is good and his 2.82 K/BB rate is well above average. The only real concerning thing is a real low BABIP of .260 and a LOB % of 76.5. Still, an ERA between the 3 to 3.5 range is very realistic and who would not have taken that to start the year?

He is still basically a two pitch pitcher with a great fastball and slider that are both plus pitches. Shin Soo-Choo is their best combined fastball-slider hitter so he will be one that Jackson will have to be careful with tonight. And, as usual, Victor Martinez must also be watched carefully. He is a great, great fastball hitter.

Opposing us tonight will be Cliff Lee, the Cy Young Winner last year for the AL. In his last start against us, he engaged in that epic duel with Justin Verlander which saw Verlander throw a complete game shutout and Lee toss 8 innings and only allowing 1 ER. Lee is that kind of pitcher and certainly capable of another performance like that. He has a 3.45 ERA this year with a 1.41 WHIP and a 3.33 FIP. Like usual, he does not strike out a lot of batters (he has a 6.38 K/9 rate) but he does not walk many, either. His BB/9 rate of 2.33 is very good. He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.30 and only has a HR/9 rate of 0.60. So, we should expect quite a few groundballs off the bats tonight.

Lee's two most frequent pitches are his fastball and changeup. According to Fan Graphs, he had a fastball that was 34.2 runs above average last year. That is simply sick. This year he has come back down to Earth a little bit, but it is still at 6.5 runs above average. His fastball comes in an 91-92 MPH on average.

His splits clearly suggest that right handed batters stand a better chance against him than lefties do. RH batters have an .800 OPS against him and lefties only have a .542 OPS.

Lee is coming off a decent start against the A's allowing 3 ER in 6 innings of work. But, it took 112 pitches to just get through that inning and we all know how bad the A's offense is. In addition to that, just a start before that Lee allowed 7 ER in 3 IP against the White Sox. So, maybe the Tigers are catching the ace at a good time?

Ordonez and Inge both have an OPS above .900 against him so they will be two players to especially keep an eye on tonight against Lee. Perhaps the platoon will help take some pressure off Ordonez and hide his deficiencies a little bit by only letting him face lefties? Tonight may be a good night to find out especially with a great pitcher facing off against him.

Game 82: Tigers look to get back on track against lowly Royals

Armando Galaragga looks to continue to add stability to the back end of the rotation as he goes after his third straight win. His last start against the A's left much to be desired with 6 walks, but he again has a favorable matchup against the Royals offense. Here is what I wrote about Armando before his last start...

More than anything, his slider has lost its bite and opposing hitters are hitting it more. After being a plus, plus pitch last year for him, it has been a negative pitch for him. His changeup has actually improved greatly from last year, and yet, he is throwing that pitch 4 % less than last year and throwing his slider and fastball more than last year. I would like to see him rely more on his changeup and cut back a little with the slider to see if that makes a difference. He did do that last start and his last start was good, outside of the Jake Fox 3-run home run in the first inning. Coincedently, the A's hit the changeup worse than any other team in MLB. I think Galaragga can exploit that tonight and provide a good outing for a #5 starter. 7 IP, 3 ER tonight out of Armando would be outstanding, and I think he can do it.

In that game, he continued to use his changeup upwards to 20% of the time and he seems to feel more comfortable relying on that pitch. Developing that 3rd pitch could be pivotal as he tries to shake off a bad start to the season and solidify himself as a #4 or #5 starter for us. In his last start against the Royals he went 6 strong innings and only allowed 1 ER, and only Billy Butler, Alberto Callapso and Jose Guillen are the players on the Royals with any real success against him. At last word, Guillen was questionable for tonight. This has the makings of another chance for a good start for Galaragga.

Opposing him tonight will be Gil Meche, who's 4-8 record and 4.20 ERA do not display how good of a pitcher he is or could be against us. The last two years he has had an ERA under 4 for the Royals and his FIP and WHIP in both of those years were better than league average. At his best, he is a good #2 starter. The problem for Meche is usually his consistency. In 6 starts this year he has allowed 4 or more runs, and even allowed 9 ER in a game against the Cardinals on June 21st. On the other hand, he has 10 starts with 2 ER allowed or less. So, he could be great against us or bad.

This year he has a 3.73 FIP and a 1.45 WHIP. His K/BB rate of 1.85 is right around league average and his HR/9 rate of 0.64 is very good. More than anything, he has had some bad luck this year. He has a BABIP of .320 and a LOB % of just 68.8%. He can, and probably will, pitch better as the season goes on.

He actually pitches much better on the road with a 2.70 ERA. His splits suggest that right handed batters hit better against him with a .780 OPS compared to lefties hitting for an OPS of .674 against him. But, the difference is not that severe. He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.51 so he has been a groundball pitcher this year more so than ever before. And, he is truly a 4 pitch pitcher as he uses his fastball, slider, curveball and changeup all more than 10% of the time. Accoring to Fan Graphs, his best pitch is his curveball. His fastball, which comes in on average around 02 MPH is also a plus pitch.

In his last start against us, he only last 2.1 IP as he allowed 4 runs, but only 2 ER. He also had 3 walks and 6 hits allowed in that game so the potential is there, as I mentioned earlier, to hit this guy hard tonight. Of course, he also has the stuff to completely shut us down. Miguel Cabrera is 5 for 6 with 2 doubles and 2 HR against him, so it might be a night where we see Cabrera break out of his mini-slump.

-As always, I will be back later for my thoughts on the game.

Game 81: Stagnant offense and Porcello's failures a sign of things to come?

We all saw the game. There is no need for a player-by-player offensive breakdown when there was no offense to speak of until a meaningless home run by Inge (who should be an All Star) in the 9th. Nick Blackburn has been hot lately and we caught him on maybe his best day and our worst day. That is baseball and it sucks, especially because we had a chance to take this series. And, while it is important to not overreact, what fun would it be if we didn't?

-This is what I wrote after Porcello's last start and I feel the same way. The kid needs a rest.

• 
  

-Well, I feared this start was going to come for Porcello. I am by no means suggesting that I expect Porcello to continue to have a 4.1 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 5 ER stat line. But, I do expect his ERA to continue to rise into the 4's, and it is time for Leyland to get him some rest. We have a favorable schedule coming up with some off days and the All Star break worked in, and I think it will be extremely beneficial for the young guy to skip a start or two over this stretch. Considering how he has pitched recently, I think it is the best thing for our team both in the short term and long term. All of his peripheral numbers suggest that he is basically a 4.5 ERA-type pitcher this season. Sit him for a start, let him clear his head and rest that golden arm before the second half of the season, and let's see if he can turn those numbers around into his favor. His month of April was rough, and he turned it around with a 1.50 ERA for the month of May. Similarly, he can turn this poor end in the month of June to a good month of July.

This start did nothing to calm my fears. It is frustrating watching Porcello pitch because he has the talent and "stuff" to dominate but he is only 20. He is probably not ready yet for this workload. That home run he allowed to Morneau directly impacted the rest of that inning. When he is 30, that won't happen. As a 20 year old, it most certainly will. I say skip his next start and let him get rested over the All Star break and hopefully he will return to his month of May form. But, in his given role as the #3 starter, there is not another pitcher that I am more concerned about. It is going to be very interesting to see how he does in the second half of this season as the standings get tighter and the games get bigger.

