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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Hossa signs with Chicago

According to TSN, Hossa is a Blackhawk. The deal is a $5.2 million cap hit for 12 years. I will be back shortly with a post about where this leaves the Blackhawks. In short, they are in cap hell.

UPDATE:

First, they took Scotty Bowman. Now, they take Marian Hossa and Tomas Kopecky? If nothing else, this rivalry is back and it is on. First, lets examine Chicago's roster and what this means for them both in the short term and long term.

Short term

Here is the current salary cap situation for Chicago. So, they had roughly $13 million more to give out but they have locked up Dave Bolland to a $3.375 million deal per year and Kopecky got $1.2 million and those deals are not included in that data. So, they have roughly $8 million in cap space left and they need 2 to 3 more forwards, 1 more defenseman and another goalie. Cam Barker will be re-signed for roughly $3 million a year or a little more. He is a high-end offensive talent and a former top prospect. Then, their "D" is set. Versteeg scored 53 points last year, is a top 6 forward and should get a deal like Bolland got. That will leave roughly $2 million or a little less for Troy Brouwer (26 points last year) to round out the forward lineup. I imagine they will just promote a goalie from the minor leagues up to fill out their roster. So, here is what I come up with, courtesy of capgeek.com...

2009-2010 Chicago Blackhawks
FORWARDS
Marian Hossa $5,200,000
Patrick Sharp $3,900,000
Patrick Kane $3,725,000
* Kris Versteeg $3,500,000
Dave Bolland $3,375,000
Dustin Byfuglien $3,000,000
Jonathan Toews $2,800,000
Andrew Ladd $1,550,000
* Troy Brouwer $1,500,000
Jack Skille $1,275,000
Tomas Kopecky $1,200,000
Adam Burish $712,500
DEFENSEMEN
Brian Campbell $7,142,875
Brent Seabrook $3,500,000
* Cam Barker $3,250,000
Brent Sopel $2,333,333
Duncan Keith $1,475,000
Niklas Hjalmarsson $643,333
Jordan Hendry $625,000
GOALTENDERS
Cristobal Huet $5,625,000
Antti Niemi $892,500
BUYOUTS
Curtis Brown$456,000
LOST VIA REENTRY WAIVERS
NONE
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (including bonuses)
ROSTER SIZE21
SALARY CAP$56,800,000
PAYROLL$57,680,541
BONUS MONEY (ESTIMATED)(9.2% of cap) $5,225,000
CAP ROOM$-880,541
CAP ROOM PER OPEN SPOT$0

-They would be slightly over the cap, but look for them to move Sopel and clear his salary off the books, then. Basically, for this year, they will be a much better team with the acquisition of Hossa. Lets not kid ourselves. Hossa is a 40 goal scorer and will stay that way for a few more years, at least. Kane, Toews, Versteeg, Bolland, Ladd, etc. are all young and are all going to get better. Their forwards, imo, have the potenetial to be better than our forwards. But, I still do not Campbell or Barker in their top 4 on D and Huet is not a good goalie. I still think we can take them as long as Huet plays like he has in the past. Still, this does make Chicago a much bigger threat to us than they were the other day.

Long Term
-
Honestly? They are in complete cap hell unless some idiot GM wants to take Huet and/or Brian Campbell off their hands. The cap is supposed to go down a couple million next year, and may fall to as low as $50 million. If the cap does fall to $50 million, they would have $15 million spend. The problem is, Kane and Toews are $5-6 million a year guys and their contracts each come up next year. Duncan Keith is a $5-6 million a year defenseman and his contract is up next summer. There is your salary cap space right there. Andrew Ladd is a $3 million a year forward. His contract is up next year. Jack Skille was a top prospect for them and should get $2 million or so. His contract is up next year. Niklas Hjalmarsson is a defenseman who can play in most teams top 4 and he is 22. He will command $3 million a year or so. His contract is up next year. The year after that, Brent Seabrook will command $6 million and Dustin Bfyuglein will be worth $3.5 million. A lot of their young and promising players will be gone. Signing Hossa could mean losing a Pat Kane or Duncan Keith.

Is it worth it? Hossa is going to be 31 years old next year. Let me throw out this stat for you. Of the top 10 goal scorers this year in the NHL, Hossa was the oldest at the age of 30. Of the top 20 goal scorers, there are only two players 30 and above: Hossa and Iginla. And, Iginla is 31. Further, of the 39 players who scored 30 or more goals this year, only 5 are 30 or older (Hossa, Iginla, Pavel, St. Louis, and Doan). This is mostly a young man's game. There are always exceptions, like Sakic enjoying 3 of his best seasons after he hit 30, and Alfreddson and Selanne each enjoying several productive years after hitting 30. Based on history, though, Hossa's production is going to start to slip off here pretty soon. To invest another long-term contract in a forward nearing the end of his prime could kill them in the long-term. In the short term, they may be a better team. But, they are going to lose couple of players who are about to enter their primes for a guy who is entering the tail end of his. Doesn't make much sense to me.

-As far as Hossa goes, I have no ill will towards him. Based on the reports, he got an extra $20-25 million a year for going to the Hawks. We knew this was a one year deal, and once we lost the Cup I just assumed that his desire to stay would be diminished. I wish he would have went somewhere else, but I say bring him on. He should ask guys like Sergei Fedorov and Martin Lapointe how they did once they left the Wings for more money.

-And, as for Kopecky... I always thought he had some untapped potential. And, he is a big body. But, they overpaid for him as a way to get Hossa. If he stays healthy long enough to make an impact in the playoffs, then more power to him.

-But, if it was not official already, it is now. This rivalry has been reborn. And, last time I checked they still have Joel Quennville as their coach. I'm not worried.

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