A statistical look at the Lions, Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Spartans and Wolverines

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Loss of Zumaya should be golden opportunity for Bobby Seay

In sports, injuries happen. That much is obvious. What follows an injury to a player is one of my favorite things about sports... an injury to one player often gives an opportunity for another player to prove that they are worth more to the team than originally thought. What that player does with that opportunity defines a lot about them. If they perform well in the expanded role, then more expectations and responsibility will be placed on their shoulders. If they fail in their new role, they often drop back into obscurity and resume with their lesser role that they previously held. With Zumaya's injury , I imagine that Brandon Lyon will pick up a lot of his playing time. He has been a closer in the past and has pitched in pressure packed moments. In addition to Lyon, it is also time to take the kids gloves off of Bobby Seay and let him become more than a situational lefty.

One of the concerns with using a lefty in a late inning role is the threat that a right handed batter will pose. This season, though, right handed batters have struggled mightily against the lefty. In 39 PA's against right handed batters, Seay has issued 3 walks, 5 singles and just one extra base hit (a double). Their stat line against him goes like this... .167/.220/.194. That is a .414 OPS. Lefties only have a .564 OPS against him, so it is not like he has dramatic reverse splits.

How good has Seay been recently? In his last 20 appearances, he has not allowed a run. How good has he been this season? He has the 5th best FIP (2.56) for all qualified relievers in the AL. The guys he is between are Andrew Bailey and David Aardsma, two strikeout kings who have been widely regarded as two of the best relievers in MLB this season. He even has a better FIP than Mariano Rivera. He is one of just seven qualified relievers to not allow a HR this season. In addition to not allowing a home run all year, he also is allowing line drives at an all time low (14.6%). His 1.00 WHIP is 5th best in the AL. He is tied for 1st in holds in the AL with Matt Guerrier and Hideki Okajima.

Seay also has the talent to succeed in such a role. He was once a 1st round pick and has 2 plus pitches with a 91 MPH fastball that he throws for strikes and a good slider. It is clear that he has more than deserved this proposed promotion. It is certainly not a guarantee that he will succeed. He has never really been put in this situation before. And yet, at 31 years of age, it is time to see what Seay is made of. Can he handle the pressure of throwing against a Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau or Jermain Dye in the 8th inning of a 1 run game? Will he continue to keep a good K/BB ratio as the spotlight on him becomes greater? These questions and many more surrounding Seay are unknowns. What is known, however, is that he deserves this opportunity to sink or swim. FWIW, I think he will swim quite well.

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