Know thy enemy: Jeremy Guthrie

Jeremy Guthrie is going for the Orioles tonight and is the first starting pitcher in this series that the Tigers will have seen before and/or have some information to go on from his time in the majors. So, I guess that is something to look forward too.

Guthrie is a 6'1" 196 lb right handed pitcher who has been a part of the Orioles and Indians organizations during his career. In the previous two years, he had posted an ERA of 3.70 and 3.63, respectively. This year, however, he has fallen off the mat a little bit with a 5.37 ERA and the peripheral numbers that suggest that his ERA is no fluke.

Guthrie also has a 5.77 FIP, a .277 BABIP, a LOB % of 69.5, 5.60 tRA, and a 5.36 xFIP. Looking at all of these numbers and putting them into their proper context, there is really nothing to suggest that Guthrie has been the recipient of bad luck. His LOB % is slightly low but so is his BABIP. Guthrie has just not been a good pitcher this year.

Guthrie has a 5.37 K/9 ratio and a 2.94 BB/9 ratio. So, he strikes out fewer batters than the average pitcher will and walks fewer, as well. He has been a fly ball pitcher this year with a 0.80 GB/FB ratio.

Given his lack of strikeouts one might expect that Guthrie is a soft tosser. Instead, he will come at batters with a 93 MPH fastball, 84 MPH slider and 85 MPH changeup. Historically, his fastball and slider have been plus pitches. This year, though, Fan Graphs tells us that his slider has been his only plus pitch.

Guthrie has traditional splits and lefties have mashed him this year to the tune of a .922 OPS. So, we should see Guillen, Thomas and Granderson return to the starting lineup today. He also has a 6.39 ERA on the road this season, so that is another plus for us. So too is the fact that both Grandy and Inge have 8 or more plate appearances against him and have an OPS at 1.000 or higher.

In summary, Guthrie has an ERA that is nearly 2 runs above what he has posted in previous years, and his peripheral numbers suggest that is no fluke. In addition, he has been terrible on the road this year, lefties have crushed him and Grandy and Inge have had a lot of success against him. However, he probably still possesses the stuff that he held in previous years. Assuming that is the case, we just have to hope that he does not have a turn-back-the clock game tonight.

Wings sign Patrick Eaves

Well, the Wings finally signed a winger.

"The Detroit Red Wings announced today that the club has signed free agent forward Patrick Eaves to a one-year contract. In accordance with team policy, additional terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Originally a first round pick (29th overall) of the Ottawa Senators in the 2003 National Hockey League Entry Draft, Eaves has played in 242 career games with the Senators and the Carolina Hurricanes. He scored 20 goals in just 58 games in 2005-06, his rookie season in the NHL. Eaves followed his impressive debut with career highs in assists (18) and points (32) in 2006-07."

-More to come later. Good signing, though. High reward-type player if it all clicks.

Clete Thomas gets Tigers started off right on home stand

Quick thoughts...

• Justin Verlander channeled his inner Jeremy Bonderman in the first inning and was blasted for 5 ER. Then, he went into total shutdown mode and did not allow another ER the rest of the game. A strikeout an inning and just 1 walk on the night is impressive, and despite the rough start, this has to be considered one of JV's best outings. The Verlander in 06, 07 and 08 would probably not have bounced back from that rough first inning. What he did after that first inning just shows you how much he has improved this season.
• Miguel Cabrera has the talent to really carry this team during the stretch run like Manny Ramirez did last year for LA, and Justin Morneau did for the Twins in 2006. The game-tying HR, a great defensive play that robbed Tigers killer Luke Scott of a hit, and a double that knocked in 2 runners is a heck of a start.
• Clete Thomas is my hero.

Ideally, we take at least 5 of 7 on this home stand against the Orioles and Twins. 1 down. Celebrate tonight and get ready for tomorrow, boys.

Know thy enemy: Carl Pavano

Carl Pavano is opposing us today. He was always a pitcher that interested me, especially after his great 2004 season with the Marlins and his great postseason work in 2003 on their run to the title. Unfortunately, his numerous injuries during his days with the Yankees robbed him of his prime.

This year, he has returned to being at least a respectable back of the rotation starter. He has a 5.66 ERA, but he has peripheral numbers that suggest his ERA should decline as the year goes on. He does allow a .303 batting average against but his FIP of 4.36 comes with a real high BABIP of .335 and a criminally low LOB % of just 63.2%. His K/BB rate of 3.82 is outstanding. In other words, do not just look at his ERA when evaluating his pitching this year. Even with his drop in velocity in recent years, his peripheral numbers would suggest that he has rebounded nicely from the injuries. He could be a guy that Jeremy Bonderman could look to and mirror his style.

Pavano is a three pitch pitcher with a fastball, change, and slider. Both his slider and change have been plus pitches this year. Pavano has reverse splits this year with right handers hitting for a better OPS than lefties do against him. Ordonez, Inge and Everett all have an OPS above .800 against him, and both Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn had good games against him earlier this year. It will be interesting to see what Leyland does today with Ordonez. With the reverse splits and decent career numbers, Maggs could potentially get the call.

Pavano has already face us twice this year and both times he faced off against Armando Galaragga. Both results were the same. Pavano pitched 7 innings in one start and 7.1 in the other while only allowing 2 ER in each of the two starts. He also has yet to issue a walk against us this year in 14.1 IP. After losing both of his last starts against us by one run, one would think that the third time would be the charm today for Armando Galaragga and the Tigers. Right?

Know thy enemy: Jeremy Sowers

The Tigers are squaring off tonight against the man, the myth and the legend: Jeremy Sowers. Ok. Maybe he is a bottom of the rotation starter who we should have a good chance of mashing tonight. One or the other.

Sowers is a 6'1" 180 lb lefty with a 5.15 ERA and the peripheral numbers that suggest that his ERA is no fluke. He has a 4.77 FIP and a rather low LOB % of 67.7. On the one hand, that would suggest that his ERA might come down some. On the other hand, his xFIP is 5.27 and his tRA is 4.95. His ERA might come down a little, but he is no world beater. At best, he is a serviceable back of the rotation starter, and I am not a big fan of his "stuff."