-What can you say about the offense today? Pathetic is probably a good word. Again, it happens. We need another bat and Dombroski will land one before the trading deadline. Until then, I see no reason why Clete Thomas is not up here in place of Don Kelly or Josh Anderson. It is time for some new blood up here and Thomas brings a superior bat and glove than these two. We cannot keep having "mail-in" games like these and batting Don Kelly at the #4 spot is just ridiculous.

-Other than that, there is not much else to say. I'm concerned about Porcello and have been for awhile. We need another bat and it is time to see what Clete Thomas has got after his stay in Toledo. We are up 2 games in the division at the halfway point of the season and it is basically a three team race between us, Chicago and Minnesota. The last 10 games of this season we will be playing against those teams. Basically, that will define our season. Until then, we need to stay in the race and hopefully build on our lead before that pivotal stretch run.

-First things first, though. It is time to face the Royals in a 3 game series. Take 2 and I'll be happy. Tomorrow night, Galragga gets the party started against Gil Meche.

Game 81 preview: Tigers look to take series from the Twins

On May 5th, Rick Porcello had his best game as a Tiger going 7 strong innings without allowing a run. His opponent? The lovely Minnesota Twins. A repeat performance would be greatly appreciated, thank you very much. If you haven't read my concerns about Porcello, here is the post I made prior to his last start when he allowed 5 ER in 4.1 IP against the worst offensive team in the AL in the Oakland Athletics. So, I am still concerned about Rick but he has had success against Minnesota in the past and he actually has a lower ERA on the road than he does at Comerica Park. The key for him? Forget the month of June and kick ass in July like he knows he can.

The opposing pitcher today will be Nick Blackburn, the "ace" of the Twins staff so far. He has a 3.10 ERA, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that his ERA will go up by about a run before the season ends. He has a slightly above average FIP and WHIP with a 4.07 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP. The book on Blackburn is that he does not strike people out or walk batters. He has a K/9 rate of 3.77. That is incredibly low. The league average is 6.87. So, if we are swinging and missing tomorrow, it will not be because of anything Blackburn brings. On the plus side for him, he has good control and rarely walks batters. His BB/9 rate of 2.26 is very good. He also does not allow a lot of home runs as his 0.75 HR/9 rate would suggest.

He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.21, so he is a groundball pitcher. He throws his fastball at an average of 90 MPH and uses his fastball roughly 62% of the time. His next two most common pitches are his cutter and curveball. According to Fan Graphs, his only plus pitch is his cutter. But, his other pitches are average and he does not really have a bad pitch that has been giving him trouble this season. His splits suggest that he is a terror against right handed batters and that lefties can have their way with him. Lefties have a .301/.350/.487 stat line against him. Right handed batters hit .231/.268.297 against him. So, needless to say, we should have a couple lefties in the lineup. More than anything, this is a matchup that really favors Curtis Granderson, especially because he hits the cutter better than anyone else on our team. Look for his slump to end today if the numbers hold true.

One not so encouraging sign for us is that his ERA has dropped in each month and he has pitched better as the season has wore on. In his last 10 starts, he has gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 ER.

Oh, but how about that start before the streak began? It was May 5th against the Tigers, and we lit him up for the tune of 6 ER in 3.1 IP. Cabrera, Granderson, Ordonez and Satiago all have 5+ AB against him and an OPS over 1.000. It goes without saying that they should all be in the lineup today.

Let's have a repeat of May 5th and take this series.

Game 80: A day game after a night game for the ages

After a 16 inning classic, the Tigers and Twins square off again today in a "nationally televised" game on Fox. Our bullpen was gassed last night and Zumaya and Dolsi are definitely not available today. Ideally, Edwin Jackson will pitch 7+ strong innings and make sure our bullpen is rested for Rick Porcello on Sunday. We need Jackson to have a good game today.

Jackson's ERA has risen each month (2.25 in April, 2.34 in May and 2.91 in June) so there is some concern entering this start and heading into the second half of the season. But, lets not kid ourselves. Jackson has been remarkable this year and better be an All Star this year. How good has he been? Lefties have an OPS of .542 and right handed batters have an OPS of .675 against him. So, there is really no favorable matchup against him. His 2.49 ERA ranks second in the AL and he has the best WHIP in the league at 1.04. He is currently 9th in innings pitched at 108 innings. Right now, he is on pace to go well over 200 innings so that is something to watch as his workload increases.

Some of his other numbers do suggest that his ERA should rise a little bit as the season wears on. He has a good FIP of 3.18 (11th in MLB) but his BABIP of .258 is very low and might not stay at that rate all year. His K/9 rate of 6.98 is slightly above league average, but he has kept his walks down and his K/BB rate of 2.90 is very good. Even better is his HR/9 rate of 0.58 and his opponent batting average is .216 (4th lowest in MLB).

Jackson is a groundball power pitcher with an electric fastball that averages 94.5 MPH. He is basically a two pitch pitcher with two plus, plus pitches in his fastball and slider. He will sometimes mix in a curve or changeup, as well.

In his last start against the Twins, he allowed 5 ER in 6 innings in a 7-2 loss. Most of that damage came in the 7th inning where Jackson failed to record an out.

Jackson's opposing pitcher in that first battle is also the opposing pitcher against us today in Francisco Liriano. Blessed with a golden arm that showed it in 2006 (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 10.71 K/9) he has since failed to recover that incredible form following surgery that knocked him out for all of 2007.

This year, Liriano is 4-8 with a 5.62 ERA, 4.53 FIP and 1.52 WHIP. His K/9 rate of 8.03 is still good but it is his struggles with his command that continues to ail him. His BB/9 rate of 4.22 is well above league average and his K/BB rate of 1.90 is below league average. He will get some strikeouts against us, but like Gio Gonzalez for Oakland, he will also put us on base with BB if we are patient. Liriano has a HR/9 rate of 1.20, which is below average for a starting pitcher. He does have a BABIP of .322 so some of his struggles could be contributed to bad luck.

He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.10, so we should expect to see more fly balls to come off our bats today. He is a 3 pitch pitcher with a 91.6 MPH fastball and a very good slider that comes in at 86 MPH. His changeup is also considered a plus pitch. More than anything, it has been his struggles with his fastball that have hurt him this year. That pitch is valued as a -18.0 by Fan Graphs. As far as his splits go, Liriano struggles much more against right handed batters than lefties. Right handed batters hit .284/.356/.504 against him compared to .232/.337/.305 against lefties. So, we should expect to see Ordonez and Everett back in the lineup today. Granderson has K'd 10 times against him in his career so that is something to be careful of today for Curtis.

Of late, Liriano has pitched well. He had a 3.77 ERA in June without a bad start sprinkled in there. Interestingly, he forced more groundballs than flyballs in his June starts. His BB/9 rate for that month was still over 4, though. It is clear that he is still struggling with his command even as his stuff appears to be getting back to what it once was.

Cabrera and Inge both match up very well with Liriano (but who doesn't Cabrera match up well with?) They are our two best fastball hitters and are both right handed. Liriano might want to pitch around Cabrera, at the very least. In his last start against us, Cabrera did homer off Liriano but he mostly shut everyone else down by going 7 innings and only allowing 2 ER.

After last night's game, I'm not sure how this one will even come close to matching it. But, another win again against the Twins would still probably feel just as sweet.

So, some things to look out for today...

