The rise of Justin Verlander

With all of the talk centering around the Tigers turning down a deal for Roy Halladay, lets look at what our current staff ace has done this season...

Last year, Verlander was the talk of Detroit. But, it was for all of the wrong reasons. He ended the season with a 4.84 ERA, 17 losses and the most walks issued in his 3 year career. He had gone from the No-hitter and All Star golden boy to the fans whipping boy. Of course, those who looked at his peripheral numbers (like his 4.18 FIP) would have noticed that his numbers did not defer much from the season he had in 2006 when he was the talk of baseball, and won rookie of the year. Alas, more was expected of Verlander last year and he failed to deliver.

Flash forward to this season, though, and everything is turning up aces (pun intended). Verlander has the 4th best FIP in MLB at 2.71, the 2nd best K/9 ratio, 11th best K/BB, 10th best tRA, 7th best WPA, and his 5.1 WAR (maybe my favorite stat) is 4th best in the game. Basically, by nearly every advanced measure, Verlander has turned into a legit shutdown ace this season. He is without question one of the top 10 pitchers in the game and has been in the top 5 this season in the AL with the likes of Greinke, Halladay, Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez.

So, what has changed? Before this season, Verlander's career best FIP was 3.99 in 2007. That is generally reserved for good #2 starters (Edwin Jackson, for example, has a FIP of 3.89). Now, he has the 4th best FIP in the game. What caused such a resurgence? For one, Chuck Hernandez is gone. The days of trying to adjust Verlander's arm slot appears to be over and he seems to work well under new pitching coach, Rick Knapp. Knapp came to Detroit from the Minnesota Twins organization which prides itself on throwing strikes. That hardly seems like a revolutionary concept but considering that the Tigers had the 4th worst BB/9 ratio in MLB last year, then it became a much needed philosophy. At the time of the hire, it seemed like a perfect fit. Take a guy from an organization who rarely walks batters (lowest BB/9 ratio in MLB last year) and put him with flamethrowers who can strike out and walk the park. Then, with a little magic, the hope was that Knapp's influence would keep the K rates the same (or even better) and drastically cut down on the walks. If nothing else, the hire has been a match made in Heaven for Verlander. He has dropped his BB/9 ratio from 3.90 last season to 2.66 this season. Meanwhile, he has upped his K/9 ratio from 7.30 to 10.65. All told, his K/BB ratio has improved from 1.87 ( 64th last year among 88 qualified starters) to 4.00 this season.

Ok, so he has struck out more and walked less. He also has not had a pitching coach attempt to change the mechanics or arm slot angle of that golden arm of his. Surely, that cannot be it. And, it isn't. Last season, Verlander threw his fastball at an average of 93.6 MPH. This season, he has wowed the ladies with a fastball that averages 95.5 MPH. That 2 MPH increase in velocity and improved movement and location has led to a fastball that has saved 17.8 runs this season, according to Fan Graphs. Of the qualified pitchers, Verlander's fastball has been the 4th best fastball in MLB this season. In comparison, last year, Verlander had a fastball that saved just 0.4 runs.

Another change with Verlander has been the difference in his pitch selection compared to last season and his career norms. Verlander was always a plus curveball pitcher and it has been his second best pitch over his career. This year, he is throwing his curveball and fastball more than at any other point in his career. On the other hand, he is throwing his changeup just 8.5% of the time this season. That is a far cry from the changeup he elected to throw nearly 16 % of the time last season. In addition to that, Verlander is also throwing his slider now more than he ever has before. It is still nowhere near a plus pitch but the experimenting with a 4th pitch, an increased reliance on his deadly fastball and curveball and a reduced reliance on his changeup might be one of the telling points in his comeback season.

Looking at the plate discipline stats for the batters that Verlander has faced, the improvement he has made this season is even more telling. For one, batters are swinging at 27.8% of pitches outside the stike zone. That is a 3% increase from last season. Also, batters are swining at his pitches inside the strike zone less so than they have at any other point in his career. Thus, the ensuing stats are not surprising. A batters O-Contact % against Verlander (percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone) is down a full 10 % from last season. Batters are connecting on just 56% of those pitches. The opposing batters are also hitting pitches inside the strike zone less so then at any other point in Verlander's career. From Verlander's perspective, he is throwing 55.5 % of his pitches for strikes (just 50% last year), and his first strike % of 63.1 is a 5% increase of his total last year.

