Tigers #4 and #5 starters not as bad as some might assume

On the eve of another Armando Galaragga start, I think it would be interesting to see how other teams #4 or #5 starters have done in the AL and to examine if perhaps we have too high expectations for our back of the rotation guys. I will do a team by team breakdown in order of overall team starters ERA in the AL.

Seattle

-They have the best ERA amongst starting pitcher ERA’s at 3.90, the best WHIP and third best FIP. So, they have a good starting rotation. No doubt about that. Erik Bedard has had some injury troubles this year but has posted a 2.47 ERA. Felix Hernandez has a 2.54 ERA and Jarrod Washburn has a 3.22 ERA. That is as good as it gets for your top 3 starters. But, how about their #4 and #5 starters? This is where it gets dicey. No other starter has more than 10 starts, and no one has an ERA below 4. Jason Vargas has been their best next starter with 9 starts and a 4.06 ERA. And, even he has a FIP of 4.91 After that, Seattle has just been piecing things together for their #5 starter. Morrow has been injured most of the year. That has left 3 #5 starters competing for starts (think Miner, Willis and Figaro) with a combined ERA of 6.75. Sound familiar? So, the best rotation in the AL basically has no true #5 starter and a #4 starter who is posting similar numbers to Porcello. The one true difference between our rotation and their rotation is that they have an additional top of the rotation starter and we do not. Jackson and Verlander would qualify as #1 and #2 starters for them, and Porcello and Galaragga would fit in with their #4 and #5 starters.

White Sox

-Second best ERA, 7^th best FIP, tied for second in WHIP. They have an unusually low BABIP so their rotation numbers should start looking worse. For now, we will just breakdown what is a top 5 rotation, at least, in the AL. They have gone with six starters this year. I will count Clayton Richard and Bartolo Colon as combined #4 starters for them. Unlike the Mariners, the Sox only have one true front of the rotation starter in Mark Buehrle and his 3.26 ERA. John Danks and Gavin Floyd have been inning eaters, but they have similar ERA numbers to Porcello. So, we have a better top 3 than they do. Their #4 starters in Bartolo Colon and Richard have an ERA of roughly 4.3 so that is one advantage they have over us. However, like Seattle, their 5^th starter is not good. Jose Contreras has a 5.19 ERA and has only been slightly better than Galaragga. To recap: we are fortunate to have Verlander and Jackson, while they basically have 1 #1 starter and 3 #3 starters. There #5 starter has struggled just like ours.

Royals

-3^rd in ERA, 1^st in FIP, tied for second in WHIP. Good rotation or the Zack Greinke show? The latter. Greinke is the Cy Young winner of today and I won’t dazzle you with all of his numbers. But, he does have a 1.95 ERA and it is legit. Gil Meche is their #2 starter and he has a 4.27 ERA. Brian Bannister has a 4.17 ERA but has 3 less starts. Kyle Davies is really their #4 starter with 14 starts. He has a 5.76 ERA. Luke Hochevar and Sidney Ponson are their #5 starters and they have an ERA of roughly 5.5. Again, Verlander and Jackson give us an advantage that few teams have. Porcello fits in nicely as the #3 starter and our #4 and #5 starters are similar to their starters.

Angels

Tied for 4^th in ERA with the Tigers. 8^th in FIP and 6^th in WHIP. Like every year, the Angels have dealt with a lot of injuries. Jared Weaver is a bona fide #1 with a 2.65 ERA. Joe Saunders is their #2 with 15 starts and 3.66 ERA. So, our top #2 compares favorably to there top 2. Then, they have had to piece together the starts. I guess we can count the combo of Darren Oliver/ Sean O’Sullivan/ Kelvim Escobar/ Dustin Moseley/ Shane Loux as the #3 starters (even though that is Lackey). But, for our purposes, they have a combined ERA in their 14 starts of roughly 4.00. Again, Porcello looks like a legit #3 on all teams except Seattle. Lackey has been hurt a lot, has only 9 starts and has an ERA of 5.06. Matt Palmer is 7-1 but has an ERA of 5.11. Their #4 and #5 starters are slightly better than ours but they each have an ERA above 5.

Blue Jays

6^th in ERA, 4^th in FIP, 5^th in WHIP. Good solid rotation. A true #1 in Halladay with his 2.56 ERA. Ricky Romero has only started 10 times but has a 3.20 ERA. Scott Richmond has a 3.64 ERA, and Brian Tallet has a 4.33 ERA. Before last night, we basically had the same top 3 as they did, in terms of ERA. We do not have a #4 starter like they do. But, 7 other guys have pitched for them and they have an ERA above 5. Again, that sounds like us. Quick recap, again. No #5 starter has an ERA below 5, yet. Our top 3 competes very favorably. Our #4 is below average.

Athletics

-7^th in ERA, 9^th in FIP, 11^th in WHIP. Second tier rotation with a lot of injuries. Sums up their season. Dallas Braden, Josh Outman (who is down with shoulder surgery now), Trevor Cahill are there #1, 2 and 3. Braden has a 3.26 ERA, Outman has a 3.58 ERA and Cahill has a 4.23 ERA. Anderson is their #4 starter with a 5.45 ERA. They do not have a set #5 guy, but Mazarro does have a surprising 2.95 ERA in his limited starts. The other starters, though, have a combined ERA above 6.