1. Will the Tigers show patience against Liriano and get BB?
2. Will Liriano continue to pitch as well as he did in June?
3. Can Edwin Jackson give our bullpen a much needed rest by giving us 7 to 8 quality innings?
4. Will Jackson's struggles continue against the Twins?
   
5. Granderson has had a tough time against Liriano in his career and Cabrera and Inge should have a favorable matchup. Will these hold true today?
   

Game 79: Are some games truly more important than others?

I have never believed that there were ever "big" games in a 162 game season. I have never believed that momentum ever truly swung with one game. A baseball season is a marathon like no other professional sports season. There are so many peaks and valleys that it is hard to get too high or too low during any of it. Just look at all of the storylines we have had in 79 games:

• Ordonez, two seasons removed from a run to the MVP award, is on the verge of being released.
• Willis still cannot find the strike zone and is on the DL for probably the rest of the year.
• Edwin Jackson has been one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball a year after being a #5 starter for the Rays.
• Verlander has had a bounce back season to All Star form
• Brandon Inge is having a career season and should make the All Star team
• We have nearly $50 million tied up to players who will make no positive contribution to us this year (Sheff, Robertson, Bondo and Willis) and we are still in the thick of the division race
• Jim Leyland was given a two year extension

And, I could give many, many more story lines than those. So, I do find it hard to say that this win in 16 innings is a "big" win. A "big" win for me does not happen in the regular season in the NBA, NHL or MLB regular season unless we are in the final weeks of the season. But, what I have always thought is that games like these (tough, close games that you pull out) do add up. If a team loses a number of close games, then it starts to wear on them as the season progresses. Similarily, if a team wins a lot of close games, I have always felt that that team develops a sort of belief that they will somehow come back and win that game.

If the Tigers had struggled winning close games all year, then I'm not sure if one win would turn that around. But, the Tigers are 25-11 in games decided by one or two runs. I have always held the opinion that at some point stats like that stop becoming a coincidence and instead speak to that "it" factor that some teams have. Regardless what happens tomorrow or Sunday, I like this team. Some players need to get the broom. Sure. But, I like this team a lot. We might have another special run to the postseason in front of us, and games like this one and the Raburn walk off against the Cubs a week or two back give me that hope. We will see, but this team has got to love being in close games and they must have a world of confidence in games like that. Imo, that helps us an awful lot and gives us an advantage over a team who has struggled in close games.

As far as the game itself...

-Slowey was basically throwing us batting practice. Thames crushed a home run. Josh Anderson even got a triple. This is the 4th start in his last 5 where Slowey struggled. It is nice to see the Twins rotation (which I am really not impressed with) start to to get beat up a little.

-Any win over the Twins is important. Any win over a team in our division is important. This game would have been especially hard to take after we blew a six run lead. Miner blew it with one bad inning and then our bats would completely cold. Thankfully, R.A. Dickey's knuckelball was extremely hittable tonight. He had a 0.66 ERA in June.

-Lucas French went 4.2 innings with 2 ER, 6 hits, 2 BB and 3 SO's. He was pulled after just 2 outs in the fourth inning and replaced by Zach Miner. He ended up only throwing 81 pitches, and put 50 of them in for strikes. They put some good swings on him and Cuddyer, specifically, was really putting some good cuts on the ball against him. His stuff was pretty much what we expected. Upper 80's on the fastball and a decent slider that got him a couple SO's. Is he the answer in the back of the rotation? Too early to say, and his first start was not better than Figaro's. But, he did battle pretty well and I was especially impressed when he only allowed 1 run in the 3rd inning despite being in quite the jam. At the very least, French has earned another start.

-In Zach Miner's previous 15 innings of relief work, he allowed 2 ER. Tonight, he allowed 5 ER in 0.2 IP. To put it bluntly, he was awful. He got behind hitters and got the ball up in the zone too much. The interesting thing about Miner is that he is prone to very bad outings like this. On June 3rd, for example, he allowed 4 ER in 0.1 IP against Boston and on April 13th he allowed 8 ER in 3.1 IP against the White Sox. Hence, his ERA looks very bad at 4.98 even though the majority of his outings are pretty good. He just has to cut down on those type of outings, though.

-Ni went up against Mauer and Morneau and got them both out. What else can you say? Good job, kid.

-Lyon and Seay, as usual, got the job done. Lyon did allow two hits and Seay nearly allowed a home run to Mauer, but they continue to impress in the back end of our bullpen.

-This was one of the best performances of Joel Zumaya's career. He struck out four batters, had great command and great stuff. 53 pitches and he still struck out Cuddyer with the game on the line? Unbelievable.

-And while we are on the topic of Zumaya, how about the decision by Leyland to not only keep him in despite throwing over 50 pitches but to also walk Mauer and Morneau to make the bases loaded. That shows a tremendous amount of respect for the M & M boys, and a lot of confidence in Zumaya. He delivered and for once it is definitely time to give Leyland credit for making a decision that not a lot of managers would have had the guts to make.

-Rodney was also brilliant tonight. 2 IP with a SO and no baserunners. Tough as nails tonight when we needed him to be.

-Dolsi got two chances to close the game for us, and thank goodness he finally did. 64 pitches for him tonight, 2 ER, 4 hits an error, and he struggled with the signs that Laird was giving him. I was not impressed with his stuff tonight, but he did manage to outperform R.A. Dickey and that is all that matters. Does he get demoted to Toledo to help shore up our tired bullpen?

Position player performances:

Granderson- 2 hits, 2 runs and two BB. I will take that .500 OBP from my leadoff hitter all day, everyday.
Polanco- Prior to tonight, he had two games all year in which he struck out twice. Tonight, he struck out three times. Then he gets hit below the belt on a foul ball, and singles home a run in the 14th inning on the very next pitch. Not a lot of guys could do that. Also, not very many guys would be able to get another clutch RBI in the 16th inning. Quite a performance by Polanco tonight.
Cabrera- He went 1 for 8 with a near home run off the wall that just went for a double. He continues to make nice plays at 1st base. He has obviously had much better days at the plate.
Thames- He is what he is: sometimes he will run into a home run (like he did in the 3rd inning) and most of the time he will not do much else. He went 2 for 5 before Raburn took his spot.
Raburn- He got doubled up after Ordonez hit a line shot to the second baseman. Other than that, though, he got 2 hits and a big RBI in the 16th inning.
Don Kelly- One hit tonight before being replaced by Ordonez. I have to wonder how long it will take for him or Josh Anderson to be replaced by a more deserving OF like Clete Thomas.
Ordonez- I said he had to step up his production this weekend, and he did get a big RBI knock in the 16th inning. That is step one. Now, perform on Saturday and Sunday.
Inge- 1 for 6 but he did get on base with 2 HBP.
Josh Anderson- He got a triple for us. He also made a horrendous play in the outfield that contributed to two of their runs, and continues to have weak at-bats. He or Kelly needs to go.
Laird- This has got to be a tough game for a catcher. He battled through the extra innings and hit a HR. With continued rest b/c of the emergence of Dusty Ryan, I think he might be able to continue this hitting into the second half of the season and not tire out.
Santiago- 1 for 6 at the plate. Bad night for him despite a favorable pitching matchup against Slowey.