Sowers has a K/9 ratio of 4.45 (well below average) and a BB/9 ratio of 3.76 (slightly above average). Put the two together and a K/BB ratio of 1.19 leaves much to be desired. His WHIP and opp. batting average are also above league averages.

Sowers has a 1.07 GB/FB ratio, so we should see a mixture of groundballs and flyballs. He also is the type of pitcher that we have struggled with at times this season. While he is a lefty and that is a good matchup for us, we have just an OPS+ of 96 against FB/GB pitchers and an OPS+ of 93 against finesse pitchers. This finesse lefty is exclusively a 3 pitch pitcher. Sowers comes at hitters with a 88 MPH fastball-type pitch nearly 75% of the time. He also relies on a slider and changeup. According to Fan Graphs, his slider is his best pitch this season, and even that pitch is just slightly above 0 runs saved.

As for what we should expect tonight... we should see a lot of contact made on his pitches. He does not strike out a lot, and opposing batters connect on 87% of his pitches (the average is a little below 81%). He also has traditional splits as right handed batters fare better against him than lefties do. So, we should see Maggs, Thames, Everett and Raburn in the lineup today. Something that does not go in our favor is that Sowers has been a much better pitcher at home this season. He has a 4.38 ERA at home and a 6.18 ERA on the road. On the other hand, we have fared very well against him in the past. In his previous 5 starts against us, he has a 6.66 ERA. Granderson (surprisingly?), Thames and Cabrera all have 8+ at bats against him and an OPS above 1.000. Ordonez, for whatever reason, is just 1 for 8 against him and has a .425 OPS.

In summary, Sowers is a below league average starting pitcher who is a soft tossing lefty that performs better at home. This season, we have struggled against some guys like that but the past success against him is encouraging. I am going to go against my better judgement and guess that we are going to give Porcello a lot of run support tonight.

An evaluation of Jarrod Washburn

At the trade deadline, the Tigers acquired left hander Jarrod Washburn for Luke French and Mauricio Robles. Ok. We all know that. Now, lets evaluate Jarrod Washburn...

Washburn is a dependable arm at the back of a rotation who will eat innings and give us a reasonable chance to win games. He also will throw strikes and he won't beat himself with walks. For a team that had two rookies in its rotation and Galaragga pitching like a #5 starter, there is a lot of value in that. We needed another starter and he was a good one to get.

But, I don't have any delusions about Washburn and I am not fooled by his ERA. And, I hope others are not. Essentially, he is an ideal #4 starter. His FIP has been roughly 4.7 the last 3 years and that is a number that most good #4 starters will post. This year, he is having a career season and could be a good #3 for us. But, he has an incredibly low BABIP and high LOB % and was helped out immensely by the best defensive outfield in baseball in Seattle and their spacious ballpark. His ERA makes him look like a top of the rotation starter, but he is not. Think Nate Robertson circa 2006. That is what Washburn is.

His FIP of 3.75 looks great but that should also rise when his HR/FB % rises. In fact, his xFIP is 4.66. Also, we will need Thomas and Granderson in the outfield on the days he pitches and they are going to need to cover some ground b/c he is a flyball pitcher. Washburn will definitely make our defense work.

On a side note, he has the best fastball-type pitch (split finger fastball) this year according to Fan Graphs. He is also on pace to post the best WAR of his career (if not, it will be a close second to his season in 2002). Even if/when he reverts back to his career norms as a 4.5 ERA-type pitcher, I really don't see anything wrong with that. He will eat a lot of innings for us and Leyland is going to lean on him a lot to make sure our bullpen stays rested for Galaragga and Porcello. I expect to see a lot of 100+ pitching performances for Washburn. But, I just hope that people are not expecting greatness from this guy. He has been a league average to slightly above league average starter most of his career. That is what he is and that is what should be expected of him during his brief 2 month stint with us.

The rise of Justin Verlander

With all of the talk centering around the Tigers turning down a deal for Roy Halladay, lets look at what our current staff ace has done this season...

Last year, Verlander was the talk of Detroit. But, it was for all of the wrong reasons. He ended the season with a 4.84 ERA, 17 losses and the most walks issued in his 3 year career. He had gone from the No-hitter and All Star golden boy to the fans whipping boy. Of course, those who looked at his peripheral numbers (like his 4.18 FIP) would have noticed that his numbers did not defer much from the season he had in 2006 when he was the talk of baseball, and won rookie of the year. Alas, more was expected of Verlander last year and he failed to deliver.

Flash forward to this season, though, and everything is turning up aces (pun intended). Verlander has the 4th best FIP in MLB at 2.71, the 2nd best K/9 ratio, 11th best K/BB, 10th best tRA, 7th best WPA, and his 5.1 WAR (maybe my favorite stat) is 4th best in the game. Basically, by nearly every advanced measure, Verlander has turned into a legit shutdown ace this season. He is without question one of the top 10 pitchers in the game and has been in the top 5 this season in the AL with the likes of Greinke, Halladay, Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez.

So, what has changed? Before this season, Verlander's career best FIP was 3.99 in 2007. That is generally reserved for good #2 starters (Edwin Jackson, for example, has a FIP of 3.89). Now, he has the 4th best FIP in the game. What caused such a resurgence? For one, Chuck Hernandez is gone. The days of trying to adjust Verlander's arm slot appears to be over and he seems to work well under new pitching coach, Rick Knapp. Knapp came to Detroit from the Minnesota Twins organization which prides itself on throwing strikes. That hardly seems like a revolutionary concept but considering that the Tigers had the 4th worst BB/9 ratio in MLB last year, then it became a much needed philosophy. At the time of the hire, it seemed like a perfect fit. Take a guy from an organization who rarely walks batters (lowest BB/9 ratio in MLB last year) and put him with flamethrowers who can strike out and walk the park. Then, with a little magic, the hope was that Knapp's influence would keep the K rates the same (or even better) and drastically cut down on the walks. If nothing else, the hire has been a match made in Heaven for Verlander. He has dropped his BB/9 ratio from 3.90 last season to 2.66 this season. Meanwhile, he has upped his K/9 ratio from 7.30 to 10.65. All told, his K/BB ratio has improved from 1.87 ( 64th last year among 88 qualified starters) to 4.00 this season.

