Game 78 preview: Verlander looks to mow down A's

As I continue to mention, the A's have arguably the worst offense in MLB. Today, we have a guy going to the mound who has some of the best pure stuff in baseball and has been one of the top 10 pitchers in the AL as he marches toward an appearance on the AL All Star team. It sounds like a mismatch, especially with some of the other numbers I am about to throw out, but Verlander has struggled on the road this year. On the road he has a 4.88 ERA and batters are hitting .278 against him. On the other hand, at home he has a 1.11 ERA and opposing batters are only hitting .162 against him. Interestingly, he only has two more BB on the road than at home and he has pitched 22 more innings on the road this year. So, it is not his control that is lacking on the road. Something else appears to be happening.

Still, though, Verlander has been great this year. He has never been a great second half pitcher, but I still expect his 3.40 ERA to drop as the year progresses. He has the best K/9 rate in MLB at 10.80 and his BB/9 rate of 2.96 is not too bad for a power pitcher like himself. His HR/9 rate of 0.61 and his WHIP of 1.20 is great. Now, for the real good news. His FIP of 2.60 is 5th in MLB and right up there with Roy Halladay. Even better news... Verlander has had a bit of bad luck this year as his BABIP is at .331 (the league average is around .300). Now, because of the way he pitches, he is usually going to have a higher BABIP than most pitchers do. But, that should still drop back a little as the year moves on. He also has the 4th highest WAR in MLB at 3.8. Just looking at his ERA does not do him justice.

Verlander is basically a three-pitch pitcher who has one of the best fastballs in MLB. His curveball is also a plus pitch, while his changeup has only been average this year. After 2 of 3 his previous starts have not gone as planned, facing the A's offense might be what he needs to reverse his troubles on the road and to propel him into the second half of the season.

-Opposing Verlander today will be Dallas Braden. Braden has a 3.26 ERA in 99 IP, and has a 3.52 FIP and .303 BABIP. So, he looks pretty legit and the 25 year old lefty has improved every single season he has been in the majors. The book on Braden is that he does not strike out a ton of batters and he does not walk a lot, either. He is a pretty steady pitcher and his HR/9 rate of 0.63 is very good. He is also great against left handed batters. They have an OPS of .465 against him this year, while right handed batters have an OPS of .754. I would imagine that Granderson would be our only lefty in the lineup. This guy kills left handed batters.

His groundball/flyball ratio is similar to Verlander's at 0.86. So, he should not induce a lot of ground balls as he is a flyball pitcher. He is a 4-pitch pitcher with a fastball, slider, cutter and changeup. He throws his fastball 56 % of the time, and backs that up with a changeup 21% of the time. His slider and cutter make up the remaining percentage with his slider thrown slighly more than his cutter. According to fangraphs, he has three plus pitches with his changeup being his best pitch. (It appears to be one of the 5 to 10 changeups this year in MLB among starters). His fastball is his only negative pitch and that might have to do with his lack of velocity. His fastball only comes in at an average of 88 MPH and his changeup goes down to 73 MPH.

S0, Braden is a flyball pitcher with a great changeup who will not walk many batters (his walk rate is similar to Edwin Jackson) or strike too many out. He also is a terror for left handed batters to face. So, we should expect a lot of right handed batters for us today. He is going to try and get us on a lot of changeups today, and Inge and Polanco are our two best changeup hitters. With Inge probably getting the day off, look for Polanco to potentially have a good day. On May 16th this year, he allowed 9 hits and 6 ER in 5 innings against us. Polanco, Cabrera and Raburn had big days during our 9-1 win. Braden is a good pitcher but we have got to him before, and we can do it again.

Let's take this series and enjoy the off day tomorrow.