-Edwin Jackson going for us tomorrow against Francisco Liriano. Jackson needs to go at least 7 innings and probably even more than that. Our bullpen is gassed and only Ni, Seay, Miner, Lyon and Rodney are available. And, Leyland would prefer to rest some of those guys. If Jackson has a complete game in him, it would be a great time to bring it out for tomorrow.

-Finally, here is the minor league recap provided to us by Bill at The Detroit Tigers Weblog.

Game 79 preview: French vs. Slowey

Kevin Slowely looks to become the AL's first 11 game winner and prove once again why wins is an overrated stat. Nonetheless, he is 3-0 against the Tigers with a 4.57 ERA so he gets the job done against us. For the year, he has a 4.41 ERA, 4.14 FIP, and a near-league average WHIP of 1.40. The most impressive thing about Slowey is that he basically does not walk people. His 1.54 BB/9 rate is outstanding and so is his K/BB rate of 4.73. He allows home runs at a decent clip with a HR/9 rate of 1.44. What is perhaps most interesting of all is his absurdly high BABIP of .348. I have to think that will drop and by the end of the year his ERA will probably be around 4.00. Basically, he is an innings eater (on pace to throw nearly 180 innings) and would be a very good #3 starter on a championship team.

His GB/FB ratio of 0.69 suggests that he is a flyball pitcher. In fact, 47.2% of batted balls against him are fly balls. About 20% are line drives. And, about 10% of those fly balls will end up being a HR, so that is something to watch tonight with some of our flyball hitters (hello, Mr. Thames and Granderson).

Slowey will not strike many people out, and his lack of velocity would suggest that. His fastball averages about 89 MPH. His pitch selection in and of itself is quite interesting. He uses a fastball-type pitch 69% of the time and then three other pitches that he uses no more than 13% and no less than 8.5% of the time. The slider, changeup and curveball are his next favorite pitches but there is a chance that he could use each of them equally. Fan Graphs suggests that his best pitch is his fastball, and that his three other pitches are not plus pitches. One other thing that should be pointed out is that he throws a first pitch strike 68% of the time. The league average is 58%. He will lull you to sleep with how good of command he has.

On the plus side, 3 of his last 4 starts have been a little shaky. He has allowed at least 3 ER in those 3 starts and did not make it past the sixth inning in any of his last 4 starts. As far as his splits go, lefties hit very well against him with a .349/.390/.538 stat line. We should hit some lefties tonight against him (Granderson, Kelly and Santiago, please). As far as our team goes, he is the type of pitcher we struggle the most with. We have a worse OPS+ against finesse pitchers than against power hitters, and a worse OPS+ against fly ball pitchers than against ground ball pitchers. Slowey is a finesse, fly ball pitcher.

As far as the Twins are concerned, they do struggle a little bit more with left handed pitchers (Jason Kubel, in particular, is terrible against left handed pitching). On the other hand, they do their best against finesse pitchers, which is what French will provide for them. So, it could be a little give and take tonight for French. I already broke down French's numbers in this post, and I think he has the potential to be a serviceable starter for us. Facing off against Morneau or Mauer, he had better be.

For a break down of French's limited stay with the Tigers so far, Fire Jim Leyland provides some good info.

UPDATE: No Ordonez tonight. And, unlike what he did against Brett Anderson, Leyland is listening to the stats tonight an is batting 4 lefties against Slowey.

1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Marcus Thames, DH
5. Don Kelly, LF
6. Brandon Inge, 3B
7. Josh Anderson, RF
8. Gerald Laird, C
9. Ramon Santiago, SS

Scouting the Minnesota Twins

The Twins enter play today 41-39 and just three games back of your first place Tigers. Thanks to Morneau and Mauer, it is likely that they will be a thorn in our side all season. Lets check the numbers in comparison to AL teams (first number) and to the Tigers (second number).

Offense
Batting Average- .269 (6th, 8th)
Runs- 379 (8th, 9th)
BB/K - 0.56 (4th, 11th)
OBP- .342 (7th, 10th)
SLG- .420 (9th, tied for 7th)
OPS-.762 (7th, 10th)
BABIP- .308 (3rd, 10th)
Runs Created- 383 (6th, 11th)
wOBA- .334 (8th, tied for 9th)
Batting value- 22.8 (7th, 9th)

-As you can tell, the Twins are pretty much a middle-of-the pack offensive team and is more efficient than the Tigers offense. They draw more walks, strikeout less, get on base more, have a better OPS and have created more runs. The Twins have four guys with an OPS above .800 (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel) and two other guys with an OPS above .700 (Brendan Harris and Denard Span). At the bottom of their order, though, they struggle even worse than we do as everyone else with 150+ at bats has an OPS below .625. We need to limit the damage the top of the order will do to us, and then feast on their poor batters at the bottom of the order.

Pitching
I am just going to concern myself with the relievers because I am going to break down their starters on an individual basis for each game. So, how about that Twins bullpen?

ERA- 3.82 (4th, 10th)
FIP- 4.54 (10th, 9th)
WHIP- 1.31 (4th, 10th)
BABIP- .278 (2nd, 7th)
K/9- 7.15 (10th, 11th)
BB/9- 3.57 (3rd, 12th)
K/BB- 2.00 (7th, 12th)
LOB %- 77.5 % (2nd, 10th)
HR/9- 1.18 (11th, 9th)

-So, the Twins again appear to have the better bullpen. They rarely walk batters, leave a high percentage of men on base and their WHIP and ERA are both in the top half of the league. If their is one glimmer of hope for their performance to fall off, it is that they do allow quite a few home runs, and their FIP is high with a low BABIP. Can they sustain that performance?

As usual, Joe Nathan is the rock in their bullpen. He has 21 saves with a 1.44 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 1.95 FIP, and a sick K/BB ratio of 6.50. He does have 2 blown saves but he should still be an All Star this season. Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and R.A. Dickey all have 20+ appearances and ERA's under 3. The back end of their bullpen, though, can be had against guys like Jesse Crain and Craig Breslow. But, the front end of their bullpen is very, very good.

Defense
Perhaps surprisingly, the Twins defense has not been that good this year. Their combined UZR of -11.3 ranks 20th in MLB. On the other hand, the Tigers rank third in that stat with a UZR of +27.1. SS Brendan Harris, and CF Carlos Gomez are plus defenders, 3B Joe Crede might be a Gold Glove winner, and LF Denard Span might be one someday, as well. But, their other 4 positional players are below average defensively. With that said, Joe Mauer is great defensively and there is no stat that really shows that.

-Overall, the Tigers are 1-4 against the Twins this year and this is an important series, imo. Will it define our season? Of course not. But winning this series could propel us into the second half of the season with some much needed confidence. Bill disagrees with me, and Lee offers a unique look at the Twins-Tigers comparisons.

Could Lucas French be our Zach Miner circa 2006?

During our pennant run in 2006 we featured a great top 4 of the rotation of Kenny Rogers, Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman. Once Mike Maroth went down with an injury, we needed someone else to come in and shore up our pitching staff. Enter Zach Miner. Before his final two disastrous starts, Miner had a 4.27 ERA in 14 starts, 11 starts where he went at least 5 innings and he did not walk more than 3 batters in any of those starts. Miner's ability to add that stability at the back end of the rotation for two and a half months helped pave the way for the Tigers to earn a playoff spot that season. The question now becomes: can Lucas French provide that same type of stability at the back end of rotation? Lets make some comparisons by looking at the numbers...