Ok, so he has struck out more and walked less. He also has not had a pitching coach attempt to change the mechanics or arm slot angle of that golden arm of his. Surely, that cannot be it. And, it isn't. Last season, Verlander threw his fastball at an average of 93.6 MPH. This season, he has wowed the ladies with a fastball that averages 95.5 MPH. That 2 MPH increase in velocity and improved movement and location has led to a fastball that has saved 17.8 runs this season, according to Fan Graphs. Of the qualified pitchers, Verlander's fastball has been the 4th best fastball in MLB this season. In comparison, last year, Verlander had a fastball that saved just 0.4 runs.

Another change with Verlander has been the difference in his pitch selection compared to last season and his career norms. Verlander was always a plus curveball pitcher and it has been his second best pitch over his career. This year, he is throwing his curveball and fastball more than at any other point in his career. On the other hand, he is throwing his changeup just 8.5% of the time this season. That is a far cry from the changeup he elected to throw nearly 16 % of the time last season. In addition to that, Verlander is also throwing his slider now more than he ever has before. It is still nowhere near a plus pitch but the experimenting with a 4th pitch, an increased reliance on his deadly fastball and curveball and a reduced reliance on his changeup might be one of the telling points in his comeback season.

Looking at the plate discipline stats for the batters that Verlander has faced, the improvement he has made this season is even more telling. For one, batters are swinging at 27.8% of pitches outside the stike zone. That is a 3% increase from last season. Also, batters are swining at his pitches inside the strike zone less so than they have at any other point in his career. Thus, the ensuing stats are not surprising. A batters O-Contact % against Verlander (percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone) is down a full 10 % from last season. Batters are connecting on just 56% of those pitches. The opposing batters are also hitting pitches inside the strike zone less so then at any other point in Verlander's career. From Verlander's perspective, he is throwing 55.5 % of his pitches for strikes (just 50% last year), and his first strike % of 63.1 is a 5% increase of his total last year.

In summary, Verlander is/has ...

1. Striking more guys out
2. Walking fewer batters
   
3. Increased the velocity on his fastball by 2 MPH
4. Improved the location, command and movement on his fastball
   
5. Relied more heavily on his fastball and curveball while throwing half as many changeups
6. Throwing more strikes within the zone that batters are not swinging at
   
7. Inducing the most swing and misses of pitches outside of the strike zone of his career by a substantial margin.
8. Not being coached by Chuck Hernandez
9. Being guided by Rick Knapp
10. Awesome
    

All together, it accounts for the numbers that bear repeating: Verlander has the 4th best FIP in MLB at 2.71, the 2nd best K/9 ratio, 11th best K/BB, 10th best tRA, 7th best WPA, and the 4th best WAR. He has turned himself into maybe the rarest thing in baseball... a true, shutdown ace. Now, as fans, all we can do is sit back and enjoy the pleasure that is watching him pitch. The scary thing? He's only 26 and has another decade of terrorizing hitters left in him. Good luck, American League hitters.

Know the enemy: Vicente Padilla

Vicente Padilla has the Swine flu and is pitching tonight. Obviously, it must not be an extreme case or else he would not be pitching. So, I wish him well with his health and on to the breakdown of his pitching performances this season...

Padilla is a 6'2" 220 pound right handed pitcher whose play has been fairly consistent since 2003. The 32 year old has had an FIP between 4.25 and 5.25 in every single season. This season has been no exception. He has a 4.67 ERA that is very representative of his abilities and a 4.48 FIP. Like Tommy Hunter last night, Padilla should not strike us out too much. Whether or not that will be the case remains to be seen. He has a K/9 ratio of just 4.86. His K/BB ratio of 1.33 leaves much to be desired. Based on the ERA, FIP and other peripheral numbers for the majority of his career and in this season, Padilla is essentially a #4 starter.

Padilla is a groundball pitcher with a 1.58 GB/FB ratio. He is also almost exclusively a fastball pitcher. He throws his 91-92 MPH fastball nearly 75% of the time. After that pitch, he throws a mixture of a slider and a curveball. As you might expect, his fastball is a plus pitch for him. Like Hunter, and as mentioned above, Padilla pitches to a lot of contact. Inside the strike zone, an opposing batter will make contact with his pitch nearly 92 % of the time. That is roughly 3% above league average. So, we should be putting the bat on the ball quite a bit tonight.

As for what to expect tonight...Padilla has traditional splits. Right handed batters only hit for an OPS of .601 against him. On the other hand, lefties hit for an OPS of .883 against him. Guillen, Grandy and Thomas should all be in the lineup tonight. Ramon Santiago is a plus fastball hitter and is also a lefty so he may see a spot in the lineup ahead of Adam Everett tonight. Also, in his last 7 starts, Padilla has gone at least 5 innings. However, he is prone to some bad outings. Two of his last 3 starts has seen him rocked for 5 ER. So, we may be catching him at the right time. B/c he is an extreme fastball pitcher, Miguel Cabrera should have a very favorable matchup. Brandon Inge, Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago are also plus fastball hitters, and Marcus Thames especially feasts on groundball pitchers. Overall, Padilla does not match up well with our offense. I hate to predict an offensive explosion tonight for us but the numbers indicate that that could be the case.

Tigers offense follows its leader into the ground against Rangers

The Tigers lost tonight 5-2 to the Texas Rangers in the opening game of this 3 game series. Thoughts on the game follow...

