Lets look at some recent links around the Pistons blogosphere and various media outlets...
-Yahoo! Sports reports that Boston offered the Pistons big man Glen Davis and guards J.R. Giddens and Gabe Pruitt for Jason Maxiell and a first-round pick. Evidently, the Pistons, Trail Blazers and Hornets have tried to work a sign-and-trade deal for Big Baby. All reports suggest that the Pistons turned down the first deal and for good reason. Even if one assumes that Davis is better than Maxiell, he is not worth a 1st round pick that could turn out to be a lottery pick. But, back to the Davis vs. Maxiell debate. Should there even be one?
Based on nearly every advanced statistic, Davis was one of the worst big men in basketball last year and was an inferior player to Maxiell. Maxiell had a superior true shooting percentage (TS %), rebound percentage (both offensive and defensive rebounding), PER (15.8 to 10.7), win shares and WARP (3.5 to -0.3). As of today, it is not even close. Maxiell is a vastly superior player. Could that change in a few years? Sure. Davis is taller, younger and may have the potential to actually be a starter one day, while Max does not.
But, I feel as if this hype for Davis is just that: hype and no substance. Even if you compared Davis' second year numbers to Max's and the numbers from his playoff run of this year to Max's 2nd trip to the playoffs (last postseason), Max still looks good in comparison to Davis. Other than win shares, Max would have a superior PER, TS%, TRB%, B% and defensive rating. Also, his playoff numbers in the 2008 playoffs are superior to what Davis had this year. PER is basically identical (15.1 to 15.2), but TS%, TRB%, B%, Stl%, offensive and defensive rating all favor Max and win shares is nearly identical (1.1 to 1.3). The Pistons still need a starting center but they are not in such a desperate need for a big man that they ship out a bench player for another inferior bench player.
-Kevin Sawyer at Detroit Bad Boys is in favor of the return of smallball. This would have Stuckey at PG, Gordon at SG, Hamilton at SF, Prince at PF and Villanueva at C. A lot has changed in the NBA in recent years. Centers are becoming less and less prominent and spacing the floor, being able to handle the ball, run up and down the court and to shoot it from the outside is a highly valued trait for big men. Villanueva and Prince both would cause matchup problems at the 4 and 5 spot. However, a team still needs to be able to defend, and that is one of the supposed downfalls of smallball. It is interesting to note, however, that our best 5 man defensive unit last year was a smallball unit which featured Iverson as the PG, Stuckey at SG, Hamilton at SF, Prince at PF and Rasheed Wallace at center. It is also interesting that the opposing players PER stayed the same for Hamilton at the 3 spot and Prince's opposing PF had a PER of 12.6 (15 is average). So, on paper, this might make some sense.
But, we have to be careful in evaluating these numbers and realize that while Prince's and Hamilton's defensive numbers did not suffer, it is hard to project these numbers for a lot of minutes. Would they hold up if given 30-35 minutes at those spots a night, every night? Also, did Rasheed's presence in the middle of the paint have a subtle effect that we may have missed? Villanueva played center in 11 % of Milwaukee's minutes and allowed an opposing PER of 27.4. Clearly, then, our defense would suffer with such a weak defensive player in that position. We could give Kwame Brown some minutes there in the smallball lineup b/c he is a superior defensive player, but then that would eliminate some of the mismatches we would be hoping to create with the smallball lineup. I do think, however, that it could be a potential wrinkle that Kuester will throw out every now and again against the Pistons opponents.
-The Wages of Wins Journal is a basketball site that attempts to predict the wins for a given NBA team based on the individual performances of each player and the number of wins a player can provide for that team. He generally is within +- 3 of his projected win total and a further explanation to this madness can be found at his site. Below is his take on the Pistons roster as currently constructed...
SG: Richard Hamilton [1.9 Wins Produced, 0.040 WP48]
SF: Tayshaun Prince [7.3 Wins Produced, 0.114 WP48]
PF: Charlie Villanueva [3.6 Wins Produced, 0.082 WP48]
C: Kwame Brown [2.4 Wins Produced, 0.117 WP48]
Second Team:
PG: Will Bynum [1.2 Wins Produced, 0.071 WP48]
SG: Ben Gordon [4.9 Wins Produced, 0.078 WP48]
SF: Austin Daye [Rookie]
PF: Jason Maxiell [2.9 Wins Produced, 0.098 WP48]
C: Chris Wilcox [0.2 Wins Produced, 0.008 WP48]
If you add up the 2008-09 Wins Produced by the veteran players all you get is 28.4. So unless Austin Daye is suddenly one of the top five players in the NBA – or these veterans become much more productive players — it looks like the Pistons are in trouble."