In 2006, Miner was 6-0 and had a 2.82 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in Toledo. This season in Toledo, French is 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA, 3.16 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. Those are fairly comparable numbers and one could argue that French has superior numbers. But, the comparisons should not stop there, and French's numbers will continue to look better.

Player K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 .AVG BABIP LOB %
French 7.93 2.20 3.60 0.66 .236 .291 71.8
Miner 5.71 3.10 1.84 1.06 .230 .283 75.2%

So, when looking at their minor league stats for that year, French had superior numbers except for batting average against and LOB %. His superior K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9 rate, WHIP and FIP is certainly more than encouraging as he makes his case for the rotation tonight.

Last stand for Ordonez should come against Twins

When you play 162 games in a season, some of them get lost in the shuffle. Today would be one of those games. On a get-away day the Tigers lost 5-1 in a ho hum game against a team going nowhere on the first day of July. This game can be summed up pretty quickly...

• Pitching against the worst offensive team in the AL, Verlander allowed home runs to two guys (Jack Cust and Jason Giambi) who are barely even borderline MLB hitters.
• Inge had the day off, Granderson did his usual disappearing act against a lefty, and Cabrera didn't pick up the slack.
• Ball game.

Ultimately, though, this was not a ho hum game. At some point, this charade with Ordonez has to come to an end. With 184 more plate appearances, we will be on the hook for $33 million over the next two years with a guy who has hands down been one of the five worst RF in the game. Outside of a batting average that puts him in the middle of the pack, lets look at some other numbers and how he compares to other MLB RF.

1. His wOBA of .308 is the fourth worst among RF
2. He is only 12th worst in OBP and this will be his best stat. His OBP is .335
   
3. He has the second worst slugging percentage at .339
4. He has the 3rd worst OPS at .673
5. His isolated power rate of .074 is the worst rate among RF
6. His wRC (runs created) of 27.7 is fourth worst among RF
7. His wRAA (runs above average) of -4.5 is fourth worst among RF
8. He hits the 5th fewest line drives at his position
9. His WPA (win probability added) of -0.73 is tied for fourth worst among RF
10. His WAR (wins above replacement player) 0f -0.2 is fifth worst among RF and is perhaps the biggest indictment against him. Essentially, this is saying that he is no better than some random replacement player.
11. Fielding wise, he has a -2.6 UZR and among right fielders with 40 more starts he has the worst range in the outfield with a RF/9 of 1.5

So, what do we have here? We have a player who can get on base at about an average rate for his position. And, the positives end there. He ranks 5th or worst in nearly every statistical category provided by fangraphs.com, is a negative outfielder and has the worst range of any starting RF in the game.

We all know the inevitable trade or trip to the DL is going to happen. But, he is quickly getting close to his performance-based options and we cannot keep dragging this on much further. Having him and his salary on our roster the next two years is $15 million that we would not be able to use on a free agent, or to help cover for the impending raises given to Verlander, Jackson, Cabrera, Granderson, Guillen, Robertson, Willis, etc.

My stance on it? I would cut him today, during the off day. If not, give him 3 games against Minnesota in a "make or break" performance for him. If he knocks the cover off the ball all weekend, then you keep him for a little longer with the hopes that you may have caught lightening in a bottle (but still not long enough so you would be on the hook for his salary next year). If he doesn't perform and puts together a performance that is becoming all too common since his "mental break" (in his last 14 games, he is hitting .173), then you cut him on July 5th or 6th. The charade has to end.

Game 78 preview: Verlander looks to mow down A's

As I continue to mention, the A's have arguably the worst offense in MLB. Today, we have a guy going to the mound who has some of the best pure stuff in baseball and has been one of the top 10 pitchers in the AL as he marches toward an appearance on the AL All Star team. It sounds like a mismatch, especially with some of the other numbers I am about to throw out, but Verlander has struggled on the road this year. On the road he has a 4.88 ERA and batters are hitting .278 against him. On the other hand, at home he has a 1.11 ERA and opposing batters are only hitting .162 against him. Interestingly, he only has two more BB on the road than at home and he has pitched 22 more innings on the road this year. So, it is not his control that is lacking on the road. Something else appears to be happening.

Still, though, Verlander has been great this year. He has never been a great second half pitcher, but I still expect his 3.40 ERA to drop as the year progresses. He has the best K/9 rate in MLB at 10.80 and his BB/9 rate of 2.96 is not too bad for a power pitcher like himself. His HR/9 rate of 0.61 and his WHIP of 1.20 is great. Now, for the real good news. His FIP of 2.60 is 5th in MLB and right up there with Roy Halladay. Even better news... Verlander has had a bit of bad luck this year as his BABIP is at .331 (the league average is around .300). Now, because of the way he pitches, he is usually going to have a higher BABIP than most pitchers do. But, that should still drop back a little as the year moves on. He also has the 4th highest WAR in MLB at 3.8. Just looking at his ERA does not do him justice.

Verlander is basically a three-pitch pitcher who has one of the best fastballs in MLB. His curveball is also a plus pitch, while his changeup has only been average this year. After 2 of 3 his previous starts have not gone as planned, facing the A's offense might be what he needs to reverse his troubles on the road and to propel him into the second half of the season.

-Opposing Verlander today will be Dallas Braden. Braden has a 3.26 ERA in 99 IP, and has a 3.52 FIP and .303 BABIP. So, he looks pretty legit and the 25 year old lefty has improved every single season he has been in the majors. The book on Braden is that he does not strike out a ton of batters and he does not walk a lot, either. He is a pretty steady pitcher and his HR/9 rate of 0.63 is very good. He is also great against left handed batters. They have an OPS of .465 against him this year, while right handed batters have an OPS of .754. I would imagine that Granderson would be our only lefty in the lineup. This guy kills left handed batters.

His groundball/flyball ratio is similar to Verlander's at 0.86. So, he should not induce a lot of ground balls as he is a flyball pitcher. He is a 4-pitch pitcher with a fastball, slider, cutter and changeup. He throws his fastball 56 % of the time, and backs that up with a changeup 21% of the time. His slider and cutter make up the remaining percentage with his slider thrown slighly more than his cutter. According to fangraphs, he has three plus pitches with his changeup being his best pitch. (It appears to be one of the 5 to 10 changeups this year in MLB among starters). His fastball is his only negative pitch and that might have to do with his lack of velocity. His fastball only comes in at an average of 88 MPH and his changeup goes down to 73 MPH.

S0, Braden is a flyball pitcher with a great changeup who will not walk many batters (his walk rate is similar to Edwin Jackson) or strike too many out. He also is a terror for left handed batters to face. So, we should expect a lot of right handed batters for us today. He is going to try and get us on a lot of changeups today, and Inge and Polanco are our two best changeup hitters. With Inge probably getting the day off, look for Polanco to potentially have a good day. On May 16th this year, he allowed 9 hits and 6 ER in 5 innings against us. Polanco, Cabrera and Raburn had big days during our 9-1 win. Braden is a good pitcher but we have got to him before, and we can do it again.

Let's take this series and enjoy the off day tomorrow.