Rangers

-8^th in ERA, 13^th in FIP, 8^th in WHIP. Lowest BABIP in the league. Kevin Milwood’s numbers are going to drop. No doubt about it. But, for now, he has a 2.64 ERA. Scott Feldman has a 3.30 ERA. Vincente Padilla has a 4.75 ERA, Brendan McCarthy has a 4.92 ERA and Matt Harrison has a 6.11 ERA. They have had some injuries, but each of these guys have 10 starts or more. Like most teams, their #4 and #5 starters have ERA’s floating around 5 or above.

Twins

-9^th in ERA ,5^th in FIP, 4^th in WHIP. Nick Blackburn has a 3.10 ERA. Not an ideal #1 starter but he has done the job so far. Then, they have a bunch of 3 or 4 starters. Slowey has a 4.41 ERA and somehow has 10 wins. Perkins has a 4.70 ERA, and Baker has a 5.17 ERA. Liriano continues to struggle after that great 2006. He has a 5.62 ERA. Our back end of the rotation, like it is to a lot of teams, is similar to there back of the rotation. Our top starters are head and shoulder above them.

Red Sox

-10^th in ERA, 2^nd in FIP, 11^th in WHIP. Unbelievably high BABIP. Disappointing year for these set of arms, though. Beckett has a 3.48 ERA. Wakefield has a 4.18 ERA and Jon Lester has a 4.35 ERA. Brad Penny has a 4.79 ERA. Dice-K has been a mess with an ERA of 8.23. Justin Masterson has an ERA of 4.58 in his six starts. Still, they do not have a #5 starter after having moved Masterson to the bullpen. There back of the rotation is a disaster just like ours and they are a favorite to win the World Series. What they do have is one more reliable starter. What they don’t have is a 1-2 punch like Verlander and Jackson.

Yankees

-11^th in ERA, 10^th in FIP, 10^th in WHIP. Below average rotation. Sabathia has an ERA of 3.55. Chamberlain has an ERA of 3.81. Burnett has an ERA of 3.93. Pettite has an ERA of 4.38 with 90 IP and is a pretty ideal #4 starter. They have no #5 starter as Hughes and Wang have been absolute disasters. We have a better top of the rotation. They have an ideal #4. We each are without a #5 starter.

Rays

12^th in ERA, 11^th in FIP, 9^th in WHIP. Below average rotation for a contending team. James Shields has an ERA of 3.41. Matt Garza has an ERA of 3.61, and Jeff Nieman has an ERA of 3.95. Until they started using David Price as a starter, they were without a #4 or 5 starter they could rely on. Andy Sonnanstine is one of the worst pitchers in the AL with a 6.61 ERA and Scott Kazmir has a 7.28 ERA. Having Price helps some of their problems, but they do not have a reliable #5 starter. Noticing a trend here?

Orioles

-13^th in ERA, last in FIP, 13^th in WHIP. Yeah, they are awful. I’ll keep this short. The Orioles best starter, Bradley Bergesen, has a 3.76 ERA. Koji Uehara has a 4.05 ERA. Jeremy Guthrie has a 5.11 ERA. After that, they pick a name out of a hat and throw them out there to pitch. Combined ERA for their #4 and 5 starters of over 6.

Indians

-Last in ERA, 12^th in FIP, last in WHIP. Terrible rotation even with a legit #1 in Cliff Lee. Lee has a 2.92 ERA and one of the top 10 pitchers in the game. After that, the Indians’ two most common starters are Carl Pavano and Fausto Carmona. Pavano has a 5.56 ERA and Carmona has a7.42 ERA. Those are supposed to be their #2 and #3 starters. I’m not even going to talk about their back of the rotation guys. Be thankful you are not an Indians fan this year.

Wow, that is a lot of info. To summarize…

• -The only teams that have a 1-2 punch like us are Seattle, LA Angels, Blue Jays and Rangers. And, realistically, the Blue Jays and Rangers duo will not keep that up.
• - Only the Mariners have a better #3 starter than we have in Porcello. He matches up well with the #3 starters or combined starters for the White Sox, Royals, Angels, Blue Jays and Athletics. We have a very good #3 starter as long as Porcello keeps this up.
• -What we do lack is a true #4 starter. Seattle, the White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees all have more reliable #4 starters than we do. And, with Price now in the Rays rotation, they have a good #4 starter. The other teams, though, are just piecing together the rotation in that spot. If we can find another starter who can give us a 4.5 ERA or so, we will be right where we need to be in that regard.
• - If we count Galaragga as our #5 starter, then we should actually be thankful that he has been eating innings. EVERY team in the AL has a #5 starter with an ERA above 5, and many do not have a guy they consistently throw out there and often have combined ERA’s above 6. If Galaragga is our #5, then we should be fine with that. His numbers suggest that we should be, anyway.
• -If we find one more reliable starter, a guy who can be a true #4 with a 4.5 ERA and an innings eater (which is probably something Zack Miner would provide) we would have a rotation that is as good as any in the AL with all things considered. So, that is something to think about when evaluating Galaragga and our back of the rotation starters. No team has a reliable #5 starter and only half have a reliable #4.