-Just for reference, an average player posts a 0.100 WP48. Also of note, since 1978 no team has won an NBA title without one regular player (minimum 41 games played, 24.0 minutes per game) posting at least a 0.200 WP48. Only one team (the 1978-79 Seattle Super Sonics) managed to win a title without a regular player crossing the 0.250 threshold. Based on that, we are a ways away from winning a title.
You can tell from that what he thinks of Rip Hamilton's overall game and Kwame Brown surprisingly graded out very well. In essence, he is projecting between 25 and 32 wins for the Pistons. Now, this is by no means a perfect statistic or predictor of what will happen. The schedule, a relatively weak East after the first 3 teams, injuries to key components on rival teams, and the development of guys like Stuckey, Gordon, Villanueva, etc. into better and more productive players would throw his projection for a loop. But, it is something to consider. Sadly, he may be on to something...
Since Magic and Larry Bird have entered the NBA, superstars have ruled the league. In fact, they haven't just ruled the league they are so big that they make other 1 name stars like Prince, Cher and Madonna wince. Magic, Bird, Kareem, MJ, Shaq, Kobe and Duncan have been the names synonymous with NBA titles in the last 30ish years. Other stars like Dr. J and Moses Malone or Isiah Thomas or Hakeem or Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce have also snuck in and won a title or two. But, the prevailing philosophy has always been: get the supersar, build around that superstar and get that said superstar a great complementary player and you have the recipe for a championship contending team.
Joe Dumars does not buy into that logic. At least, none of his actions as the GM for the Pistons for nearly a decade suggests that he does. Instead of getting a superstar player, he built the championship team in 2004 around the "5 beats 2" model. In other words, a great starting 5 will beat a superstar and a great complementary player. And, for one season, he was absolutely right. On the way to building that team, he made one of the greatest free agent signings in recent NBA history with the signing of Chauncey Billups, fleeced some guy named Michael Jordan in the Jerry Stackhouse-Rip Hamilton deal, made a great draft pick with the selection of Tayshaun Prince, picked up Ben Wallace in a sign and trade for Grant Hill and watched him become the best defensive player in the game, and acquired a Hall-of-Fame talent in Rasheed Wallace for a bag of popcorn and a breath mint. He also fired Rick Carlisle and hired a vagabond coach and one of the truly great teachers of the game in Larry Brown. And with that, he created a core that would be a top 5 team in the game for 6 straight seasons and an NBA champion in 2004. Critics be damned, Joe D. proved that he could go against conventional wisdom and still win an NBA title.
I don't want to make it seem like Joe D. was perfect or anything prior to the start of that run. He had failed failed draft picks (Mateen Cleaves and Rodney White) and allowed Michael Curry to stick around on the team for too long. But, he was damn near perfect. Since 2004, much of his work has been spotty, at best. The free agent signing of Antonio McDyess was a great one. Letting Ben Wallace walk away to the Bulls by not matching their offer was also a good move. Drafting Rodney Stuckey may turn out to be a good pick. He also acquired a guy who looked like Fabio and who doesn't like that? Other than that, though, he has left much to be desired since the end of the 2003 season. The Darko pick prevented the Pistons from adding Hall of Fame wing players like Carmelo Anthony or Wade or an ideal complementary big man like Chris Bosh. The pick of Carlos Delfino prevented the Pistons from acquiring an elite scoring SF off the bench like Josh Howard or another big man like Kendrick Perkins. Joe D. also never adequately replaced Ben Wallace (Nazr Mohammed, Chris Webber and Kwame Brown?) and never found a competent backup to Prince/a good wing player off the bench (Fabio, Maurice Evans and Flip Murray come to mind as failed options). Needless to say, his drafts since 2003 have also been disappointing, as Stuckey is the only impact player he has drafted in that time frame.
