Scouting the Minnesota Twins

The Twins enter play today 41-39 and just three games back of your first place Tigers. Thanks to Morneau and Mauer, it is likely that they will be a thorn in our side all season. Lets check the numbers in comparison to AL teams (first number) and to the Tigers (second number).

Offense
Batting Average- .269 (6th, 8th)
Runs- 379 (8th, 9th)
BB/K - 0.56 (4th, 11th)
OBP- .342 (7th, 10th)
SLG- .420 (9th, tied for 7th)
OPS-.762 (7th, 10th)
BABIP- .308 (3rd, 10th)
Runs Created- 383 (6th, 11th)
wOBA- .334 (8th, tied for 9th)
Batting value- 22.8 (7th, 9th)

-As you can tell, the Twins are pretty much a middle-of-the pack offensive team and is more efficient than the Tigers offense. They draw more walks, strikeout less, get on base more, have a better OPS and have created more runs. The Twins have four guys with an OPS above .800 (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel) and two other guys with an OPS above .700 (Brendan Harris and Denard Span). At the bottom of their order, though, they struggle even worse than we do as everyone else with 150+ at bats has an OPS below .625. We need to limit the damage the top of the order will do to us, and then feast on their poor batters at the bottom of the order.

Pitching
I am just going to concern myself with the relievers because I am going to break down their starters on an individual basis for each game. So, how about that Twins bullpen?

ERA- 3.82 (4th, 10th)
FIP- 4.54 (10th, 9th)
WHIP- 1.31 (4th, 10th)
BABIP- .278 (2nd, 7th)
K/9- 7.15 (10th, 11th)
BB/9- 3.57 (3rd, 12th)
K/BB- 2.00 (7th, 12th)
LOB %- 77.5 % (2nd, 10th)
HR/9- 1.18 (11th, 9th)

-So, the Twins again appear to have the better bullpen. They rarely walk batters, leave a high percentage of men on base and their WHIP and ERA are both in the top half of the league. If their is one glimmer of hope for their performance to fall off, it is that they do allow quite a few home runs, and their FIP is high with a low BABIP. Can they sustain that performance?

As usual, Joe Nathan is the rock in their bullpen. He has 21 saves with a 1.44 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 1.95 FIP, and a sick K/BB ratio of 6.50. He does have 2 blown saves but he should still be an All Star this season. Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and R.A. Dickey all have 20+ appearances and ERA's under 3. The back end of their bullpen, though, can be had against guys like Jesse Crain and Craig Breslow. But, the front end of their bullpen is very, very good.

Defense
Perhaps surprisingly, the Twins defense has not been that good this year. Their combined UZR of -11.3 ranks 20th in MLB. On the other hand, the Tigers rank third in that stat with a UZR of +27.1. SS Brendan Harris, and CF Carlos Gomez are plus defenders, 3B Joe Crede might be a Gold Glove winner, and LF Denard Span might be one someday, as well. But, their other 4 positional players are below average defensively. With that said, Joe Mauer is great defensively and there is no stat that really shows that.

-Overall, the Tigers are 1-4 against the Twins this year and this is an important series, imo. Will it define our season? Of course not. But winning this series could propel us into the second half of the season with some much needed confidence. Bill disagrees with me, and Lee offers a unique look at the Twins-Tigers comparisons.