Joe D. trades Afflalo and Sharpe to Denver in a salary cap move

Welcome to the wonderful world that is the NBA salary cap. The Pistons traded Aaron Afflalo and Walter Sharpe to Denver for a future second round pick. Afflalo was a first round pick in 2007 (27th overall) and Sharpe (32nd overall) was a early second round pick that we got in the D.J. White deal. So, in essence, we traded two late first round picks for cap space. Rumors have circulated that we are in talks to acquire Carlos Boozer or Tyson Chandler in a potential trade and/or that we may sign Glen Davis or Dwight Gooden in free agency. The move clears up $1.8 million in salary and what follows is a breakdown of our salary cap situation by Dave Dial...

"With the news that the Detroit Pistons have traded Arron Afflalo and Walter Sharpe to Denver to obtain more cap space this summer, let's look at what the move does for the cap space the Pistons have after the trade.

That chart shows the Pistons have almost $52.9 million in salary, as far as the NBA salary cap rules are concerned. By trading Afflalo and Sharpe the Pistons do not receive the full value of shedding each players contract because there is a rule stating that for each roster slot under 12, a team has to put a minimum salary in that slot.

A roster charge if the team has fewer than 12 players (players under contract, free agents included in team salary, players given offer sheets, and first round draft picks). The roster charge is equal to the rookie minimum salary for each player below 12. The roster charge only applies during the offseason.

The minimum salary for the 2009-2010 season set by the NBA is $457,588. So you have to add that amount to both slots left vacant by Afflalo and Sharpe, since the Piston roster had exactly 12 players before the trade.

There are different numbers associated with Jason Maxiell's contract. Some websites have him listed with a 4-year extension set at $5 million per year, instead of the escalating contract that I have(and that is normally used). Here is what the Pistons cap situation would look like if Maxiell's contract was set at $5 million per year.

So the Pistons committed salary is either $52.9 or $53.5 million, depending on how Maxiell's contract was structured. Which would leave the Pistons with $4.2-$4.8 million of cap space after the trade with Denver. What the Pistons do with that space is not yet known. There are rumors they will attempt to sign Glen (Big Baby) Davis, and there is some speculation that Dumars made the move to initiate a trade of larger proportions."

-All of the cap projections that I have seen have Max's contract at $5 million next season, so I believe that the projected total of $53.528, 793 million is the correct one. With the salary cap set at $57.7 million, we should have $4.2 million in cap space. That should be enough to bring in Glen Davis or Drew Gooden as a free agent acquisition and it also clears up a potential trade for Boozer or Chandler. Joe D. could go a lot of different directions so I am not sure if it is even fair to speculate. Either way, we need help in the front court and if the trade route is the one they may be going, then Max, Brown, Rip and Prince will be on the trading block.

-As for what we will be losing....

• Afflalo appeared in 74 games this season and played in 16.7 minutes a night (16.5 in the playoffs). He was our best 3 point shooter last year (that will probably be Ben Gordon this year) and averaged roughly 5 points a game. More than anything, though, he was a dependable and good defender off the bench at the 2 guard spot. He will probably never be better than a second guard off the bench but he is the type of guy who could fill a role on a championship team (smart bench player who can shoot the 3/stretch the defense and play quality defense). With Gordon, Hamilton and Stuckey, I kind of liked the idea of giving Afflalo a little more minutes this season to help us on the defensive end of the court. Until I see the next move, and there will be a next move, I cannot really comment on this trade. We need frontcourt help, but I do feel as if Afflalo is a guy we will miss this season and in the coming years if we become a championship contender.
• Sharpe was a terrible pick by Dumars. He rarely played in college at UAB, had off court trouble, and did nothing to stand out to warrant a selection when players like Mario Chalmers and Luc Mbah a Moute were available. This was always one of those picks that GM's sometimes make to show how smart they really are or believe that they are. No one had Sharpe on the radar and if Sharpe panned out, how good would that make Joe D. look? On the flip side, this pick tanked and we lost out on a chance to draft a guy like Mario Chalmers who would be a great backup PG, at least (he started every game for Miami last year). I like Joe D. and feel that he is a top 5 GM in the NBA, but this was an awful and inexcusable pick from day 1. This trade just confirms that.
  

Verlander ends first half with a bang in Tigers victory

In a complete mismatch of a pitching matchup, Verlander dominated the Indians hitters and Ohka got clobbered by the Tigers. For once, what should happen in this crazy game of baseball did happen. Verlander went 7 innings and lowered his ERA to 3.38 by not allowing an ER in the game. He allowed 5 hits and 3 BB and struck out 8 batters. Seay, Ni and Miner combined to finish the last two innings. Clete Thomas was a double short of the cycle, Thames went 4 for 4, and Inge hit 2 HR's in prepping for the Home Run Derby tomorrow night. Post game thoughts...

-After a couple of subpar games by Verlander recently (for him), he responded today with a shutdown-type performance. He only threw first pitch strikes to 13 of 28 batters, and he had three particularly stressful innings with 20+ pitches in the 3rd, 4th and 7th innings. However, he had his curveball, slider and fastball all working today and he ended up overcoming those stressful innings. Besides the 8 K's, he induced 3 groundball outs and 10 flyball outs. Ideally, I would like to see Verlander become even more efficient and lasts longer than 7 innings. I still believe that that will eventunally come as a part of his maturation process. He is a special pitcher who has the peripheral numbers (top 5 in FIP and #1 in K/9) that suggest that his second half might be even better than his first half. Other than Greinke and Halladay, it could be argued that he is having as good of a season as any other starting pitcher in the AL.

-A note on Zach Miner's performance. I guess it is human nature to relax during a 10 run lead and not perform as well as one is capable of. With that said, giving up 3 BB with a 10 run lead is unacceptable. If they hit a home run, fine. But, to allow 3 BB in that situation is hard to fathom. I'm sure he got a stern talking to by Leyland after the game. Seay and Ni did not walk anybody, but the bullpen's collective inability to throw strikes on a consistent basis is becoming worrisome.

-Obviously, the three stars of the day on offense were Clete Thomas, Inge and Thames. Thomas and Thames, in particular, could become interesting stories as the year progresses. With Carlos Guillen on his way back to the big leagues within the next couple of weeks, Thames could find himself in a platoon with Guillen and Thomas currently finds himself in a platoon with Ordonez. Thomas needs to continue to provide good defense in right field, and hit right handers well. Since coming back up from Toledo, he has an OPS of 1.000 and is doing his part. With Ordonez a plus .800 OPS hitter against lefties, the Tigers may have found a solution to the Ordonez problem. Thames, likewise, will probably find himself in a platoon in the DH role with Guillen while both will get spot playing time in LF. Thames has absolutely killed lefties this year with an OPS above 1.000 and has struggled somewhat against right handers. Guillen will be able to spell Thames against righties and Thames should continue to get the playing time against lefties. He's earned it.

-With the Twins beating the White Sox, the Tigers head into the All Star break with a 3.5 game lead on the Sox and a 4 game lead on the Twins. It is certainly looking like a 3 team race at this point in time. This break should do a number of Tigers well, as they look to rest up and start the second half strong with a series against the Yankees starting on Friday.

