A statistical look at the Lions, Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Spartans and Wolverines

Sunday, June 14, 2009

What to do with Dontrelle Willis?

Here is a link to Jason Beck's blog with quotes from Willis about his poor performance today. It is hard not to feel bad for this guy. But, 8 walks in 3.2 innings, (4 of which were to the leadoff hitter in each inning) and 6 ER is simply not going to cut it. An ERA north of 7 is not going to cut it. He's throwing in the mid 80's, and has no control. As of right now, he's done. The Tigers cannot keep sending him out every 5th day if they expect to win this division. Along with Armando's struggles, the Tigers have some tough decisions to make. They have 3 great starters, an average bullpen and a great defense backing up those pitchers. But, they also have 2 starters who are not cutting it, and an anemic offense.

Here is what I see happening:

-Willis will not start in his next scheduled start. I don't know if he will be released, placed on the DL or sent to the minors (provided he gives permission) but he will no longer be a member of this rotation.
-Gallaraga will get one more start to figure this out. I always thought last year he was pitching over his head, and that he would come back to Earth this year. This year he is striking out about a batter less per 9 innings and walking a batter more per 9 innings in comparison to last year. His WHIP is 1.61 compared to 1.19 last year. And, his peripherals were not great last year. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) was only .247. The league average is .290. So, he was helped out by an unusually low BABIP. And, his FIP (Fielder Independant Pitching on an ERA scale) was 4.88. Basically, his ERA looked a lot better last year than it should have been, and this year he has come back down to Earth. With that said, I still think he can be more effective than Willis and will be given one more shot in the rotation.

-Zach Miner will take over Willis's spot in the rotation. I see no reason Zach cannot be a league average 4.5 ERA-type pitcher who can eat up some innings. If he does that, he will be a welcome addition to this staff.

-And, if Armando and Willis continue to struggle heading to the trade deadline, I could see the Tigers attempt to acquire another pitcher. Jarrod Washburn is a guy I would be especially interested in. He will be a UFA this off-season and will probably be on the trading block if Seattle turns to sellers at the deadline. Throughout his career he has been an innings eater (he has never pitched fewer than 149 innings since 2001) and has a career ERA of 4.09. That is all the Tigers need. I don't think they are in position to get in a bidding war to go after some of the top pitchers on the trading block, like Eric Bedard. They do not have the prospects to do that. We would not need to give up those types of prospects to acquire Washburn.

-I also think the Tigers need to acquire a corner outfielder, but I will reserve that talk for another day in another post.

-Before each Tigers game, I will post a preview of the upcoming game with the line-up and pitchers spotlighted, etc. I also will provide a post-game review of each game. And, I will update the blog with opinions and analysis in case there is any unexpected transactions or news during the off day tomorrow before they take on St. Louis in a 3-game series.

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