A statistical look at the Lions, Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Spartans and Wolverines

Friday, July 3, 2009

Could Lucas French be our Zach Miner circa 2006?

During our pennant run in 2006 we featured a great top 4 of the rotation of Kenny Rogers, Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman. Once Mike Maroth went down with an injury, we needed someone else to come in and shore up our pitching staff. Enter Zach Miner. Before his final two disastrous starts, Miner had a 4.27 ERA in 14 starts, 11 starts where he went at least 5 innings and he did not walk more than 3 batters in any of those starts. Miner's ability to add that stability at the back end of the rotation for two and a half months helped pave the way for the Tigers to earn a playoff spot that season. The question now becomes: can Lucas French provide that same type of stability at the back end of rotation? Lets make some comparisons by looking at the numbers...

In 2006, Miner was 6-0 and had a 2.82 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in Toledo. This season in Toledo, French is 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA, 3.16 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. Those are fairly comparable numbers and one could argue that French has superior numbers. But, the comparisons should not stop there, and French's numbers will continue to look better.

Player K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 .AVG BABIP LOB %
French 7.93 2.20 3.60 0.66 .236 .291 71.8
Miner 5.71 3.10 1.84 1.06 .230 .283 75.2%

So, when looking at their minor league stats for that year, French had superior numbers except for batting average against and LOB %. His superior K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9 rate, WHIP and FIP is certainly more than encouraging as he makes his case for the rotation tonight.

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