• In my pre game post, I should have made special note of the fact that we are an even worse offense on the road than we are at home. I correctly pointed out that Grandy should have a big night (a HR and two other singles) and he did. But, other stats are screaming at me right in the face and really cannot be ignored much longer. As a team, we have an OPS+ of 92 on the road (average is 100). At home, we have an OPS+ of 106. I guess I can take solace in the fact that we have more home games remaining than road games, but at some point our offense needs to kick it in high gear. Yes, even on the road.
• Perhaps the one player who most personifies our troubles on the road is Miguel Cabrera. At home, Miggy rakes to the tune of a 1.147 OPS. On the road, he has an OPS of .766. Now, Comerica Park has turned into a bit of a hitters park, but that should not explain such a dramatic drop off for him on the road. Tonight, with the bases loaded and 2 outs in the 5th inning, Cabrera had another chance to deliver on the road. Instead, he swung at ball 4 twice and eventually struck out on a high fastball that should have made the score 2-0. After that AB, the game changed, the Texas hitters started teeing off on Galaragga and that was all she wrote. Obviously, the usual caveats apply. One cannot expect a player to deliver in every situation and it is important to not make too much of one at bat. However, at some point, Cabrera needs to stop being cut slack. In addition to his poor numbers on the road, he bats worse with runners on and with runners in scoring position then he does in other situations. Lee at Tigers Tales also wrote a great post the other day that summed up Cabrera's "clutch" numbers. In short, they are the worst on the team with a "clutch" rating of -1.36. He needs to pick it up. Plain and simple.
• This will go down as one of our worst offensive performances of the year. Hunter came into the game with a lower K/9 ratio then the one Rick Porcello has posted this year. No matter. He still struck us out 6 times in 7 innings. His stuff was minimal at best and he even allowed Maggs to turn on a fastball for a double. Jim Leyland was not quick to salute him in the postgame show on FSN and this was not a game where one tips their cap to the opposing pitcher. Last night against Richard we were a little unlucky. I'm not sure what you call our performance tonight.
• Galaragga went 7 innings, allowed 7 baserunners and 4 ER. He threw 61 strikes on 100 pitches and threw first pitch strikes to half of the 28 batters he faced. I felt that the Rangers hitters bailed him out several times in the first couple innings when they should have been more patient at the plate. Then, once they settled down, Galaragga came unglued in the 6th inning. Basically, it comes down to this for Armando: he is a #5 starter and an average one at that. He is durable, eats innings and gives us a reasonable chance to win. There is value in that, but we might need more than that with Porcello's recent struggles.
• Ryan Perry was hit hard tonight for his first bad outing since he came back from Toledo. I won't read too much into that.. A couple more outings like that, though...
  
• White Sox lost so we are still up by 2 games. Twins are now just down by 3 games.
  

It it Vincente Padilla against Luke French tomorrow night. Padilla has the Swine Flu and Texas kills finesse pitchers like French. That should make for an entertaining game.

The book on Tommy Hunter

The Tigers are squaring off against Tommy Hunter tonight in Texas. Lets take a look at him in this preview post...

Hunter is a 6'3," 255 lb right hander who is technically a rookie (though, he did pitch some last season in Texas). In 5 starts this season, Hunter has a 2.17 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.21 tRA. So, on the surface, it appears that his ERA should climb much higher as the season progresses. His other peripheral numbers also suggest that his 2.17 ERA is a fluke. He has a LOB % rate of 87% and a BABIP of .256. His K/9 ratio of 4.66 is Rick Porcello-like. He has had decent command this season and throughout his minor league career so his BB/9 ratio of 3.10 is probably a little high for him. But, the book on him remains the same... he won't strike out many and he should not walk that many. A "here it is, hit it" type of pitcher.

Hunter is a flyball pitcher with a 0.74 GB/FB ratio. His HR/FB% of just 4.2% is due to increase at some point this season. Still, he does not allow many HR's as his 0.62 HR/9 ratio would suggest. Throughout his minor league career, he always had good HR/9 ratios.

Despite his big frame, Hunter does not feature electric stuff. He comes at the hitters with a 89 MPH fastball and cutter and a 78 MPH curveball that is his best pitch. He does throw his 4th pitch, the changeup, about 9 % of the time, so Hunter does incorporate all 4 of his pitches into his starts.

As you might expect by looking at his ERA, Hunter has been solid lately. In his last 4 starts, he has not allowed more than 2 runs in any start, and only 1 HR. He also has pitched until at least the 6th inning in all but one of those starts. He has never faced the Tigers, so it is hard to predict what will happen tonight. Hunter does have traditional splits as lefties hit him for an OPS of .749 and right handed batters only hit for a .544 OPS against him. So, we should see Grandy and Thomas in the lineup tonight. We also have a mixed bag of stats about how we should perform against him. On the one hand, we have below average OPS+ against right handed pitching and an OPS+ of just 86 against finesse pitchers like Hunter. On the other hand, we do our best against pitchers we see for the first time with an OPS+ of 105 and we hit flyball pitchers like Hunter like an above average offense, as well. Brandon Inge, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Raburn are our best combined hitters against flyball and finesse pitchers. Curtis Granderson also does well against flyball pitchers and has a good matchup with Hunter as a lefty, so he may be one to watch tonight.

Previewing the Texas Rangers

The story the past couple of years about the Texas Rangers is that they are usually a great offensive team with next to nothing in the pitching department. This season, b/c of injuries and some unexpected slumps for some players, the Rangers are roughly an average offense in the AL. As usual, the pitching staff has been below average. Somehow, they have managed to post a 54-42 record and are just 3.5 games back of the Angels in their division. Lets break it all down...

Offense

- The Rangers rank 8th in the AL in wOBA, OPS and runs created. Digging deeper into the numbers, we are able to get a better grasp of the type of offense they are. Essentially, they are free swingers who can mash. The Rangers are 2nd to the Yankees in slugging percentage, and tied for first with the Yankees in ISO at .194. On the other hand, the Rangers rank last in BB/K and 3rd to last in OBP. So, they are not that patient at the plate but they make up for that with a power that is nearly unmatched in MLB. Lately, though, the Rangers have not shown the promise that one might expect with that lineup. Their OPS+ in June was only 84, and their OPS+ in July is currently at 96. Both are below average and well below what they posted in May and April. It is also interesting to note that their OPS+ goes down below average between the 7th and 9th inning.

As far as the splits go, the Rangers have a higher OPS+ against right handed pitching. They also absolutely mash finesse pitching (the Yankees are the exact opposite) to the tune of a 136 OPS+. They are only league average against power pitchers so that does set up well for Justin Verlander. Luke French, though, might be in some trouble tonight.

3B Michael Young, RF Nelson Cruz and 2B Ian Kinsler are all above average hitters at their position. CF Josh Hamilton would be as well but he has struggled mightily with injuries this year. They are receiving well below average offensive production from 1B (Blalock and Davis), and below average production from catcher (Saltamacchia) and SS (Elvis Andrus).