Game 77: Tigers bite back and beat A's 5-3

As they say, a win is a win. But, this was the definition of an ugly win. Twice in the early going of the game with runners in scoring position, we got caught in a rundown and gave away an out (Marcus Thames did his best Josh Anderson impersonation on the one rundown between home and third base). Raburn dropped a routine fly ball in foul territory. We walked a total of 7 batters, and Rodney looked bad in the 9th. Again, though, it always feels nice to go to bed with a win on the road and that is what we got tonight.

Starting Pitching

-How about Galaragga tonight, huh? After I made a post about how he was actually a pretty typical #5 starter and I expressed confidence in him, he made me look good, right? I mean 6.1 IP with 1 ER is great. Right? Imo, no. On the surface, yes, he did his job by not allowing more than a run. But, do you remember some of those games where the Tigers are on base a lot against a pitcher without good stuff and we still could not score? Well, if I were an A's fan that is how I would feel about tonight's game. Galaragga walked 6 batters, and only threw strikes in 53 of his 97 pitches. He also only had one quick inning of 10 or less pitches. The two hits and 5 K's look nice but I think a lot of that had to do with the fact that the A's are a terrible offensive team. As I wrote in my preview post of this series, the A's are the worst offensive team in the AL. Sometimes pitchers win with smoke and mirrors and I think Galaragga did that tonight.

With that said, lets examine his start a little more. In the game preview today, I was calling for Galaragga to use his changeup more and his slider and fastball less. For one, his slider and fastball have been bad this year. And two, the A's have the worst changeup-hitting team in the league. So, what did he do tonight? Well, for the season, he only uses his changeup 8% of the time. According to Brooks Baseball, though, he threw his changeup 18 % of the time tonight. He threw his fastball and slider each at just slightly below 40% of the time tonight. So, it appears that Galaragga is being instructed to become more of a 3-pitch pitcher because this trend occurred in his last start, as well. His changeup is by no means a great pitch. I would consider it average at best. But, I do think incorporating that 3rd pitch into your pitching arsenal can be very beneficial. Against better hitting teams, we will be able to see if this trend of using his changeup more correlates to better success on the mound. If nothing else, it is something to keep an eye on.

Bullpen

-Seay was brought in to get one batter, the lefty Adam Kennedy, and he did his job. Kudos to Seay for once again being solid and dependable in the bullpen.
-Zumaya was great tonight. I was hard on him last game, but he was brilliant tonight. 18 strikes in 23 pitches with a fastball that averaged 100 MPH? Just sick. His duel with Matt Holliday was great to watch.
-Rodney was awful tonight. Let's call it like it is. He got behind on four of the five hitters he faced and he could not locate his changeup. He threw it 9 times and got it over the plate for a strike just 3 times. I can live with the home run by Ellis because that will happen every now and again. I'm not asking him to be Mariano Rivera. But, he has to throw strikes. All that said, he got the double play when we needed it. He entered the game with the lead and when he left we still had the lead. That is all that matters when you have the closer job. Instead of evaluating his performance I am probably just going to use that line, "he entered the game with the lead and when he left we still had the lead" when he gets the job done. Other than Inge and Jackson, he is the story of the Tigers.

Offense
-Gio Gonzalez is an extremely wild pitcher and we only got 2 BB so I would have liked us to work the count against him a little more and we left 8 men of base. But, I will take 5 runs and 12 hits especially with a couple guys in our lineup who are just not swinging the bat well (Ordonez and Thames come to mind). 3 stars offensively...

• Polanco- He got the game going with his 2 run home run and gave us 3 RBI on the night. He hits .380 against Oakland and he continues to crush their pitching staff. After going 6 straight games without a multi hit game, it was nice to see him put some good cuts on the ball.
• Raburn- Probably had a better all around offensive night than Polanco. 3 hits, and two long doubles that were clean, legit shots off the wall that sounded like they might have had a chance to leave the park at contact. With Braden pitching tomorrow and him just killing lefties this year, I have to think Raburn will get the start tomorrow.

• Cabrera-Ho hum. Another multi hit game with a double. This guy is good.

Defense

Two errors tonight. Everett failed to transfer the ball out of his glove properly on the one and Raburn dropped a routine fly ball in foul territory. Luckily, none of the errors came back to bite us. There also was an infield hit against us that caused some confusion between Cabrera and Zumaya. But, this is nitpicking. Raburn won't drop a routine fly ball again and shortstops field so many balls, they are bound to make an error here or there. And, we turned 2 huge double plays. One came in the 1st inning with the bases loaded and the last came in the 9th to end the game. Bottom line, we have 4 guys who should be in the running for a Gold Glove (Cabrera, Polanco, Inge and Granderson). Our defense, even with a 2 error performance, is one of the last things I worry about with this team.

Its a 3:35 start tomorrow as we look to take the series. Verlander is going to be on the mound and I have to imagine that he is licking at his chops at facing a bad offense like the one the A's throw out there. Should be a fun one.

-And, as always, Bill was kind enough to give us a minor league recap tonight. In short, 2B Scott Sizemore continues to rake the ball.

Game 77: Tigers looking to bounce back against A's

After a disappointing game last night for the Tigers, it is a battle of #5 starters tonight. First, lets look at Armando Galaragga. I profiled the pitching staffs of the AL this morning, and while it was just a quick run down of ERA's and did not take into account a number of peripheral stats, it does provide a pretty clear picture of what we can expect from a #5 starter... an ERA over 5 and you will be lucky if you can get consistent innings from that starter. Thus far this year that has been Galaragga. Now, I do agree that more should be expected of him and I think he needs to make some adjustments (more on that later). His ERA is 5.65, and he has a 5.79 FIP and 1.61 WHIP. Needless to say, that is awful. His K/9 rate of 5.65 is well below the league average and his 3.84 BB/9 rate is above average. That is not a good combination. Also, his HR/9 rate of 1.81 is the worst on the team. Eeesh. Finally, his WAR is 0.0 so he is the epitome of a replacement level player.

So, what is the difference from last year when he had a 3.73 ERA? His BABIP was .247 last year and his FIP was 4.88. So, we should have expected some of this. But, his k/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rate are all worse than last year, and he is allowing line drives at a 4% higher rate than last year. More than anything, his slider has lost its bite and opposing hitters are hitting it more. After being a plus, plus pitch last year for him, it has been a negative pitch for him. His changeup has actually improved greatly from last year, and yet, he is throwing that pitch 4 % less than last year and throwing his slider and fastball more than last year. I would like to see him rely more on his changeup and cut back a little with the slider to see if that makes a difference. He did do that last start and his last start was good, outside of the Jake Fox 3-run home run in the first inning. Coincedently, the A's hit the changeup worse than any other team in MLB. I think Galaragga can exploit that tonight and provide a good outing for a #5 starter. 7 IP, 3 ER tonight out of Armando would be outstanding, and I think he can do it.

On to the A's starter tonight, Gio Gonzalez. Like Brett Anderson, he is a young southpaw (although, as you will see, he is much smaller than Anderson) who can make some bats swing and miss.

"Gonzalez has missed his fair share of bats in the past three seasons (two years at Double-A, one at Triple-A), and has struck out more than nine batters per nine innings. At Triple-A in 2008, Gonzalez allowed 106 hits in 123 innings and posted rates of 4.46 BB/9 and 9.37 K/9. He obviously needs to shave down the walk rate, especially after his MLB debut late last year that saw him walk 25 batters in 34 innings (6.62 BB/9). After allowing just 12 home runs in Triple-A, Gonzalez was lit up for nine (2.38 HR/9) in the Majors."

