A statistical look at the Lions, Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Spartans and Wolverines

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Ben Gordon brings plenty to the Pistons

This is the first in a 3 part series where I will break down Ben Gordon, Charlie V., and then the Pistons organization and roster and how these two players will fit. In this post I will break down the $11 million man.

As the title suggests, Ben Gordon brings a lot to the Pistons. The problem is, all that he brings to the Pistons involves pros (lethal scorer) and cons (high turnover rate and not a plus defender). I will break all of this down and more in the following paragraphs.

The Contract

Gordon is reportedly getting $55 million for 5 years for an average of 11 a year. Based on the other salaries in the league, where does that put him in comparison for other starting SG or premiere SG?

The following are the players who will make less than Gordon next year (a couple of these guys are still on entry-level deals and are due big raises).
  • -Raja Bell
  • -Delonte West
  • -Antoine Wright
  • -JR Smith
  • -Stephen Jackson
  • -Eric Gordon
  • -OJ Mayo
  • -Keyon Dooling
  • -Rasual Butler
  • -Thabo Sefolosha
  • -Leonardo Barbosa
  • -Brandon Roy
  • -Ronnie Brewer
  • -Randy Foye
-Of these, Brandon Roy is due a huge raise. JR Smith will probably land a similar deal to what Gordon got. Eric Gordon, OJ Mayo and Randy Foye all have the potential to cash in. The following are two players who have signed similar deals to Ben Gordon:
  • Kevin Martin
  • Manu Ginobili
Ginobili will make slightly under $11 million next year and Martin will make just over $10 million before progressing to nearly $13 million in the coming years. So, how do they compare?

Totals

GlossaryCSVPRE ▪ Click column headers to sort
Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Manu Ginobili 2008-09 31 44 7 1181 223 491 .454 69 209 .330 168 190 .884 24 174 198 157 64 16 88 90 683
2 Ben Gordon 2008-09 25 82 76 2999 598 1315 .455 173 422 .410 330 382 .864 52 231 283 279 71 22 200 184 1699
3 Kevin Martin 2008-09 25 51 46 1947 341 811 .420 115 277 .415 457 527 .867 29 154 183 138 61 8 146 116 1254

Per Game

GlossaryCSVPRE ▪ Click column headers to sort
Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Manu Ginobili 2008-09 31 44 7 26.8 5.1 11.2 .454 1.6 4.8 .330 3.8 4.3 .884 0.5 4.0 4.5 3.6 1.5 0.4 2.0 2.0 15.5
2 Ben Gordon 2008-09 25 82 76 36.6 7.3 16.0 .455 2.1 5.1 .410 4.0 4.7 .864 0.6 2.8 3.5 3.4 0.9 0.3 2.4 2.2 20.7
3 Kevin Martin 2008-09 25 51 46 38.2 6.7 15.9 .420 2.3 5.4 .415 9.0 10.3 .867 0.6 3.0 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.2 2.9 2.3 24.6

Per 36 Minutes

GlossaryCSVPRE ▪ Click column headers to sort
Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Manu Ginobili 2008-09 31 44 7 1181 6.8 15.0 .454 2.1 6.4 .330 5.1 5.8 .884 0.7 5.3 6.0 4.8 2.0 0.5 2.7 2.7 20.8
2 Ben Gordon 2008-09 25 82 76 2999 7.2 15.8 .455 2.1 5.1 .410 4.0 4.6 .864 0.6 2.8 3.4 3.3 0.9 0.3 2.4 2.2 20.4
3 Kevin Martin 2008-09 25 51 46 1947 6.3 15.0 .420 2.1 5.1 .415 8.4 9.7 .867 0.5 2.8 3.4 2.6 1.1 0.1 2.7 2.1 23.2

Advanced

GlossaryCSVPRE ▪ Click column headers to sort
Rk Player Season Age G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS
1 Manu Ginobili 2008-09 31 44 1181 22.9 .594 .524 2.5 17.3 10.0 23.1 2.9 1.0 13.3 27.2 114 101 2.6 2.2 4.8
2 Ben Gordon 2008-09 25 82 2999 17.0 .573 .521 2.0 8.8 5.4 15.9 1.2 0.5 11.9 25.0 112 112 5.3 1.7 7.0
3 Kevin Martin 2008-09 25 51 1947 19.2 .601 .491 1.7 9.3 5.5 12.3 1.6 0.3 12.3 27.4 115 117 4.8 0.1 4.9

-First and foremost, Gordon does not compare favorably to Ginobili. If we are to believe that Gordon is supposed to be a super sub like Ginobili, and is getting paid like that, then Gordon is going to have to develop into more of a complete player to earn that salary. Ginobili is a better scorer, passer and rebounder and an integral part of 3 championship runs. Other than injury concerns, Ginobili is a vastly superior player. The hope, I guess, is for Gordon to continue to develop into that type of player off the bench.
-Again, despite some injury concerns, Martin is a superior player to Gordon in nearly all aspects of the game as evidenced by the numbers. Based on this, it would appear that this is a slight overpayment and that Gordon is not worth more than $10 million a year.

