Game 79 preview: French vs. Slowey

Kevin Slowely looks to become the AL's first 11 game winner and prove once again why wins is an overrated stat. Nonetheless, he is 3-0 against the Tigers with a 4.57 ERA so he gets the job done against us. For the year, he has a 4.41 ERA, 4.14 FIP, and a near-league average WHIP of 1.40. The most impressive thing about Slowey is that he basically does not walk people. His 1.54 BB/9 rate is outstanding and so is his K/BB rate of 4.73. He allows home runs at a decent clip with a HR/9 rate of 1.44. What is perhaps most interesting of all is his absurdly high BABIP of .348. I have to think that will drop and by the end of the year his ERA will probably be around 4.00. Basically, he is an innings eater (on pace to throw nearly 180 innings) and would be a very good #3 starter on a championship team.

His GB/FB ratio of 0.69 suggests that he is a flyball pitcher. In fact, 47.2% of batted balls against him are fly balls. About 20% are line drives. And, about 10% of those fly balls will end up being a HR, so that is something to watch tonight with some of our flyball hitters (hello, Mr. Thames and Granderson).

Slowey will not strike many people out, and his lack of velocity would suggest that. His fastball averages about 89 MPH. His pitch selection in and of itself is quite interesting. He uses a fastball-type pitch 69% of the time and then three other pitches that he uses no more than 13% and no less than 8.5% of the time. The slider, changeup and curveball are his next favorite pitches but there is a chance that he could use each of them equally. Fan Graphs suggests that his best pitch is his fastball, and that his three other pitches are not plus pitches. One other thing that should be pointed out is that he throws a first pitch strike 68% of the time. The league average is 58%. He will lull you to sleep with how good of command he has.

On the plus side, 3 of his last 4 starts have been a little shaky. He has allowed at least 3 ER in those 3 starts and did not make it past the sixth inning in any of his last 4 starts. As far as his splits go, lefties hit very well against him with a .349/.390/.538 stat line. We should hit some lefties tonight against him (Granderson, Kelly and Santiago, please). As far as our team goes, he is the type of pitcher we struggle the most with. We have a worse OPS+ against finesse pitchers than against power hitters, and a worse OPS+ against fly ball pitchers than against ground ball pitchers. Slowey is a finesse, fly ball pitcher.

As far as the Twins are concerned, they do struggle a little bit more with left handed pitchers (Jason Kubel, in particular, is terrible against left handed pitching). On the other hand, they do their best against finesse pitchers, which is what French will provide for them. So, it could be a little give and take tonight for French. I already broke down French's numbers in this post, and I think he has the potential to be a serviceable starter for us. Facing off against Morneau or Mauer, he had better be.

For a break down of French's limited stay with the Tigers so far, Fire Jim Leyland provides some good info.

UPDATE: No Ordonez tonight. And, unlike what he did against Brett Anderson, Leyland is listening to the stats tonight an is batting 4 lefties against Slowey.

1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Marcus Thames, DH
5. Don Kelly, LF
6. Brandon Inge, 3B
7. Josh Anderson, RF
8. Gerald Laird, C
9. Ramon Santiago, SS