Know Thy enemy: Tomo Ohka

Today, in the final game before the All Star break, the Tigers are throwing out their ace against a pitcher who is a borderline major league starter at best. To put it bluntly, this is a mismatch. Of course, Luke French vs. Zach Grienke was a mismatch and we know how that turned out. Lets examine the matchup in depth.

Verlander is one of the few pitchers in the game in which it does not matter what team he is facing, and he should be expected to excel regardless of any potential mismatches against him. Against Cleveland this year, he has absolutely dominated. Here are the combined numbers for his 2 starts against them this year:

IP ER H SO BB
16 1 4 22 5

Needless to say, that is simply dominant. Historically, Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko and Grady Sizemore all have an OPS above .800 against him. This year, though, that has not really mattered. If anything, the 3.59 ERA he is sporting is misleading and not indicative of how well he has pitched and how well he should pitch as the year goes on. He has a 2.72 FIP that ranks in the top 5 in the game. His K/9 rate of 11.00 is the best in the game. And, he has cut down his walks to just a 2.73 BB/9 rate. His 1.20 WHIP is not at the level of an Edwin Jackson, but is still impressive. His fastball and curveball are both plus pitches and he has a WAR of 4.0 (5th in MLB). His last three starts he has allowed either 3 or 4 ER. Considering his peripherals and his success against the Indians this year, it could be time for Verlander to have another special pitching performance.

Now onto Ohka. He is a 6-1 righty who is 33 years old and a veteran who used to be a reliable starting pitcher. In 3 seasons with Montreal in 2002-2004, he posed ERA's of 3.18, 4.16 and 3.40, respectively. In 2005, he split time between Milwaukee and Washington (Montreal's franchise moved to Washington) and he posted an ERA of 4.04. Then, after 4 good years, the bottom fell out for him. He pitched one more year for Milwaukee before they let him walk as a free agent. He then had tours of duty for the Blue Jays, Cardinals, White Sox and Mariners before signing a contract with Cleveland this year. Up to this point, he has not recaptured the magic he had from 2002-2005.

This season, Ohka has a 6.35 ERA as a starter during his 3 starts. For the year, he has a 6.47 FIP, 1.47 WHIP and a K/BB rate of just 1.11. His HR/9 rate of 2.20 is awful. We can play some long ball with this guy.

Ohka has a 1.07 GB/FB ratio this year and is not nearly the groundball pitcher that he used to be with the Montreal/Washington organization. He only allows line drives about 16.7% of the time, but he has an incredibly high HR/FB ratio of 17.1%. Again, we can hit some home runs off him. He has been a reverse split pitcher this year with righties hitting for an OPS of .966 against him. Lefties have an OPS of .795. The largest difference is that lefties get on base at a much lower rate compared to righties. The slugging percentages are not that much different.

Ohka is a 3 pitch pitcher who relies on his slider slightly more than his fastball. The remainder of the time, he will probably use his cutter (which has been a plus pitch this year according to Fan Graphs). His velocity is nothing to write home about as his fastball only averages 88 MPH.

We only have 5 batters who have ever faced Ohko. One of them (Guillen) is on the DL and the other (Ordonez) will probably sit tomorrow as a part of that platoon. But, Miguel Cabrera has absoultely crushed him. In 30 career at bats, he has 14 hits. Of those, 7 were doubles, one was a triple and one was a HR. He has a .467/.515/.867 stat line against him. Hopefully, Ohka loses some sleep over that tonight.

Based on the numbers, we should expect a right handed heavy line-up tomorrow for this 1:05 start. Dusty Ryan will probably play in place of Laird to give Laird some rest before the All Star break. We should get to Ohka and Verlander should continue his good performance against the Indians. What should happen and what does happen are sometimes two different things though...

Pavano shuts down Tigers bats

The Indians ended their 6 game losing streak against us with a 5-4 win. Carl Pavano pitched 8 strong innings, allowing only 2 ER and 0 BB. Kerry Wood entered the 9th with a 3 run lead and then promptly gave up a 2 run home run to Cabrera. Then, Thames, Thomas and Raburn were set down in order and our comeback attempt was all for naught. Galaragga allowed 4 ER in 6 innings of work and took the loss for the 8th time this season. Ni and Dolsi came in for 3 innings of relief work and allowed 1 ER, 3 hits, 0 BB and 1 SO. Tomorrow, we send Verlander to the mound to try and win this series and ensure at least a 2.5 game lead in the division before heading to the All Star break. Post game thoughts...

-As I mentioned in the preview, Pavano has had really good peripheral numbers this year and has been very unlucky this year. Hence, his ERA looks worse than perhaps it should. He threw first pitch strikes to 25 of the 28 batters he faced and was very efficient having only thrown 101 pitches through 8 innings. He could have come back in the 9th if need be and perhaps he should have. Now, we did waste some chances. The strikeout by Raburn and eventual tag on Thames coming home in the 3rd inning cost us big time. But, this is one of those games where you tip your hat to the opposing pitcher. If anything, Pavano easily could have pitched a shutout with a little better play on the Rabrun ball to center by Sizemore. I wouldn't look too much into this performance. Tomorrow, we should get to Ohko.

-This was a decent performance by Galaragga but I would have hoped for a little more from him. This was a tough matchup for him with several good lefties in the lineup, and sometimes he pitched like he knew that. In the 3rd inning, he walked Martinez and Choo to make the bases loaded instead of attacking the strike zone. Then, Hafner hit a blooper to left field that Raburn just missed hauling in on a "game of inches" type play. The ball squirted free and the Indians took a lead they never relinquished. According to Brooks Baseball, Galaragga nearly evenly split up his pitches tonight. He threw his slider 36 times and his changeup 34 times. His four seam fastball was thrown 28 times. Unfortunately, he had trouble locating the slider and change. Neither pitch was thrown for a strike more than 60% of the time. The bite that his slider had in his last start against the Royals was not there tonight. The 3rd inning, as mentioned above, was his worst inning. He threw only 10 strikes in 24 pitches in that inning. All in all, I still like Galaragga going forward as a #4 or #5 starter. But, starting him in a potential playoff game would scare me. I still would like to see us acquire another starting pitcher before the trade deadline.

-Ni continued to be a strike thrower with a 75% strike percentage. He did get charged with an earned run when Dolsi allowed the inherited runner to score. But, I still like Ni. Going forward, I would like to use him stritcly as a LOOGY when the rosters expand and the stretch run to the postseason continues.

-Dolsi pitched 1.2 IP tonight and allowed his inherited runner to score. He utilized his fastball, change and slider tonight. His fastball averaged roughly 95 MPH. But, as usual, he was wild and a couple of real good balls were hit off him. His ERA looks good in his short stint up here but that is very misleading, imo. Dolsi is probably on a short leash going forward and I do not see a real big role for him in the second half.

-Thomas took a bad route to one ball hit in OF but then also made two textbook defensive plays in RF at other points in the game. He also went 2 for 4 tonight. I like this platoon that Leyland has going with him and Ordonez, and I have liked Thomas's approach at the plate since he has returned from Toledo.

-It was nice to see Cabrera get a HR off Kerry Wood (who has been awful this year). But, he had a couple weak at bats that he normally would not/should not have against Pavano. I think the All Star break will do him good.

