Game 81 preview: Tigers look to take series from the Twins

On May 5th, Rick Porcello had his best game as a Tiger going 7 strong innings without allowing a run. His opponent? The lovely Minnesota Twins. A repeat performance would be greatly appreciated, thank you very much. If you haven't read my concerns about Porcello, here is the post I made prior to his last start when he allowed 5 ER in 4.1 IP against the worst offensive team in the AL in the Oakland Athletics. So, I am still concerned about Rick but he has had success against Minnesota in the past and he actually has a lower ERA on the road than he does at Comerica Park. The key for him? Forget the month of June and kick ass in July like he knows he can.

The opposing pitcher today will be Nick Blackburn, the "ace" of the Twins staff so far. He has a 3.10 ERA, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that his ERA will go up by about a run before the season ends. He has a slightly above average FIP and WHIP with a 4.07 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP. The book on Blackburn is that he does not strike people out or walk batters. He has a K/9 rate of 3.77. That is incredibly low. The league average is 6.87. So, if we are swinging and missing tomorrow, it will not be because of anything Blackburn brings. On the plus side for him, he has good control and rarely walks batters. His BB/9 rate of 2.26 is very good. He also does not allow a lot of home runs as his 0.75 HR/9 rate would suggest.

He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.21, so he is a groundball pitcher. He throws his fastball at an average of 90 MPH and uses his fastball roughly 62% of the time. His next two most common pitches are his cutter and curveball. According to Fan Graphs, his only plus pitch is his cutter. But, his other pitches are average and he does not really have a bad pitch that has been giving him trouble this season. His splits suggest that he is a terror against right handed batters and that lefties can have their way with him. Lefties have a .301/.350/.487 stat line against him. Right handed batters hit .231/.268.297 against him. So, needless to say, we should have a couple lefties in the lineup. More than anything, this is a matchup that really favors Curtis Granderson, especially because he hits the cutter better than anyone else on our team. Look for his slump to end today if the numbers hold true.

One not so encouraging sign for us is that his ERA has dropped in each month and he has pitched better as the season has wore on. In his last 10 starts, he has gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 ER.

Oh, but how about that start before the streak began? It was May 5th against the Tigers, and we lit him up for the tune of 6 ER in 3.1 IP. Cabrera, Granderson, Ordonez and Satiago all have 5+ AB against him and an OPS over 1.000. It goes without saying that they should all be in the lineup today.

Let's have a repeat of May 5th and take this series.