A statistical look at the Lions, Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Spartans and Wolverines

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Sometimes life happens and tonight, baseball happened

Over the course of a 162 game season a lot of wins and a lot of losses occur. Some are beyond frustrating and painful (like the game Zumaya blew against the Yankees). Some wins stand out more so than others (like the win over the Twins in extra, extra innings). On the other hand, a lot of games blend together and are forgotten. In a way, I compare it to dating. Some dates stand out as being great. Others stand out because either the girl broke up with you or you broke up with the girlfriend. On the other hand, the 17th date I went on with a girl I dated in high school is not something I will remember. Over time, dates like that blend together. For me, the Tigers game tonight was one of those games.

Why is that exactly? Am I just numb to what is developing into a full-blown below average offense? I don't think so. Felix Hernandez is one of top 10 pitchers in MLB, and Seattle's bullpen tonight featured some nasty, nasty stuff. Sometimes, the opposing pitchers are just better. Tonight was one of those nights. Am I just accepting the fact that this is not a championship contending club? No. Our offense this year is very similar to the offense we featured in 2006 that was good enough to reach the World Series. OBP is the exact same at .329, and wRAA is the exact same at 5. Our wOBA this year is .330 compared to .332 in 2006. Our OPS is .752 this year, and it was .777 in 2006. If it was good enough then...

Ok. So, our offense compares to 2006. And, we know our defense does after putting together another great performance tonight. (Just for a reference point: we are 3rd in the AL in UZR this year and we were second in UZR in 2006). How about our pitching? Well, in 2006 we had a FIP of 4.32. This year, we have a FIP of 4.39. The one thing that is holding our overall pitching staff back in comparison to that year is a dependable starting pitching staff. That year we had a top 4 as good as any in the game. This year we have a top 2 as good as any in the game, but Porcello, Galaragga and a mixture of pitchers we have thrown in the #5 slot have been very up and down (although, I do like Luke French). Hence, in order to continue to resemble that 2006 team, we need Galaragga and one of Porcello or French or some other unknown pitcher to step up. For 5 straight outings now, Armando has done that. Tonight he was not perfect and was a little lucky. He walked 4 batters, only struck out 3 and had 12 flyball outs. Defying baseball odds he ended with just 1 hit. And, Seattle is a terrible offense. Still, though, Armando did his job and is quietly turning into exactly what we need: a dependable back of the rotation starter who can eat innings and give us a chance to win. To me, that development far outweighs the loss tonight.

Going forward, we probably need another bat. Guillen might be that guy. Our bullpen is rounding into form with Lyon, Seay and Ni earning more time and Rodney providing stability as the closer. We also may have found a dependable pitcher in Armando Galaragga. If Porcello or French can handle the pressure of the second half as rookies and become our 4th dependable pitcher, then I like our chances.

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