After tearing up Garrett Olson last night, the Tigers welcome Felix Hernandez into Comerica Park. Good luck with that? Well, lets look at the numbers...
King Felix has been a top 10 pitcher in MLB this season. He has a 2.51 ERA (5th in MLB) and the peripheral numbers that suggest that this season has been no fluke. He also sports a 2.83 FIP (7th in MLB) and a near-average BABIP of 2.96. Similarly, his 1.12 WHIP (9th in MLB) and 0.54 HR/9 (9th in MLB) ratio is exceptional. He also strikes out batters at nearly a batter an inning, and has a K/BB ratio of 3.49 (15th in MLB). To top it off, he has a WAR of 4.2 (7th in MLB). Notice a trend here? The guy is top 15 in every stat. He is a lethal pitcher that is on the same level as Greinke, Halladay and Verlander, etc. Just as a fan of the game, tonight should be fun watching this guy pitch.
Hernandez has a GB/FB ratio at 1.60, which is actually the lowest of his career. So, he is a guy who can induce a lot of groundouts and can get the strikeout. Nothing better than that. He also sports 4 plus pitches according to Fan Graphs. His fastball averages between 94-95 MPH and is the 8th best fastball this season. After dropping 95 MPH on a batter, he then can throw a changeup at 89 MPH that is also one of the top 10 changeups in the game. A plus slider and slightly above average curveball round out his pitchers.
He sports traditional splits as lefties hit him better than right handers would. Still, lefties only have an OPS of .665 against him. This guy is dynamite regardless who is coming to the plate. That is especially true in his last 10 starts. 9 of those 10 starts lasted at least 7 innings (and in the one that didn't he threw 6.2 innings) and he has a 1.314 ERA during this stretch. So, we are not exactly catching him at a good time. Additionally, he has an ERA of 1.97 on the road.
We have 7 batters on our team with at least 10 AB's against Hernandez. Granderson, Polanco and Laird each have an OPS of at least .800 against him. Grandy, in particular, has been great against Hernandez. He has a stat line of .444/.444/ .667 against the King. That is not particularly surprising as Laird and Grandy are two of our best changeup hitters. Look out for Ryan Raburn, as well (assuming he plays). He is a plus fastball and changeup pitcher. He might get a lucky shot off Hernandez tonight.
Going for the Tigers tonight is Armando Galaragga. His last 4 starts are "good enough" starts for a bottom of the rotation starter. He has gone no fewer than 6 innings and allowed no more than 4 runs. Tonight, more of the same is needed. We need him to eat some innings and keep the ER down to roughly 3-4 runs. Armando has really started to use his changeup a lot more recently, but still is overwhelmingly a fastball-slider pitcher. According to Fan Graphs, his slider and changup have both been plus pitches. His fastball, on the other hand, has been disastorous with a pitch type value of -18.5. His K/BB ratio of 1.51 is still too low, and his FIP of 5.36 leaves much to be desired.
On the plus side, I guess, is that Galaragga is relatively new to Seattle. Only one batter (Franklin Gutierrez) has more than 3 AB's against him. And, he's not playing tonight. Lefties rake Galaragga to a tune of a .944 OPS, so we should see a heavy lefty lineup for Seattle tonight. Specifically, Russell Branyan, a lefty, is one to watch because he is a plus, plus fastball hitter. So too is Ichiro.
All in all, this is why I love baseball. On paper, Hernandez should take care of us tonight. He has been lethal his last 10 starts, has some of the best natural stuff in baseball, our offense has been anemic, and we have a guy who is basically a #5 starter going for us. But, the games are not played on paper and random events happen. Lets make one happen tonight.
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