-How has he done this year? Well, he has only started once and pitched in three games. So, the sample size is so small it is almost not worth looking at the numbers. He does have an ERA of 8.01. But, he also has an incredibly high BABIP of .479 and his FIP is 4.18. So, his ERA looks bad, but he probably has not pitched as bad as it may appear. His K/9 rate of 9.49 is almost Verlander-like. Of course, his BB/9 rate of 6.57 is almost Willis-like. So, we better try to work the count tonight. He throws a lot of curveballs and you know he is going to throw a bunch at Granderson and a couple of our other guys. We have to be patient against this guy. If we are, he will throw a lot of walks and make the A's fans want to pull there hair out. I'm all for that.

Gonzalez is a three-pitch pitcher who throws his curveball and changeup a combined 36% of the time. The remainder of the time, he throws his fastball. His velocity is pretty good as his average fastball comes in at roughly 91 MPH (so, on FSN tonight, some red flags should be raised when it says he is throwing 95-96 MPH). His best pitch is his curveball. His splits would certaily suggest hitting every lefty we have against him. They have a 1.532 OPS against him. Again, though, it is such a small sample size, we should not read much into that. In the minors, lefties hit a little better than right handed batters against him.

So, it will be interesting to see if Leyland follows the stats tonight and sends out more left handed batters than he did last night. More than anything, we need to work the pitch count tonight and not let this guy look like Randy Johnson. Patience, Tigers. Patience. That is the name of the game tonight. We do that and we can hit this guy around tonight.

Game 76: Worst fears for Porcello realized, Anderson delivers for A's

-Well, I feared this start was going to come for Porcello. I am by no means suggesting that I expect Porcello to continue to have a 4.1 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 5 ER stat line. But, I do expect his ERA to continue to rise into the 4's, and it is time for Leyland to get him some rest. We have a favorable schedule coming up with some off days and the All Star break worked in, and I think it will be extremely beneficial for the young guy to skip a start or two over this stretch. Considering how he has pitched recently, I think it is the best thing for our team both in the short term and long term. All of his peripheral numbers suggest that he is basically a 4.5 ERA-type pitcher this season. Sit him for a start, let him clear his head and rest that golden arm before the second half of the season, and let's see if he can turn those numbers around into his favor. His month of April was rough, and he turned it around with a 1.50 ERA for the month of May. Similarily, he can turn this poor end in the month of June to a good month of July.

- Too early still to judge Ni. He gave up a home run to Sweeney but it was not a bad pitch. I would have preferred it to be down and away rather than down and into Sweeney's sweet spot but sometimes you have to give the hitter credit. He threw 27 pitches and got 21 strikes. His curveball needs work. But, he is better than Nate Robertson.

-Freddy Nolsi went two innings without allowing an earned run. He threw strikes in 20 of his 30 pitches and in 4.2 innings up here, he has only had 1 BB. If he keeps that up, he has a shot to stick here for awhile. Of course, stick him in a tight game and everything might change. Like Ni, it is too early to make an assessment on Dolsi's stay up here this year.

-I didn't think Brett Anderson was overwhelming, but the kid does have good stuff. A little wild? Sure. And we helped him out a few times swinging at fast balls out of the zone (they must have watched Pudge do that too much in the Houston series). But, whenever you face a top prospect like he was or someone with the natural "stuff" that he brings, sometimes you are the team on the other end of a good pitching performance. Anderson is a potential #1 ace in the future.

-With that said, we were not as patient as we should have been tonight and we did help the kid out more than we should have. Everett was the only guy with 2 hits, and even he missed out on a big opportunity in the 6th inning to get us within 2 runs. And, 14 SO's is unacceptable. Tip your cap to the A's? A little bit. But, I didn't see Randy Johnson on that mound. Way, way too many K's. That stops tomorrow.

-I mentioned in my pre game post that Anderson was worst against left handed batters. Yet, we only had one left handed batter in the lineup and Granderson always struggles against lefties. Sometimes going against the stats work. Sometimes it doesn't. Today, it didn't work.

-So, about that terrible offense for Oakland... ouch. Galaragga will be good tomorrow and those bats will show their true colors. I think.

-And, completely OT, Tim Lincecum is amazing. 3 CG in his last 4 starts, and he has an ERA of 2.37 that is as legit as it gets. Verlander, are you taking notes? That can be you.

-I'll be back tomorrow with a preview of the A's starter tomorrow, Gio Gonzaelez. To be brief, he is a young lefty who has been terrible ths season and has the stuff to be better. Sound familar? I also could disect the A's batters to see how Galaragga might attack them tomorrow if there is interest in a highly analytical analysis.

-Finally, here is the minor league recap, courtesy of Detroit Tigers Weblog. Quick recap: every team in our organization lost tonight. As they say, it was just one of those nights.

Game 76 Preview: Tigers vs. A's

For everyone who follows minor league baseball, the MLB draft, and prospects, this is a dream pitching matchup. Both Rick Porcello an Brett Anderson were consensus top 20 prospects in the game before the season. I profiled Porcello below about his lack of impressive peripheral numbers, but he has more than done his fair share this year. And, going against a terrible lineup like the A's, Porcello has a better than average chance of improving on those numbers and on his already good ERA.

Brett Anderson, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in his rookie season. First, let's provide a little background on this once top prospect who is only 21 years of age. He is the son of Oklahoma State coach Frank Anderson and he slipped to the second round because of signability issues (sound similar to Porcello?). Eventually, the Diamonbacks got him. After dominating in the minors for a year, he was included in the Dan Haren deal before last season, and did not dissapoint last year with a 11.03 K/9 rate at the AA level with a 2.97 FIP and a 2.61 ERA.

Since getting the call up, though, those impressive numbers did not translate to prime time. He is 4-7 with a 5.74 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 5.11 FIP. Not too good to say the least. He has a slightly below average k/9 rate of 5.87 and a slight above average BB/9 rate of 2.35. Worse than anything, though, he has an awful 1.70 HR/9 rate. We could play some long ball with him on the mound. (Is this the game Thames snaps out of the slump with a long shot to left?) And, batters are hitting .307 off him.

According to fangraphs, he has one plus pitch with a pretty good slider. His fastball, which does have some sink to it, has been crushed this year. He throws that fastball only about 52% of the time, and uses his slider roughly 32% of the time. His changeup comes in at an average of 83 MPH, and throws it 11 % of the time. His curveball is rarely used. His velocity is ok. The fastball comes in at nearly 92 MPH, and his slider and chageup come in at roughly the same speed. Hence, there is probably some deception there for the hitter and that leads to a tough slider to hit.

Anderson, perhaps because he is only 21 and on a strict pitch count, has only gone beyond the 6th inning twice. His last three outings he has not gone through 6 innings and he has allowed a combined 14 runs in just 14.2 innings. Despite the fact that he is a big lefty, his splits are actually worse against left handed batters. They hit .356 against him with a .967 OPS compared to right handed batters hitting .281 with a .804 OPS. In his previous start against us he went 3.1 IP, allowed 6 hits, and 3 earned runs. It should be noted, though, that nine runs were scored with him on the mound (but that was a 4 error performance by his defense).

