A statistical look at the Lions, Tigers, Pistons, Red Wings, Spartans and Wolverines

Monday, July 20, 2009

Dumars going against the "NBA way" again

Since Magic and Larry Bird have entered the NBA, superstars have ruled the league. In fact, they haven't just ruled the league they are so big that they make other 1 name stars like Prince, Cher and Madonna wince. Magic, Bird, Kareem, MJ, Shaq, Kobe and Duncan have been the names synonymous with NBA titles in the last 30ish years. Other stars like Dr. J and Moses Malone or Isiah Thomas or Hakeem or Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce have also snuck in and won a title or two. But, the prevailing philosophy has always been: get the supersar, build around that superstar and get that said superstar a great complementary player and you have the recipe for a championship contending team.

Joe Dumars does not buy into that logic. At least, none of his actions as the GM for the Pistons for nearly a decade suggests that he does. Instead of getting a superstar player, he built the championship team in 2004 around the "5 beats 2" model. In other words, a great starting 5 will beat a superstar and a great complementary player. And, for one season, he was absolutely right. On the way to building that team, he made one of the greatest free agent signings in recent NBA history with the signing of Chauncey Billups, fleeced some guy named Michael Jordan in the Jerry Stackhouse-Rip Hamilton deal, made a great draft pick with the selection of Tayshaun Prince, picked up Ben Wallace in a sign and trade for Grant Hill and watched him become the best defensive player in the game, and acquired a Hall-of-Fame talent in Rasheed Wallace for a bag of popcorn and a breath mint. He also fired Rick Carlisle and hired a vagabond coach and one of the truly great teachers of the game in Larry Brown. And with that, he created a core that would be a top 5 team in the game for 6 straight seasons and an NBA champion in 2004. Critics be damned, Joe D. proved that he could go against conventional wisdom and still win an NBA title.

I don't want to make it seem like Joe D. was perfect or anything prior to the start of that run. He had failed failed draft picks (Mateen Cleaves and Rodney White) and allowed Michael Curry to stick around on the team for too long. But, he was damn near perfect. Since 2004, much of his work has been spotty, at best. The free agent signing of Antonio McDyess was a great one. Letting Ben Wallace walk away to the Bulls by not matching their offer was also a good move. Drafting Rodney Stuckey may turn out to be a good pick. He also acquired a guy who looked like Fabio and who doesn't like that? Other than that, though, he has left much to be desired since the end of the 2003 season. The Darko pick prevented the Pistons from adding Hall of Fame wing players like Carmelo Anthony or Wade or an ideal complementary big man like Chris Bosh. The pick of Carlos Delfino prevented the Pistons from acquiring an elite scoring SF off the bench like Josh Howard or another big man like Kendrick Perkins. Joe D. also never adequately replaced Ben Wallace (Nazr Mohammed, Chris Webber and Kwame Brown?) and never found a competent backup to Prince/a good wing player off the bench (Fabio, Maurice Evans and Flip Murray come to mind as failed options). Needless to say, his drafts since 2003 have also been disappointing, as Stuckey is the only impact player he has drafted in that time frame.

With all that said, Joe D. has earned the right to rebuild this team and he is looking to correct 4-5 years of poor moves by going back to a familiar model: the "5 beats 2" model, as I like to call it. Dumars is banking on Rodney Stuckey to become the modern day Chauncey Billups and become the leader of this team. Can John Kuester, a Larry Brown disciple, turn Stuckey from a potential combo scoring guard like Chauncey was into an elite NBA PG like Chauncey became? Joe D. is obviously hoping lightening strikes twice. He is hoping that Ben Gordon develops into what Rip Hamilton was/still is: a dependable scorer who can get you 20 a night and be a prime-time scorer and shooter in the clutch. He is also hoping that Charlie Villanueva becomes the good Rasheed Wallace. You know, the one with Hall of Fame talent who featured one of the best post up moves in the game, could stretch the defense with the threat of the 3, and play solid one-on-one defense down low while cleaning up the glass. In essence, Joe D. has 3 pieces of his puzzle and needs 2 more. He will try to get those with the eventual trading of Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince and possibly the development of Austin Daye. Dumars probably sees Daye as a better offensive and worse defensive version of Prince. A 6'9"-6'10" beanpole with a metabolism that makes nearly every other American jealous, and a jack-of-all trades player who can handle the rock and break people down off the dribble. If Daye does become that player, then he would become piece #4 in Joe D's mad concoction of a championship contending team. Piece #5 could come with the trading of Rip or Tay or possibly both for a defensive stalwart at the center position. Then, with that, Joe D., in his mind, would have re-created the 2004 team as close as he possibly could in today's NBA.

Could lightening strike twice? Could Joe D. really be that smart that he would outwit 29 other GM's again? We'll see. It should be a bumpy ride along the way but it will all be worth it if it ends up being fun in the end.

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