A statistical look at the Lions, Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Spartans and Wolverines

Friday, July 3, 2009

Game 79: Are some games truly more important than others?

I have never believed that there were ever "big" games in a 162 game season. I have never believed that momentum ever truly swung with one game. A baseball season is a marathon like no other professional sports season. There are so many peaks and valleys that it is hard to get too high or too low during any of it. Just look at all of the storylines we have had in 79 games:
  • Ordonez, two seasons removed from a run to the MVP award, is on the verge of being released.
  • Willis still cannot find the strike zone and is on the DL for probably the rest of the year.
  • Edwin Jackson has been one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball a year after being a #5 starter for the Rays.
  • Verlander has had a bounce back season to All Star form
  • Brandon Inge is having a career season and should make the All Star team
  • We have nearly $50 million tied up to players who will make no positive contribution to us this year (Sheff, Robertson, Bondo and Willis) and we are still in the thick of the division race
  • Jim Leyland was given a two year extension

And, I could give many, many more story lines than those. So, I do find it hard to say that this win in 16 innings is a "big" win. A "big" win for me does not happen in the regular season in the NBA, NHL or MLB regular season unless we are in the final weeks of the season. But, what I have always thought is that games like these (tough, close games that you pull out) do add up. If a team loses a number of close games, then it starts to wear on them as the season progresses. Similarily, if a team wins a lot of close games, I have always felt that that team develops a sort of belief that they will somehow come back and win that game.

If the Tigers had struggled winning close games all year, then I'm not sure if one win would turn that around. But, the Tigers are 25-11 in games decided by one or two runs. I have always held the opinion that at some point stats like that stop becoming a coincidence and instead speak to that "it" factor that some teams have. Regardless what happens tomorrow or Sunday, I like this team. Some players need to get the broom. Sure. But, I like this team a lot. We might have another special run to the postseason in front of us, and games like this one and the Raburn walk off against the Cubs a week or two back give me that hope. We will see, but this team has got to love being in close games and they must have a world of confidence in games like that. Imo, that helps us an awful lot and gives us an advantage over a team who has struggled in close games.

As far as the game itself...

-Slowey was basically throwing us batting practice. Thames crushed a home run. Josh Anderson even got a triple. This is the 4th start in his last 5 where Slowey struggled. It is nice to see the Twins rotation (which I am really not impressed with) start to to get beat up a little.

-Any win over the Twins is important. Any win over a team in our division is important. This game would have been especially hard to take after we blew a six run lead. Miner blew it with one bad inning and then our bats would completely cold. Thankfully, R.A. Dickey's knuckelball was extremely hittable tonight. He had a 0.66 ERA in June.

-Lucas French went 4.2 innings with 2 ER, 6 hits, 2 BB and 3 SO's. He was pulled after just 2 outs in the fourth inning and replaced by Zach Miner. He ended up only throwing 81 pitches, and put 50 of them in for strikes. They put some good swings on him and Cuddyer, specifically, was really putting some good cuts on the ball against him. His stuff was pretty much what we expected. Upper 80's on the fastball and a decent slider that got him a couple SO's. Is he the answer in the back of the rotation? Too early to say, and his first start was not better than Figaro's. But, he did battle pretty well and I was especially impressed when he only allowed 1 run in the 3rd inning despite being in quite the jam. At the very least, French has earned another start.

-In Zach Miner's previous 15 innings of relief work, he allowed 2 ER. Tonight, he allowed 5 ER in 0.2 IP. To put it bluntly, he was awful. He got behind hitters and got the ball up in the zone too much. The interesting thing about Miner is that he is prone to very bad outings like this. On June 3rd, for example, he allowed 4 ER in 0.1 IP against Boston and on April 13th he allowed 8 ER in 3.1 IP against the White Sox. Hence, his ERA looks very bad at 4.98 even though the majority of his outings are pretty good. He just has to cut down on those type of outings, though.

-Ni went up against Mauer and Morneau and got them both out. What else can you say? Good job, kid.

-Lyon and Seay, as usual, got the job done. Lyon did allow two hits and Seay nearly allowed a home run to Mauer, but they continue to impress in the back end of our bullpen.

-This was one of the best performances of Joel Zumaya's career. He struck out four batters, had great command and great stuff. 53 pitches and he still struck out Cuddyer with the game on the line? Unbelievable.

-And while we are on the topic of Zumaya, how about the decision by Leyland to not only keep him in despite throwing over 50 pitches but to also walk Mauer and Morneau to make the bases loaded. That shows a tremendous amount of respect for the M & M boys, and a lot of confidence in Zumaya. He delivered and for once it is definitely time to give Leyland credit for making a decision that not a lot of managers would have had the guts to make.

-Rodney was also brilliant tonight. 2 IP with a SO and no baserunners. Tough as nails tonight when we needed him to be.

-Dolsi got two chances to close the game for us, and thank goodness he finally did. 64 pitches for him tonight, 2 ER, 4 hits an error, and he struggled with the signs that Laird was giving him. I was not impressed with his stuff tonight, but he did manage to outperform R.A. Dickey and that is all that matters. Does he get demoted to Toledo to help shore up our tired bullpen?

Position player performances:

Granderson- 2 hits, 2 runs and two BB. I will take that .500 OBP from my leadoff hitter all day, everyday.
Polanco- Prior to tonight, he had two games all year in which he struck out twice. Tonight, he struck out three times. Then he gets hit below the belt on a foul ball, and singles home a run in the 14th inning on the very next pitch. Not a lot of guys could do that. Also, not very many guys would be able to get another clutch RBI in the 16th inning. Quite a performance by Polanco tonight.
Cabrera- He went 1 for 8 with a near home run off the wall that just went for a double. He continues to make nice plays at 1st base. He has obviously had much better days at the plate.
Thames- He is what he is: sometimes he will run into a home run (like he did in the 3rd inning) and most of the time he will not do much else. He went 2 for 5 before Raburn took his spot.
Raburn- He got doubled up after Ordonez hit a line shot to the second baseman. Other than that, though, he got 2 hits and a big RBI in the 16th inning.
Don Kelly- One hit tonight before being replaced by Ordonez. I have to wonder how long it will take for him or Josh Anderson to be replaced by a more deserving OF like Clete Thomas.
Ordonez- I said he had to step up his production this weekend, and he did get a big RBI knock in the 16th inning. That is step one. Now, perform on Saturday and Sunday.
Inge- 1 for 6 but he did get on base with 2 HBP.
Josh Anderson- He got a triple for us. He also made a horrendous play in the outfield that contributed to two of their runs, and continues to have weak at-bats. He or Kelly needs to go.
Laird- This has got to be a tough game for a catcher. He battled through the extra innings and hit a HR. With continued rest b/c of the emergence of Dusty Ryan, I think he might be able to continue this hitting into the second half of the season and not tire out.
Santiago- 1 for 6 at the plate. Bad night for him despite a favorable pitching matchup against Slowey.

-Edwin Jackson going for us tomorrow against Francisco Liriano. Jackson needs to go at least 7 innings and probably even more than that. Our bullpen is gassed and only Ni, Seay, Miner, Lyon and Rodney are available. And, Leyland would prefer to rest some of those guys. If Jackson has a complete game in him, it would be a great time to bring it out for tomorrow.

-Finally, here is the minor league recap provided to us by Bill at The Detroit Tigers Weblog.

No comments: