Jackson's ERA has risen each month (2.25 in April, 2.34 in May and 2.91 in June) so there is some concern entering this start and heading into the second half of the season. But, lets not kid ourselves. Jackson has been remarkable this year and better be an All Star this year. How good has he been? Lefties have an OPS of .542 and right handed batters have an OPS of .675 against him. So, there is really no favorable matchup against him. His 2.49 ERA ranks second in the AL and he has the best WHIP in the league at 1.04. He is currently 9th in innings pitched at 108 innings. Right now, he is on pace to go well over 200 innings so that is something to watch as his workload increases.
Some of his other numbers do suggest that his ERA should rise a little bit as the season wears on. He has a good FIP of 3.18 (11th in MLB) but his BABIP of .258 is very low and might not stay at that rate all year. His K/9 rate of 6.98 is slightly above league average, but he has kept his walks down and his K/BB rate of 2.90 is very good. Even better is his HR/9 rate of 0.58 and his opponent batting average is .216 (4th lowest in MLB).
Jackson is a groundball power pitcher with an electric fastball that averages 94.5 MPH. He is basically a two pitch pitcher with two plus, plus pitches in his fastball and slider. He will sometimes mix in a curve or changeup, as well.
In his last start against the Twins, he allowed 5 ER in 6 innings in a 7-2 loss. Most of that damage came in the 7th inning where Jackson failed to record an out.
Jackson's opposing pitcher in that first battle is also the opposing pitcher against us today in Francisco Liriano. Blessed with a golden arm that showed it in 2006 (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 10.71 K/9) he has since failed to recover that incredible form following surgery that knocked him out for all of 2007.
This year, Liriano is 4-8 with a 5.62 ERA, 4.53 FIP and 1.52 WHIP. His K/9 rate of 8.03 is still good but it is his struggles with his command that continues to ail him. His BB/9 rate of 4.22 is well above league average and his K/BB rate of 1.90 is below league average. He will get some strikeouts against us, but like Gio Gonzalez for Oakland, he will also put us on base with BB if we are patient. Liriano has a HR/9 rate of 1.20, which is below average for a starting pitcher. He does have a BABIP of .322 so some of his struggles could be contributed to bad luck.
He has a GB/FB ratio of 1.10, so we should expect to see more fly balls to come off our bats today. He is a 3 pitch pitcher with a 91.6 MPH fastball and a very good slider that comes in at 86 MPH. His changeup is also considered a plus pitch. More than anything, it has been his struggles with his fastball that have hurt him this year. That pitch is valued as a -18.0 by Fan Graphs. As far as his splits go, Liriano struggles much more against right handed batters than lefties. Right handed batters hit .284/.356/.504 against him compared to .232/.337/.305 against lefties. So, we should expect to see Ordonez and Everett back in the lineup today. Granderson has K'd 10 times against him in his career so that is something to be careful of today for Curtis.
Of late, Liriano has pitched well. He had a 3.77 ERA in June without a bad start sprinkled in there. Interestingly, he forced more groundballs than flyballs in his June starts. His BB/9 rate for that month was still over 4, though. It is clear that he is still struggling with his command even as his stuff appears to be getting back to what it once was.
Cabrera and Inge both match up very well with Liriano (but who doesn't Cabrera match up well with?) They are our two best fastball hitters and are both right handed. Liriano might want to pitch around Cabrera, at the very least. In his last start against us, Cabrera did homer off Liriano but he mostly shut everyone else down by going 7 innings and only allowing 2 ER.
After last night's game, I'm not sure how this one will even come close to matching it. But, another win again against the Twins would still probably feel just as sweet.
So, some things to look out for today...
- Will the Tigers show patience against Liriano and get BB?
- Will Liriano continue to pitch as well as he did in June?
- Can Edwin Jackson give our bullpen a much needed rest by giving us 7 to 8 quality innings?
- Will Jackson's struggles continue against the Twins?
- Granderson has had a tough time against Liriano in his career and Cabrera and Inge should have a favorable matchup. Will these hold true today?
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