Based on the numbers, this guy is not a good pitcher. Clearly, though, he does have talent and we just have to hope that this is not the day he shows it. So, does Leyland follow the numbers and go with a left handed lineup? If he does, Santiago and Kelly or Anderson should get in the lineup. If he doesn't, we can expect Everett and Ordonez in the lineup. I would argue that Raburn, who hit a grand slam off Anderson in our last meeting, should get the nod over Ordonez. On the other hand, if this is a last-chance type deal for Ordonez, it might be time to see if he will sink or swim.

Game 74: Tigers trying to avoid the sweep

After a 7 game winning streak, the Tigers have fallen back to Earth a little bit with two straight losses against the Houston Astros. Today, Edwin Jackson takes the mound. We all know about the transformation of Jackson since coming to the Tigers in exchange for RF Matt Joyce. After never having an ERA or FIP below 4, a K/BB rate above 1.5, and a WHIP lower than 1.5, he suddenly has a 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2.72 K/BB and a 3.26 FIP. Now, his differential between his FIP and ERA and a low BABIP of .258 might suggest that his ERA will climb before the season ends. Still, he has been great this year, and we need another good performance from him today. He has three plus pitches with a good fastball, one of the best sliders in the majors and a decent curveball. His ERA is a whole run lower on the road, so that might also benefit us today.

Towing the mound for the Astros is veteran Russ Ortiz. In his days with the Giants and Braves, he was a very good #2/#3 starter and was a 21 game winner in 2003. But, this isn't 2003 anymore. The last 3 years prior to this one, he has an ERA above 5.5, and he did not even pitch last season. This year, based on his ERA of 3.47 it would appear that he is having a career resurgance. But, his 5.05 BB/9, 1.53 WHIP, and 4.52 FIP tell us that his ERA is a little misleading. He also only has a 4.08 ERA as a starter, so the numbers suggest that this is a pitching matchup that certainly favors the Tigers. Right handed batters have an OPS of nearly .200 better than Left Handed batters against him, so Ordonez should return to the lineup today. Overall, his pitches are average. His only plus pitch is his fastball and a +4 value for a fastball is actually his best since 2003. But, he is a 4- pitch pitcher. He throws his fastball only half the time, and then mixes up his pitches well from there. He throws his curveball 19 % of the time, his cutter 16 % of the time, and his changeup about 12% of the time. His velocity is nothing to write home about as his fastball usually only averages 90 MPH. We are not dealing with another Paulino here today.

So, what should we expect from the Tigers today? Like I mentioned, we should field a right handed heavy lineup so Ordonez will probably get the call today to return to the lineup. Everett might, but he struggles with the slider more so than anyone else on our team and Santiago doesn't. He might be the better bet in today's game. It will be an interesting decision on Leyland's part. On the one hand, he should go with the right handed batter in Everett. On the other hand, Santiago might be better equipped to deal with Ortiz's pitches. Curtis Granderson is our best combined slider, cutter hitter so this could be the day where he breaks out of his mini-slump. Brandon Inge is a real good fastball and cutter hitter, as well, so he too will be one watch. The fact that he is a right handed batter also gives him an added advantage today against Ortiz.

Tigers to call up Fu-te Ni, Nate Robertson to the DL

According to East Windup Chronicle and thanks to Mack Avenue Tigers for finding this link. Kurt has a great blog and should be a daily stop for all Tigers fans.

Back to the news. This does not surprise me, at all. Ni has been great at Toledo with a 3-0 record, 2.65 E.R.A., 32 K’s to 9 walks and a 1.15 WHIP in 34 innings pitched. In fact, I have been speculating for weeks now when he would make his Tiger debut. As I mentioned last night, the Tigers need to find out if he can be their second reliable left handed pitcher. If nothing else, Ni could be the LOOGY that Leyland obviously wants Robertson to be. He has a 0.63 ERA versus lefties, 14 K's, 0 BB and only allowed a .175 BA against.

Freddy Dolsi or Alfredo Figaro could be optioned down. As I speculated last night, they could elect to just skip Figaro's next start and this would allow us to have 8 guys in the bullpen for the next week or so. If nothing else, if Ni performs well in the LOOGY role, Leyland will have little use for Robertson on the roster and that too would accelerate Robertson's departure.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Per Jason Beck's blog, Nate Robertson has been placed on the DL with a "mass in the medial portion of his left elbow." Ni is with the team today and is available to pitch today if need be. I imagine Robertson might be on the DL for awhile if Ni performs like he is expected too in that LOOGY role.

Brandon Inge should be an All Star

Title says it all, doesn't it? I'll cut to the chase.

Inge is 2nd in the AL in home runs for 3B, 3rd for RBI's and middle of the pack in batting average. As always, those numbers alone do not tell the whole story. Basically, he is a Fangraphs.com and Baseball Prospectus All Star. He has the third highest wOBA among 3rd Baseman, and is barely behind Scott Rolen for that honor. He is second in wRAA, fourth in wRC (Runs Created) and is second in Isolated Power. And, he makes up for being 4th in OBP and in the BB/K rate with being second in slugging % and OPS. Notice a pattern? He is top 4 in every single offensive statistic, other than batting average (which is an ancient statistic that I wouldn't even use to tout Miguel Cabrera's candidacy for the All Star game). The only other 3rd baseman to also have that honor is Evan Longoria, the obvious choice to start in the game. Among Inge's closest peers offensively are Scott Rolen, Michael Young, and Chone Figgins, with Rolen posing a legit argument that he is having a better offensive season.

Defensively, though, its not close. Inge is second to Joe Crede in UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating in Runs Above Average), 2nd to Adrian Beltre in RngR (Range Runs above average) and has a better RF/9 than both Rolen and Young. Figgins would get the nod in that stat.

In terms of overall value, it is also not close. Inge currently has the 3rd highest WAR in all of the AL, and is second behind the great Longoria for 3B. He has a WAR of 3.2. A full season of 4.0 WAR is considered good.

So, let's break this down. Joe Crede has probably been the best defensive 3B in the AL, but he trails Inge in nearly every offensive stat. Inge has at least tied Michael Young in offensive production, and Young has the lowest UZR of any qualified 3B in the AL. His terrible defense alone takes him out of the discussion. Basically, it comes down to Scott Rolen and Chone Figgins. Here are how the three compare:

Rolen has the better VORP, EQA, wOBA, and batting average of the three. Inge has the better SLG, OPS, ISO, wRAA, and far and away is the better defensive 3rd Baseman with a UZR of 9.7 compared to Rolen's 1.1 and Figgins 1.4. Figgins leads in OBP, wRC, and Range. Based on this breakdown, it is pretty clear that Rolen and Inge are #2 and #3 for AL third baseman. Rolen has been the better offensive player of the two, but Inge has created a much larger discrepency with his vastly superior defense. The difference separating them for EQA and wOBA is miniscule, at best. And, Inge brings an added advantage of power by hitting 12 more home runs than Rolen has this year. Additionally, he has been worth 1 additional win this year according to the WAR stat.

When you combine an offensive performance that places him in the top 4 in nearly every major offensive statistic for AL 3rd baseman, and when you add in that he has been the 2nd best defensive 3rd baseman in the AL, the facts support the argument. Other than Longoria, he is the only 3rd baseman in the AL that can say he is a top 4 offensive 3B and a top 4 defensive 3rd baseman. The man should be, and better be playing in St. Louis for the All Star game.