-Every series, the goal is to take 2 of 3. We still have the opportunity to do that tomorrow. We have our ace going and they have a terrible pitcher going in Tomo Ohka (sorry to be so blunt). On paper, we should take this game and head into the All Star break on a high note. Lets make that a reality.

Game 86: Galaragga looks to prove he is "back"

After allowing only an earned run in each of his last two starts, Galaragga looks to prove that he is actually a legit option in the back end of the rotation and that his good starts against the A's and Royals had little to do with them being bad teams. Verlander dominating the Royals is one thing. Galaragga doing it leaves one skeptical. That is just the way it is. Today, he goes against a team with guys like Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez and Choo who should match up well with Galaragga. This is a big game for him.

In his last start against the Indians, he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings in a forgettable start. Sizemore and Choo both have an OPS above 1.000 and may need to be pitched around today. As mentioned yesterday, Choo is the best slider hitter on the Indians and that is Galaragga's best pitch. We will see what Armando has tonight.

Carl Pavano is opposing us tonight. He was always a pitcher that interested me, especially after his great 2004 season with the Marlins and his great postseason work in 2003 on their run to the title. Unfortunately, his numerous injuries during his days with the Yankees robbed him of his prime.

This year, he has returned to being at least a respectable back of the rotation starter. He has a 5.36 ERA, but he has peripheral numbers that suggest his ERA should decline as the year goes on. He does allow a .301 batting average against but his FIP of 3.76 comes with a real high BABIP of .344 and a criminally low LOB % of just 61.9%. His K/BB rate of 3.55 is outstanding. In other words, do not just look at his ERA when evaluating his pitching this year.

Pavano is a three pitch pitcher with a fastball, change, and slider. Both his slider and change have been plus pitches this year. Pavano has reverse splits this year with right handers hitting for a better OPS than lefties do against him. Ordonez, Inge and Everett all have an OPS above .800 against him. Obviously because of the platoon, Ordonez will not be getting a chance to improve upon those numbers today. Miguel Cabrera, in particular, matches up very well against Pavano (who doesn't he match up well against?). Could today be the day where he breaks out of his mini slump (2 RBI and an OPS below .700 in his last 12 games)? I say yes.

Lets take the second game of this series.

Site Update... again

My week from hell continued with the passing of a second family member yesterday. Blogging and talking and writing about sports has been a good way to keep my mind off things like this in the past and not breakdown from it, so I might keep posting in the upcoming days. More than likely, though, posting will be sporadic for the next 4 days or so and for obvious reasons. Knock on wood, but I should be back to posting regularly again by next Wednesday (the showing and funeral are not until Monday and Tuesday).

Until then, here are some quick thoughts of mine...

• Where would the Tigers be this year without Edwin Jackson? Dombrowski gets busted on a lot for going crazy on several contract extensions and the trading of Jair Jurrejens for Edgar Renteria. And, he should not be above that criticism. But, kudos to the trade of the baseball season, so far. Without Jackson, the Tigers are in 3rd place in the division and closer to the Indians and Royals than the Twins and White Sox. What a deal it has been so far.
• With Brandon Bass off the market, I guess Joe D. might make a run at Glenn Davis. He would be an upgrade over Maxiell but with both on the roster, doesn't that just make Maxiell a redundant player. They are both (can I say it) overweight frontcourt players who are best served as guys coming off the bench. If Davis truly the target of Joe D. then I have to think that Max and Kwame deal for Tyson Chandler is being discussed.
• Maybe the Jiri Hudler negotiations are not dead afterall? It will be interesting to see how this plays out but if Hudler does not want to play for us and would rather play for the money in Russia, I'm not sure I would want to force him to play on the Wings next season. That has trouble written all over it, if you ask me.
• There has been a lot of concern about Inge in the HR derby. I too am concerned that it may hurt his swing. But, how many people thought Inge would be an All Star? He has almost been traded from the Tigers when Pudge signed with us and when Cabrera was brought over here. And yet, here he is. One of the top 5 3B in the game this season. Will he keep it up. Maybe not. But, I say let him enjoy this once-in-a-lifetime player who was converted to a utility player twice in his Tigers career. Truly one of the most surprising deserving All Stars in the last 10 years. No lie.
• Training camp is less than a month away and the Big Ten Media Luncheon is at the end of July. Mmmm. Football is about to be in the air and I cannot wait.
  

Jackson's dream season continues

• Great game, huh?
• -A great pitching duel between two of the top 15 starters in all of MLB. Jackson had some of his best stuff all year and Lee settled down after the 2nd inning. I was really impressed with a couple of those long at bats by Laird and Polanco during the innings where Lee started to get going a little bit.
• -Laird continues to swing a good stick and have a good approach at the plate. You take away that one bad month (and I know you can't) and he has an OPS that would approach .800. He did have an uncharacteristic passed ball and looked a little sloppy blocking some other balls in the dirt. But, he is due for one of those games every now and again. Overall, he continues to impress me.
• -Nice to see Anderson get the two RBI but his value to this team comes with his speed and defense. But, he continues to make baserunning errors and he needed to take charge in centerfield a little more than he did. When Guillen comes back, somebody is leaving. With the way Raburn and Thames have been swinging it, and with the platoon that Ordonez and Thomas now have going, who looks to be the odd man out? It seems obvious as of today that it is Anderson.
• -Zumaya has the worst luck with injuries. Nothing new, I guess.
• -Seay struggled a little bit but came up huge against Choo and Hafner. BTW, how far has Hafner fallen these last couple of years?
• -Thank goodness for that HR by Thames in the 8th. He is what he is. He will strike out a lot and have a lot of weak at bats. But then, he will also run into one b/c he is so "country strong."
• -Rodney had a shaky 9th but it should be noted that if Inge does not make that throwing error and/or if Cabrera scoops up that throw, then we get out of that inning with just one walk allowed. It is frustrating to watch but he entered the game with the lead and that is how he left it. Good enough for me.
• -How great would a sweep feel before the All Star break?

Game 85: Tigers look to extend winning streak against Indians

After 5 straight wins against the Indians, the Tigers will look to continue the streak tonight with Edwin Jackson heading to the mound. In his previous start against Cleveland, he went 7 strong innings with 0 ER, 7 K's and only six base-runners all game. His 1.07 WHIP is the best in the AL and his 2.59 ERA is good for the 3rd in the AL. His peripheral numbers would suggest a slight increase in ERA as the year progresses, but nothing would suggest a monumental fall. His 3.37 FIP is good and his 2.82 K/BB rate is well above average. The only real concerning thing is a real low BABIP of .260 and a LOB % of 76.5. Still, an ERA between the 3 to 3.5 range is very realistic and who would not have taken that to start the year?

He is still basically a two pitch pitcher with a great fastball and slider that are both plus pitches. Shin Soo-Choo is their best combined fastball-slider hitter so he will be one that Jackson will have to be careful with tonight. And, as usual, Victor Martinez must also be watched carefully. He is a great, great fastball hitter.