With all that said, Joe D. has earned the right to rebuild this team and he is looking to correct 4-5 years of poor moves by going back to a familiar model: the "5 beats 2" model, as I like to call it. Dumars is banking on Rodney Stuckey to become the modern day Chauncey Billups and become the leader of this team. Can John Kuester, a Larry Brown disciple, turn Stuckey from a potential combo scoring guard like Chauncey was into an elite NBA PG like Chauncey became? Joe D. is obviously hoping lightening strikes twice. He is hoping that Ben Gordon develops into what Rip Hamilton was/still is: a dependable scorer who can get you 20 a night and be a prime-time scorer and shooter in the clutch. He is also hoping that Charlie Villanueva becomes the good Rasheed Wallace. You know, the one with Hall of Fame talent who featured one of the best post up moves in the game, could stretch the defense with the threat of the 3, and play solid one-on-one defense down low while cleaning up the glass. In essence, Joe D. has 3 pieces of his puzzle and needs 2 more. He will try to get those with the eventual trading of Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince and possibly the development of Austin Daye. Dumars probably sees Daye as a better offensive and worse defensive version of Prince. A 6'9"-6'10" beanpole with a metabolism that makes nearly every other American jealous, and a jack-of-all trades player who can handle the rock and break people down off the dribble. If Daye does become that player, then he would become piece #4 in Joe D's mad concoction of a championship contending team. Piece #5 could come with the trading of Rip or Tay or possibly both for a defensive stalwart at the center position. Then, with that, Joe D., in his mind, would have re-created the 2004 team as close as he possibly could in today's NBA.
Could lightening strike twice? Could Joe D. really be that smart that he would outwit 29 other GM's again? We'll see. It should be a bumpy ride along the way but it will all be worth it if it ends up being fun in the end.
Welcome to the wonderful world that is the NBA salary cap. The Pistons traded Aaron Afflalo and Walter Sharpe to Denver for a future second round pick. Afflalo was a first round pick in 2007 (27th overall) and Sharpe (32nd overall) was a early second round pick that we got in the D.J. White deal. So, in essence, we traded two late first round picks for cap space. Rumors have circulated that we are in talks to acquire Carlos Boozer or Tyson Chandler in a potential trade and/or that we may sign Glen Davis or Dwight Gooden in free agency. The move clears up $1.8 million in salary and what follows is a breakdown of our salary cap situation by Dave Dial...
A roster charge if the team has fewer than 12 players (players under contract, free agents included in team salary, players given offer sheets, and first round draft picks). The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player below 12. The roster charge only applies during the offseason.
The minimum salary for the 2009-2010 season set by the NBA is $457,588. So you have to add that amount to both slots left vacant by Afflalo and Sharpe, since the Piston roster had exactly 12 players before the trade.
There are different numbers associated with Jason Maxiell's contract. Some websites have him listed with a 4-year extension set at $5 million per year, instead of the escalating contract that I have(and that is normally used). Here is what the Pistons cap situation would look like if Maxiell's contract was set at $5 million per year.
So the Pistons committed salary is either $52.9 or $53.5 million, depending on how Maxiell's contract was structured. Which would leave the Pistons with $4.2-$4.8 million of cap space after the trade with Denver. What the Pistons do with that space is not yet known. There are rumors they will attempt to sign Glen (Big Baby) Davis, and there is some speculation that Dumars made the move to initiate a trade of larger proportions."
-All of the cap projections that I have seen have Max's contract at $5 million next season, so I believe that the projected total of $53.528, 793 million is the correct one. With the salary cap set at $57.7 million, we should have $4.2 million in cap space. That should be enough to bring in Glen Davis or Drew Gooden as a free agent acquisition and it also clears up a potential trade for Boozer or Chandler. Joe D. could go a lot of different directions so I am not sure if it is even fair to speculate. Either way, we need help in the front court and if the trade route is the one they may be going, then Max, Brown, Rip and Prince will be on the trading block.
-As for what we will be losing....
Afflalo appeared in 74 games this season and played in 16.7 minutes a night (16.5 in the playoffs). He was our best 3 point shooter last year (that will probably be Ben Gordon this year) and averaged roughly 5 points a game. More than anything, though, he was a dependable and good defender off the bench at the 2 guard spot. He will probably never be better than a second guard off the bench but he is the type of guy who could fill a role on a championship team (smart bench player who can shoot the 3/stretch the defense and play quality defense). With Gordon, Hamilton and Stuckey, I kind of liked the idea of giving Afflalo a little more minutes this season to help us on the defensive end of the court. Until I see the next move, and there will be a next move, I cannot really comment on this trade. We need frontcourt help, but I do feel as if Afflalo is a guy we will miss this season and in the coming years if we become a championship contender.
