Previewing the Texas Rangers

The story the past couple of years about the Texas Rangers is that they are usually a great offensive team with next to nothing in the pitching department. This season, b/c of injuries and some unexpected slumps for some players, the Rangers are roughly an average offense in the AL. As usual, the pitching staff has been below average. Somehow, they have managed to post a 54-42 record and are just 3.5 games back of the Angels in their division. Lets break it all down...

Offense

- The Rangers rank 8th in the AL in wOBA, OPS and runs created. Digging deeper into the numbers, we are able to get a better grasp of the type of offense they are. Essentially, they are free swingers who can mash. The Rangers are 2nd to the Yankees in slugging percentage, and tied for first with the Yankees in ISO at .194. On the other hand, the Rangers rank last in BB/K and 3rd to last in OBP. So, they are not that patient at the plate but they make up for that with a power that is nearly unmatched in MLB. Lately, though, the Rangers have not shown the promise that one might expect with that lineup. Their OPS+ in June was only 84, and their OPS+ in July is currently at 96. Both are below average and well below what they posted in May and April. It is also interesting to note that their OPS+ goes down below average between the 7th and 9th inning.

As far as the splits go, the Rangers have a higher OPS+ against right handed pitching. They also absolutely mash finesse pitching (the Yankees are the exact opposite) to the tune of a 136 OPS+. They are only league average against power pitchers so that does set up well for Justin Verlander. Luke French, though, might be in some trouble tonight.

3B Michael Young, RF Nelson Cruz and 2B Ian Kinsler are all above average hitters at their position. CF Josh Hamilton would be as well but he has struggled mightily with injuries this year. They are receiving well below average offensive production from 1B (Blalock and Davis), and below average production from catcher (Saltamacchia) and SS (Elvis Andrus).

Bullpen

-I will break down the 3 starting pitchers they have going in this series in a separate post, so I will just focus on their bullpen in this installment. Based on the numbers, the Rangers have an average bullpen. They rank 9th in the AL in FIP, 10th in K/BB and 7th in HR/9. One thing going in their favor is ranking first in WPA (win probability added) at 6.19. As a reference point, the Red Sox rank second in that stat.

A big reason for that WPA stat is b/c of their closer, Frank Francisco. He has a 3.60 FIP, 3.23 tRA, and a 4.00 K/BB ratio this season. On the other hand, his month of July has been awful. He is sporting a 7.26 FIP this month and a 5.40 BB/9 ratio. Also in their bullpen, Darren O'Day and C.J. Wilson have been two of the best relievers in the AL. O'Day is a 27 year old right handed pitcher who is built at 6'4, 225. He came over from the Mets this season and has posted a 1.75 ERA, 3.89 K/BB ratio, 0.75 HR/9, 3.28 FIP and 3.39 tRA in 41 appearances. It does not get much better than that for a middle reliever. Meanwhile, C.J. Wilson is also one of the best lefty relievers in the game. In 43 appearances, he has a 2.86 ERA, 2.22 K/BB, 0.61 HR/9, 3.56 FIP and a 3.52 tRA. Again, that is some good stuff. They will be difficult to get to late in a game so it would behoove the Tigers to get up on the Rangers early. Other bullpen arms for the Rangers include the veterans Jason Jennings, Eddie Guardado and our old pal, Jason Grilli. All 3 have been inconsistent this year. Grilli and Guardado have not allowed an ER yet this month, though.

Defense

-Overall, the Rangers have a very good defense and that has probably been one of the main reasons why they have a very good record despite an average offense, slightly below average bullpen and a starting rotation that scares no one. They currently are 4th in the AL in UZR at 22.4 (the Tigers are 3rd). In the infield, they have 3 plus defenders in 1B Hank Blalock, 2B Ian Kinsler and SS Elvis Andrus (he could be the winner of multiple Gold Gloves in his career). On the other hand, Michael Young is arguably the worst defender at 3B in the AL with a -10.5 UZR. The ageless Omar Vizquel, my generations version of Ozzie Smith, is still providing sick defense as one of the best backup infielders in baseball. In the outfield, Nelson Cruz might win a Gold Glove in RF and Josh Hamilton has produced a nice defensive season when healthy. The platoon they have in LF with David Murphy and Marlon Byrd has been below average this season. Saltamacchia is a roughly average catcher defensively and throws out runners at 23.6 % (Laird throws out runners at a 42% clip).

Summary:

• They have one of the best power offenses in baseball who feasts on finesse pitchers.
• Their offense is not that patient and should strike out a lot without taking too many walks.
• C.J. Wilson and Darren O'Day have been two of the best middle relievers in the AL and Frank Francisco has been a good closer this season despite a very bad July.
• Jason Grilli pitches for them
• They have a very good defense with plus defenders at 5 positions.