How much longer can Porcello keep this up?

We have all heard the story about Porcello. He was considered, arguably, the best high school pitcher since Josh Beckett and the Tigers thanked their lucky stars that he fell to them because of signability concerns. After a good year at Lakeland where he posted an ERA below 3 and was widely regarded as a top 10 prospect heading into this season. The general consensus around the league was that Porcello would spend most, if not all, of this year in Erie to continue to refine his pitches. Instead, because of our lack of pitching depth, the Tigers pushed the 20 year old to the majors with the hopes that he could handle the pressure and deliver. So far, he has. He is 8-4 with a 3.55 ERA, and the Tigers have been very careful with his arm as he has yet to throw over 100 pitches.

The question, of course, is can he keep it up. Based on his peripheral stats, that answer would be no. Looking at the majority of the stats, he has been a league average pitcher thus far in the season. His K/9 rate of 5.03 is well below the league average of 6.88. His BB rate of 3.09 is above average, but his K/BB rate of 1.63 is below the league average of 1.93. In fact, it is the 8th worst rate in the AL amongst qualified starters. His HR/9 rate of 1.26 is also high as the league average is 1.04. He has a WHIP of 1.36, which is slightly above average (1.39). His FIP is 4.82, which is well below the league average of 4.32. In fact, of the 42 pitchers in the AL who qualify for these stats (b/c of a certain amount of starts) he has the 36th lowest FIP. According to this Pitch F/x data and analysis Porcello has one great pitch with his sinker, and then has several average pitches.

So, what explains his low ERA? Porcello has a BABIP of .280, compared to the league average of .300, and his LOB % is nearly 8% higher than the league average. So, Porcello appears to be helped out greatly by arguably the best defensive infield in the league, and the opposing batters struggling more than normal with runners on base. Will that continue? The latest projections by Zips have him finishing with a 4.48 ERA, nearly a run higher than he is currently allowing.

Based on his peripherals, which suggests that he is a league average pitcher other than his ERA, it appears that we might have to be prepared to see Porcello struggle a little bit more than he has in his seamless transition to the big leagues. Let's just hope that does not start tonight.