Know the enemy: AJ Burnett

After signing a lucrative contract to be Robin to Sabathia's Batman, Burnett has been a little bit of a disappointment thus far. He does have a 3.77 ERA but his peripheral numbers suggest a fall is coming in the second half. He has a 4.55 FIP and a LOB % that is reasonably high at 79%. He continues to strike out a lot of batters but his command has really slipped this year. As a result, his K/BB ratio of 1.91 is his worst since 2003. Likewise, his 1.38 WHIP is his worst total since 2003. What has been the difference? For the first time since 2002, his GB/FB ratio is under 1.50. This year, it sits at 0.98. Thus far, gone is the pitcher who could strike out at a near 9.00 K/9 ratio AND induce ground balls.

Burnett, though, is still a flame thrower. His average fastball velocity is 94.2 MPH. He is basically a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball that has been beaten up this year and a curveball that is truly one of the best in the game. Expect to see the curve a lot tonight when he needs a punchout. Not surprisingly, when a player swings at a ball outside the strike zone against Burnett, they usually come up empty. His O-contact % of 50.5% is outstanding.

According to his splits, right handers have hit better off Burnett this year. Right handed batters have a .785 OPS compared to a .689 OPS for lefties. He has been on a bit of a roll lately, as well. He had a 2.10 ERA in June and has a 2.70 ERA this month after shutting down the Twins in his last start.

Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge and Gerald Laird have an OPS above 1.000 against him. Polanco and Granderson, meanwhile, have particularly struggled against Burnett. Specifically, Grandy has 1 hit in 11 tries against him. Cabrera and Thames are our best curveball hitters and are both right handed, so they could have a favorable matchup against Burnett.