Bullpen

-I will break down the 3 starting pitchers they have going in this series in a separate post, so I will just focus on their bullpen in this installment. Based on the numbers, the Rangers have an average bullpen. They rank 9th in the AL in FIP, 10th in K/BB and 7th in HR/9. One thing going in their favor is ranking first in WPA (win probability added) at 6.19. As a reference point, the Red Sox rank second in that stat.

A big reason for that WPA stat is b/c of their closer, Frank Francisco. He has a 3.60 FIP, 3.23 tRA, and a 4.00 K/BB ratio this season. On the other hand, his month of July has been awful. He is sporting a 7.26 FIP this month and a 5.40 BB/9 ratio. Also in their bullpen, Darren O'Day and C.J. Wilson have been two of the best relievers in the AL. O'Day is a 27 year old right handed pitcher who is built at 6'4, 225. He came over from the Mets this season and has posted a 1.75 ERA, 3.89 K/BB ratio, 0.75 HR/9, 3.28 FIP and 3.39 tRA in 41 appearances. It does not get much better than that for a middle reliever. Meanwhile, C.J. Wilson is also one of the best lefty relievers in the game. In 43 appearances, he has a 2.86 ERA, 2.22 K/BB, 0.61 HR/9, 3.56 FIP and a 3.52 tRA. Again, that is some good stuff. They will be difficult to get to late in a game so it would behoove the Tigers to get up on the Rangers early. Other bullpen arms for the Rangers include the veterans Jason Jennings, Eddie Guardado and our old pal, Jason Grilli. All 3 have been inconsistent this year. Grilli and Guardado have not allowed an ER yet this month, though.

Defense

-Overall, the Rangers have a very good defense and that has probably been one of the main reasons why they have a very good record despite an average offense, slightly below average bullpen and a starting rotation that scares no one. They currently are 4th in the AL in UZR at 22.4 (the Tigers are 3rd). In the infield, they have 3 plus defenders in 1B Hank Blalock, 2B Ian Kinsler and SS Elvis Andrus (he could be the winner of multiple Gold Gloves in his career). On the other hand, Michael Young is arguably the worst defender at 3B in the AL with a -10.5 UZR. The ageless Omar Vizquel, my generations version of Ozzie Smith, is still providing sick defense as one of the best backup infielders in baseball. In the outfield, Nelson Cruz might win a Gold Glove in RF and Josh Hamilton has produced a nice defensive season when healthy. The platoon they have in LF with David Murphy and Marlon Byrd has been below average this season. Saltamacchia is a roughly average catcher defensively and throws out runners at 23.6 % (Laird throws out runners at a 42% clip).

Summary:

• They have one of the best power offenses in baseball who feasts on finesse pitchers.
• Their offense is not that patient and should strike out a lot without taking too many walks.
• C.J. Wilson and Darren O'Day have been two of the best middle relievers in the AL and Frank Francisco has been a good closer this season despite a very bad July.
• Jason Grilli pitches for them
• They have a very good defense with plus defenders at 5 positions.
  

Porcello struggles again in loss to Chi Sox

In the beginning of the season, Porcello was pitching over his head. His BABIP was well below normal and his FIP was well above his ERA. He was due for a heavy fall and that has come. Now, he has been incredibly unlucky in his last 4 starts as most of his flyballs are going for HR's and his BABIP has been very high the last 4 starts. Eventually, his luck in the beginning of the year and his bad luck recently will regress to the mean.

With that said, his peripheral numbers suggest he is basically a #5 starter. Going into tonight (and this number is higher now), Procello had a 5.14 FIP. That is good for 139th in MLB among starters with at least 50 IP. Essentially, that is an average total for a #5 starter (150 starters in MLB and that number would fall slightly below the median of 121-150.) Considering we are counting on him to be our #3 (and that is the organizations fault; not his), that is not good enough. Also, Armando Galaragga, our #4 starter, has a FIP of 5.26. That is 144th among MLB starters. Our back of the rotation has been a concern all year and it will probably continue to be so the rest of this season. Are there some positive signs? Yes. Galaragga has been better in his last 5 starts and Luke French has a FIP below 4 in his first 4 starts. As mentioned above, Porcello will not continue to be this unlucky. But, we have a less stable back of the rotation than the White Sox and Twins have and that might put us at a disadvantage going forward. Ideally, another starter would be added to be our #3 starter. Jarrod Washburn would be ideal but he might be too expensive to get. Jon Garland and Zack Duke could be other options.

Offensively, we were a bit unlucky tonight. Thames crushed two balls that were eventually caught and a large number of our hits were going directly at the Sox position players. But, we were probably due for a night like that after we were the beneficiary of several lucky bounces in the first 3 games of this series. 8 innings and only 1 ER for Richard sounds like a dominating performance. But, it was not one. He only struck out 3 and had 11 fly ball outs. I'm not going to knock the kid. He has decent stuff, a real nice build and will be a dependable back of the rotation starter (at worst) for the Sox for a long time. But, it is important to not overreact to this. Nights like this one happen quite a bit to a baseball team's offense.

As I mentioned in my last game recap post, though, Ryan Raburn's playing time has got to be hanging on a string. He made 2 errors on one play in the 6th inning and basically ended our chances of a comeback with a killer double play late in the game when Richard appeared to be on the ropes. We need a new LF and I am confident that Dombrowski will acquire some sort of upgrade over Raburn.

So, where does this leave us? Well, we took the series from the Sox and are now 2 games up on them and 4 up on the Twins. Those two rivals will square off next and we will take on Texas. It is Galaragga vs. Tommy Hunter tomorrow night at Texas.

Two young kids going tonight for Sox and Tigers in prime time

Well, well, well. ESPN is jumping on the bandwagon tonight and showcasing the Tigers and White Sox battle tonight. It should be an interesting battle between the two young starters tonight in Rick Porcello and Clayton Richard.