In summary, Verlander is/has ...

1. Striking more guys out
2. Walking fewer batters
   
3. Increased the velocity on his fastball by 2 MPH
4. Improved the location, command and movement on his fastball
   
5. Relied more heavily on his fastball and curveball while throwing half as many changeups
6. Throwing more strikes within the zone that batters are not swinging at
   
7. Inducing the most swing and misses of pitches outside of the strike zone of his career by a substantial margin.
8. Not being coached by Chuck Hernandez
9. Being guided by Rick Knapp
10. Awesome
    

All together, it accounts for the numbers that bear repeating: Verlander has the 4th best FIP in MLB at 2.71, the 2nd best K/9 ratio, 11th best K/BB, 10th best tRA, 7th best WPA, and the 4th best WAR. He has turned himself into maybe the rarest thing in baseball... a true, shutdown ace. Now, as fans, all we can do is sit back and enjoy the pleasure that is watching him pitch. The scary thing? He's only 26 and has another decade of terrorizing hitters left in him. Good luck, American League hitters.

Justin Verlander: It's Time

In the grand scheme of things, winning today may not make a difference in the Tigers run for the Central Division title. But, in my eyes, this was one of the most important wins of the year for the Tigers and Justin Verlander. Sure, the Tigers won the first two games of the series with Figaro pitching and Armando attempting to pitch effectively. Sure, the offense exploded those two games. Sure, Leyland has just been extended and Maggs has been riding the pine.

But, today was about Verlander and his rise to being an elite pitcher in the game, and his potential to be much more than that. Last time out, against the Cardinals, Verlander had a game reminiscent of his April outings. 5 Earned Runs in 4 innings of work. Unfortunately, in April, Verlander had 3 outings where he allowed 5 earned runs or more, and he could have been shaken by that last poor outing, and his past consistency problems when taking the mound today. He probably would have been in 2008.

But, 2009 is not 2008. Verlander went 7 2/3 innings today, allowed only 2 solo home runs, and beat the other team's ace in a crucial sweep over the 1st place Brewers. He is now 4th in the AL in wins, 1st in strikeouts, 8th in WHIP, 12th in ERA, and 4th in WAR, WPA and FIP in all of MLB. This should not be news to any of you. You've seen Verlander pitch. You know he has the stuff to dominate. These last 11 starts of his (with the St. Louis start as the one fluke) have proven that, as he has only allowed 15 earned runs. And, only 10 when you take out the fluke game against St. Louis.

Now, though, its time for Verlander to take it to the next level. His ERA looks good. His WHIP is good. And, in almost 75% of his starts this year, he has been good to great. No complaints from my end. He has turned into a legit #1 starter and the ace of the Tigers staff. Now the question is: Does JV want more? Does he want to be THE ace in all of baseball? Grienke has had his run this year, and is slowly starting to come back down to Earth. Halladay has been great for years, but even he does not have the "stuff" that Verlander does. Santana has slipped a little from his 2004-2006 heyday. Sabathia has struggled (by his standards) in New York. Surprise, surprise, right? Lincecum and Felix Hernandez are two young pitchers with the stuff that Verlander has, and each have proven track records. But, Verlander can join them and surpass all of them. He has arguably the best fastball in the game, and two other plus pitches with his curveball and changeup. His BABIP of .324 should regress to the mean, and his 2.59 FIP suggests that his defense has let him down a couple times, and his ERA should continue to drop.

Its time for Verlander to seize the opportunity. No more hiccups like the St. Louis game. No more consistency problems like in 2008 or in April. He has roughly 20 starts left in his 2009 season. Its all laid out there for him. With a strong finish, he could win the A.L. Cy Young, grab the strikeout crown, and post the lowest ERA in the game. He could lead the Tigers to the postseason and be pitching meaningful baseball again in September and October when the lights shine the brightest and the stars are made. Verlander has the chance to become THE star pitcher in the game. He's got the natural talent, the new-found attitude, and past results from his No-Hitter to this recent 11 start stretch of dominance to suggest that he can be that star pitcher. Today was another step in that right direction after recovering from a previous poor start.

Its time, Justin. The opportunity is there. Seize it. Its time.