Opposing us tonight will be Cliff Lee, the Cy Young Winner last year for the AL. In his last start against us, he engaged in that epic duel with Justin Verlander which saw Verlander throw a complete game shutout and Lee toss 8 innings and only allowing 1 ER. Lee is that kind of pitcher and certainly capable of another performance like that. He has a 3.45 ERA this year with a 1.41 WHIP and a 3.33 FIP. Like usual, he does not strike out a lot of batters (he has a 6.38 K/9 rate) but he does not walk many, either. His BB/9 rate of 2.33 is very good. He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.30 and only has a HR/9 rate of 0.60. So, we should expect quite a few groundballs off the bats tonight.

Lee's two most frequent pitches are his fastball and changeup. According to Fan Graphs, he had a fastball that was 34.2 runs above average last year. That is simply sick. This year he has come back down to Earth a little bit, but it is still at 6.5 runs above average. His fastball comes in an 91-92 MPH on average.

His splits clearly suggest that right handed batters stand a better chance against him than lefties do. RH batters have an .800 OPS against him and lefties only have a .542 OPS.

Lee is coming off a decent start against the A's allowing 3 ER in 6 innings of work. But, it took 112 pitches to just get through that inning and we all know how bad the A's offense is. In addition to that, just a start before that Lee allowed 7 ER in 3 IP against the White Sox. So, maybe the Tigers are catching the ace at a good time?

Ordonez and Inge both have an OPS above .900 against him so they will be two players to especially keep an eye on tonight against Lee. Perhaps the platoon will help take some pressure off Ordonez and hide his deficiencies a little bit by only letting him face lefties? Tonight may be a good night to find out especially with a great pitcher facing off against him.

Hudler signs contract with Dynamo Moscow

Quick update before I have to attend to some things throughout the day...

Hudler has been rumored to have signed a deal with a team in the KHL. Cause for concern? A little bit. But, all this really does is give Hudler more leverage in negotiating. Another team is not going to trade for him now with this coming out and this forces the Wings into a corner in negotiations. Either they pay him or he has another option and could just leave the NHL. If anything, it is a really smart business move from Hudler's perspective and it shows Holland that he is not going to get low balled during contract negotiations. I originally thought that he would sign for under $3 million. With this coming out, I think it is very realistic to think that he becomes one of the few Red Wings who are overpaid and signs for more than $3 million.

Stay tuned on this developing story.

UPDATE: It looks like Hudler is gone. Abdelkader is all but assured to be on our team now and this opens the door for Ritola, Ryan Oulhaen, Evan McGrath and recently acquired Jeremy Williams to have a shot as the #12/13 forward on the team. I would expect Holland to go out and sign another forward. Instead of the Travis Moen-type that I had been coveting, Holland needs to replace some of the offense he has lost. Look out for a Mike Comrie signing if he accepts an offer of $2 million or a little less. He has plenty of skill and his attitude problems could be fixed with Babcock and our veteran leadership. Plus, he has ties to the area having played at Michigan. For a list of other available free agents, Kyle has you covered.

-I was hoping to start posting regularly again tomorrow, but that is probably not possible with funerals and family gatherings to attend. More than likely, posting will be irregular until Monday or Tuesday with just quick and brief posts on various topics. I have not been able to watch much sports recently and won't be able to for a few more days still.

Some bad family news and a site update

Even a blogger has a personal life. haha.

I got some bad family news recently and that is the cause for the lack of blogging the last two days. I'll be up and running again by Thursday, hopefully.

A bit of bad timing especially with the Pistons hiring Kuester, the Tigers recalling Clete Thomas, the Wings signing 3 depth players, the Rip Hamilton-Carlos Boozer rumor, etc. But, life happens.

In the meantime, if anybody has any suggestions about how to make the blog better or what you would like to see more of, then drop me a comment or an email (which can be found in a link in my "About Me" section).

Leino is signed, sealed and delivered

Ville Leino has re-signed with the Wings today for roughly $800,000 a year. I had speculated before that this would be the amount and it makes sense. He actually earned more last year but this contract probably has assurances in it that he will be on the team for the whole year. Last year, he scored 13 points and earned some valuable experience in the NHL finals. He played on the fourth line a lot with Draper and Maltby and I would expect him to see a lot of time on that line to provide a viable scoring punch.

In a lot of ways, his game reminds me of Jiri Hudler. I don't think he will reach what Hudler has done so far in his career, but I could see Leino being a consistent 45-50 point producer on the 3rd and 4th lines with some time on the power play unit. He is not a great skater and I was not terribly impressed with him defensively, but for a 3rd or 4th line player who could play spot minutes on the top 2 lines, this is an outstanding deal and again shows why the Wings have the best front office in hockey.

The article also talks about Hudler filing for arbitration and I know a lot of fans are worried about that because he would command a deal between $3.5 and $4.5 million. Frankly, I am not worried. Maybe I am just blindly loyal to Holland and believe everything that has been said about Hudler loving it as a Wing, but I think a deal gets settled before the arbitration date for roughly $2.5 million a year for 2-3 years. Book it.

Game 82: Tigers look to get back on track against lowly Royals

Armando Galaragga looks to continue to add stability to the back end of the rotation as he goes after his third straight win. His last start against the A's left much to be desired with 6 walks, but he again has a favorable matchup against the Royals offense. Here is what I wrote about Armando before his last start...

More than anything, his slider has lost its bite and opposing hitters are hitting it more. After being a plus, plus pitch last year for him, it has been a negative pitch for him. His changeup has actually improved greatly from last year, and yet, he is throwing that pitch 4 % less than last year and throwing his slider and fastball more than last year. I would like to see him rely more on his changeup and cut back a little with the slider to see if that makes a difference. He did do that last start and his last start was good, outside of the Jake Fox 3-run home run in the first inning. Coincedently, the A's hit the changeup worse than any other team in MLB. I think Galaragga can exploit that tonight and provide a good outing for a #5 starter. 7 IP, 3 ER tonight out of Armando would be outstanding, and I think he can do it.

In that game, he continued to use his changeup upwards to 20% of the time and he seems to feel more comfortable relying on that pitch. Developing that 3rd pitch could be pivotal as he tries to shake off a bad start to the season and solidify himself as a #4 or #5 starter for us. In his last start against the Royals he went 6 strong innings and only allowed 1 ER, and only Billy Butler, Alberto Callapso and Jose Guillen are the players on the Royals with any real success against him. At last word, Guillen was questionable for tonight. This has the makings of another chance for a good start for Galaragga.

Opposing him tonight will be Gil Meche, who's 4-8 record and 4.20 ERA do not display how good of a pitcher he is or could be against us. The last two years he has had an ERA under 4 for the Royals and his FIP and WHIP in both of those years were better than league average. At his best, he is a good #2 starter. The problem for Meche is usually his consistency. In 6 starts this year he has allowed 4 or more runs, and even allowed 9 ER in a game against the Cardinals on June 21st. On the other hand, he has 10 starts with 2 ER allowed or less. So, he could be great against us or bad.

This year he has a 3.73 FIP and a 1.45 WHIP. His K/BB rate of 1.85 is right around league average and his HR/9 rate of 0.64 is very good. More than anything, he has had some bad luck this year. He has a BABIP of .320 and a LOB % of just 68.8%. He can, and probably will, pitch better as the season goes on.