Sharpe was a terrible pick by Dumars. He rarely played in college at UAB, had off court trouble, and did nothing to stand out to warrant a selection when players like Mario Chalmers and Luc Mbah a Moute were available. This was always one of those picks that GM's sometimes make to show how smart they really are or believe that they are. No one had Sharpe on the radar and if Sharpe panned out, how good would that make Joe D. look? On the flip side, this pick tanked and we lost out on a chance to draft a guy like Mario Chalmers who would be a great backup PG, at least (he started every game for Miami last year). I like Joe D. and feel that he is a top 5 GM in the NBA, but this was an awful and inexcusable pick from day 1. This trade just confirms that.
"It’s a bit curious the team decided to guarantee Washington on the eve of summer league — why not wait a couple of weeks until the coaches can see him up close? — but assuming Greenberg’s intel is correct, the Pistons now have six guards on the roster (Stuckey, Bynum, Gordon, Afflalo, Hamilton and Washington) …
Anyone else think Rip Hamilton is on the way out of town? At 31 years old, he’s suddenly the oldest player on the team, not to mention the highest paid. At 6-7, Washington can also play forward, but the Pistons just drafted a trio of small forwards, and, as strange as it sounds, Dumars has already hinted that all three might make the roster."
-I do find this move somewhat curious. But, at 6'7", Washington could also play a little at the 3 spot if need be, and I doubt he sees much time this year. If anything, this may be a move made simply to get him stateside and to let him get a lot of playing time in the NBDL.
"Portsmouth Invitational Tournament: Day Four April 14, 2008 Deron Washington, one of the local favorites, had his best performance in his final game, scoring 21 points, including a surprising 4-5 shooting from beyond the arc, much higher than his regular season statistics would have you think he was capable of. This game really showcased Washington’s athleticism as he was given several opportunities in the open floor to make plays for his team. In the half court set he did show a quick first step but his lack of tremendous ball handling or savvy kept him from being more effective at taking defenders off the dribble. As was the case during the regular season he was inconsistent on the offensive end, making both impressive and poor plays when he had the ball. While there were flashes of ability at multiple points throughout the week, Washington confirmed what we already knew about him: he is a tremendous athlete with a poor basketball IQ and plenty of skill development needed. Defensively he gambled excessively and seemed to play with a reckless abandon that had to make those around him nervous, as his play frequently borders on dirty. Most concerning was his poor body language and the way he just didn’t seem to fit in with anyone else on the team, not cheering his teammates on, and showing very little regard for making anyone except himself look good."
-A lot of mixed reviews there. At the draft combine he had a 40 inch vertical leap, so the athleticism is certainly there. But, considering the reports on his lack of ball handling or basketball IQ, he seems like little more than a guy who comes off the bench in a blowout to excite fans with a good dunk. In order to become anything more than that, he needs to pack on some weight, and develop a better shooting touch. At Virginia Tech, in his final season, he shot 41.6% from the field, 26.9% from 3 point land, and just 67.1% at the free throw line.
-In other news, Rasheed Wallace is clearly a wanted man. The Celtics have offered the full mid-level exception for two years to 'Sheed. Last year, he became incredibly disinterested with the Pistons and was little more than an average player who caused more harm than good with those ever-present on-court tantrums. But, 'Sheed on a contender as a backup who could provide 25 minutes a night would be an ideal situation. The Celtics have maybe 1 year left to really make another run at a crown and they are going for it with Wallace. Rasheed's plus defense against Dwight Howard also has probably popped into the Celtics mind. I still imagine that Cleveland and San Antonio will both make runs at him, though. This is not quite a done deal.
-According to CBS Sports, we could see a potential sign-and-trade between the Pistons and Bulls for Gordon and Iverson.
"Ben Gordon to the Pistons is a done deal. The method by which he will get there is still under discussion.
CBSSports.com has learned that the Bulls and Pistons may yet revisit Detroit's agreement with Ben Gordon and instead investigate a sign-and-trade that would send Allen Iverson to Chicago.
Discussions have not yet reached the highest levels of both organizations, but the revised look at how Gordon goes from Chicago to Detroit would benefit Gordon and the Bulls. Gordon would get an extra year, and thus more money, by signing with the Bulls and getting traded. The Bulls, who currently are getting nothing for losing him, would get Iverson -- a fading future Hall of Famer who would get to finish his career in a major market as long as he's willing to accept a secondary role.