Clayton Richard is on the verge of losing his spot in the starting rotation to Bartolo Colon. Tonight he is receiving a spot start tonight in place of John Danks. Richard has a 5.00 ERA, and that is fairly representative of his play. He has a 4.51 FIP,a BABIP of .323, and a LOB % of 69.0. Technically, that would mean that his ERA will drop. However, the Tigers are not facing an elite pitcher tonight. As of today, Richard is what he is: a bottom of the rotation starter or an arm out of the bullpen. His 1.53 WHIP, .280 opponent batting average and 1.11 HR/9 ratio are all below average for a typical big league starter. His K/BB ratio of 1.80 is also below average. And, his tRA of 4.96 also shows his true ability this season. This is a pitcher the Tigers could light up.

Richard is a ground ball pitcher with a GB/FB ratio of 1.41. He is almost exclusively a 3 pitch pitcher with a fastball, changeup and slider. He features a 91 MPH fastball with good sink to it. However, according to Fangraphs, Richard does not feature one plus pitch.

Richard is coming off his best start of the year when he went 8 strong innings and allowed only 1 ER against the Rays. However, for the most part, he has been disappointing lately. Other than that start, he has not lasted longer than 6 innings in any start and has an ERA over 6 since the start of June.

As for what we should expect to see tonight... Richard has natural splits with righties hitting better off him than lefties. B/c of that we should see a right handed heavy lineup. Maggs, Thames and Everett should all be back in the starting lineup tonight. The Tigers batters, overall, have done well against Richard. In his last start against us, he allowed 10 baserunners in 4.2 IP and 3 ER. It is a small sample size, but Ordonez, Inge and Everett have an OPS over 1.000 against him.

Rick Porcello is going for us tonight after 3 straight rough starts. Despite the rumors on the radio, Porcell0's velocity has not dropped but the bite on some of his pitches have. Porcello has a 4.40 ERA that is beginning to reflect how he has pitched the majority of this season. Rick has a 5.14 FIP and his WHIP, opponent batting average, HR/9 and K/BB ratio all come out below league average. However, it should be noted that Porcello has been getting a little unlucky in recent starts as a HR/FB % of 18.1 is not likely to continue. In fact, his xFIP of 4.43 would suggest that we could start to see a leveling out of his ERA.

Porcello continues to be a good grounball pitcher with a GB/FB ratio of above 2, and his sinker remains a plus pitch. His splits are traditional as lefties hit better off him than right handed batters. So, Jim Thome will be one guy tonight that he will especially have to be careful with.

As for what to expect tonight... well, Porcello has never faced the White Sox. He has allowed at least 9 baserunners and 4 ER in each of his last 3 starts (none of which lasted longer than 5 innings). However, there are some numbers to suggest that he might be getting a bit unlucky with some of those batted balls in play. Could tonight be a night where he turns in a good start against a team trying to avoid a sweep? Lets hope so.

Tigers take a series (already) against White Sox

In a pivotal series (if there is such a thing in July), the Tigers have bounced back a bit in this series with a rejuvenated offense and a pitching staff and defense that continues to impress. Some quick bullet points...

• Guillen's impact has been felt immediately. A home run in his second game back, working the count in nearly every one of his at bats, and the game winning hit today is certainly a welcome site to Leyland. I had mentioned previously that we would have a nice platoon at the DH spot with him batting against right handed pitching and Thames continuing to rake against lefties. So far, my hope has been answered.
• Guillen's resurgence leaves us with one spot in our everyday lineup that I do not feel comfortable with: LF. Some guys in the lineup struggle offensively but make up for that by excelling defensively (Laird, Everett, Polanco). Three regulars were All Stars and are not going anywhere (Grandy, Cabrera and Inge). And, we now have two platoons with our rotation at DH and RF that have worked well, thus far. That leaves us with Raburn and the current state of LF. In 19 PA's since the All Star break, he has 2 hits and 1 BB. He also was the victim of a defensive gaffe and a baserunning error in today's game and appears completely overmatched at the plate. Going forward, it may be a bit too much to expect a career bench player to be an everyday left fielder during the stretch run. I also am not keen on the idea of Thames or Guillen seeing time out there (and Guillen probably has no choice in that matter). Finding an upgrade in LF before the deadline is undoubtedly at the top of Dombrowski's wish list.
• What else can one say about the starting pitching since the All Star break? Verlander continues to shut up the critics this year and now ranks in the top 10 of virtually every advanced pitching statistic. Jackson, meanwhile, continues to rank up there with Jon Lester and Matt Cain as the premiere #2 starters in the game. He did not have his best stuff today but somehow battled through it and posted his 7th straight quality start. He has not allowed more than 3 runs in a start since May 4th. Unreal. Eddie Bonine also deserves credit. Only 3 runs in a spot start against a division rival? We really could not have asked for more.
• The relief pitching, likewise, has been stellar in this series. Ryan Perry continues to impress after his stint in Toledo, Rodney was nails the past two games, and Seay, Lyon and Ni all have done their job this series. The bullpen is really starting to round into form. So is the starting rotation. The defense continues to impress. As I continue to suggest, that combination will keep us in contention until the end.

-It is Porcello vs. Richard tomorrow night on prime time. We rocked Richard in our last meeting with him and this is a very important start for Porcello as he looks to bounce back from 3 straight rough starts.

Per Jason Beck's Twitter... Guillen recalled, Josh Anderson DFA'd

In other words, this could spell the end of Josh Anderson as a part of the Detroit organization. We needed to see what Guillen might be able to provide us before the trade deadline so the fact that he is being called up after just a couple of games in Toledo is not that surprising.

Ho hum, Tigers lose 2-1.... again

For the fourth time this week, we lost 2-1. By now, I think I got these games all figured out...

• Good pitching performance by our starter? Check. French struck out a career high 6 batters and was very good until he started to get hit around in the 6th inning. As always, he threw strikes, got ahead of the hitters, etc. His spot in the rotation is secure for the time being.
• Good work from the bullpen? Check. Ryan Perry struggled a little bit with his command in the 6th and 7th innings. Then, he was nails in the 8th. A great outing for him after that brief stint in Toledo. An electric arm that can throw strikes is an incredibly dangerous weapon. If/when Zumaya gets back healthy and throwing strikes again... man, we could really have something here. Until then, though, it has been frustrating to watch talented arms like Perry and Zumaya struggle with their command. Hopefully, this is the sign that Perry is turning things around.
• Threaten in the first inning before leaving a couple guys on base? Check.
• A miserable effort offensively filled with lazy fly balls and weak ground outs? Check.