He actually pitches much better on the road with a 2.70 ERA. His splits suggest that right handed batters hit better against him with a .780 OPS compared to lefties hitting for an OPS of .674 against him. But, the difference is not that severe. He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.51 so he has been a groundball pitcher this year more so than ever before. And, he is truly a 4 pitch pitcher as he uses his fastball, slider, curveball and changeup all more than 10% of the time. Accoring to Fan Graphs, his best pitch is his curveball. His fastball, which comes in on average around 02 MPH is also a plus pitch.

In his last start against us, he only last 2.1 IP as he allowed 4 runs, but only 2 ER. He also had 3 walks and 6 hits allowed in that game so the potential is there, as I mentioned earlier, to hit this guy hard tonight. Of course, he also has the stuff to completely shut us down. Miguel Cabrera is 5 for 6 with 2 doubles and 2 HR against him, so it might be a night where we see Cabrera break out of his mini-slump.

-As always, I will be back later for my thoughts on the game.

Game 81: Stagnant offense and Porcello's failures a sign of things to come?

We all saw the game. There is no need for a player-by-player offensive breakdown when there was no offense to speak of until a meaningless home run by Inge (who should be an All Star) in the 9th. Nick Blackburn has been hot lately and we caught him on maybe his best day and our worst day. That is baseball and it sucks, especially because we had a chance to take this series. And, while it is important to not overreact, what fun would it be if we didn't?

-This is what I wrote after Porcello's last start and I feel the same way. The kid needs a rest.

• 
  

-Well, I feared this start was going to come for Porcello. I am by no means suggesting that I expect Porcello to continue to have a 4.1 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 5 ER stat line. But, I do expect his ERA to continue to rise into the 4's, and it is time for Leyland to get him some rest. We have a favorable schedule coming up with some off days and the All Star break worked in, and I think it will be extremely beneficial for the young guy to skip a start or two over this stretch. Considering how he has pitched recently, I think it is the best thing for our team both in the short term and long term. All of his peripheral numbers suggest that he is basically a 4.5 ERA-type pitcher this season. Sit him for a start, let him clear his head and rest that golden arm before the second half of the season, and let's see if he can turn those numbers around into his favor. His month of April was rough, and he turned it around with a 1.50 ERA for the month of May. Similarly, he can turn this poor end in the month of June to a good month of July.

This start did nothing to calm my fears. It is frustrating watching Porcello pitch because he has the talent and "stuff" to dominate but he is only 20. He is probably not ready yet for this workload. That home run he allowed to Morneau directly impacted the rest of that inning. When he is 30, that won't happen. As a 20 year old, it most certainly will. I say skip his next start and let him get rested over the All Star break and hopefully he will return to his month of May form. But, in his given role as the #3 starter, there is not another pitcher that I am more concerned about. It is going to be very interesting to see how he does in the second half of this season as the standings get tighter and the games get bigger.

-What can you say about the offense today? Pathetic is probably a good word. Again, it happens. We need another bat and Dombroski will land one before the trading deadline. Until then, I see no reason why Clete Thomas is not up here in place of Don Kelly or Josh Anderson. It is time for some new blood up here and Thomas brings a superior bat and glove than these two. We cannot keep having "mail-in" games like these and batting Don Kelly at the #4 spot is just ridiculous.

-Other than that, there is not much else to say. I'm concerned about Porcello and have been for awhile. We need another bat and it is time to see what Clete Thomas has got after his stay in Toledo. We are up 2 games in the division at the halfway point of the season and it is basically a three team race between us, Chicago and Minnesota. The last 10 games of this season we will be playing against those teams. Basically, that will define our season. Until then, we need to stay in the race and hopefully build on our lead before that pivotal stretch run.

-First things first, though. It is time to face the Royals in a 3 game series. Take 2 and I'll be happy. Tomorrow night, Galragga gets the party started against Gil Meche.

'Sheed to Boston

And, just like that Rasheed Wallace is a relevant basketball player again. Reports are that Rasheed Wallace has officially ended his stay as a Detroit Piston and will be joining the Boston Celtics next season. Boston is also reportedly interested in Grant Hill, another former Piston great.

What does this mean for Boston? Well, Rasheed is a lot of things, but he is a talented basketball player and his presence coming off the bench could be enough to put them over the top again. The Big 3 became the Big 4 with Rondo's development into a top 5 PG in the NBA. If Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett can turn back the clocks for one more season, I have to think that they have as good a shot as anybody in the East of making it to the finals.

In a sense, this is a sad departure for me. Rasheed was the final piece to the puzzle in that magical 2004 championship run and it is hard not to remember his great play during that sretch run and the swagger that he gave us this year. And yet, Rasheed was maybe the most frustrating player that I have ever watched just as a fan of basketball. His skill set has no limitations and with the right drive and work ethic, he had the natural talent to become not only a very good player but a Hall of Fame player who could take over games and be the best player in the game. Unfortunately, Rasheed never lived up to that talent level and he was perfectly content being the #3 option on our team and going for 13-15 points a night while grabbing 7-8 rebounds. It was always said that the Pistons bucked the trend that year by not having a Hall of Fame talent lead them to the title. I never bought that. Rasheed, if he truly wanted to, could have been that guy. Like Sergei Fedorov, I am afraid that I will remember Rasheed more for what could have been (multiple NBA titles and several All Star appearances) then what was.

Game 81 preview: Tigers look to take series from the Twins

On May 5th, Rick Porcello had his best game as a Tiger going 7 strong innings without allowing a run. His opponent? The lovely Minnesota Twins. A repeat performance would be greatly appreciated, thank you very much. If you haven't read my concerns about Porcello, here is the post I made prior to his last start when he allowed 5 ER in 4.1 IP against the worst offensive team in the AL in the Oakland Athletics. So, I am still concerned about Rick but he has had success against Minnesota in the past and he actually has a lower ERA on the road than he does at Comerica Park. The key for him? Forget the month of June and kick ass in July like he knows he can.

The opposing pitcher today will be Nick Blackburn, the "ace" of the Twins staff so far. He has a 3.10 ERA, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that his ERA will go up by about a run before the season ends. He has a slightly above average FIP and WHIP with a 4.07 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP. The book on Blackburn is that he does not strike people out or walk batters. He has a K/9 rate of 3.77. That is incredibly low. The league average is 6.87. So, if we are swinging and missing tomorrow, it will not be because of anything Blackburn brings. On the plus side for him, he has good control and rarely walks batters. His BB/9 rate of 2.26 is very good. He also does not allow a lot of home runs as his 0.75 HR/9 rate would suggest.

He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.21, so he is a groundball pitcher. He throws his fastball at an average of 90 MPH and uses his fastball roughly 62% of the time. His next two most common pitches are his cutter and curveball. According to Fan Graphs, his only plus pitch is his cutter. But, his other pitches are average and he does not really have a bad pitch that has been giving him trouble this season. His splits suggest that he is a terror against right handed batters and that lefties can have their way with him. Lefties have a .301/.350/.487 stat line against him. Right handed batters hit .231/.268.297 against him. So, needless to say, we should have a couple lefties in the lineup. More than anything, this is a matchup that really favors Curtis Granderson, especially because he hits the cutter better than anyone else on our team. Look for his slump to end today if the numbers hold true.

One not so encouraging sign for us is that his ERA has dropped in each month and he has pitched better as the season has wore on. In his last 10 starts, he has gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 ER.

