Game 74: Tigers trying to avoid the sweep

After a 7 game winning streak, the Tigers have fallen back to Earth a little bit with two straight losses against the Houston Astros. Today, Edwin Jackson takes the mound. We all know about the transformation of Jackson since coming to the Tigers in exchange for RF Matt Joyce. After never having an ERA or FIP below 4, a K/BB rate above 1.5, and a WHIP lower than 1.5, he suddenly has a 2.40 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2.72 K/BB and a 3.26 FIP. Now, his differential between his FIP and ERA and a low BABIP of .258 might suggest that his ERA will climb before the season ends. Still, he has been great this year, and we need another good performance from him today. He has three plus pitches with a good fastball, one of the best sliders in the majors and a decent curveball. His ERA is a whole run lower on the road, so that might also benefit us today.

Towing the mound for the Astros is veteran Russ Ortiz. In his days with the Giants and Braves, he was a very good #2/#3 starter and was a 21 game winner in 2003. But, this isn't 2003 anymore. The last 3 years prior to this one, he has an ERA above 5.5, and he did not even pitch last season. This year, based on his ERA of 3.47 it would appear that he is having a career resurgance. But, his 5.05 BB/9, 1.53 WHIP, and 4.52 FIP tell us that his ERA is a little misleading. He also only has a 4.08 ERA as a starter, so the numbers suggest that this is a pitching matchup that certainly favors the Tigers. Right handed batters have an OPS of nearly .200 better than Left Handed batters against him, so Ordonez should return to the lineup today. Overall, his pitches are average. His only plus pitch is his fastball and a +4 value for a fastball is actually his best since 2003. But, he is a 4- pitch pitcher. He throws his fastball only half the time, and then mixes up his pitches well from there. He throws his curveball 19 % of the time, his cutter 16 % of the time, and his changeup about 12% of the time. His velocity is nothing to write home about as his fastball usually only averages 90 MPH. We are not dealing with another Paulino here today.

So, what should we expect from the Tigers today? Like I mentioned, we should field a right handed heavy lineup so Ordonez will probably get the call today to return to the lineup. Everett might, but he struggles with the slider more so than anyone else on our team and Santiago doesn't. He might be the better bet in today's game. It will be an interesting decision on Leyland's part. On the one hand, he should go with the right handed batter in Everett. On the other hand, Santiago might be better equipped to deal with Ortiz's pitches. Curtis Granderson is our best combined slider, cutter hitter so this could be the day where he breaks out of his mini-slump. Brandon Inge is a real good fastball and cutter hitter, as well, so he too will be one watch. The fact that he is a right handed batter also gives him an added advantage today against Ortiz.