Know the enemy: Vicente Padilla

Vicente Padilla has the Swine flu and is pitching tonight. Obviously, it must not be an extreme case or else he would not be pitching. So, I wish him well with his health and on to the breakdown of his pitching performances this season...

Padilla is a 6'2" 220 pound right handed pitcher whose play has been fairly consistent since 2003. The 32 year old has had an FIP between 4.25 and 5.25 in every single season. This season has been no exception. He has a 4.67 ERA that is very representative of his abilities and a 4.48 FIP. Like Tommy Hunter last night, Padilla should not strike us out too much. Whether or not that will be the case remains to be seen. He has a K/9 ratio of just 4.86. His K/BB ratio of 1.33 leaves much to be desired. Based on the ERA, FIP and other peripheral numbers for the majority of his career and in this season, Padilla is essentially a #4 starter.

Padilla is a groundball pitcher with a 1.58 GB/FB ratio. He is also almost exclusively a fastball pitcher. He throws his 91-92 MPH fastball nearly 75% of the time. After that pitch, he throws a mixture of a slider and a curveball. As you might expect, his fastball is a plus pitch for him. Like Hunter, and as mentioned above, Padilla pitches to a lot of contact. Inside the strike zone, an opposing batter will make contact with his pitch nearly 92 % of the time. That is roughly 3% above league average. So, we should be putting the bat on the ball quite a bit tonight.

As for what to expect tonight...Padilla has traditional splits. Right handed batters only hit for an OPS of .601 against him. On the other hand, lefties hit for an OPS of .883 against him. Guillen, Grandy and Thomas should all be in the lineup tonight. Ramon Santiago is a plus fastball hitter and is also a lefty so he may see a spot in the lineup ahead of Adam Everett tonight. Also, in his last 7 starts, Padilla has gone at least 5 innings. However, he is prone to some bad outings. Two of his last 3 starts has seen him rocked for 5 ER. So, we may be catching him at the right time. B/c he is an extreme fastball pitcher, Miguel Cabrera should have a very favorable matchup. Brandon Inge, Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago are also plus fastball hitters, and Marcus Thames especially feasts on groundball pitchers. Overall, Padilla does not match up well with our offense. I hate to predict an offensive explosion tonight for us but the numbers indicate that that could be the case.