Oh, but how about that start before the streak began? It was May 5th against the Tigers, and we lit him up for the tune of 6 ER in 3.1 IP. Cabrera, Granderson, Ordonez and Satiago all have 5+ AB against him and an OPS over 1.000. It goes without saying that they should all be in the lineup today.

Let's have a repeat of May 5th and take this series.

Game 80: Sometimes the other guys are just better

Sometimes in professional sports the other team makes the play and wins. And, sometimes, the error of a ref can change things in a hurry. In today's Tigers game, I think we saw a little of both.

-I want to first point out what we all know already. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are really, really good. Like, really good. Mauer only went 1 for 3 but he has a presence at the plate that is undeniable and a sweet swing like few others have in the game. And Morneau went 4 for 4 in a game in which we could not do much about his brilliance. Edwin Jackson threw a good pitch that Morneau crushed for a home run. Later on in the game we brought in Bobby Seay, arguably our best reliever, to face Morneau and just like that the Twins had tied the game with a Morneau single. It happens. Both of those guys are superstars in MLB and one of the top 10-15 position players in the game. Miguel Cabrera can say the same thing about himself but we do not have two hitters like they do and that does give their middle of the order an advantage over ours.

-Over the course of a 162 game season, there is bound to be one game where a call or a non call by an ump alters the course of the game. In the 8th inning today in a tie ballgame, that moment happened to us. With a runner on first, Brandon Lyon threw a perfect breaking ball over the middle of the plate for strike 3 on Morales. Instead, the ump called it ball 2. The very next pitch Morales moved Tolbert into scoring position. Then, Nick Punto came up and continued his great play in this series (don't get me started on that) and drove home the winning run. If the right call is made on the strike, we have a 3-3 game going into the bottom of the ninth and who knows what happens. Oh, well. It happens.

-Jackson was a little erratic today but he again showed All Star form. He technically allowed 3ER in 6.1 IP, but the only runner he left was on first base so it is hard to fault him for that. Cuddyer just barely got his shot over the wall for a home run and Morneau simply put a good swing on the ball. It was hard to fault him for those, and he did manage 9 K's so it was not a completely wasted effort despite the fact that he did not get the win. More than anything, I would have liked to see a more efficient outing by Jackson. He only threw first pitch strikes to 12 of the 29 batters, and it took him 122 pitches to get through 6.1 IP. If he is going to throw that many pitches, it should be enough to get him through at least 8. He needs to work on his control in the next start.

-Seay and Lyon did not do their jobs today but I cannot blame them much. Seay got beat by two of the best left handed hitters in the game, and Lyon would have got out of the 8th inning unscathed if strike 3 was called on Morales. Still, he needs to get Punto out. He may a good defensive player, but Punto is NOT a good offensive player. He should not hit a game winning RBI.

Position player performances

Granderson- Ouch. Completely dominated all game. 3 K's in an 0 for 4 game. Liriano owns Grandy.
Polanco- 0 for 4.
Cabrera- 1 for 4. He's been outshined in this series by Mauer and Morneau.
Thames- 1 for 4. Our top 4 hitters went 2 for 16. We are not going to win many games when that happens.
Raburn- 1 for 3 as he keeps putting some good swings on the ball.
Inge- O for 4 with 3 K's. See comment on Granderson.
Ordonez- His best game of the year? A double in his first at bat, a lazer down the line in his second at bat that was foul, and then a 3 run home run. He has always had good numbers against Liriano and at the Metrodome so it is really not surprising. Kudos to him. Another 10-15 games like this and we might be on to something.
Ryan- O for 2 with a walk. He's only hitting .143 up here and he is capable of more.
Everett- 0 for 2 with a K and a BB. Good defense, as usual.

-If we win tomorrow, then this game is completely forgotten. Can Rick Porcello rise to the challenge? He gets the Twins "ace" tomorrow in Nick Blackburn. It should be a fun one.

Game 80: A day game after a night game for the ages

After a 16 inning classic, the Tigers and Twins square off again today in a "nationally televised" game on Fox. Our bullpen was gassed last night and Zumaya and Dolsi are definitely not available today. Ideally, Edwin Jackson will pitch 7+ strong innings and make sure our bullpen is rested for Rick Porcello on Sunday. We need Jackson to have a good game today.

Jackson's ERA has risen each month (2.25 in April, 2.34 in May and 2.91 in June) so there is some concern entering this start and heading into the second half of the season. But, lets not kid ourselves. Jackson has been remarkable this year and better be an All Star this year. How good has he been? Lefties have an OPS of .542 and right handed batters have an OPS of .675 against him. So, there is really no favorable matchup against him. His 2.49 ERA ranks second in the AL and he has the best WHIP in the league at 1.04. He is currently 9th in innings pitched at 108 innings. Right now, he is on pace to go well over 200 innings so that is something to watch as his workload increases.

Some of his other numbers do suggest that his ERA should rise a little bit as the season wears on. He has a good FIP of 3.18 (11th in MLB) but his BABIP of .258 is very low and might not stay at that rate all year. His K/9 rate of 6.98 is slightly above league average, but he has kept his walks down and his K/BB rate of 2.90 is very good. Even better is his HR/9 rate of 0.58 and his opponent batting average is .216 (4th lowest in MLB).

Jackson is a groundball power pitcher with an electric fastball that averages 94.5 MPH. He is basically a two pitch pitcher with two plus, plus pitches in his fastball and slider. He will sometimes mix in a curve or changeup, as well.

In his last start against the Twins, he allowed 5 ER in 6 innings in a 7-2 loss. Most of that damage came in the 7th inning where Jackson failed to record an out.

Jackson's opposing pitcher in that first battle is also the opposing pitcher against us today in Francisco Liriano. Blessed with a golden arm that showed it in 2006 (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 10.71 K/9) he has since failed to recover that incredible form following surgery that knocked him out for all of 2007.

This year, Liriano is 4-8 with a 5.62 ERA, 4.53 FIP and 1.52 WHIP. His K/9 rate of 8.03 is still good but it is his struggles with his command that continues to ail him. His BB/9 rate of 4.22 is well above league average and his K/BB rate of 1.90 is below league average. He will get some strikeouts against us, but like Gio Gonzalez for Oakland, he will also put us on base with BB if we are patient. Liriano has a HR/9 rate of 1.20, which is below average for a starting pitcher. He does have a BABIP of .322 so some of his struggles could be contributed to bad luck.

He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.10, so we should expect to see more fly balls to come off our bats today. He is a 3 pitch pitcher with a 91.6 MPH fastball and a very good slider that comes in at 86 MPH. His changeup is also considered a plus pitch. More than anything, it has been his struggles with his fastball that have hurt him this year. That pitch is valued as a -18.0 by Fan Graphs. As far as his splits go, Liriano struggles much more against right handed batters than lefties. Right handed batters hit .284/.356/.504 against him compared to .232/.337/.305 against lefties. So, we should expect to see Ordonez and Everett back in the lineup today. Granderson has K'd 10 times against him in his career so that is something to be careful of today for Curtis.

Of late, Liriano has pitched well. He had a 3.77 ERA in June without a bad start sprinkled in there. Interestingly, he forced more groundballs than flyballs in his June starts. His BB/9 rate for that month was still over 4, though. It is clear that he is still struggling with his command even as his stuff appears to be getting back to what it once was.

