A statistical look at the Lions, Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Spartans and Wolverines

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Tigers at the break: Lets do some grading

A number of blogs have given their takes on the Tigers season thus far. One blogger, in particular, gave out individual player grades. A Manager's Lament is a newer blog about the Tigers by a well-informed baseball fan. Here are his grades for the team, pitchers and hitters.

What follows will be my take on individual players based on their role on our team and how the player compares to other players at their respective position...


Batters

Catchers

Gerald Laird: C+.
-Laird leads AL catchers in fewest attempted steals against per game, caught stealing percentage, and is tied for first in fewest throwing errors. He is only 4th in fielding percentage for catchers, but he should still be in the running for a gold glove this year. On the other hand, he has been below average this season offensively. For catchers with at least 200 PA's, he ranks 9th in wOBA, 10th in OPS, 9th in VORP, 9th in EQA, and tied for 8th in runs created. So, he has been very good defensively and below average offensively. WAR means less for catchers b/c it does not account for their defense. He ranks 9th in that stat. Overall, it has been a good trade that DD made when acquiring Laird. I value the defense/game calling a catcher can provide more so than any offense they can provide. So, instead of splitting the difference between good defense and good offense, I will give a slight nod to his D and give him a C+.

Dusty Ryan and Dane Sardihna: Inc
-These guys really have not played enough to grade them. Pineapple may be one of the worst hitters I have ever seen at the major league level, but he only played in 12 games. Ryan, meanwhile, needs to play more in the second half to ensure that Laird does not tire out.

Infielders

Miguel Cabrera- A-
-It has been the year of the 1st baseman this year in the AL. Morneau Teixeira, Branyan, Youkilis and Cabrera have all been outstanding. In most offensive statistics, Cabrera comes in 4th. He ranks 4th in wOBA, OPS, EQA, VORP, and tied for 5th in runs created. But, the differences in these statistics is miniscule and Cabrera could just as easily finish 1st in all of these stats at the end of the season. He also is improving everyday as a 1st baseman and will win a Gold Glove one day. In addition, his WAR of 2.7 is barely behind Youkilis' 3.1. He could easily become the top 1st baseman in the AL with a second half like he had last year. To make that happen, he might need to start hitting better in "cluctch" situations. He ranks in last place in that stat on Fan Graphs, and is just 11th in WPA. The Tigers will need him to come up big in these situations in the second half. B/c of that and b/c he is not a top 3 first baseman, he gets an A- with the potential to earn an A at seasons end.

Placido Polanco: C+
Polanco is turning in gold-glove caliber defense as he leads all of 2nd baseman in UZR, is 1st in the "clutch" stat offensively and is 7th in WAR. Overall, though, he has stuggled offensively. He is 11th in wOBA, 12th in OPS, 9th in runs created, and 12th in VORP. This season compares very favorably to what he turned in 2006. Like Laird, I will give him the benefit of the doubt b/c of his great and dependable defense. A C+.

Ramon Santiago: C-
-A backup like Santiago is always tough to grade. Do I grade him based on his role on the team? In that sense, he would grade higher than Everett and Polanco. On the other hand, there is a reason he is not trusted with more playing time. I am going to split the difference and give him a C-. He has been a negative defender this year, but he has made up for some of that with a good bat. An OPS above .750 is very good for a backup infielder. He is on pace for roughly 90-100 games. He's played well enough to warrant that playing time but has not provided the defense needed to supplant Everett or Polanco in the starting lineup.

Adam Everett: C
-Everett has always been an all-glove, no-bat type of player. He should have a couple Gold Gloves but is usually terrible with the bat. This season, he has surprised me with his bat and disappointed me somewhat with his glove. With that said, he has still been above average defensively and below average offensively. So, split the difference and we get a "C" for steady Everett. His UZR/150 of 4.5 is his worst since 2002 but SS is a very tough position. He still ranks 3rd in the AL for that stat. Offensively, he has been compared to other SS. He ranks 12th in VORP, 13th in runs created, 13th in wOBA, and 12th in OPS. Like Laird and Polanco, I will give him the benefit of the doubt and because he is a plus defender at a position that requires it, I will give him a C.

Brandon Inge: A
-Along with Edwin Jackson, his development this year has had the most impact on us becoming a contender in the AL Central. He has easily been the 2nd best 3rd baseman in the AL this season and should have been voted in the All Star game by the players. He ranks 3rd in the UZR/150 stat and second in WAR at 3.5. Not only has he provided gold glove defense but he has also been a force offensively. He ranks second in wOBA, OPS, runs created and slugging percentage and 1st in the "clutch" stat. He does rank 4th in EQA and 6th in VORP, but his overall offensive numbers may make him the 2nd best offensive 3rd baseman in the AL, thus far. Defensively, he has been on par with Adrian Beltre and Evan Longoria and Joe Crede. He has far outshined the defensive play of A-Rod, Michael Young, Chone Figgins and Scott Rolen. Truly a career season for Inge. He has struggled in the 2nd half in his career, but he performed better in the 2nd half during 2006. I see no reason why that cannot happen again.

