Game 77: Tigers looking to bounce back against A's

After a disappointing game last night for the Tigers, it is a battle of #5 starters tonight. First, lets look at Armando Galaragga. I profiled the pitching staffs of the AL this morning, and while it was just a quick run down of ERA's and did not take into account a number of peripheral stats, it does provide a pretty clear picture of what we can expect from a #5 starter... an ERA over 5 and you will be lucky if you can get consistent innings from that starter. Thus far this year that has been Galaragga. Now, I do agree that more should be expected of him and I think he needs to make some adjustments (more on that later). His ERA is 5.65, and he has a 5.79 FIP and 1.61 WHIP. Needless to say, that is awful. His K/9 rate of 5.65 is well below the league average and his 3.84 BB/9 rate is above average. That is not a good combination. Also, his HR/9 rate of 1.81 is the worst on the team. Eeesh. Finally, his WAR is 0.0 so he is the epitome of a replacement level player.

So, what is the difference from last year when he had a 3.73 ERA? His BABIP was .247 last year and his FIP was 4.88. So, we should have expected some of this. But, his k/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rate are all worse than last year, and he is allowing line drives at a 4% higher rate than last year. More than anything, his slider has lost its bite and opposing hitters are hitting it more. After being a plus, plus pitch last year for him, it has been a negative pitch for him. His changeup has actually improved greatly from last year, and yet, he is throwing that pitch 4 % less than last year and throwing his slider and fastball more than last year. I would like to see him rely more on his changeup and cut back a little with the slider to see if that makes a difference. He did do that last start and his last start was good, outside of the Jake Fox 3-run home run in the first inning. Coincedently, the A's hit the changeup worse than any other team in MLB. I think Galaragga can exploit that tonight and provide a good outing for a #5 starter. 7 IP, 3 ER tonight out of Armando would be outstanding, and I think he can do it.

On to the A's starter tonight, Gio Gonzalez. Like Brett Anderson, he is a young southpaw (although, as you will see, he is much smaller than Anderson) who can make some bats swing and miss.

"Gonzalez has missed his fair share of bats in the past three seasons (two years at Double-A, one at Triple-A), and has struck out more than nine batters per nine innings. At Triple-A in 2008, Gonzalez allowed 106 hits in 123 innings and posted rates of 4.46 BB/9 and 9.37 K/9. He obviously needs to shave down the walk rate, especially after his MLB debut late last year that saw him walk 25 batters in 34 innings (6.62 BB/9). After allowing just 12 home runs in Triple-A, Gonzalez was lit up for nine (2.38 HR/9) in the Majors."

-How has he done this year? Well, he has only started once and pitched in three games. So, the sample size is so small it is almost not worth looking at the numbers. He does have an ERA of 8.01. But, he also has an incredibly high BABIP of .479 and his FIP is 4.18. So, his ERA looks bad, but he probably has not pitched as bad as it may appear. His K/9 rate of 9.49 is almost Verlander-like. Of course, his BB/9 rate of 6.57 is almost Willis-like. So, we better try to work the count tonight. He throws a lot of curveballs and you know he is going to throw a bunch at Granderson and a couple of our other guys. We have to be patient against this guy. If we are, he will throw a lot of walks and make the A's fans want to pull there hair out. I'm all for that.

Gonzalez is a three-pitch pitcher who throws his curveball and changeup a combined 36% of the time. The remainder of the time, he throws his fastball. His velocity is pretty good as his average fastball comes in at roughly 91 MPH (so, on FSN tonight, some red flags should be raised when it says he is throwing 95-96 MPH). His best pitch is his curveball. His splits would certaily suggest hitting every lefty we have against him. They have a 1.532 OPS against him. Again, though, it is such a small sample size, we should not read much into that. In the minors, lefties hit a little better than right handed batters against him.

So, it will be interesting to see if Leyland follows the stats tonight and sends out more left handed batters than he did last night. More than anything, we need to work the pitch count tonight and not let this guy look like Randy Johnson. Patience, Tigers. Patience. That is the name of the game tonight. We do that and we can hit this guy around tonight.