Cabrera and Inge both match up very well with Liriano (but who doesn't Cabrera match up well with?) They are our two best fastball hitters and are both right handed. Liriano might want to pitch around Cabrera, at the very least. In his last start against us, Cabrera did homer off Liriano but he mostly shut everyone else down by going 7 innings and only allowing 2 ER.

After last night's game, I'm not sure how this one will even come close to matching it. But, another win again against the Twins would still probably feel just as sweet.

So, some things to look out for today...

1. Will the Tigers show patience against Liriano and get BB?
2. Will Liriano continue to pitch as well as he did in June?
3. Can Edwin Jackson give our bullpen a much needed rest by giving us 7 to 8 quality innings?
4. Will Jackson's struggles continue against the Twins?
   
5. Granderson has had a tough time against Liriano in his career and Cabrera and Inge should have a favorable matchup. Will these hold true today?
   

Game 79: Are some games truly more important than others?

I have never believed that there were ever "big" games in a 162 game season. I have never believed that momentum ever truly swung with one game. A baseball season is a marathon like no other professional sports season. There are so many peaks and valleys that it is hard to get too high or too low during any of it. Just look at all of the storylines we have had in 79 games:

• Ordonez, two seasons removed from a run to the MVP award, is on the verge of being released.
• Willis still cannot find the strike zone and is on the DL for probably the rest of the year.
• Edwin Jackson has been one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball a year after being a #5 starter for the Rays.
• Verlander has had a bounce back season to All Star form
• Brandon Inge is having a career season and should make the All Star team
• We have nearly $50 million tied up to players who will make no positive contribution to us this year (Sheff, Robertson, Bondo and Willis) and we are still in the thick of the division race
• Jim Leyland was given a two year extension

And, I could give many, many more story lines than those. So, I do find it hard to say that this win in 16 innings is a "big" win. A "big" win for me does not happen in the regular season in the NBA, NHL or MLB regular season unless we are in the final weeks of the season. But, what I have always thought is that games like these (tough, close games that you pull out) do add up. If a team loses a number of close games, then it starts to wear on them as the season progresses. Similarily, if a team wins a lot of close games, I have always felt that that team develops a sort of belief that they will somehow come back and win that game.

If the Tigers had struggled winning close games all year, then I'm not sure if one win would turn that around. But, the Tigers are 25-11 in games decided by one or two runs. I have always held the opinion that at some point stats like that stop becoming a coincidence and instead speak to that "it" factor that some teams have. Regardless what happens tomorrow or Sunday, I like this team. Some players need to get the broom. Sure. But, I like this team a lot. We might have another special run to the postseason in front of us, and games like this one and the Raburn walk off against the Cubs a week or two back give me that hope. We will see, but this team has got to love being in close games and they must have a world of confidence in games like that. Imo, that helps us an awful lot and gives us an advantage over a team who has struggled in close games.

As far as the game itself...

-Slowey was basically throwing us batting practice. Thames crushed a home run. Josh Anderson even got a triple. This is the 4th start in his last 5 where Slowey struggled. It is nice to see the Twins rotation (which I am really not impressed with) start to to get beat up a little.

-Any win over the Twins is important. Any win over a team in our division is important. This game would have been especially hard to take after we blew a six run lead. Miner blew it with one bad inning and then our bats would completely cold. Thankfully, R.A. Dickey's knuckelball was extremely hittable tonight. He had a 0.66 ERA in June.

-Lucas French went 4.2 innings with 2 ER, 6 hits, 2 BB and 3 SO's. He was pulled after just 2 outs in the fourth inning and replaced by Zach Miner. He ended up only throwing 81 pitches, and put 50 of them in for strikes. They put some good swings on him and Cuddyer, specifically, was really putting some good cuts on the ball against him. His stuff was pretty much what we expected. Upper 80's on the fastball and a decent slider that got him a couple SO's. Is he the answer in the back of the rotation? Too early to say, and his first start was not better than Figaro's. But, he did battle pretty well and I was especially impressed when he only allowed 1 run in the 3rd inning despite being in quite the jam. At the very least, French has earned another start.

-In Zach Miner's previous 15 innings of relief work, he allowed 2 ER. Tonight, he allowed 5 ER in 0.2 IP. To put it bluntly, he was awful. He got behind hitters and got the ball up in the zone too much. The interesting thing about Miner is that he is prone to very bad outings like this. On June 3rd, for example, he allowed 4 ER in 0.1 IP against Boston and on April 13th he allowed 8 ER in 3.1 IP against the White Sox. Hence, his ERA looks very bad at 4.98 even though the majority of his outings are pretty good. He just has to cut down on those type of outings, though.

-Ni went up against Mauer and Morneau and got them both out. What else can you say? Good job, kid.

-Lyon and Seay, as usual, got the job done. Lyon did allow two hits and Seay nearly allowed a home run to Mauer, but they continue to impress in the back end of our bullpen.

-This was one of the best performances of Joel Zumaya's career. He struck out four batters, had great command and great stuff. 53 pitches and he still struck out Cuddyer with the game on the line? Unbelievable.

-And while we are on the topic of Zumaya, how about the decision by Leyland to not only keep him in despite throwing over 50 pitches but to also walk Mauer and Morneau to make the bases loaded. That shows a tremendous amount of respect for the M & M boys, and a lot of confidence in Zumaya. He delivered and for once it is definitely time to give Leyland credit for making a decision that not a lot of managers would have had the guts to make.

-Rodney was also brilliant tonight. 2 IP with a SO and no baserunners. Tough as nails tonight when we needed him to be.

-Dolsi got two chances to close the game for us, and thank goodness he finally did. 64 pitches for him tonight, 2 ER, 4 hits an error, and he struggled with the signs that Laird was giving him. I was not impressed with his stuff tonight, but he did manage to outperform R.A. Dickey and that is all that matters. Does he get demoted to Toledo to help shore up our tired bullpen?

Position player performances:

Granderson- 2 hits, 2 runs and two BB. I will take that .500 OBP from my leadoff hitter all day, everyday.
Polanco- Prior to tonight, he had two games all year in which he struck out twice. Tonight, he struck out three times. Then he gets hit below the belt on a foul ball, and singles home a run in the 14th inning on the very next pitch. Not a lot of guys could do that. Also, not very many guys would be able to get another clutch RBI in the 16th inning. Quite a performance by Polanco tonight.
Cabrera- He went 1 for 8 with a near home run off the wall that just went for a double. He continues to make nice plays at 1st base. He has obviously had much better days at the plate.
Thames- He is what he is: sometimes he will run into a home run (like he did in the 3rd inning) and most of the time he will not do much else. He went 2 for 5 before Raburn took his spot.
Raburn- He got doubled up after Ordonez hit a line shot to the second baseman. Other than that, though, he got 2 hits and a big RBI in the 16th inning.
Don Kelly- One hit tonight before being replaced by Ordonez. I have to wonder how long it will take for him or Josh Anderson to be replaced by a more deserving OF like Clete Thomas.
Ordonez- I said he had to step up his production this weekend, and he did get a big RBI knock in the 16th inning. That is step one. Now, perform on Saturday and Sunday.
Inge- 1 for 6 but he did get on base with 2 HBP.
Josh Anderson- He got a triple for us. He also made a horrendous play in the outfield that contributed to two of their runs, and continues to have weak at-bats. He or Kelly needs to go.
Laird- This has got to be a tough game for a catcher. He battled through the extra innings and hit a HR. With continued rest b/c of the emergence of Dusty Ryan, I think he might be able to continue this hitting into the second half of the season and not tire out.
Santiago- 1 for 6 at the plate. Bad night for him despite a favorable pitching matchup against Slowey.