Oh well. We are tied for first in our division on July 24th. If you would have offered me that before the season, I would have taken it. Leyland, Dombrowski, etc. would have taken it too. Up next is a big 4 game series tomorrow. Verlander and Jackson are going in this series and we are missing the White Sox ace in Mark "Prefect Game" Buehrle. Our offense will eventually wake up. As long as our pitching and defense maintain its success, we will be ok in the long run.

Game 93 preview: Tigers look to take series against Mariners

After a tough loss last night, the Tigers are getting back to work this afternoon against Jarrod Washburn and the Seattle Mariners.

Washburn has always been a guy I have enjoyed watching pitch and is the sort of pitcher that I hoped Nate Robertson would develop into. This season he has a 2.87 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in what appears to be a career season for him. Historically, he has had only one season where he had a FIP below 4 and is basically an ideal back of the rotation starter. He is a lefty, eats a lot of innings and is dependable for a 4.5 ERA or so. His peripheral numbers this year, at 34 years of age, is some of the best of his career. However, they do suggest that he should be due for a fall in the second half of this season. Washburn has a 3.77 FIP (nearly a run higher than his ERA), a low BABIP of .259 and a high LOB % of 78.2. If those numbers revert back to his career averages then his ERA should rise roughly a run in the second half of this season.

As usual, Washburn does not strike out many and does not walk many batters. His K/BB ratio of 2.12 is respectable. His GB/FB ratio of 0.93 suggests that we may see a little more flyballs today. For his career, he has a 0.81 GB/FB ratio. What type of pitches does he do to induce both flyballs and groundballs? According to Fan Graphs, he is the rare pitcher who actually incorporates 5 pitches. He throws his 88 to 89 MPH fastball nearly 60% of the time, and then mixes in a slider, cutter, changeup and curveball. His fastball, slider and curveball have been his best pitches this season and they have been the majority of his career.

As of late, Washburn has been great. He has a 1.82 ERA in July and a 2.81 ERA in June. In his last 10 starts, he has gone at least 6 innings in every start and has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 8 of those starts.

As for what to expect today, we should see a right handed heavy lineup. Right handed batters have an OPS nearly .200 above what left handed batters do against him. Inge and Thames, in particular, have been great against Washburn. They each have an OPS above 1.000 against in over 15 at bats.

Luke French is going for us today. Thus far, he has been a provided some nice stability in the back of our rotation. In his 3 starts, he has a 2.25 ERA in 16 IP. He has allowed 17 hits and 6 BB while striking out 8 batters. Thus far, he has been almost exclusively a flyball pitcher. He has 43 flyball outs compared to 14 groundball outs.

While his ERA looks good, it is a small sample size and his peripheral numbers have not looked that promising. His FIP is 4.68 and his LOB % is above 90. Needless to say, his ERA should go up substantially based on those numbers alone. However, if/when it does, that is ok. We just need French to solidify that #5 spot in our rotation and give us 6 or so innings while keeping the ER to 3 or below in each start.

Like Washburn, French is a soft tossing lefty. His fastball averages 87-88 MPH, and he has been a 3 pitch pitcher this season with a fastball, a plus slider and a 75-76 MPH changeup.

As for today, Seattle has never seen him so the batters are unfamiliar with him in live action. Right handed batters hit for an OPS of .805 against French, and lefties hit for an OPS of .499. B/c of that, Seattle should field their best right handed hitting lineup. If anything, this matchup may bode well for French. Seattle's two best hitters (Branyan and Ichiro) are both left handed. If he can keep those splits against lefties up, he could minimize the potential damage that guys like Branyan, Ichiro, Griffey Jr. and Hanahan might provide.

Provided that the rain does not come, game time is at 1:05. Early word is that Inge is going to play. I would expect Laird to sit today in favor of Dusty Ryan.

Sometimes life happens and tonight, baseball happened

Over the course of a 162 game season a lot of wins and a lot of losses occur. Some are beyond frustrating and painful (like the game Zumaya blew against the Yankees). Some wins stand out more so than others (like the win over the Twins in extra, extra innings). On the other hand, a lot of games blend together and are forgotten. In a way, I compare it to dating. Some dates stand out as being great. Others stand out because either the girl broke up with you or you broke up with the girlfriend. On the other hand, the 17th date I went on with a girl I dated in high school is not something I will remember. Over time, dates like that blend together. For me, the Tigers game tonight was one of those games.

Why is that exactly? Am I just numb to what is developing into a full-blown below average offense? I don't think so. Felix Hernandez is one of top 10 pitchers in MLB, and Seattle's bullpen tonight featured some nasty, nasty stuff. Sometimes, the opposing pitchers are just better. Tonight was one of those nights. Am I just accepting the fact that this is not a championship contending club? No. Our offense this year is very similar to the offense we featured in 2006 that was good enough to reach the World Series. OBP is the exact same at .329, and wRAA is the exact same at 5. Our wOBA this year is .330 compared to .332 in 2006. Our OPS is .752 this year, and it was .777 in 2006. If it was good enough then...

Ok. So, our offense compares to 2006. And, we know our defense does after putting together another great performance tonight. (Just for a reference point: we are 3rd in the AL in UZR this year and we were second in UZR in 2006). How about our pitching? Well, in 2006 we had a FIP of 4.32. This year, we have a FIP of 4.39. The one thing that is holding our overall pitching staff back in comparison to that year is a dependable starting pitching staff. That year we had a top 4 as good as any in the game. This year we have a top 2 as good as any in the game, but Porcello, Galaragga and a mixture of pitchers we have thrown in the #5 slot have been very up and down (although, I do like Luke French). Hence, in order to continue to resemble that 2006 team, we need Galaragga and one of Porcello or French or some other unknown pitcher to step up. For 5 straight outings now, Armando has done that. Tonight he was not perfect and was a little lucky. He walked 4 batters, only struck out 3 and had 12 flyball outs. Defying baseball odds he ended with just 1 hit. And, Seattle is a terrible offense. Still, though, Armando did his job and is quietly turning into exactly what we need: a dependable back of the rotation starter who can eat innings and give us a chance to win. To me, that development far outweighs the loss tonight.