-The following are the SG due more than Gordon next year.
  1. -Ray Allen
  2. -Joe Johnson
  3. -Kobe Bryant
  4. -Wade
  5. -Michael Redd
  6. -Larry Hughes
  7. -Vince Carter
  8. -Rip Hamilton
-So, to summarize, there are 8 SG who have higher contracts than Gordon and two players with salary amounts within $1 million of what Gordon will earn. Ray Allen, Hughes and Carter will not be worth more than 10 million at their next contract negotiation. Roy, Mayo and maybe JR Smith will take their spots. So, basically, a top 10 SG will get upwards of $10 million or more a year. Is Gordon a top 10 SG and is he of the caliber of Ginobili or Kevin Martin? I think this is an overpayment and 5 years for $45 million would be a better deal.

-Regardless, he is here and he is a Piston. So, who is Ben Gordon and what type of player is he?

Bio
Gordon stayed at U Conn for three years and was apart of their championship team in 2004 with Emeka Okafor. After declaring early for the draft he was selected with the 3rd pick in the NBA draft by the Bulls. In his rookie season he came into the league averaging 15 points in 24 minutes a game and was named to the All Rookie team and the Sixth Man of the Year. Unfortunately, his game has not developed as many would have hoped since then.

The next three seasons he was a part-time starter and averaged between 31-33 minutes a season and 17-21 points a game. His best season to date was in 2007 when he had career highs in PER, Pts and assists. Following this season, he rejected a 5 year/$50 million dollar deal from the Bulls and his value as a player has appeared to fallen off the past 2 seasons.

This past season Gordon was given the reins at the full time starter for the first time in Chicago. He averaged nearly 37 minutes a game and started 76 games. He had 20.7 points, 3.4 assists and 3.5 rebounds a game and a PER of 17.0. This postseason he averaged 24.3 points a game against the Celtics.

Shooting/Scoring
This is where Gordon makes his money. He ranks in the top 10 among SG in 3 point shooting, FG % and Free Throw Pct, and is top 10 among SG in Pts per game. Gordon is hands down one of the best shooters in the league from the SG spot. In terms of shot selection, 80% of his shots are jump shots and he draws fouls at a slightly better rate than Prince, so he does not go to the lane much. And, when the stakes are at their highest, he shoots jumps shots 91% of the time in "clutch time" (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points). So, that is something to keep an eye on. Another thing to keep an eye on is that Gordon takes 45% of his shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. There is a good chance that he will make you scratch your head sometimes with his shot selection. On the plus side, his usage rating of 23.3 is reasonable, and despite the perception that he dominates the ball, the numbers do not bear that out. He is not in the top 10 for usage rate for SG. To recap:

  • A top 10 shooter by any measure among other SG and a top 10 scorer
  • Rarely drives to the hoop, especially in crunch time
  • Prone to taking shots early in the shot clock

Rebounding
-
Gordon had a rebounding rating of 9.7. Hamilton had a rebounding rate of 9.5 so Gordon is roughly the same caliber of a rebounder as Hamilton is. In other words, rebounding is not his strong suit and he is probably only good for about 3 a game. He is an average rebounder for his position.

Passing
-Gordon had a passer rating of 4.8 last year and his 3.4 assists a game both put him in the middle of the pack for SG. But, his 2.4 turnovers a game and his assist/turnover ratio of 1.40 is third worst among SG. An average passer with poor decision making abilities.

Defense
-I walked into my evaluation of Ben Gordon with the assumption that he was a terrible defensive player. After looking at the numbers though, I think a lot of my beliefs were due to misconceptions thrown out there by the media and the like. The SG on the opposing team only averaged a PER of 15.4 (which is basically a league average number). And, comparing his numbers to opposing SG bears that out. Based on the production of the opposing SG last year, Gordon was more productive defensively than Vince Carter, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Martin and Brandon Roy. And, his defenive PER is within 1 of what Manu Ginobili allowed and Kobe Bryant, who is supposedly a first team All NBA defender. Now, this is not to say that he is a great defender. He is not. He is undersized and does not have a great wingspan. He also ranked 24th in the league in steals at the SG spot. But, he does have speed and is probably one of the stronger SG in the game. I am simply arguing that the numbers would suggest that he is an average to slightly below average defender, and will not hurt us defensively as much as some assume. Perception does not always match reality and I will have a lengthy post breaking down his defense in comparison to his peers in the near future. You will be surprised with the results.

Other important information
-
Gordon had a Roland Rating of +3.3, and the Bulls were +2.7 when he was on the court compared to when he was off the court. So, he was a plus player for the Bulls last year. His Roland Rating was 13th among SG in the NBA.

Analysis
-
A top 10 SG in this league is worth $10 million+. Based on the numbers I have presented, he is getting a slight overpayment and is probably not worth an average of $11 million a year. For next season, he is going to make $9 million. At this point in his career, that is what he should be making on a per year basis. He is without a doubt a top 10 shooter/pure scorer at the SG position. He is an average rebounder for his position and he has one of the worst turnover ratios for SG. So, offensively, he will excite us with some great shooting and annoy us with poor decision making with his passing and with some of his shot selections. Defensively, despite the perception that he is a terrible defender, the numbers would suggest that he is just slightly below average. In short, this is what we are getting:

  • A pure scorer and shooter
  • Average rebounder for his position
  • Below-average when passing, and prone to mistakes
  • Average to slightly below average defender

-Shortly, I will have a post up about Charlie V and then in another separate post, I will discuss how the Pistons team currently constructed would do next season (hint, we need a big man). And, I will break down some of the potential big men we may be targeting.


No comments: