Villanueva a free agent and potentially a Piston

In a somewhat surprising move, the Bucks have let Charlie Villanueva become an unrestricted free agent. This comes on the heels of the Keith Langolis story on Pistons.com that suggested that Joe Dumars might end up pursuing Villanueva in free agency.

It’s curious that Carlos Boozer, who said several months ago that he would opt out of his contract, has yet to inform Utah he’ll do so. Even though negotiations can’t take place until July 1, agents can sniff out what the market will bear. Boozer is due nearly $13 million next year. Agent Rob Pelinka must have at first thought he could get him a contract starting at close to that and escalating upward from there. But maybe he’s less confident now. And maybe Joe Dumars, sensing Pelinka will shoot for the moon, is looking elsewhere to fill his frontcourt needs.

Enter Villanueva. Until the Bucks dealt Richard Jefferson to San Antonio earlier Tuesday for three spare parts – Oberto, Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas – it was widely believed Milwaukee would lose at least one, and potentially both, of its restricted free agents, Villanueva and Ramon Sessions. The trade – and the ability to buy out Bowen and, perhaps, Thomas – gives Milwaukee greater flexibility.

-On the surface, this makes sense. Depending on who you believe, Boozer is seeking a $15 million a year deal. The Pistons have roughly $20 million to give out, and Dumars has been adamant that he wants to land two impact free agents. Signing Boozer for that much would take away that possibility.

I imagine there are 5 free agents that we will specifically look at. Ben Gordon, Villanueva, Hedo Turkoglu, Boozer and Paul Milsap are guys who will all get looks from Dumars. In this post, we are going to take a look at Villanueva.

First, lets provide a little background on Villanueva. He is 6'11" 232 and has been a well-known name in the world of basketball for awhile. He was one of the top recruits in the nation in high school before eventually signing with U Conn. After leaving early from U Conn, he was picked by Toronto with the 7th pick in the first round of the 2005 NBA draft. In his rookie year, he was a runner up for Rookie of the Year after averaging 13 points and 6 boards a game. That offseason he was traded to Milwaukee. In '07 and '08 he averaged roughly 12 points and 6 boards.

It was this past season where Villanueva had his best NBA season. In just 26.9 minutes a game, he averaged 16.7 points a game and nearly 7 boards a game. He also had a PER of 18.64 (15 is considered average, and 20 is at a near All Star level). So, lets go beyond the box score and dig deeper into his game...

Rebounding
According to 82games.com, Villanueva had a rebounding rate of 26.9, which put him at 30th in the league, and just ahead of Varejao and Pau Gasol. For comparisons sake, McDyess was in the top 10 in this ranking for the league with Dwight Howard obviously number one. Rasheed Wallace had a rating of 24.4. While that does not sound so bad, remember that there are 60 starting PF and C in the league. He ranked right in the middle. So, as a #2 rebounder on your team, he would be pretty good. But, if you are counting on him to be your best rebounder, then more than likely, that team would be greatly disappointed.

Passing
He had a 3.3 passer rating, which tied him with several players, including Pau Gasol. According to the media, Gasol is considered a good passing big man, but I never really saw that with Villanueva. I think a passing rating for a big man can be skewed somewhat just like a rebounding rate can be skewed for guards. I will remain neutral on this and say he is an average to slightly above average passing big man.

Shooting
He had a free throw percentage of nearly 84%, so this is a strong point of his game. He shot nearly 45 % from the field, and 35 % from 3 point land. He does have a good jump shot, and he can score the ball as evidenced by scoring nearly 17 points a game in just 27 minutes.

Shot selection
This is big in my mind. Rasheed Wallace took jump shots away from the basket 89% of the time last year. That is way, way too much. Villanueva, on the other hand, shot inside 36% of the time. He is not a traditional back-to-the-basket player, so he will float around a little bit on the perimeter. But, this is not too bad of a rate.

Defense
Ok, so he is a decent rebounder and passer, and a pretty good shooter with a somewhat acceptable shot selection for a big man with his style of game. Defensively? Meh. Playing at the center position, his opponent had a PER of 27.4. So, at all costs, we cannot let him play at center or he would be a complete mismatch. At PF, he is a lot better but still a below average defender. His opponent averaged a PER of 18.3 against him. As a PF, he averaged a PER of 20.7. So, he is a plus player even with that defense.

Other important info
It is interesting to note that Milwaukee's best 5 man unit last year, by a substantial margin, was with Villanueva on the bench. That is something to consider. His Roland Rating (which takes into account how well the team performs when the player is off the court as opposed to when he is on the court) was +0.2. For comparisons sake, Rasheed had a Roland Rating of 0.0, and Iverson had a rating of +0.1 It should also be wise to point out that he draws fouls about 9% of his shots, or the same rate that Tayshaun Prince does. Finally, Villanueva has a very high usage rate of 26.0. That ranks 14th in the NBA. Other than Lou Williams of Philly and Will Bynum, the players above him are all #1 options on their teams. What does that tell you about Lou Williams, Bynum and Villanueva's game? For a guy who is clearly not a #1 option or even a #2 option, he requires the ball too much to perform well imo.

Analysis
Villanueva might sign for the mid level exception for a contender. We are not a contender. So, we would have to pay him probably $7 to $8 million or so a year to land him, if not more. Looking at the numbers, he is a good #2 rebounder on a team (but we do not have a #1 rebounder if McDyess leaves), a good scorer who can play a hybrid position like Dumars apparently is leaning towards going to more. And, he appears to be a decent passing big man. There is more than meets the eye, though, with Villanueva. He is a below average defender who does not draw fouls at a rate you would like from a PF. Also, his team did not suffer when he was on the bench. Finally, his usage rate is dowright startling, and I have no idea how he and Bynum would exist on the same court.

Still, he is only going to be 25 next season and his natural talent is undeniable as he will probably be a 20 point a night scorer when he gets the minutes, and get you 8 boards a night. Assuming the price is not outrageous, we only play him at the PF spot, and we acquire a very good rebounder and defensive center to make up for his shortcomings defensively, then he could be an intriguing option going forward. To me, though, that is asking a lot and I am not sure that Villanueva is the answer.