Jeff Larish: Inc
-I've never been a fan of Larish. With Cabrera locked up for almost a decade, where does he fit in our future plans? A DH? Trade bait?

Outfielders

Magglio Ordonez: F
-Lets get this out of the way quickly. He is a negative defender who has the worst OPS of any RF in the AL. He has a WAR of -0.5. Technically, he should owe us money with that performance. Don't let him face a right handed pitcher again and keep him from hitting those incentives in his contract and I will be a happy man.

Curtis Granderson: B+
-In a weak year for CF in the AL, Grandy made his first All Star game in what is shaping up to be his worst season since 2006. Maybe he will never be able to have another season like 2007, but this year has been good in its own right. He is 3rd in WAR, and in UZR (although he is nowhere near Gutierrez or Upton defensively). Offensively, he is scrambled around in a lot of statistics but is probably 3rd overall behind Adam Jones and Torri Hunter. He is 5th in OPS, 4th in wOBA, 5th in SLG, 3rd in RC, and 4th in EQA. B/c it is a weak year overall for CF in the AL and he has taken a step back from both 2007 and 2008, I am going to give him a B+.

Josh Anderson: D
An OPS just north of .600 for a corner outfielder is downright awful. But, he has the highest UZR/150 of any OF on our team. Limit his at bats by a considerable amount and use him in just a defensive role and as a pinch runner, and that would be perfect. As it is, he is a terrible offensive player who's defense is just good enough to earn a passing grade.

Clete Thomas: B
-After being sent down to Toledo to work on shortening his swing, he has been on an absolute tear. Overall, this season, he has a .808 OPS and has been nails in the OF. His UZR of 6.0 in RF would project to 20.9 over 150 games. Along with Anderson, they have been great defensively as corner outfielders. B/c of him, Ordonez is finally in a platoon and has seen his at bats decreased. His offense has been a notch below Raburn's but his defense has been better and he has a higher WAR. He gets a B.


Ryan Raburn:B-
-For now, he is our everyday LF. I never thought I would say that. His OPS of .842 is better than Granderson's and he has been a plus fielder in LF. He also has the second highest WPA of all of our position players. He has been clutch, swinging a good bat and providing solid defense. Cannot ask for much more than that. As mentioned above, he gets a grade lower than Thomas.


Don Kelly: Inc
-A nice cup of coffee up here. Nothing more than that.

Marcus Thames: B-
-Basically, he has been our DH. And, he has been good. An OPS of .875 is great and a wOBA of .361 is nothing to sniff at. If not for early season injuries, his standard numbers would look much better. With that said, Thames is an interesting case. He actually had an OPS of .882 in 2006, so the potential is there for him to do it again. And, I don't think he has declined as a hitter. On the other hand, his BABIP of .305 is ridiculously high for him. As a result, his numbers should decline in the second half like they always do (post All Star break in his career, his OPS is .200 lower than pre All Star Break). I see him going into a platoon of sorts when Guillen comes back. For now, though, he gets a B-. We have needed his power and he has been a pretty good DH.

Pitchers

Starters

Justin Verlander: A
-The man, the myth, the legend. A guy who has the natural stuff to be the best pitcher in the game has finally taken the next step in his maturation process. The scary thing is, he should only get better this season and hopefully beyond. His 3.38 ERA does not even begin to describe the story. His K/9 rate of 10.96 is the best in baseball and his 2.70 FIP is tied for 4th in the game. His K/BB rate of 3.92 is 11th in baseball and easily the best of his career. Even better news? His BABIP of .333 should come down and his LOB % of 72.6 is nearly league average. He also has had the 6th worst defense behind him when he pitches. Considering how great our defense has been, that is incredibly unlucky for Verlander. Other than a history of struggling in the second half and wear and tear on his arm, there is nothing to suggest that his numbers will not improve in the second half. Other than Greinke and Hallday, he has been the best pitcher in the AL.

Edwin Jackson: A
-When the trade was initially made, I viewed Jackson as a reliable back of the rotation starter. And now, here we are. He has the 5th best ERA in the game and the best WHIP in the AL. Without him this year, we are not in first place at the break. And, his lack of run support has been well documented. Thus, his number of wins should be much higher. On the other hand, Jackson has been the beneficiary of some luck. His FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA and his BABIP of .254 is very low. His LOB % of 77.8 is also quite high. In addition, he has been the beneficiary of playing in front of the 3rd best defense on the day he pitches. So, his ERA will probably rise. But, even if it does, he will still have an ERA and the peripheral numbers of an ideal #2 starter. He and Verlander have been arguably the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball.