It's a farfetched scenario, and not everyone involved would be on board -- particularly the Pistons. The major sticking point would be how to sweeten the deal for Detroit, which would only consider such an option if it would provide significant cap savings. The Pistons took themselves out of the 2010 free-agent sweepstakes by agreeing to terms with Gordon and Charlie Villanueva on the first day of the free-agent negotiating period. Those agreements are not binding until July 8, when the league-mandated moratorium is lifted and the league and players association agree on the salary cap and luxury tax for the 2009-10 season.
A person familiar with the situation said the Pistons would flat-out refuse to entertain a sign-and-trade for Gordon unless it provided significant savings. The Bulls, too, may not be eager to do business with Gordon, whose agent did not give the team a chance to match Detroit's offer."
-The author is right about one thing: this is very farfetched. Unless this has the potential to give us some additional salary cap relief, I see no way that the Pistons would be willing to do the Bulls any favors. And, why would the Bulls even have any interest in Iverson? I cannot see this happening.
-According to the Free Press, the Red Wings are closing in on a 2 year deal for Vile Leino. No financial numbers were given but I would imagine it is between a $800,000 and $900,000 cap hit. Leino had 9 points in 13 regular season games and got some experience in the Stanley Cup finals. I imagine he will play on the 4th line early on withe the potential that he could play top 6 minutes if the need arises.
In that same article, Holland talks about the Mikael Samuelsson contract negotiations.
But general manager Ken Holland said Thursday he's "not optimistic" that he'll be able to keep unrestricted free agent Mikael Samuelsson, who is seeking a long-term deal averaging upwards of $2 million a year. The Wings want to keep Samuelsson closer to $1.5 million a year.
-Make no mistake about it, that is a low ball offer to Samuelsson. He ranked tied for 152nd in the league in scoring this past season. So, he is a #5/6 forward on most teams in the league (stats-wise) and that tends to correlate to a 2 million dollar salary, or one slightly above that (174 forwards earned 2 million dollars or more this year).
And, considering his decent two-way play, experience and size, that is not an overpayment. Not even close. In fact, $2 million is probably what he should get with a fair deal.
At the very worst, he would play on the 3rd and 4th lines for his 2-3 year deal, and he will probably be one of the best and most versatile 3rd and 4th line forwards in the game. There are worst ways to spend money as a GM.
Essentially, though, it seems as if they are more keen on the idea of keeping Hudler. Once Hossa walked, the Wings could keep one of Sammy or Hudler. Based on this article and this report from Babcock's Death Stare, we can conclude that they valued Hudler more so than Samuelsson.
"As some of you know I live in Novi, the town that nearly all of Detroit’s Swedes call home. I’ve got confirmation that Samuelsson’s house is sold."
-So, how are those contract negotiations going for Hudler? Again, from the same article:
"Restricted free agent Jiri Hudler plans on filing for arbitration before the weekend. At that point, the Wings can choose whether the arbitrator should decide on a one-year or two-year deal. Hudler, 25, who made $1.15 million last season, will see his salary increase anywhere from the $2.5 million the Wings are offering to possibly an award in the $3.5-million to $4-million range. If the Wings don't like the arbitrator's number, they can trade Hudler."
-While I do believe that the Wings management likes Hudler more so than Samuelsson, they are not crazy. Hudler is not worth over $3 million a year, and yet, he could command that. Among forwards, he finished tied for 73rd with 57 points this past regular season. His agent could argue that he is a legit top 6 forward and since he is only 25, he could make an argument that he is only going to get better. Having watched Hudler, though, he is not a high potential player. His poor skating and lack of size is a good bet to always hold him back as nothing more than a bottom-tier second line player who can really light the lamp on the power play. At even strength, though, his defensive deficiencies cannot be hid and that is why he does not get top 6 minutes on our team. It will be interesting to see where these contract negotiations go.
This is a second in a three part series that will look at Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and the Pistons overall roster. Scroll down to find the posts on Ben Gordon. What follows is a post on the $7 million dollar man.
-A lot of us saw this coming. Dumars was adamant that he wanted two impact free agents. Boozer wanted $13-15 million. That was not going to fly with Dumars so Boozer stayed in Utah by activating his player option, and we ended up with Gordon and Villanueva. I have already evaluated Charlie V. so I will link a lot to that post. First, though, lets evaluate the ever important contract.
