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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Last stand for Ordonez should come against Twins

When you play 162 games in a season, some of them get lost in the shuffle. Today would be one of those games. On a get-away day the Tigers lost 5-1 in a ho hum game against a team going nowhere on the first day of July. This game can be summed up pretty quickly...

  • Pitching against the worst offensive team in the AL, Verlander allowed home runs to two guys (Jack Cust and Jason Giambi) who are barely even borderline MLB hitters.
  • Inge had the day off, Granderson did his usual disappearing act against a lefty, and Cabrera didn't pick up the slack.
  • Ball game.
Ultimately, though, this was not a ho hum game. At some point, this charade with Ordonez has to come to an end. With 184 more plate appearances, we will be on the hook for $33 million over the next two years with a guy who has hands down been one of the five worst RF in the game. Outside of a batting average that puts him in the middle of the pack, lets look at some other numbers and how he compares to other MLB RF.

  1. His wOBA of .308 is the fourth worst among RF
  2. He is only 12th worst in OBP and this will be his best stat. His OBP is .335
  3. He has the second worst slugging percentage at .339
  4. He has the 3rd worst OPS at .673
  5. His isolated power rate of .074 is the worst rate among RF
  6. His wRC (runs created) of 27.7 is fourth worst among RF
  7. His wRAA (runs above average) of -4.5 is fourth worst among RF
  8. He hits the 5th fewest line drives at his position
  9. His WPA (win probability added) of -0.73 is tied for fourth worst among RF
  10. His WAR (wins above replacement player) 0f -0.2 is fifth worst among RF and is perhaps the biggest indictment against him. Essentially, this is saying that he is no better than some random replacement player.
  11. Fielding wise, he has a -2.6 UZR and among right fielders with 40 more starts he has the worst range in the outfield with a RF/9 of 1.5
So, what do we have here? We have a player who can get on base at about an average rate for his position. And, the positives end there. He ranks 5th or worst in nearly every statistical category provided by fangraphs.com, is a negative outfielder and has the worst range of any starting RF in the game.

We all know the inevitable trade or trip to the DL is going to happen. But, he is quickly getting close to his performance-based options and we cannot keep dragging this on much further. Having him and his salary on our roster the next two years is $15 million that we would not be able to use on a free agent, or to help cover for the impending raises given to Verlander, Jackson, Cabrera, Granderson, Guillen, Robertson, Willis, etc.

My stance on it? I would cut him today, during the off day. If not, give him 3 games against Minnesota in a "make or break" performance for him. If he knocks the cover off the ball all weekend, then you keep him for a little longer with the hopes that you may have caught lightening in a bottle (but still not long enough so you would be on the hook for his salary next year). If he doesn't perform and puts together a performance that is becoming all too common since his "mental break" (in his last 14 games, he is hitting .173), then you cut him on July 5th or 6th. The charade has to end.

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