Game 76 Preview: Tigers vs. A's

For everyone who follows minor league baseball, the MLB draft, and prospects, this is a dream pitching matchup. Both Rick Porcello an Brett Anderson were consensus top 20 prospects in the game before the season. I profiled Porcello below about his lack of impressive peripheral numbers, but he has more than done his fair share this year. And, going against a terrible lineup like the A's, Porcello has a better than average chance of improving on those numbers and on his already good ERA.

Brett Anderson, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in his rookie season. First, let's provide a little background on this once top prospect who is only 21 years of age. He is the son of Oklahoma State coach Frank Anderson and he slipped to the second round because of signability issues (sound similar to Porcello?). Eventually, the Diamonbacks got him. After dominating in the minors for a year, he was included in the Dan Haren deal before last season, and did not dissapoint last year with a 11.03 K/9 rate at the AA level with a 2.97 FIP and a 2.61 ERA.

Since getting the call up, though, those impressive numbers did not translate to prime time. He is 4-7 with a 5.74 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 5.11 FIP. Not too good to say the least. He has a slightly below average k/9 rate of 5.87 and a slight above average BB/9 rate of 2.35. Worse than anything, though, he has an awful 1.70 HR/9 rate. We could play some long ball with him on the mound. (Is this the game Thames snaps out of the slump with a long shot to left?) And, batters are hitting .307 off him.

According to fangraphs, he has one plus pitch with a pretty good slider. His fastball, which does have some sink to it, has been crushed this year. He throws that fastball only about 52% of the time, and uses his slider roughly 32% of the time. His changeup comes in at an average of 83 MPH, and throws it 11 % of the time. His curveball is rarely used. His velocity is ok. The fastball comes in at nearly 92 MPH, and his slider and chageup come in at roughly the same speed. Hence, there is probably some deception there for the hitter and that leads to a tough slider to hit.

Anderson, perhaps because he is only 21 and on a strict pitch count, has only gone beyond the 6th inning twice. His last three outings he has not gone through 6 innings and he has allowed a combined 14 runs in just 14.2 innings. Despite the fact that he is a big lefty, his splits are actually worse against left handed batters. They hit .356 against him with a .967 OPS compared to right handed batters hitting .281 with a .804 OPS. In his previous start against us he went 3.1 IP, allowed 6 hits, and 3 earned runs. It should be noted, though, that nine runs were scored with him on the mound (but that was a 4 error performance by his defense).

Based on the numbers, this guy is not a good pitcher. Clearly, though, he does have talent and we just have to hope that this is not the day he shows it. So, does Leyland follow the numbers and go with a left handed lineup? If he does, Santiago and Kelly or Anderson should get in the lineup. If he doesn't, we can expect Everett and Ordonez in the lineup. I would argue that Raburn, who hit a grand slam off Anderson in our last meeting, should get the nod over Ordonez. On the other hand, if this is a last-chance type deal for Ordonez, it might be time to see if he will sink or swim.