Game 93 preview: Tigers look to take series against Mariners

After a tough loss last night, the Tigers are getting back to work this afternoon against Jarrod Washburn and the Seattle Mariners.

Washburn has always been a guy I have enjoyed watching pitch and is the sort of pitcher that I hoped Nate Robertson would develop into. This season he has a 2.87 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in what appears to be a career season for him. Historically, he has had only one season where he had a FIP below 4 and is basically an ideal back of the rotation starter. He is a lefty, eats a lot of innings and is dependable for a 4.5 ERA or so. His peripheral numbers this year, at 34 years of age, is some of the best of his career. However, they do suggest that he should be due for a fall in the second half of this season. Washburn has a 3.77 FIP (nearly a run higher than his ERA), a low BABIP of .259 and a high LOB % of 78.2. If those numbers revert back to his career averages then his ERA should rise roughly a run in the second half of this season.

As usual, Washburn does not strike out many and does not walk many batters. His K/BB ratio of 2.12 is respectable. His GB/FB ratio of 0.93 suggests that we may see a little more flyballs today. For his career, he has a 0.81 GB/FB ratio. What type of pitches does he do to induce both flyballs and groundballs? According to Fan Graphs, he is the rare pitcher who actually incorporates 5 pitches. He throws his 88 to 89 MPH fastball nearly 60% of the time, and then mixes in a slider, cutter, changeup and curveball. His fastball, slider and curveball have been his best pitches this season and they have been the majority of his career.

As of late, Washburn has been great. He has a 1.82 ERA in July and a 2.81 ERA in June. In his last 10 starts, he has gone at least 6 innings in every start and has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 8 of those starts.

As for what to expect today, we should see a right handed heavy lineup. Right handed batters have an OPS nearly .200 above what left handed batters do against him. Inge and Thames, in particular, have been great against Washburn. They each have an OPS above 1.000 against in over 15 at bats.

Luke French is going for us today. Thus far, he has been a provided some nice stability in the back of our rotation. In his 3 starts, he has a 2.25 ERA in 16 IP. He has allowed 17 hits and 6 BB while striking out 8 batters. Thus far, he has been almost exclusively a flyball pitcher. He has 43 flyball outs compared to 14 groundball outs.

While his ERA looks good, it is a small sample size and his peripheral numbers have not looked that promising. His FIP is 4.68 and his LOB % is above 90. Needless to say, his ERA should go up substantially based on those numbers alone. However, if/when it does, that is ok. We just need French to solidify that #5 spot in our rotation and give us 6 or so innings while keeping the ER to 3 or below in each start.

Like Washburn, French is a soft tossing lefty. His fastball averages 87-88 MPH, and he has been a 3 pitch pitcher this season with a fastball, a plus slider and a 75-76 MPH changeup.

As for today, Seattle has never seen him so the batters are unfamiliar with him in live action. Right handed batters hit for an OPS of .805 against French, and lefties hit for an OPS of .499. B/c of that, Seattle should field their best right handed hitting lineup. If anything, this matchup may bode well for French. Seattle's two best hitters (Branyan and Ichiro) are both left handed. If he can keep those splits against lefties up, he could minimize the potential damage that guys like Branyan, Ichiro, Griffey Jr. and Hanahan might provide.

Provided that the rain does not come, game time is at 1:05. Early word is that Inge is going to play. I would expect Laird to sit today in favor of Dusty Ryan.