Detroit Red Wings Off-season plan

The pain and misery still lingers from that guy-wrenching 7 game series in the Cup final loss to Pitt. The Wings were clearly an injured team, but all credit goes to Pitt. Now, it is back to the drawing board to try and win the organization's 12th Stanley Cup next June. Below is the players under contract and their cap hit for next season:


Detroit Red Wings

#	Player	Position	2009-2010 Cap Hit	2010-2011 Cap Hit	Contract Length
	Forwards
13	Pavel Datsyuk	C/LW	$6,700,000	$6,700,000	thru 2013-14
40	Henrik Zetterberg	C/LW	$6,083,333	$6,083,333	thru 2020-21
93	Johan Franzen	C/RW	$3,954,545	$3,954,545	thru 2019-20
51	Valtteri Filppula	C/LW	$3,000,000	$3,000,000	thru 2012-13
11	Daniel Cleary	C/RW/LW	$2,800,000	$2,800,000	thru 2012-13
96	Tomas Holmstrom	LW/RW	$2,250,000	$xxx,xxx	thru 2009-10
33	Kris Draper	C	$1,583,333	$1,583,333	thru 2010-11
18	Kirk Maltby	LW/RW	$883,333	$xxx,xxx	thru 2009-10
43	Darren Helm	C	$599,444	$xxx,xxx	thru 2009-10
	Defense
5	Nicklas Lidstrom	D	$7,450,000	$xxx,xxx	thru 2009-10
28	Brian Rafalski	D	$6,000,000	$6,000,000	thru 2011-12
23	Brad Stuart	D	$3,750,000	$3,750,000	thru 2011-12
55	Niklas Kronwall	D	$3,000,000	$3,000,000	thru 2011-12
3	Andreas Lilja	D	$1,250,000	$xxx,xxx	thru 2009-10
52	Jonathan Ericsson	D	$900,000	$900,000	thru 2010-11
22	Brett Lebda	D	$650,000	$xxx,xxx	thru 2009-10
14	Derek Meech	D	$483,333	$xxx,xxx	thru 2009-10
	Goalies
30	Chris Osgood	G	$1,416,667	$1,416,667	thru 2010-11
35	Jimmy Howard	G	$716,667	$716,667	thru 2010-11
	Projected Total:		$53,470,655	$39,904,545
	Salary Cap:		$56,700,000	$56,700,000
	Cap Space:		$2,229,335	$16,795,455

Notes:
Red = Unrestricted Free Agent
Blue = Restricted Free Agent
Green = 35+ years old at contract signing, cap hit remains [almost] regardless



Free Agents

#	Player	Position	2008-2009 Cap Hit	FA Status
	Forwards
81	Marian Hossa	RW	$7,450,000	UFA
37	Mikael Samuelsson	RW	$1,200,000	UFA
26	Jiri Hudler	LW/RW	$1,015,000	RFA
21	Ville Leino	LW/RW	$875,000	RFA
44	Aaron Downey	RW	$575,000	UFA
25	Darren McCarty	RW	$575,000	UFA
28	Tomas Kopecky	LW/RW	$500,000	UFA
	Defense
24	Chris Chelios	D	$750,000	UFA
	Goalies
29	Ty Conklin	G	$750,000	UFA

-For our purposes, we are just going to assume that the cap will be $56.7 million. It has been speculated that it may drop by as much as $2-2.5 million, but it could just as easily stay the same.

So, we have 9 forwards under contract, 8 D-men and 2 goalies. Our D is set, but I would not be surprised to see Lilja placed on LTIR next season b/c of his persistent headaches. If that is the case, that would free up $1.25 million. Outside of that, and maybe an unexpected retirement by Homer, the Wings do not have much cap space.