Rick Porcello: C-
-If I was grading him simply based on his performance as a 20 year old, he would have an A. His ERA is very similar to one posted by Clayton Kershaw last year as a 20 year old pitching for the Dodgers. On the other hand, this is the majors, and I am grading him in comparison to other major league starting pitchers. By that comparison, he is below average as a #3 starter. His FIP of 5.03 is something a #4 or #5 starter should have. His K/9, K/BB and WHIP and HR/9 numbers are all below average. B/c of the 4.14 ERA, I will give him a little break. If he could be counted on as a back of the rotation starter and if we acquired a reliable #3 starter then I would sleep a lot better at night (well, not really, but you get the point). Still, the kid is 20. The Golden Boy will only get better. He is something special.

Armando Galaragga: D
5.09 ERA and a 5.38 FIP with a below average K/BB, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and WHIP. Not good. Especially for someone we were counting on as a #2 or #3 starter this year. As a back of the rotation starter, I like what he can bring. He can eat innings. I like his build. He is a 3-pitch pitcher. But, he has to show it this year. Again, if we could bump him down to our #5 starting pitcher, then he would be performing in line with other #5 starting pitchers. We need to acquire another starter for that to happen, though. Until then, he needs to pitch better and drop his ERA by a half a run by the end of the year.

D-Train: F
-I hated the contract extension when Dombrowski gave it to him. Now? I look like a genius. Willis has 1 win in 2 years and will not pitch for the rest of the year for us. If it is truly an anxiety disorder that is causing his problems, then he can overcome it. I am rooting for him hard. He has one more year to carve out a niche on our team.


French/Figaro: Inc
-Still too early to judge either of them. I felt Figaro was overamatched and I think French can give us good innings out of that #5 starter slot. We will see if I am a genius or an idiot.

Relievers

Nate Robertson: F
-Lets get this out of the way. If I had this blog before this year, then everyone would have known that I was a big fan of Nate's. To me, he was the ideal back-of-the rotation starter and I likened him to Jarrod Washburn. I would have been a big supporter of his last year. And I would have thought he was on his way to a comeback this year in the bullpen. Now? I look like an idiot. My 3 year old nephew gets left handed batters out at the same rate he does. He might never pitch for the Tigers again. He pitched 21 games too many for us this year. Thanks for Gum Time, Nate.


Fernando Rodney: B
-Tough to grade. He has been lights out when it matters. 19/19 in save opportunities (with the loophole in the rule book), and a WPA of 1.77. On the other hand, he is not a Mariano Rivera, Papelbon, etc. He has a 4.12 FIP and a terrible K/BB ratio of 1.79. In non save situations, you need to hide the wife and children. During save situations, you can let them watch once he gets to two outs b/c he continues to deliver when he has too. Fernando Rodney has brought a sense of stability to our bullpen. I never, ever thought that I would say that. Hat tip to him.

Joel Zumaya: D
-He has the talent to be one of the best closers in the game. Problem is, here he is in his 4th season with us and he has not seized that role. He has the second worst WPA on the team for relievers, an FIP of 5.00 and a K/BB ratio of a miserable of 1.43. And, he is near the league lead in blown saves. He should not be the 8th inning guy. But, hey, he can throw it 100 MPH.

Bobby Seay: A
-Near the league lead in holds, a 2.57 FIP and he can throw strikes. He has been our best reliever and needs more innings. If he can't handle them, then you can take them away from him. But, he has earned the right to get the ball more. This has been his best season as a Tiger and he is starting to show why he was once a 1st round pick.

Brandon Lyon: D+
-Recently, he has been great. But, this is a grade for the whole season and he has barely been better than Zumaya, imo. He has the worst WPA on the team, and sports a terrible 1.33 K/BB ratio. His 4.86 FIP is better than Zumaya and he has been a lot more reliable lately. Hence, the better grade than Zumaya.

Zach Miner: C-
-A 4.36 FIP is decent, but the 4.56 BB/9 ratio, 1.68 WHIP and -0.41 WPA is not good at all. He will have several good outings and then one where he just flat struggles for some reason. Slightly better than Lyon this season and he got some spot starts.

Ryan Perry: D
-The somewhat controversial first round pick of last year has been in Toledo working on his slider and his command. His 1.25 K/BB ratio is Nate Robertson-like and his 1.65 WHIP is not good. He has probably been the worst right handed reliever we have had, but I will give him the benefit of the doubt b/c of age and being rushed to the majors. He gets the same grade as Zumaya.

Eddie Bonine, Clay Rapada, Juan Rincon, Ni, Dolsi: Inc
-Ni has been far and away the most impressive of this bunch. Rincon is no longer even with the organization. Rapada might be called back up in September.

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