Contract
-Despite what the perception might be, this signing is not an overpayment. No way, no how. The following are PF's who will make more than Villanueva...
Kevin Garnett
Josh Smith
Boris Diaw
Dirk Nowitzki
Keynon Martin
Troy Murphy
Zach Randolph
Pau Gasol
Jermaine O’Neal
David West
Darko Milicic
Rashard Lewis
Elton Brand
Amare Stoudamire
Tim Duncan
Chris Bosh
Carlos Boozer
Antwan Jamison
Count 'em. That is 19 PF who will earn more than Villanueva. We are counting on him to be our starting PF, and I would take him over several players who are listed above. If anything, especially with the possibility that he might become a 20 pts and 10 rebound a game player, we got an absolute steal for signing him at this low of a salary. Obviously, he is not good defensively and that should be taken into account. But, he is at least an average PF (above average offense and below average defense). Considering how well size is paid for in the NBA, we should not be mad at this deal.
What follows is a repeat of an earlier post I made about Villanueva with some subtle changes...
First, lets provide a little background on Villanueva. He is 6'11" 232 and has been a well-known name in the world of basketball for awhile. He was one of the top recruits in the nation in high school before eventually signing with U Conn. After leaving early from U Conn, he was picked by Toronto with the 7th pick in the first round of the 2005 NBA draft. In his rookie year, he was a runner up for Rookie of the Year after averaging 13 points and 6 boards a game. That offseason he was traded to Milwaukee. In '07 and '08 he averaged roughly 12 points and 6 boards.
It was this past season where Villanueva had his best NBA season. In just 26.9 minutes a game, he averaged 16.7 points a game and nearly 7 boards a game. He also had a PER of 18.64 (15 is considered average, and 20 is at a near All Star level). So, lets go beyond the box score and dig deeper into his game...
Rebounding
According to 82games.com, Villanueva had a rebounding rate of 26.9, which put him at 30th in the league, and just ahead of Varejao and Pau Gasol. For comparisons sake, McDyess was in the top 10 in this ranking for the league with Dwight Howard obviously number one. Rasheed Wallace had a rating of 24.4. While that does not sound so bad, remember that there are 60 starting PF and C in the league. He ranked right in the middle. So, as a #2 rebounder on your team, he would be pretty good. But, if you are counting on him to be your best rebounder, then more than likely, that team would be greatly disappointed.
Passing
He had a 3.3 passer rating, which tied him with several players, including Pau Gasol. According to the media, Gasol is considered a good passing big man, but I never really saw that with Villanueva. I think a passing rating for a big man can be skewed somewhat just like a rebounding rate can be skewed for guards. I will remain neutral on this and say he is an average to slightly above average passing big man.
Shooting
He had a free throw percentage of nearly 84%, so this is a strong point of his game. He shot nearly 45 % from the field, and 35 % from 3 point land. He does have a good jump shot, and he can score the ball as evidenced by scoring nearly 17 points a game in just 27 minutes.
Shot selection
This is big in my mind. Rasheed Wallace took jump shots away from the basket 89% of the time last year. That is way, way too much. Villanueva, on the other hand, shot inside 36% of the time. He is not a traditional back-to-the-basket player, so he will float around a little bit on the perimeter. But, this is not too bad of a rate.
Defense
Ok, so he is a decent rebounder and passer, and a pretty good shooter with a somewhat acceptable shot selection for a big man with his style of game. Defensively? Meh. Playing at the center position, his opponent had a PER of 27.4. So, at all costs, we cannot let him play at center or he would be a complete mismatch. At PF, he is a lot better but still a below average defender. His opponent averaged a PER of 18.3 against him. As a PF, he averaged a PER of 20.7. So, he is a plus player even with that defense.
Other important info
It is interesting to note that Milwaukee's best 5 man unit last year, by a substantial margin, was with Villanueva on the bench. That is something to consider. His Roland Rating (which takes into account how well the team performs when the player is off the court as opposed to when he is on the court) was +0.2.For comparisons sake, Rasheed had a Roland Rating of 0.0, and Iverson had a rating of +0.1 It should also be wise to point out that he draws fouls about 9% of his shots, or the same rate that Tayshaun Prince does. Finally, Villanueva has a very high usage rate of 26.0. That ranks 14th in the NBA. Other than Lou Williams of Philly and Will Bynum, the players above him are all #1 options on their teams. What does that tell you about Lou Williams, Bynum and Villanueva's game? For a guy who is clearly not a #1 option or even a #2 option, he requires the ball too much to perform well imo.