-Edwin Jackson going for us tomorrow against Francisco Liriano. Jackson needs to go at least 7 innings and probably even more than that. Our bullpen is gassed and only Ni, Seay, Miner, Lyon and Rodney are available. And, Leyland would prefer to rest some of those guys. If Jackson has a complete game in him, it would be a great time to bring it out for tomorrow.

-Finally, here is the minor league recap provided to us by Bill at The Detroit Tigers Weblog.

Game 79 preview: French vs. Slowey

Kevin Slowely looks to become the AL's first 11 game winner and prove once again why wins is an overrated stat. Nonetheless, he is 3-0 against the Tigers with a 4.57 ERA so he gets the job done against us. For the year, he has a 4.41 ERA, 4.14 FIP, and a near-league average WHIP of 1.40. The most impressive thing about Slowey is that he basically does not walk people. His 1.54 BB/9 rate is outstanding and so is his K/BB rate of 4.73. He allows home runs at a decent clip with a HR/9 rate of 1.44. What is perhaps most interesting of all is his absurdly high BABIP of .348. I have to think that will drop and by the end of the year his ERA will probably be around 4.00. Basically, he is an innings eater (on pace to throw nearly 180 innings) and would be a very good #3 starter on a championship team.

His GB/FB ratio of 0.69 suggests that he is a flyball pitcher. In fact, 47.2% of batted balls against him are fly balls. About 20% are line drives. And, about 10% of those fly balls will end up being a HR, so that is something to watch tonight with some of our flyball hitters (hello, Mr. Thames and Granderson).

Slowey will not strike many people out, and his lack of velocity would suggest that. His fastball averages about 89 MPH. His pitch selection in and of itself is quite interesting. He uses a fastball-type pitch 69% of the time and then three other pitches that he uses no more than 13% and no less than 8.5% of the time. The slider, changeup and curveball are his next favorite pitches but there is a chance that he could use each of them equally. Fan Graphs suggests that his best pitch is his fastball, and that his three other pitches are not plus pitches. One other thing that should be pointed out is that he throws a first pitch strike 68% of the time. The league average is 58%. He will lull you to sleep with how good of command he has.

On the plus side, 3 of his last 4 starts have been a little shaky. He has allowed at least 3 ER in those 3 starts and did not make it past the sixth inning in any of his last 4 starts. As far as his splits go, lefties hit very well against him with a .349/.390/.538 stat line. We should hit some lefties tonight against him (Granderson, Kelly and Santiago, please). As far as our team goes, he is the type of pitcher we struggle the most with. We have a worse OPS+ against finesse pitchers than against power hitters, and a worse OPS+ against fly ball pitchers than against ground ball pitchers. Slowey is a finesse, fly ball pitcher.

As far as the Twins are concerned, they do struggle a little bit more with left handed pitchers (Jason Kubel, in particular, is terrible against left handed pitching). On the other hand, they do their best against finesse pitchers, which is what French will provide for them. So, it could be a little give and take tonight for French. I already broke down French's numbers in this post, and I think he has the potential to be a serviceable starter for us. Facing off against Morneau or Mauer, he had better be.

For a break down of French's limited stay with the Tigers so far, Fire Jim Leyland provides some good info.

UPDATE: No Ordonez tonight. And, unlike what he did against Brett Anderson, Leyland is listening to the stats tonight an is batting 4 lefties against Slowey.

1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Marcus Thames, DH
5. Don Kelly, LF
6. Brandon Inge, 3B
7. Josh Anderson, RF
8. Gerald Laird, C
9. Ramon Santiago, SS

Scouting the Minnesota Twins

The Twins enter play today 41-39 and just three games back of your first place Tigers. Thanks to Morneau and Mauer, it is likely that they will be a thorn in our side all season. Lets check the numbers in comparison to AL teams (first number) and to the Tigers (second number).

Offense
Batting Average- .269 (6th, 8th)
Runs- 379 (8th, 9th)
BB/K - 0.56 (4th, 11th)
OBP- .342 (7th, 10th)
SLG- .420 (9th, tied for 7th)
OPS-.762 (7th, 10th)
BABIP- .308 (3rd, 10th)
Runs Created- 383 (6th, 11th)
wOBA- .334 (8th, tied for 9th)
Batting value- 22.8 (7th, 9th)

-As you can tell, the Twins are pretty much a middle-of-the pack offensive team and is more efficient than the Tigers offense. They draw more walks, strikeout less, get on base more, have a better OPS and have created more runs. The Twins have four guys with an OPS above .800 (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel) and two other guys with an OPS above .700 (Brendan Harris and Denard Span). At the bottom of their order, though, they struggle even worse than we do as everyone else with 150+ at bats has an OPS below .625. We need to limit the damage the top of the order will do to us, and then feast on their poor batters at the bottom of the order.

Pitching
I am just going to concern myself with the relievers because I am going to break down their starters on an individual basis for each game. So, how about that Twins bullpen?

ERA- 3.82 (4th, 10th)
FIP- 4.54 (10th, 9th)
WHIP- 1.31 (4th, 10th)
BABIP- .278 (2nd, 7th)
K/9- 7.15 (10th, 11th)
BB/9- 3.57 (3rd, 12th)
K/BB- 2.00 (7th, 12th)
LOB %- 77.5 % (2nd, 10th)
HR/9- 1.18 (11th, 9th)

-So, the Twins again appear to have the better bullpen. They rarely walk batters, leave a high percentage of men on base and their WHIP and ERA are both in the top half of the league. If their is one glimmer of hope for their performance to fall off, it is that they do allow quite a few home runs, and their FIP is high with a low BABIP. Can they sustain that performance?

As usual, Joe Nathan is the rock in their bullpen. He has 21 saves with a 1.44 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 1.95 FIP, and a sick K/BB ratio of 6.50. He does have 2 blown saves but he should still be an All Star this season. Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and R.A. Dickey all have 20+ appearances and ERA's under 3. The back end of their bullpen, though, can be had against guys like Jesse Crain and Craig Breslow. But, the front end of their bullpen is very, very good.

Defense
Perhaps surprisingly, the Twins defense has not been that good this year. Their combined UZR of -11.3 ranks 20th in MLB. On the other hand, the Tigers rank third in that stat with a UZR of +27.1. SS Brendan Harris, and CF Carlos Gomez are plus defenders, 3B Joe Crede might be a Gold Glove winner, and LF Denard Span might be one someday, as well. But, their other 4 positional players are below average defensively. With that said, Joe Mauer is great defensively and there is no stat that really shows that.

-Overall, the Tigers are 1-4 against the Twins this year and this is an important series, imo. Will it define our season? Of course not. But winning this series could propel us into the second half of the season with some much needed confidence. Bill disagrees with me, and Lee offers a unique look at the Twins-Tigers comparisons.