Obviously the big question this offseason revolves around whether or not the Wings will re-sign Marian Hossa. While the cap space is limited, there have been numerous reports from fairly respected hockey writers (like Michael Farber) that Hossa was a lock to re-sign with Wings. Frankly, I hope they let him walk. Now, Hossa is a top 15 winger in the game and will walk away when his career is finished with over 500 goals. But, the long-term contracts to Franzen and Zetterberg have left me a little weary of another long-term deal to a forward. If Hossa signs for a cap hit of $5 million or more, in 5 years, the Wings will have Z, Pavel, Franzen and Hossa all past their primes and combined taking up close to $25 million in cap space. That would put us in cap hell.

Beyond that, Hossa is already 30 years of age. That is generally the magic number in hockey where forwards begin to lose some of their skills. Of the top 10 goal scorers this year in the NHL, Hossa was the oldest at the age of 30. Of the top 20 goal scorers, there are only two players 30 and above: Hossa and Iginla. And, Iginla is 31. Further, of the 39 players who scored 30 or more goals this year, only 5 are 30 or older (Hossa, Iginla, Pavel, St. Louis, and Doan). This is mostly a young man's game. There are always exceptions, like Sakic enjoying 3 of his best seasons after he hit 30, and Alfreddson and Selanne each enjoying several productive years after hitting 30. Based on history, though, Hossa's production is going to start to slip off here pretty soon. To invest another long-term contract in a forward nearing the end of his prime could kill us in the long-term. In the short term, we may be a better team. But, the Wings have always maintained a philosophy of competing year-in, year-out, and with the Cap where it is at, I think we would be playing with fire to spend so much money on 4 forwards.

Here is what I expect to see happen assuming the roster stays as is, and Homer returns.

-Wings re-sign Sammy for $2 million per for 3 years
-Wings re-sign Kopecky for $500,000 for 1 year
-Wings re-sign Leino for $800,000 for 1 year with a guarantee that he will be with the Wings all year.
-Trade Hudler on draft night or let him sign with another team. He is an RFA and we probably could get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him.
-Let Hossa walk and wish him well.
-Chelios is gone.
-Conklin will probably walk as well so the Wings can figure out what they have in Jimmy Howard.
-Downey and McCarty might re-sign, but they would only see spot duty with the Wings, and most of their work with the Griffins.
This would put us over the cap limit by about 1 millon. Easy solution: trade Lilja or place him on LTIR (for his sake, I hope he recovers from the injury and is able to play again).

Then we are left with these possible lines:

Datsyuk | Zetterberg | Holmstrom
Cleary | Filppula | Franzen
Leino| Helm | Sammy
Maltby | Draper | Kopecky

Lidstrom | Rafalski
Kronwall | Stuart
Ericsson | Lebda
Meech

Osgood | Howard

-Abdelkader will probably spend most of next year in Grand Rapids and come up in the postseason like Helm did.

-Obviously, these lines will be fluid and ever-changing. The 4th line looks pretty weak and is basically no threat to score. I could see Leino bumped down there with Kopecky bumped up to the 3rd line. Leino may get some PT on the second line with Cleary bumping down to the 3rd line. Pavel and Hank may get split up again, pushing Flip to 3rd line center and Helm to 4th line. A lot can, and will happen over the course of the season with the lines.

-As it stands, though, a top 6 forward group of Z, Pavel, Franzen, Cleary, Flip and Homer is still one of the best in the game. And, our top 5 on D is also one of the best in the game. This roster would be dimished in depth compared to this year's team. Players with the ability of Big E, Leino and Helm will not be waiting in the minors anymore. That's what the Cap will do to teams. Z and Franzen's salaries have now inceased and the Wings depth will not be as great as it once was.

But, this team would still be a top contender and a top 5 team in the league along with Anaheim, Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh. As long as Holland is still our GM, you can never count out the Wings.

-By the end of this week, I will have a ranking of all of our prospects and a look at what Grand Rapids might look like next season. And, as will always be the case, I will post some links talking about the Wings and have my daily reactions to these stories.