Going forward, we probably need another bat. Guillen might be that guy. Our bullpen is rounding into form with Lyon, Seay and Ni earning more time and Rodney providing stability as the closer. We also may have found a dependable pitcher in Armando Galaragga. If Porcello or French can handle the pressure of the second half as rookies and become our 4th dependable pitcher, then I like our chances.

Game 92 preview: King Feliz takes on Tigers offense

After tearing up Garrett Olson last night, the Tigers welcome Felix Hernandez into Comerica Park. Good luck with that? Well, lets look at the numbers...

King Felix has been a top 10 pitcher in MLB this season. He has a 2.51 ERA (5th in MLB) and the peripheral numbers that suggest that this season has been no fluke. He also sports a 2.83 FIP (7th in MLB) and a near-average BABIP of 2.96. Similarly, his 1.12 WHIP (9th in MLB) and 0.54 HR/9 (9th in MLB) ratio is exceptional. He also strikes out batters at nearly a batter an inning, and has a K/BB ratio of 3.49 (15th in MLB). To top it off, he has a WAR of 4.2 (7th in MLB). Notice a trend here? The guy is top 15 in every stat. He is a lethal pitcher that is on the same level as Greinke, Halladay and Verlander, etc. Just as a fan of the game, tonight should be fun watching this guy pitch.

Hernandez has a GB/FB ratio at 1.60, which is actually the lowest of his career. So, he is a guy who can induce a lot of groundouts and can get the strikeout. Nothing better than that. He also sports 4 plus pitches according to Fan Graphs. His fastball averages between 94-95 MPH and is the 8th best fastball this season. After dropping 95 MPH on a batter, he then can throw a changeup at 89 MPH that is also one of the top 10 changeups in the game. A plus slider and slightly above average curveball round out his pitchers.

He sports traditional splits as lefties hit him better than right handers would. Still, lefties only have an OPS of .665 against him. This guy is dynamite regardless who is coming to the plate. That is especially true in his last 10 starts. 9 of those 10 starts lasted at least 7 innings (and in the one that didn't he threw 6.2 innings) and he has a 1.314 ERA during this stretch. So, we are not exactly catching him at a good time. Additionally, he has an ERA of 1.97 on the road.

We have 7 batters on our team with at least 10 AB's against Hernandez. Granderson, Polanco and Laird each have an OPS of at least .800 against him. Grandy, in particular, has been great against Hernandez. He has a stat line of .444/.444/ .667 against the King. That is not particularly surprising as Laird and Grandy are two of our best changeup hitters. Look out for Ryan Raburn, as well (assuming he plays). He is a plus fastball and changeup pitcher. He might get a lucky shot off Hernandez tonight.

Going for the Tigers tonight is Armando Galaragga. His last 4 starts are "good enough" starts for a bottom of the rotation starter. He has gone no fewer than 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 runs. Tonight, more of the same is needed. We need him to eat some innings and keep the ER down to roughly 3-4 runs. Armando has really started to use his changeup a lot more recently, but still is overwhelmingly a fastball-slider pitcher. According to Fan Graphs, his slider and changup have both been plus pitches. His fastball, on the other hand, has been disastorous with a pitch type value of -18.5. His K/BB ratio of 1.51 is still too low, and his FIP of 5.36 leaves much to be desired.

On the plus side, I guess, is that Galaragga is relatively new to Seattle. Only one batter (Franklin Gutierrez) has more than 3 AB's against him. And, he's not playing tonight. Lefties rake Galaragga to a tune of a .944 OPS, so we should see a heavy lefty lineup for Seattle tonight. Specifically, Russell Branyan, a lefty, is one to watch because he is a plus, plus fastball hitter. So too is Ichiro.

All in all, this is why I love baseball. On paper, Hernandez should take care of us tonight. He has been lethal his last 10 starts, has some of the best natural stuff in baseball, our offense has been anemic, and we have a guy who is basically a #5 starter going for us. But, the games are not played on paper and random events happen. Lets make one happen tonight.

In a "moneyball" move, the Lions trade Ronald Curry for Orien Harris

The Lions new coach, Jim Schwartz, is the NFL's version of Billy Beane. He is a statistical genius with an economics degree from Georgetown and knows more about the stats on Football Outsiders website then possibly any other coach or front office mind in the NFL. This latest move, and a couple of the previous moves made by the Mayhew/Schwartz tag team, provides evidence for this.

So, lets break down this Ronald Curry for Orien Harris deal.

• Statistically speaking, Curry was the 5th worst WR in the NFL last year among receivers with 10-49 catches, and was a negative contributor to the Raiders. At the time when we acquired him, we needed bodies at WR. That is no longer the case. Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt were each among the top 60 most productive WR's in the game and are legit #2 and #3 receivers. Just as a reference point, Northcutt was 45th in DYAR( Defense Adjusted Yards above replacement) which was one spot ahead of Terrel Owens and caught passes at a 65% catch rate (Calvin Johnson was at 52% last year). FA signee Bryant Johnson was 53rd in DYAR and ahead of WR's like Jason Avant, Santonio Holmes, Marvin Harrison and Devin Hester (who may be the #1 receiver for Chicago this year). He, like Northcutt, also had a high catch rate of 60% (of the 79 receivers qualified for the stat with at least 50 catches, only 33 had a catch rate of 60% or higher). Additionally, with the draft day selection of do-everything player Derrick Williams and a holdover like John Standeford, Ronald Curry became extremely expendable.
• So, what should an organization do when a player becomes expendable? Trade him for a position player that you lack depth at? Sounds good to me. Schwartz likes big, big bodies in the middle to clog up the ground game. Hence, the reason they signed Grady Jackson. Orien Harris is another big body and we need some of those. In 14 games with the Bengals last year, he started 1 game and registered 14 tackles. He is 26 years old and is a 6'3" 300+ lbs DT who was a big recruit in high school before playing for the Miami Hurricanes. Is he the cure all to our DT problems? Heck no. We are still very, very weak on the D line. Frankly, Grady Jackson, Landon Cohen, Chuck Darby, Andre Fluellen, Orien Harris and may be the worst DT rotation in the game. But, we are better today than we were yesterday, and that is a start. Expect next off season to include a heavy emphasis on DT, OL and in the secondary.