Analysis Looking at the numbers, he is a good #2 rebounder on a team (but we do not have a #1 rebounder if McDyess leaves), a good scorer who can play a hybrid position like Dumars apparently is leaning towards going to more. And, he appears to be a decent passing big man. There is more than meets the eye, though, with Villanueva. He is a below average defender who does not draw fouls at a rate you would like from a PF. Also, his team did not suffer when he was on the bench. Finally, his usage rate is dowright startling, and I have no idea how he and Will Bynum would exist on the same court.
Still, he is only going to be 25 next season and his natural talent is undeniable as he will probably be a 20 point a night scorer when he gets the minutes, and get you 8 boards a night. The price was not outrageous so this is a cap-friendly deal. Assuming we only play him at the PF spot, and we acquire a very good rebounder and defensive center to make up for his shortcomings defensively, then he should be an intriguing option going forward.
This is the first in a 3 part series where I will break down Ben Gordon, Charlie V., and then the Pistons organization and roster and how these two players will fit. In this post I will break down the $11 million man.
As the title suggests, Ben Gordon brings a lot to the Pistons. The problem is, all that he brings to the Pistons involves pros (lethal scorer) and cons (high turnover rate and not a plus defender). I will break all of this down and more in the following paragraphs.
The Contract
Gordon is reportedly getting $55 million for 5 years for an average of 11 a year. Based on the other salaries in the league, where does that put him in comparison for other starting SG or premiere SG?
The following are the players who will make less than Gordon next year (a couple of these guys are still on entry-level deals and are due big raises).
-Raja Bell
-Delonte West
-Antoine Wright
-JR Smith
-Stephen Jackson
-Eric Gordon
-OJ Mayo
-Keyon Dooling
-Rasual Butler
-Thabo Sefolosha
-Leonardo Barbosa
-Brandon Roy
-Ronnie Brewer
-Randy Foye
-Of these, Brandon Roy is due a huge raise. JR Smith will probably land a similar deal to what Gordon got. Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo and Randy Foye all have the potential to cash in. The following are two players who have signed similar deals to Ben Gordon:
Kevin Martin
Manu Ginobili
Ginobili will make slightly under $11 million next year and Martin will make just over $10 million before progressing to nearly $13 million in the coming years. So, how do they compare?
Totals
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-First and foremost, Gordon does not compare favorably to Ginobili. If we are to believe that Gordon is supposed to be a super sub like Ginobili, and is getting paid like that, then Gordon is going to have to develop into more of a complete player to earn that salary. Ginobili is a better scorer, passer and rebounder and an integral part of 3 championship runs. Other than injury concerns, Ginobili is a vastly superior player. The hope, I guess, is for Gordon to continue to develop into that type of player off the bench.
-Again, despite some injury concerns, Martin is a superior player to Gordon in nearly all aspects of the game as evidenced by the numbers. Based on this, it would appear that this is a slight overpayment and that Gordon is not worth more than $10 million a year.
-The following are the SG due more than Gordon next year.
-Ray Allen
-Joe Johnson
-Kobe Bryant
-Wade
-Michael Redd
-Larry Hughes
-Vince Carter
-Rip Hamilton
-So, to summarize, there are 8 SG who have higher contracts than Gordon and two players with salary amounts within $1 million of what Gordon will earn. Ray Allen, Hughes and Carter will not be worth more than 10 million at their next contract negotiation. Roy, Mayo and maybe JR Smith will take their spots. So, basically, a top 10 SG will get upwards of $10 million or more a year. Is Gordon a top 10 SG and is he of the caliber of Ginobili or Kevin Martin? I think this is an overpayment and 5 years for $45 million would be a better deal.
-Regardless, he is here and he is a Piston. So, who is Ben Gordon and what type of player is he?
Bio
Gordon stayed at U Conn for three years and was apart of their championship team in 2004 with Emeka Okafor. After declaring early for the draft he was selected with the 3rd pick in the NBA draft by the Bulls. In his rookie season he came into the league averaging 15 points in 24 minutes a game and was named to the All Rookie team and the Sixth Man of the Year. Unfortunately, his game has not developed as many would have hoped since then.
The next three seasons he was a part-time starter and averaged between 31-33 minutes a season and 17-21 points a game. His best season to date was in 2007 when he had career highs in PER, Pts and assists. Following this season, he rejected a 5 year/$50 million dollar deal from the Bulls and his value as a player has appeared to fallen off the past 2 seasons.
This past season Gordon was given the reins at the full time starter for the first time in Chicago. He averaged nearly 37 minutes a game and started 76 games. He had 20.7 points,3.4 assists and 3.5 rebounds a game and a PER of 17.0. This postseason he averaged 24.3 points a game against the Celtics.
Shooting/Scoring
This is where Gordon makes his money.He ranks in the top 10 among SG in 3 point shooting, FG % and Free Throw Pct, and is top 10 among SG in Pts per game. Gordon is hands down one of the best shooters in the league from the SG spot. In terms of shot selection, 80% of his shots are jump shots and he draws fouls at a slightly better rate than Prince, so he does not go to the lane much. And, when the stakes are at their highest, he shoots jumps shots 91% of the time in "clutch time" (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points). So, that is something to keep an eye on. Another thing to keep an eye on is that Gordon takes 45% of his shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. There is a good chance that he will make you scratch your head sometimes with his shot selection. On the plus side, his usage rating of 23.3 is reasonable, and despite the perception that he dominates the ball, the numbers do not bear that out. He is not in the top 10 for usage rate for SG. To recap:
A top 10 shooter by any measure among other SG and a top 10 scorer
Rarely drives to the hoop, especially in crunch time
Prone to taking shots early in the shot clock
Rebounding
-Gordon had a rebounding rating of 9.7. Hamilton had a rebounding rate of 9.5 so Gordon is roughly the same caliber of a rebounder as Hamilton is. In other words, rebounding is not his strong suit and he is probably only good for about 3 a game. He is an average rebounder for his position.
Passing
-Gordon had a passer rating of 4.8 last year and his 3.4 assists a game both put him in the middle of the pack for SG. But, his 2.4 turnovers a game and his assist/turnover ratio of 1.40 is third worst among SG. An average passer with poor decision making abilities.
Defense
-I walked into my evaluation of Ben Gordon with the assumption that he was a terrible defensive player. After looking at the numbers though, I think a lot of my beliefs were due to misconceptions thrown out there by the media and the like. The SG on the opposing team only averaged a PER of 15.4 (which is basically a league average number). And, comparing his numbers to opposing SG bears that out. Based on the production of the opposing SG last year, Gordon was more productive defensively than Vince Carter, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Martin and Brandon Roy. And, his defenive PER is within 1 of what Manu Ginobili allowed and Kobe Bryant, who is supposedly a first team All NBA defender. Now, this is not to say that he is a great defender. He is not. He is undersized and does not have a great wingspan. He also ranked 24th in the league in steals at the SG spot. But, he does have speed and is probably one of the stronger SG in the game. I am simply arguing that the numbers would suggest that he is an average to slightly below average defender, and will not hurt us defensively as much as some assume. Perception does not always match reality and I will have a lengthy post breaking down his defense in comparison to his peers in the near future. You will be surprised with the results.
Other important information
-Gordon had a Roland Rating of +3.3, and the Bulls were +2.7 when he was on the court compared to when he was off the court. So, he was a plus player for the Bulls last year. His Roland Rating was 13th among SG in the NBA.
Analysis
-A top 10 SG in this league is worth $10 million+. Based on the numbers I have presented, he is getting a slight overpayment and is probably not worth an average of $11 million a year. For next season, he is going to make $9 million. At this point in his career, that is what he should be making on a per year basis. He is without a doubt a top 10 shooter/pure scorer at the SG position. He is an average rebounder for his position and he has one of the worst turnover ratios for SG. So, offensively, he will excite us with some great shooting and annoy us with poor decision making with his passing and with some of his shot selections. Defensively, despite the perception that he is a terrible defender, the numbers would suggest that he is just slightly below average. In short, this is what we are getting:
A pure scorer and shooter
Average rebounder for his position
Below-average when passing, and prone to mistakes
Average to slightly below average defender
-Shortly, I will have a post up about Charlie V and then in another separate post, I will discuss how the Pistons team currently constructed would do next season (hint, we need a big man). And, I will break down some of the potential big men we may be targeting.
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